The alternative is that US government has to run a balanced budget that pays as it goes. If congress wants to spend more then taxes/tariffs have to go up or you have to cut other programs.

Banks will fail, people and businesses will lose money and go bankrupt-and they will suffer the consequences instead of the US taxpayers. Bad choices will hurt instead of being rewarded. Banks will have to revert back to banking by making and holding good loans vs. the current model where they orignate mortgage/loans repackage them as CDOs and pass them along to purchasers of fixed income. It will result in the popping of bubbles - higher education, medical office buildings/hospitals, sports stadiums, school admin buildings, and sprawling single family neighborhoods of credit card millionaires, and the big one "tech/AI".

There will be a recession, probably prolonged while the turds are flushed, potentially some violent vigilante justice. That is how you save the country.

The alternative is punting and at some point in the future losing control of sovereignty and freedom, both as nation and individuals, because the owners of the $37T in debt are going to make a call on their interest and collateral before an attempt is made to hyperinflate it away.

I don't trust the fed to sort out and restructure the problems of their own making, and neither should you.

flown-the-coop said:

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Can you lay out how the train derails and the specific impacts it will have? Gut entitlements. The bottom 35% will suffer.

I always the the horse farm around the discussions doing nothing nut nay-ing about the debt sky falling.

But no one ever can conceptualize how this all comes crashing down.

Does the US go into receivership at the hands of the UN or international courts? Are we split up and sold to China, Iran, Russia? Will Sotheby's auction the monuments in Washington? Sell the artwork in the White House that Trump is so fond of? 1929 style collapse and depression. Hyperinflation like South America. I am not sure. But if the medicine is just gutting entitlements, it is worth it.

Exactly what penalty are the grandchildren going to pay? Socialism.

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Fair enough. I am all for restraining government spending, full accountability for government spending, a budget that is balanced or a budget that may not be balanced fully but is engineered for growth, and we should both pay down but restructure the national debt. Interest paid to foreign holders of US Debt should be suspended or reduced by any amount they have been provided in US assistance, be it monetary or military. Interest paid to federal institutions holding US debt should be eliminated. It's completely illogical to borrow money from yourself and pay yourself interest.

And then you also can grow yourself out of the deficit and debt burden. This is oft either ignored or discounted. I do not recall the exact numbers but Laffer was discussing just a small increase in GDP growth could have trillions of positive impact on deficit. Now, I admit he is a hawk on the impacts of economic growth, but this does tend to happen. Unfortunately, we often just increased spending anything numbers came in better than projected.

They're both right. Trump wants to control the national debt. Low rates and inflation are great for the government. Trump is running the government like business. Powell wants to crush inflation and leave some room for adjustments down if we have a deep recession.

I agree with Powell on this one. He may or may not be holding the line for political reasons but rates are still historically low and fighting a recession without interest rate cuts as a tool is dangerous territory.

BREAKING: In a stunning moment, Fed Chair Jerome Powell just said that the Fed would have cut interest rates if not for Trump’s tariffs. Trump’s tariffs are to blame for rising costs. This is why Trump is trying to fire him. We can’t let that happen. pic.twitter.com/pVcA8v7XwE

— Democratic Wins Media (@DemocraticWins) July 13, 2025

Worth the 78 seconds of your life to listen to his answer...

Interesting video by Gammon

He's quoting directly from the Federal Reserve documents on the procedures on how the US Treasury can monetize the gold on the books (approximately 680 million oz).

It's not some crazy ass conspiracy Quantum Financial system BS.

He references the actual documents.

He's not saying this is going to happen. Just showing how it could be used to help reduce rates on the debt by revaluing the price of gold.

Easy watch.....

Prediction market is now trending hard towards 2.5% YoY for June. They were 75% >= 2.6% until today.

wait....

In that vid dated July 13th, Powell said they expect some significant inflation to show up from tariffs.

I hope he's not fired because if Trump gets his goofball in there, we are screwed on inflation!

Adobe Digital Price Index Torpedoes Democrats' Inflationary Tariff Storm Propaganda  https://t.co/Xs8v82zMbz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 14, 2025

Buy more bitcoin, the dollar and the rest of the world currencies will collapse. The elites already know and have been loading up.

Tom Fox said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Signel said:

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Its like we never learned why inflation keeps growing.... lets pass a bigger budget than Biden's!

It is astounding how bad both sides are at trying to get their way at wasting money we don't have.

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When stopping the train leads to it derailing and killing you, the only solution is to keep it going by any means necessary and hope it doesn't derail in your lifetime.

That's the ultimate motivation for everyone associated with FED and government. The current crop are a product of an already broken system. There will be no attempts to slow down or stop the march towards the cliff. Attempting it is political suicide.

We keep going until we fail.

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Not a good strategy when your grandchildren and then their offspring are tied to the train tracks up ahead. Sometimes your generation has to be the ones to make the sacrifice.

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100% agree. But the majority of politicians and majority of people putting them office either don't agree or are ignorantly of history. So the train keeps going.

flown-the-coop said:

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Can you lay out how the train derails and the specific impacts it will have?

I always the the horse farm around the discussions doing nothing nut nay-ing about the debt sky falling.

But no one ever can conceptualize how this all comes crashing down.

Does the US go into receivership at the hands of the UN or international courts? Are we split up and sold to China, Iran, Russia? Will Sotheby's auction the monuments in Washington? Sell the artwork in the White House that Trump is so fond of?

Exactly what penalty are the grandchildren going to pay?

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I've answered this many times over the past couple of years. Do a search.

Krombopulos Michael said:

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Interesting video by Gammon

He's quoting directly from the Federal Reserve documents on the procedures on how the US Treasury can monetize the gold on the books (approximately 680 million oz).

It's not some crazy ass conspiracy Quantum Financial system BS.

He references the actual documents.

He's not saying this is going to happen. Just showing how it could be used to help reduce rates on the debt by revaluing the price of gold.

Easy watch.....

---

Interesting take, but still ends in a doom loop. And why $20000 gold? Why not just call it $140K per troy oz and be done with the national debt?

Well Trump is wrong if he thinks a large rate cut by the Fed will help with financing the US debt, unless Trump intends to do it all at the short end of the interest rate curve. Powell only directly affects short term rates. In fact, long rates rose the last time he cut.

The only way out of this mess, if there is a way, is yield curve control like what was implemented after WW2. Cut short rates , raise inflation targets and have the Fed buy bonds on the long end of the curve to suppress long rates. But given Powell's animosity towards Trump, that won't happen until he is replaced.

Logos Stick said:

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wait....

In that vid dated July 13th, Powell said they expect some significant inflation to show up from tariffs.

I hope he's not fired because if Trump gets his goofball in there, we are screwed on inflation!

---

Tariffs are not inflationary. Shows how utterly ******ed Powell is. Evidently his earpiece from Soros is still functioning.

Tom Fox said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Signel said:

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Its like we never learned why inflation keeps growing.... lets pass a bigger budget than Biden's!

It is astounding how bad both sides are at trying to get their way at wasting money we don't have.

---

When stopping the train leads to it derailing and killing you, the only solution is to keep it going by any means necessary and hope it doesn't derail in your lifetime.

That's the ultimate motivation for everyone associated with FED and government. The current crop are a product of an already broken system. There will be no attempts to slow down or stop the march towards the cliff. Attempting it is political suicide.

We keep going until we fail.

---

Not a good strategy when your grandchildren and then their offspring are tied to the train tracks up ahead. Sometimes your generation has to be the ones to make the sacrifice.

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Agreed. We are allowed to vote against driving off the cliff.

flown-the-coop said:

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Logos Stick said:

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wait....

In that vid dated July 13th, Powell said they expect some significant inflation to show up from tariffs.

I hope he's not fired because if Trump gets his goofball in there, we are screwed on inflation!

---

Tariffs are not inflationary. Shows how utterly ******ed Powell is. Evidently his earpiece from Soros is still functioning.

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The whole Fed system is ****ed! Powell and that board should not have that kind of unfettered power.

Tariffs are absolutely inflationary. Anybody who says otherwise is ignorant of economics.

Tariffs increase prices, which lowers quantity of goods supplied which increases the currency/goods ratio. By DEFINITION that is inflationary.


That doesn't mean Powell is not an idiot. He's a Keynesian, so he's an idiot by nature. But on this one thing he lucked into being correct.

flown-the-coop said:

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Logos Stick said:

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wait....

In that vid dated July 13th, Powell said they expect some significant inflation to show up from tariffs.

I hope he's not fired because if Trump gets his goofball in there, we are screwed on inflation!

---

Tariffs are not inflationary. Shows how utterly ******ed Powell is. Evidently his earpiece from Soros is still functioning.

---

LOL.

And Goldman Sachs is also in bed with Soros and ******ed too, right?

Goldman Sachs Forecast
- Core CPI: +0.23% m/m (below 0.3% consensus).
- Core services inflation: +0.26% m/m.
- Tariffs add +8bps, mainly in household goods, recreational/communication items.
- Outlook: Tariffs to push core inflation up in H2 2025; 3.1% YoY core CPI by December.

Goldman is about as corrupt as the day is long.

Might as well get the Lehman Bros out of the dirt and see if they have an opinion on how Trumps tariffs are going to bring us straight into a depression.

Too funny.

Quote:

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[color=#000000]Interesting take, but still ends in a doom loop. And why $20000 gold? Why not just call it $140K per troy oz and be done with the national debt?[/color]

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Can't go to $140K, because of faith, confidence and narrative.

People would completely freak out if gold went from $3300 to $140K overnight. Not to mention absolutely tearing the faces off the gold and silver shorts.

Go from $3300 to $20K is a big move BUT can be explained away with narrative control.

Picture Trump coming out and showing results of the "audit" of Fort Knox "We have the gold, we are going to use it to buy down our debt". $20K/oz opens up about $5 trillion on the books to bring the Debt to GDP into the 70% range. It buys time for Trump to refinance short term debt, implement tariff policies, and set up the Stable Coin system.

Its very unlikely to happen however as Gammon points out, its a procedure thats is on the books waiting for someone to pull the trigger if necessary.


As an example of why it won't happen......This is your silver shorts market, If gold went to $20K silver is going to tag along at $200/oz (at current 100:1 silver to gold ratio) it would be $2000/oz with historic 10:1.

The financial institutions (mega banks like JP Morgan, Wells, BoA, Citi etc) who hold the silver shorts would die a very quick and painful death.

Silver swap dealers are short a net 55k contracts, meaning they lose $275 million for every dollar #silver goes up. Perhaps this explains why "somebody" sold 483 million ounces in a single hour.

Full report: https://t.co/M0mPkXvRQn pic.twitter.com/5Pwbeau3k3

— Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) July 14, 2025

The 5200 Acres said:

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Well Trump is wrong if he thinks a large rate cut by the Fed will help with financing the US debt, unless Trump intends to do it all at the short end of the interest rate curve. Powell only directly affects short term rates. In fact, long rates rose the last time he cut.

The only way out of this mess, if there is a way, is yield curve control like what was implemented after WW2. Cut short rates , raise inflation targets and have the Fed buy bonds on the long end of the curve to suppress long rates. But given Powell's animosity towards Trump, that won't happen until he is replaced.

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Ya, go ahead and post what inflation looked like for the next 3 decades after they did that.

aTmAg said:

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Tariffs are absolutely inflationary. Anybody who says otherwise is ignorant of economics.

Tariffs increase prices, which lowers quantity of goods supplied which increases the currency/goods ratio. By DEFINITION that is inflationary.


That doesn't mean Powell is not an idiot. He's a Keynesian, so he's an idiot by nature. But on this one thing he lucked into being correct.

---

Tariffs ultimately lead to less demand unless coupled with a money supply increase. Tariffs are short-term inflationary only and ALWAYS end in deflation, as lower demand leads to someone along the chain eating the cost in the long run.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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aTmAg said:

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Tariffs are absolutely inflationary. Anybody who says otherwise is ignorant of economics.

Tariffs increase prices, which lowers quantity of goods supplied which increases the currency/goods ratio. By DEFINITION that is inflationary.


That doesn't mean Powell is not an idiot. He's a Keynesian, so he's an idiot by nature. But on this one thing he lucked into being correct.

---

Tariffs ultimately lead to less demand unless coupled with a money supply increase. Tariffs are short-term inflationary only and ALWAYS end in deflation, as lower demand leads to someone along the chain eating the cost in the long run.

---

Doesn't your way of looking at this assume product choice? We are looking at high tariffs across the board. There wont be cheaper non tariff alternatives

jamey said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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aTmAg said:

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Tariffs are absolutely inflationary. Anybody who says otherwise is ignorant of economics.

Tariffs increase prices, which lowers quantity of goods supplied which increases the currency/goods ratio. By DEFINITION that is inflationary.


That doesn't mean Powell is not an idiot. He's a Keynesian, so he's an idiot by nature. But on this one thing he lucked into being correct.

---

Tariffs ultimately lead to less demand unless coupled with a money supply increase. Tariffs are short-term inflationary only and ALWAYS end in deflation, as lower demand leads to someone along the chain eating the cost in the long run.

---

Doesn't your way of looking at this assume product choice? We are looking at high tariffs across the board. There wont be cheaper non tariff alternatives

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Precisely. Without an expansion of money supply, its the same money chasing the same goods. If price goes up, demand drops. If demand drops, the importer/producer starts to eat the cost and pull back on imports. When imports pull back, the exporter starts to eat cost on their end to stimulate demand. equillibrium is ultimately struck with demand and price in the same place as where you started, and the exporting country eating the majority of the sustained tariffs.

And if the money supply does expand, then its the money supply that's inflationary, not the tariffs.

One trick pony Trump.....

BREAKING: President Trump posts a statement after CPI inflation rose to 2.7% this morning:

“Consumer Prices LOW. Bring down the Fed Rate, NOW!!!” pic.twitter.com/16UuZklqP2

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 15, 2025

"Consumer prices low".... LOL

Heineken-Ashi said:

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jamey said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

aTmAg said:

---

Tariffs are absolutely inflationary. Anybody who says otherwise is ignorant of economics.

Tariffs increase prices, which lowers quantity of goods supplied which increases the currency/goods ratio. By DEFINITION that is inflationary.


That doesn't mean Powell is not an idiot. He's a Keynesian, so he's an idiot by nature. But on this one thing he lucked into being correct.

---

Tariffs ultimately lead to less demand unless coupled with a money supply increase. Tariffs are short-term inflationary only and ALWAYS end in deflation, as lower demand leads to someone along the chain eating the cost in the long run.

---

Doesn't your way of looking at this assume product choice? We are looking at high tariffs across the board. There wont be cheaper non tariff alternatives

---

Precisely. Without an expansion of money supply, its the same money chasing the same goods. If price goes up, demand drops. If demand drops, the importer/producer starts to eat the cost and pull back on imports. When imports pull back, the exporter starts to eat cost on their end to stimulate demand. equillibrium is ultimately struck with demand and price in the same place as where you started, and the exporting country eating the majority of the sustained tariffs.

And if the money supply does expand, then its the money supply that's inflationary, not the tariffs.

---

But we are talking tariffs that are right at profit margins, or well above profit margins in the case of everyone currently looking at 30% or higher tariffs

US companies (our 401Ks) and or consumers have to eat some. Theres nowhere to hide tariffs this high, across the board

CPI Up to 2.7% from 2.4% in May which was also up from 2.3% in April. Now trending closer to 3.0% than the Feds targeted 2.0%

I suspect this trend continues as companies slowly raise prices as they watch the day to day chaos coming out of the white house on tariffs. They won't eat it forever

Trump wants low rates so he can justify refinancing the current short-term debt obligations and increase spending. It's a Ponzi scheme, and our kids and grand kids will be ones holding the bag

tysker said:

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Trump wants low rates so he can justify refinancing the current short-term debt obligations and increase spending. It's a Ponzi scheme, and our kids and grand kids WE will be ones holding the bag before the end of the 2025

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FIFY, this system is derailing sooner than most can comprehend

Protecting the pedos (in govt and finance) was the last straw....... Trust is lost.

tysker said:

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Trump wants low rates so he can justify refinancing the current short-term debt obligations and increase spending. It's a Ponzi scheme, and our kids and grand kids will be ones holding the bag

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Say only 50% of the US is smart enough to realize this


We can vote against it and win enough seats to stop Thelma(D) and Louise(R) before they run off the cliff with our kids in the backseat

How can Trump claim prices are low when they are trending well over the target inflation rate and this after several years of inflation rates waaaaay over target inflation rates?

halfastros81 said:

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How can Trump claim prices are low when they are trending well over the target inflation rate and this after several years of inflation rates waaaaay over target inflation rates?

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Because he lies all the time. Fiscally he's a big spender, debt and tariff loving liberal.

halfastros81 said:

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How can Trump claim prices are low when they are trending well over the target inflation rate and this after several years of inflation rates waaaaay over target inflation rates?

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He's probably using the mean MoM rate so far this year and annualizing it, which means we end up with 2.5% inflation yead end for 2025, down from 2024, but still too high. I think we end up at 3%+

No doubt he's fiscally liberal altho what he wants to spend on is generally much more positive for Americans than what the leftists want to spend on but it's so easy to refute the claim that prices are low . My position remains this is no time to lower interest rates.