DCAggie13y said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/adp-jobs-report-june-2025.html
"To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May's soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week."
Wouldn't put much stock in this report. Not considered reliable.
ADP is much more accurate.
ADP uses actual real payroll information from their clients.
The BLS report is voluntary and has declining participation rates for the last decade or so. So you have a smaller and smaller active sample that is then extrapolated across a larger unknown pool of potential results.
The only time the BLS surveys are correct is when companies are statutorily required to report on headcounts.
The reason the ADP report has a spotty track record of predicting the subsequent government jobs report is because the subsequent government jobs report is usually full of BS.
ETA: Before you highlight the fact that "investors tend to weigh (the BLS numbers) more heavily"...This is because that is what moves that Federal Reserve and ultimately investors should be more concerned about Fed stimulus than they are truth in employment numbers based on our current market structure. It's a game theory function of common knowledge - everyone knows the BLS number influences the Fed and everyone knows that everyone knows that the BLS number influences the Fed. Therefore, it's more often traded upon than the ADP figures...accuracy be damned.
