https://www.tiktok.com/@gilc1967/video/7524420428266261774

Here is the River Angels song by Don Johnson. You'll need Kleenex.

jopatura said:

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The problem at Camp Mystic is that they thought they were safe with their elevation. The cabins along the back of the camp had a hill they could scurry up. The four cabins in the middle - Wiggle, Giggle, Bubble, Twins - had nowhere to go because they had to cross the creek or river to get to higher ground. Wiggle & Giggle had A-frame roofs. Bubble & Twins did not.

But the approved evacuation plan had always been to leave Wiggle, Giggle, Bubble, and Twins in the cabins thinking it would be safe. Practicing it would have been useless in this situation.

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I can't believe this was the actual evacuation plan when those cabins were known to be in the floodway. Just absolutely insane. They should have moved them after 2011 once that became known.

jopatura said:

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The problem at Camp Mystic is that they thought they were safe with their elevation. The cabins along the back of the camp had a hill they could scurry up. The four cabins in the middle - Wiggle, Giggle, Bubble, Twins - had nowhere to go because they had to cross the creek or river to get to higher ground. Wiggle & Giggle had A-frame roofs. Bubble & Twins did not.

But the approved evacuation plan had always been to leave Wiggle, Giggle, Bubble, and Twins in the cabins thinking it would be safe. Practicing it would have been useless in this situation.

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I hope this is untrue. The attorneys circling the situation are about to start feeding.

jopatura said:

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The problem at Camp Mystic is that they thought they were safe with their elevation. The cabins along the back of the camp had a hill they could scurry up. The four cabins in the middle - Wiggle, Giggle, Bubble, Twins - had nowhere to go because they had to cross the creek or river to get to higher ground. Wiggle & Giggle had A-frame roofs. Bubble & Twins did not.

But the approved evacuation plan had always been to leave Wiggle, Giggle, Bubble, and Twins in the cabins thinking it would be safe. Practicing it would have been useless in this situation.

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How is staying in your cabin an evacuation plan??

Because a lot of evacuation plans in child care are about sheltering in place during the event, then working with authorities after the fact to safely evacuate the children.

in part because it would be dangerous to evacuate with young children if the water is already 2 to 3 feet high

From what I've read these cabins are on a hill and floodwaters have never reached anywhere near them before…

Now, the flood map I've seen though… I'm wondering how they didn't plan for the possibility that these cabins could flood even if they never have before

But I understand also not wanting to wake up and move a bunch of kids if it's not even gonna come close… and it never has before (allegedly) and it rose way faster than anyone could react appropriately…

jopatura said:

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Because a lot of evacuation plans in child care are about sheltering in place during the event, then working with authorities after the fact to safely evacuate the children.

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In a floodway??

EclipseAg said:

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swimmerbabe11 said:

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nothing happened to us and everyone was "annoyed" that we did "all that" "for nothing"

it only takes a few of those for people to stop following protocol or assuming drill or whatever.

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Yep.

Imagine the protocol and effort required to wake up 700 campers in the middle of the night and haul them up to high ground.

If you ABSOLUTELY KNEW a horrible, deadly flood was on its way, then of course it's worth it. But how many times would you go through all that if nothing happened the first few times? Especially given the dangers of trying to evacuate large numbers of people.

Sometimes things happen outside of human control.

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I agree, and disagree.

If you were camping on the beach in Port Aransas and a hurricane watch was issued for Port Aransas, would you wait until landfall and then make a move, or leave right away? Of course most people would be evacuating even before the hurricane watch was issued, but that is not the point I am trying to make.

When a flood watch is issued for Kerr County, the headwaters of the Guadalupe River and one of if the most dangerous river in the country with regards to flash flooding, you make your move to higher ground and safety. You don't wait until the water starts rising, especially if you are in the flood plain or close to the flood plain or your evacuation route goes through the flood plain.

I know, hindsight is 20/20, and yes I know a hurricane isn't the same as a flash flood

From working with the Corps what you describe is very common with long time landowners. A new map or map revision is published detailing limits of floodways/floodplains and they'll rely on their memory or memory of parents/grandparents to evaluate flood risk.

Doesn't work that way, will never work that way. My guess is they (Camp owners) had seen some sizable floods over the years and it appeared those cabins were relatively safe, and couldn't comprehend what would happen in a true Q100 type event and developed their plan based on that, rather than the published FEMA flood map.

It makes sense. It's just tragic no one forced them to revise the plan based on these maps - assuming everyone had access to them

Teslag said:

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From working with the Corps what you describe is very common with long time landowners. A new map or map revision is published detailing limits of floodways/floodplains and they'll rely on their memory or memory of parents/grandparents to evaluate flood risk.

Doesn't work that way, will never work that way. My guess is they (Camp owners) had seen some sizable floods over the years and it appeared those cabins were relatively safe, and couldn't comprehend what would happen in a true Q100 type event and developed their plan based on that, rather than the published FEMA flood map.

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sadly yeah that is probably a contributing factor. It has never been this high before so we will be safe here mentality.

with current technology I don't see why you couldn't take the all-time highest water level, and add 5 or 10 feet or whatever for buffer, then overlay that on a topographic map, to determine what areas are safe and what areas might be in potential danger

redcrayon said:

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jopatura said:

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Because a lot of evacuation plans in child care are about sheltering in place during the event, then working with authorities after the fact to safely evacuate the children.

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In a floodway??

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Yes, licensing would have given them an elevation that must be evacuated in a flood. Clearly, that was lower than the rec hall where about 1/2-1/3 cabins went around 2am. Some of the cabins along the back stayed in their cabins, then survived by swimming to the cliff/hill behind them.

Now what I don't know, and we may not know for awhile, is if the camp would have been required to have a different new plan with the new flood maps if they were brand new in 2025 and didn't because they were grandfathered in.

That's basically what goes into the map. This particular current map has an established base flood elevation set. What that mean in laymen's terms is the flood levels of the entire river channel are digitally modeled by HEC-RAS by set sections. Contributing runoff from adjacent streams, tributaries, etc are factored in as they impact each section. Then limits of flood can be modeled by topography. It can be extremely accurate.

They had the information necessary to create a workable plan. They also had the information necessary to know they should have moved those cabins years ago.

The current flood map was dated 2011.

Right but the camp was 99 years old. In 2011, if the whole camp was basically unusable because of the flood maps, the camp likely was given a variance by licensing because of their age. It's also equally possible that licensing doesn't update their calculations with the new flood maps because of grandfathering.

That's just it. Most of the camp wasn't in it. They had ample area to move them.

justnobody79 said:

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EclipseAg said:

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swimmerbabe11 said:

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nothing happened to us and everyone was "annoyed" that we did "all that" "for nothing"

it only takes a few of those for people to stop following protocol or assuming drill or whatever.

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Yep.

Imagine the protocol and effort required to wake up 700 campers in the middle of the night and haul them up to high ground.

If you ABSOLUTELY KNEW a horrible, deadly flood was on its way, then of course it's worth it. But how many times would you go through all that if nothing happened the first few times? Especially given the dangers of trying to evacuate large numbers of people.

Sometimes things happen outside of human control.

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I agree, and disagree.

If you were camping on the beach in Port Aransas and a hurricane watch was issued for Port Aransas, would you wait until landfall and then make a move, or leave right away? Of course most people would be evacuating even before the hurricane watch was issued, but that is not the point I am trying to make.

When a flood watch is issued for Kerr County, the headwaters of the Guadalupe River and one of if the most dangerous river in the country with regards to flash flooding, you make your move to higher ground and safety. You don't wait until the water starts rising, especially if you are in the flood plain or close to the flood plain or your evacuation route goes through the flood plain.

I know, hindsight is 20/20, and yes I know a hurricane isn't the same as a flash flood

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That's a good analogy.

I am not familiar with flooding and flood warnings in that area. Are they issued judiciously? That is to say - would these people be moving/evacuating multiple times a year?
Or would it be something they would be so used to seeing, they just keep an eye on it?

What did the pre-2011 map look like?

Teslag said:

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jopatura said:

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The problem at Camp Mystic is that they thought they were safe with their elevation. The cabins along the back of the camp had a hill they could scurry up. The four cabins in the middle - Wiggle, Giggle, Bubble, Twins - had nowhere to go because they had to cross the creek or river to get to higher ground. Wiggle & Giggle had A-frame roofs. Bubble & Twins did not.

But the approved evacuation plan had always been to leave Wiggle, Giggle, Bubble, and Twins in the cabins thinking it would be safe. Practicing it would have been useless in this situation.

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I can't believe this was the actual evacuation plan when those cabins were known to be in the floodway. Just absolutely insane. They should have moved them after 2011 once that became known.

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This was a state approved plan as well.

jopatura said:

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What did the pre-2011 map look like?

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I don't believe there was one.

So much hindsight being thrown around. Someone in the business of flood mapping knows its not a matter of if a place is going to flood, its when.

The event is preliminarily being called between a 100 and 500 year storm.

TRM said:

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Teslag said:

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jopatura said:

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The problem at Camp Mystic is that they thought they were safe with their elevation. The cabins along the back of the camp had a hill they could scurry up. The four cabins in the middle - Wiggle, Giggle, Bubble, Twins - had nowhere to go because they had to cross the creek or river to get to higher ground. Wiggle & Giggle had A-frame roofs. Bubble & Twins did not.

But the approved evacuation plan had always been to leave Wiggle, Giggle, Bubble, and Twins in the cabins thinking it would be safe. Practicing it would have been useless in this situation.

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I can't believe this was the actual evacuation plan when those cabins were known to be in the floodway. Just absolutely insane. They should have moved them after 2011 once that became known.

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This was a state approved plan as well.

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state approved with inspection on the ground.

FM 949 said:

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So much hindsight being thrown around.

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Well that's kind of how it works right? We identify failures, correct them, and hope our fix prevents reoccurrence.

The camp was inspected two days before the flood, on 7/2. I have no idea what entity does this inspection but it passed. So it was not just some old timers guessing that all was good.

I believe it's the state health department. Probably inspect everything from food safety to emergency response. Not sure how detailed they analyze the disaster planning other than checking a box that one is in place. Could be more than that but I don't know. But just saying there was an inspection does not mean the plan was sound.

FM 949 said:

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So much hindsight being thrown around. Someone in the business of flood mapping knows its not a matter of if a place is going to flood, its when.

The event is preliminarily being called between a 100 and 500 year storm.

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Just hoping we can identify weaknesses and prevent more deaths. Hindsight is how we learn.

Not suggesting that, I'm just saying that it wasn't just a decision made by the old timers down at The Green Frog Cafe. Obviously It was not enough but there was a plan.

Ours is Department of Health and Human Services under the child care department. The plan has to be pretty detailed, but the biggest flaw is knowing when to execute. What defines an emergency is really left up to the provider in real time.

Do you know if the inspection criteria for emergency planning varies by camp or is it a standard checklist? Basically is the inspection the same for a camp on a river as it is for one on a constant level reservoir?

I would assume standard checklist. A lot of it deals with more with knowing what kids you have, how to contact a parent/guardian, how to keep the kids together, what places you can gather with the kids. Like there's binder of information we have to have, there's bug out bags we have to keep with certain supplies and additional set of camper info (mostly first aid related, not like life jackets). Counselors have to be able to recite first name, last name, oldest and youngest, and number of campers in their charge on demand.

It's less about "leave under X condition, stay under Y condition" if that makes sense. It's also location driven for the most part so the camp may have even given them the elevation they were comfortable sheltering kids. We're 6 miles away from the closest body of water, so our flood plan is solely around sheltering in place and no one has ever said differently.

Just made an account as I have been lurking and I wanted to clarify something.

Mystic went through a process with FEMA in 2013 to take their buildings out of a floodplain because they were built on foundations. A surveyor goes out and measures the distance from the ground floor to the floodplain. Here's a link to the document. I don't know why I could find this but it isn't being reported in national or local media.

https://map1.msc.fema.gov/data/48/L/14-06-0124A-480419.pdf?LOC=03e7a058cff367b902241de73e8a1b86

Two observations.....

Why would a summer camp for kids have been built at the convergence of a major river and two creeks to start with?

Why would the youngest group of kids be housed in the cabins at the lowest elevation?

AF2011 said:

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From what I've read these cabins are on a hill and floodwaters have never reached anywhere near them before…

Now, the flood map I've seen though… I'm wondering how they didn't plan for the possibility that these cabins could flood even if they never have before

But I understand also not wanting to wake up and move a bunch of kids if it's not even gonna come close… and it never has before (allegedly) and it rose way faster than anyone could react appropriately…

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Flood maps are updated. These were older structures built before the structures were in them.

Rattler12 said:

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Two observations.....

Why would a summer camp for kids have been built at the convergence of a major river and two creeks to start with?

Why would the youngest group of kids be housed in the cabins at the lowest elevation?

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1. Are you asking why a camp would be in nature and by a cool water feature?
2. Because those cabins were closest to the kitchen and other buildings. You dont want little kids walking far distances usually.