The economy is just like a wound, it needs to sting before it gets better.

Mortgage payments are expensive because every upward price pressure is there--demand, taxes, and insurance. The national market is about to be as balanced as it has been since maybe 2018/2019. It's almost hitting 5 mos of inventory nationally, when it was as low as less than 1.5 months when rates were tanked five years ago.

The market is sorting itslef out, as it should. Constantly pulling the rate levers has only lead to worst housing affordability. We're addicted to cheap debt.

Rates apply to more than just the end consumer mortgage regarding housing. Cheap rates help create a lot of supply.

Land deals require financing, land dev is financed, and vertical construction is financed. Higher rates slow the supply side way more than low rates spurge demand.

Mohamed El-Erian (Obama guy) is on Fox News just brutalizing Jerome Powell's hind end.

Said if Jerome Powell was a CEO he would have been fired for all the mistakes he has made. He also says Powell is and has always been late,

He also supports Bessent and a couple of others as replacements.

Powell may be gone sooner rather than later.

flown-the-coop said:

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Rates apply to more than just the end consumer mortgage regarding housing. Cheap rates help create a lot of supply.

Land deals require financing, land dev is financed, and vertical construction is financed. Higher rates slow the supply side way more than low rates spurge demand.

---

Real estate is a fart in the wind compared to the bond market and the private credit market.

If they target lower short term rates, long rates are going to go up because the obvious intention of our government to keep spending like idiots and finance using lower rate short term debt.

Lower government spending should be the target to influence 10 treasury year rates (read that as mortgage rates if you want) lower. Not lower short term rates.

Supply is supply. What I'm reading is, new construction is too addicted to cheap debt.

We can have different ideas of what a "healthy" balanced market can look like, and maybe I'm too libertarian to care about builders kicking and screaming that they need access to cheaper rates to save the housing market but, the numbers are there. It's becoming more balanced.

Leave it alone, let it sort itself out, the job market is healthy and over time new construction will adjust. Constant rate manipulation has consequences.

flown-the-coop said:

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Mohamed El-Erian (Obama guy) is on Fox News just brutalizing Jerome Powell's hind end.

Said if Jerome Powell was a CEO he would have been fired for all the mistakes he has made. He also says Powell is and has always been late,

He also supports Bessent and a couple of others as replacements.

Powell may be gone sooner rather than later.

---

He's not wrong.

I find being insulted in person really opens my mind up to the offender's point of view.

Especially repeated insults, in case the previous ten didn't work.

Trump's obsession that rates should be 300 bps lower than today is comical. Artificially manipulated low rates are what has caused a lot of our current economic challenges. Today's rates are not high by historical standards. They're slightly under the long term median.

The key word missing in the rate discussion is "balance." Rates should be low enough that they are not constraining solid economic growth, but also high enough that they cause people to think twice about taking on debt and also provide a fair reward for people dependent on savings (retirees, etc.)

96AgGrad said:

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I find being insulted in person really opens my mind up to the offender's point of view.

Especially repeated insults, in case the previous ten didn't work.

---

Trump isn't calling him out in the hopes that the embarrassment will get him to change course.

He's doing it in order to build a public case against the guy, because the truth is 90% of the people in this country have no idea who he is.

And whether or not you like the tactic, it works.

MemphisAg1 said:

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Trump's obsession that rates should be 300 bps lower than today is comical. Artificially manipulated low rates are what has caused a lot of our current economic challenges. Today's rates are not high by historical standards. They're slightly under the long term median.

The key word missing in the rate discussion is "balance." Rates should be low enough that they are not constraining solid economic growth, but also high enough that they cause people to think twice about taking on debt and also provide a fair reward for people dependent on savings (retirees, etc.)

---

You have to take an honest look at what grows when rates are supressed at such low levels.

Wework, Carvana, Peloton, Doordash, Affirm... none of those places exist if they had to provide actual value creation to the extent that it could service a reasonable debt rate.

If your business can't survive with rates in the 5 - 7% range, it's probably not a very good business.

I think low rates do an extreme disservice to our productive economy over time.

Agree. I'm with Powell on this. Current rates are normal. Inflation is still above target, and the labor market is in solid shape... that's a recipe for holding rates or potentially even tweaking them upwards if you thought inflation was going to be persistent.

There's no rational reason for cutting rates sharply except that Trump wants to accelerate growth to some point where he can claim some kind of victory on it, and to hell with inflation and all the super-inflated valuations that come with it, not to mention the poor old retirees who are trying to eke out a little return on their savings.

I'm not sure that qualifies as building a case. Mostly it seems like an attempt at public embarrassment.

If Trump really feels Powell is failing at his duties he can fire him at will. Apparently he's scared to pull that trigger, so he slings mud instead.

96AgGrad said:

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I'm not sure that qualifies as building a case. Mostly it seems like an attempt at public embarrassment.

If Trump really feels Powell is failing at his duties he can fire him at will. Apparently he's scared to pull that trigger, so he slings mud instead.

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I believe the consensus is that he CANNOT fire him at will.

Again, I would point to the Obama guy going on Fox, today of all days, to lay into Powell hard and with the same criticism that Team Trump has been screaming.

With 6 months or less of Powell, the markets will begin factoring in the "new guy's" philosophy even before that.

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump is OPENLY GRILLING Jerome Powell to his face at the Federal Reserve Building in DC

This comes after Trump found out the total for the renovations are actually $3.1 BILLION

“What are all these overruns about?!"

Holy CRAP this is an amazing watch 🤣 pic.twitter.com/Dh4ltIXF6p

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) July 24, 2025

Listened to Brett Baier interview with Kevin Warsh the probable next FED chairman and he comes across as a home run hire for Trump.

Rates are where they should be. Trump will get his cut in September.

What about on other planets?

aggiehawg said:

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🚨 BREAKING: President Trump is OPENLY GRILLING Jerome Powell to his face at the Federal Reserve Building in DC

This comes after Trump found out the total for the renovations are actually $3.1 BILLION

“What are all these overruns about?!"

Holy CRAP this is an amazing watch 🤣 pic.twitter.com/Dh4ltIXF6p

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) July 24, 2025

---

Idiot Trump talking about a building that was completed five years ago. Not quote the "gotcha" his lemmings think it is.

I think Nick Sorter is a Lib pretending to be MAGA to make it look bad.

I Am A Critic said:

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aggiehawg said:

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🚨 BREAKING: President Trump is OPENLY GRILLING Jerome Powell to his face at the Federal Reserve Building in DC

This comes after Trump found out the total for the renovations are actually $3.1 BILLION

“What are all these overruns about?!"

Holy CRAP this is an amazing watch 🤣 pic.twitter.com/Dh4ltIXF6p

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) July 24, 2025

---

Idiot Trump talking about a building that was completed five years ago. Not quote the "gotcha" his lemmings think it is.

---

Actually Trump is correct. That building is part of the overall FED project that has been going on since his first administration and it's part of the project that was initially budgeted at $1.9 billion, has surged to an estimated cost of $3.1 billion. That other building is the Martin Building that the renovation was completed five years ago. The current renovations that are still in the works are the Marriner S. Eccles Building and 1951 Constitution Ave building. Go look at the paperwork on the FED website it's all there. Powell is claiming it's overrun is only $2.9 billion instead of the $3.1 billion, even at the 2.9 it's a billion dollars over the AFE.

flown-the-coop said:

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Rates apply to more than just the end consumer mortgage regarding housing. Cheap rates help create a lot of supply.

Land deals require financing, land dev is financed, and vertical construction is financed. Higher rates slow the supply side way more than low rates spurge demand.

---

Should rates be cut 3 points like Trump is asking for?

Aggie1205 said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Rates apply to more than just the end consumer mortgage regarding housing. Cheap rates help create a lot of supply.

Land deals require financing, land dev is financed, and vertical construction is financed. Higher rates slow the supply side way more than low rates spurge demand.

---

Should rates be cut 3 points like Trump is asking for?

---

Kevin Warsh said if he is appointed he will cut them a half point day one. He said the current prime rate is 7.50%. It last changed on December 19, 2024 and is way overdue for a rate drop. To listen to his philosophy three points is not out of the question but you doing do that all at once. One half point drop saves us 600 billion a year on the debt alone according to Lutnick.

People talking about Congress cutting spending are funny, Republicans don't even have a large enough majority

Aggie1205 said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Rates apply to more than just the end consumer mortgage regarding housing. Cheap rates help create a lot of supply.

Land deals require financing, land dev is financed, and vertical construction is financed. Higher rates slow the supply side way more than low rates spurge demand.

---

Should rates be cut 3 points like Trump is asking for?

---

If you want inflation cut rates, but if you want an economic slow down raise rates

MemphisAg1 said:

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Agree. I'm with Powell on this. Current rates are normal. Inflation is still above target, and the labor market is in solid shape... that's a recipe for holding rates or potentially even tweaking them upwards if you thought inflation was going to be persistent.

There's no rational reason for cutting rates sharply except that Trump wants to accelerate growth to some point where he can claim some kind of victory on it, and to hell with inflation and all the super-inflated valuations that come with it, not to mention the poor old retirees who are trying to eke out a little return on their savings.

---

This is where I'm at.

If Republicans had a larger majority, spending would be even worse.

aggiehawg said:

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🚨 BREAKING: President Trump is OPENLY GRILLING Jerome Powell to his face at the Federal Reserve Building in DC

This comes after Trump found out the total for the renovations are actually $3.1 BILLION

“What are all these overruns about?!"

Holy CRAP this is an amazing watch 🤣 pic.twitter.com/Dh4ltIXF6p

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) July 24, 2025

---

Quote:"What are all these overruns about?"

short answer: grift

I am going to admit an error here so I will pause for screenshots and the like.

I happened to have spent the evening with someone who has spent time with Powell and his predecessors including Yellen and Bernanke. To surprise of no one, o asked "what the **** is wrong with Powell? Is he a commie, f'ed in the head, never trumped?".

Evidently Powell is a very relatable guy. He just tends to hold his cards in his sleeve. So let's say Trump wants to cut 300 basis points. Powell knows the market could take 400. But that spends all the dry powder, reserve ammo should a pandemic befall us or war breaks out or Kayne West starts global intifada.

Powell is very restrained, to a fault by some including me, of keeping too much powder dry and losing the fight.

Had not really considered this aspect of Powell but sometimes if helps to get a personal read. It points to why Powell was likely highly recommended to Trump. Yellen talked to no one and Bernanke evidently knew he was the smartest guy in the room.

I don't retract my criticism of Powell as I still think he is always too late and too little. He comes from a different, more restrained era.

That's it. You can disregard what I wrote if all you want to do is "yea, you know a guy". But yea, I do know a guy.

-mfbarnes according to haterz

No screenshots, that was actually a stand up post.

I'm a three time Trump voter but happen to believe he's pushing for all the marbles on the table when it's not warranted. It's just not. I think Powell is trying to do his job as best he thinks is appropriate. It's possible he's off by a few degrees but not to the 300 basis points that Trump wants. And frankly with inflation still above target and the labor market still resilient, cuts really aren't warranted yet.

I hope something else that's not a war or disaster -- maybe humorous -- comes along to consume Trump's attention and dial this down a few notches.

The words were "if I cut 200bps, then what if something happens like a catastrophic event? Then I only have 200bs to work with".

Read that as Trump understands he has 400 to work with, he just needs to know when to call in the chips.

Yeah, it's like if I've got $50k in a savings account for bad things, then I've got $50k. But I don't want to blow it just because I suddenly get the urge for a first class round trip to Italy for a couple weeks.

Trump is at his heart an RE developer. If you ever met one, they are spend spend spend, leverage will sort itself.

I don't necessarily agree it's great for the Country, but it helps explain his fiscal policy.

If if and butts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas.

Why did Powell cuts 50 basis points last September then?

He thought he had 50 to spend. I am not opining on whether he is correct, just giving some real life perspective.