Consumers likely to absorb 2/3 of tariff impact

6,920 Views | 103 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by BigRobSA
Frok
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Prosperdick said:

KerrAg76 said:

Possibly. But other scenarios exist as well, weaker competitors move up the supply chain, cottage industries develop and grow quickly and of course stronger companies become more vertical internally developing US based suppliers….it ain't just about passing on costs




I'm pro-Trump but I'm always skeptical of reports like this. It sure doesn't feel that way in the O&G market.
Matt Hooper
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Agree.

Singular example:
Recently purchased a foreign made auto/suv (manufactured UK). Priced the order out before tariffs announced.
Manufacturer suspended shipping to US for a month. Once shipping resumed, order was completed. Same price. Not tariff charge.


Hooper Drives the Boat
JohnClark929
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90% of the tariffs haven't been implemented yet. So all of you lying about cheaper groceries should at least wait for that, then lie about cheaper groceries.
sharpdressedman
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MemphisAg1 said:

According to Goldman Sachs,

Where I stopped reading.
BigRobSA
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Matt Hooper said:

Agree.

Singular example:
Recently purchased a foreign made auto/suv (manufactured UK). Priced the order out before tariffs announced.
Manufacturer suspended shipping to US for a month. Once shipping resumed, order was completed. Same price. Not tariff charge.




Ewwwwwwww




Sorry for your loss.
HowdyTAMU
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A tariff is a tax. Companies do not pay taxes. Consumers do.

The difference between a tariff and a tax is only in their intent. A tariff is generally designed to aid that country's businesses or government.

What is there to discuss?
Silent For Too Long
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HowdyTAMU said:

A tariff is a tax. Companies do not pay taxes. Consumers do.

The difference between a tariff and a tax is only in their intent. A tariff is generally designed to aid that country's businesses or government.

What is there to discuss?


This oversimplification is silly and inaccurate.

If you ask anyone who actually is in charge of supply acquisition they will tell you that both suppliers and manufacturers are absorbing some of the cost to keep prices down.
Burpelson
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But, but, but the other countries, oh well
docb
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All those tariffs are going to do is make stuff cost more. That's it. Just have to see where the price increases get absorbed. If it eventually gets kicked back to being made in the USA that will cost more too due to higher operating costs.
KerrAg76
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Silent For Too Long said:

HowdyTAMU said:

A tariff is a tax. Companies do not pay taxes. Consumers do.

The difference between a tariff and a tax is only in their intent. A tariff is generally designed to aid that country's businesses or government.

What is there to discuss?


This oversimplification is silly and inaccurate.

If you ask anyone who actually is in charge of supply acquisition they will tell you that both suppliers and manufacturers are absorbing some of the cost to keep prices down.


BINGO!! Because many products purchased are consumer choice. Supply chains will be disrupted and alternative methods developed. Companies and people adapt.
Matt Hooper
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So far so good. But it's only been a few months.

My wife shares your opinion. So it may be a short ownership period for simplicity.


Hooper Drives the Boat
YouBet
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Matt Hooper said:

So far so good. But it's only been a few months.

My wife shares your opinion. So it may be a short ownership period for simplicity.





I was going to add that the real tariff on cars from UK are the repair costs.
AggieMD95
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Tariffs are a moving target until all the deals are in place. Pretty much pointless to speculate right now.
AggieMD95
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docb said:

All those tariffs are going to do is make stuff cost more. That's it. Just have to see where the price increases get absorbed. If it eventually gets kicked back to being made in the USA that will cost more too due to higher operating costs.



So you are saying that tariffs literally have no other effect at all ? Nothing at all happens? Price adjustment but markets and trade practices all stay exactly the same ?
No Spin Ag
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KerrAg76 said:

Silent For Too Long said:

HowdyTAMU said:

A tariff is a tax. Companies do not pay taxes. Consumers do.

The difference between a tariff and a tax is only in their intent. A tariff is generally designed to aid that country's businesses or government.

What is there to discuss?


This oversimplification is silly and inaccurate.

If you ask anyone who actually is in charge of supply acquisition they will tell you that both suppliers and manufacturers are absorbing some of the cost to keep prices down.


BINGO!! Because many products purchased are consumer choice. Supply chains will be disrupted and alternative methods developed. Companies and people adapt.

But will consumers still have to pay more for the same goods they've been purchasing for all the years previous?
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
docb
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AggieMD95 said:

docb said:

All those tariffs are going to do is make stuff cost more. That's it. Just have to see where the price increases get absorbed. If it eventually gets kicked back to being made in the USA that will cost more too due to higher operating costs.



So you are saying that tariffs literally have no other effect at all ? Nothing at all happens? Price adjustment but markets and trade practices all stay exactly the same ?


Do you own your own business? I've already been hit with global trade adjustment fees that amount to several hundred dollars each time. Explain how that's working for me?
Logos Stick
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Silent For Too Long said:

HowdyTAMU said:

A tariff is a tax. Companies do not pay taxes. Consumers do.

The difference between a tariff and a tax is only in their intent. A tariff is generally designed to aid that country's businesses or government.

What is there to discuss?


This oversimplification is silly and inaccurate.

If you ask anyone who actually is in charge of supply acquisition they will tell you that both suppliers and manufacturers are absorbing some of the cost to keep prices down.


Those suppliers and manufacturers are hurting their employees and shareholders then. I doubt it is happening with the intent to absorb cost. Regardless, it will not last. Trump has been all over the map with the numbers and timeline. It's more likely that folks are looking for some stability first to know where to set price points so they can hit their margins.
Science Denier
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No Spin Ag said:

KerrAg76 said:

Silent For Too Long said:

HowdyTAMU said:

A tariff is a tax. Companies do not pay taxes. Consumers do.

The difference between a tariff and a tax is only in their intent. A tariff is generally designed to aid that country's businesses or government.

What is there to discuss?


This oversimplification is silly and inaccurate.

If you ask anyone who actually is in charge of supply acquisition they will tell you that both suppliers and manufacturers are absorbing some of the cost to keep prices down.


BINGO!! Because many products purchased are consumer choice. Supply chains will be disrupted and alternative methods developed. Companies and people adapt.

But will consumers still have to pay more for the same goods they've been purchasing for all the years previous?


If we pay 1-2 percent more, but collect a ton in tariffs, that's a huge benefit. And, if due to the trillions in new investment makes wages go up more than that inflation it's even a bigger win.

Last month, the tariffs alone had us collect more revenue than we paid in expenses.

If China, Canada and Mexico can claw us a good portion of the way out of our debt, an added 1-2 percent tax is fine.

But we have not seen any tariff inflation yet.
LOL OLD
No Spin Ag
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Science Denier said:

No Spin Ag said:

KerrAg76 said:

Silent For Too Long said:

HowdyTAMU said:

A tariff is a tax. Companies do not pay taxes. Consumers do.

The difference between a tariff and a tax is only in their intent. A tariff is generally designed to aid that country's businesses or government.

What is there to discuss?


This oversimplification is silly and inaccurate.

If you ask anyone who actually is in charge of supply acquisition they will tell you that both suppliers and manufacturers are absorbing some of the cost to keep prices down.


BINGO!! Because many products purchased are consumer choice. Supply chains will be disrupted and alternative methods developed. Companies and people adapt.

But will consumers still have to pay more for the same goods they've been purchasing for all the years previous?


If we pay 1-2 percent more, but collect a ton in tariffs, that's a huge benefit. And, if due to the trillions in new investment makes wages go up more than that inflation it's even a bigger win.

Last month, the tariffs alone had us collect more revenue than we paid in expenses.

If China, Canada and Mexico can claw us a good portion of the way out of our debt, an added 1-2 percent tax is fine.

But we have not seen any tariff inflation yet.

So, more along the lines of JFK's "...but what you can do for America," meets, "For the greater good," yes?



There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
KerrAg76
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No Spin Ag said:

KerrAg76 said:

Silent For Too Long said:

HowdyTAMU said:

A tariff is a tax. Companies do not pay taxes. Consumers do.

The difference between a tariff and a tax is only in their intent. A tariff is generally designed to aid that country's businesses or government.

What is there to discuss?


This oversimplification is silly and inaccurate.

If you ask anyone who actually is in charge of supply acquisition they will tell you that both suppliers and manufacturers are absorbing some of the cost to keep prices down.


BINGO!! Because many products purchased are consumer choice. Supply chains will be disrupted and alternative methods developed. Companies and people adapt.

But will consumers still have to pay more for the same goods they've been purchasing for all the years previous?


Like I said previously…. Possibly. But other scenarios exist as well, weaker competitors move up the supply chain, cottage industries develop and grow quickly and of course stronger companies become more vertical internally developing US based suppliers….it ain't just about passing on costs
Science Denier
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No Spin Ag said:

Science Denier said:

No Spin Ag said:

KerrAg76 said:

Silent For Too Long said:

HowdyTAMU said:

A tariff is a tax. Companies do not pay taxes. Consumers do.

The difference between a tariff and a tax is only in their intent. A tariff is generally designed to aid that country's businesses or government.

What is there to discuss?


This oversimplification is silly and inaccurate.

If you ask anyone who actually is in charge of supply acquisition they will tell you that both suppliers and manufacturers are absorbing some of the cost to keep prices down.


BINGO!! Because many products purchased are consumer choice. Supply chains will be disrupted and alternative methods developed. Companies and people adapt.

But will consumers still have to pay more for the same goods they've been purchasing for all the years previous?


If we pay 1-2 percent more, but collect a ton in tariffs, that's a huge benefit. And, if due to the trillions in new investment makes wages go up more than that inflation it's even a bigger win.

Last month, the tariffs alone had us collect more revenue than we paid in expenses.

If China, Canada and Mexico can claw us a good portion of the way out of our debt, an added 1-2 percent tax is fine.

But we have not seen any tariff inflation yet.

So, more along the lines of JFK's "...but what you can do for America," meets, "For the greater good," yes?






Nothing to do with the greater good.

We are in debt. Huge debt. So,either

1. we pay
2. we have other countries pay.

I'd rather have option 2.

But many here want to take away things a lot of us have paid for the past 40+ years.

I'd certainly take option 1 over that.

LOL OLD
No Spin Ag
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KerrAg76 said:

No Spin Ag said:

KerrAg76 said:

Silent For Too Long said:

HowdyTAMU said:

A tariff is a tax. Companies do not pay taxes. Consumers do.

The difference between a tariff and a tax is only in their intent. A tariff is generally designed to aid that country's businesses or government.

What is there to discuss?


This oversimplification is silly and inaccurate.

If you ask anyone who actually is in charge of supply acquisition they will tell you that both suppliers and manufacturers are absorbing some of the cost to keep prices down.


BINGO!! Because many products purchased are consumer choice. Supply chains will be disrupted and alternative methods developed. Companies and people adapt.

But will consumers still have to pay more for the same goods they've been purchasing for all the years previous?


Like I said previously…. Possibly. But other scenarios exist as well, weaker competitors move up the supply chain, cottage industries develop and grow quickly and of course stronger companies become more vertical internally developing US based suppliers….it ain't just about passing on costs

I appreciate your thoughts.

Here's to hoping that if prices do jump for the consumer, it is more a nuisance than a living adjustment.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
MemphisAg1
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Science Denier said:

But we have not seen any tariff inflation yet.

That's not accurate. There are plenty of data points in the media of tariff-induced inflation starting to show up, both from the latest CPI print as well as statements from brands on price increases they've made to pass along higher import costs. Thus far the impact has been minimal and it remains to be seen how much more passes thru in the coming months.
No Spin Ag
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Science Denier said:

No Spin Ag said:

Science Denier said:

No Spin Ag said:

KerrAg76 said:

Silent For Too Long said:

HowdyTAMU said:

A tariff is a tax. Companies do not pay taxes. Consumers do.

The difference between a tariff and a tax is only in their intent. A tariff is generally designed to aid that country's businesses or government.

What is there to discuss?


This oversimplification is silly and inaccurate.

If you ask anyone who actually is in charge of supply acquisition they will tell you that both suppliers and manufacturers are absorbing some of the cost to keep prices down.


BINGO!! Because many products purchased are consumer choice. Supply chains will be disrupted and alternative methods developed. Companies and people adapt.

But will consumers still have to pay more for the same goods they've been purchasing for all the years previous?


If we pay 1-2 percent more, but collect a ton in tariffs, that's a huge benefit. And, if due to the trillions in new investment makes wages go up more than that inflation it's even a bigger win.

Last month, the tariffs alone had us collect more revenue than we paid in expenses.

If China, Canada and Mexico can claw us a good portion of the way out of our debt, an added 1-2 percent tax is fine.

But we have not seen any tariff inflation yet.

So, more along the lines of JFK's "...but what you can do for America," meets, "For the greater good," yes?






Itching to do with the greater food.

We are in debt. Huge debt. So,either

1. we pay
2. we have other countries pay.

I'd rather have option 2.

But many here want to take away things a lot of us have paid for the past 40+ years.

I'd certainly take option 1 over that.



Appreciate the fiscal consistency.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
BigRobSA
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Matt Hooper said:

So far so good. But it's only been a few months.

My wife shares your opinion. So it may be a short ownership period for simplicity.




I'm only half-kidding.

I'm sure it was either a JAG-YOU-ARE or a RAYNJ ROVE-AH. Both are amazeballs in the looks department, but have a horrible history as to reliability.

I'm able to work on my own vehicles, where most aren't, so I'd pimp either like a muhfuqin' bauss.
BigRobSA
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MemphisAg1 said:

Science Denier said:

But we have not seen any tariff inflation yet.

That's not accurate. There are plenty of data points in the media of tariff-induced inflation starting to show up, both from the latest CPI print as well as statements from brands on price increases they've made to pass along higher import costs. Thus far the impact has been minimal and it remains to be seen how much more passes thru in the coming months.

Plus, whether it's tariff-induced liberalism or just regular liberalism causing inflation, it ends up the same....we pay more for **** .

Deregulate massively
Gut spending
Cut taxes

Pretty simple
CowboyGirl
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KerrAg76 said:

No Spin Ag said:

KerrAg76 said:

Silent For Too Long said:

HowdyTAMU said:

A tariff is a tax. Companies do not pay taxes. Consumers do.

The difference between a tariff and a tax is only in their intent. A tariff is generally designed to aid that country's businesses or government.

What is there to discuss?


This oversimplification is silly and inaccurate.

If you ask anyone who actually is in charge of supply acquisition they will tell you that both suppliers and manufacturers are absorbing some of the cost to keep prices down.


BINGO!! Because many products purchased are consumer choice. Supply chains will be disrupted and alternative methods developed. Companies and people adapt.

But will consumers still have to pay more for the same goods they've been purchasing for all the years previous?


Like I said previously…. Possibly. But other scenarios exist as well, weaker competitors move up the supply chain, cottage industries develop and grow quickly and of course stronger companies become more vertical internally developing US based suppliers….it ain't just about passing on costs

Hard to imagine that $700 billion can be transferred out of the private economy and into government coffers without companies, investors, and consumers having to pay anything.
CowboyGirl
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MemphisAg1 said:

Science Denier said:

But we have not seen any tariff inflation yet.

That's not accurate. There are plenty of data points in the media of tariff-induced inflation starting to show up, both from the latest CPI print as well as statements from brands on price increases they've made to pass along higher import costs. Thus far the impact has been minimal and it remains to be seen how much more passes thru in the coming months.

Also, to keep prices from rising, you are also starting to see reductions in size/variety/quality/packaging of products where they can be made to offset the tariff cost. Things (like shrinkflation) that companies hope won't be noticeable to customers but save lots of $$$ on high tariff material.

One example I just noticed anecdotally was certain canned goods that used to have a pull top/tab now don't. I can't prove it's because of 50% steel tariffs, but those are the kind of small marginal cost savings that add up to big $$ that companies are going to be looking for.
FCBlitz
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KerrAg76 said:

Silent For Too Long said:

HowdyTAMU said:

A tariff is a tax. Companies do not pay taxes. Consumers do.

The difference between a tariff and a tax is only in their intent. A tariff is generally designed to aid that country's businesses or government.

What is there to discuss?


This oversimplification is silly and inaccurate.

If you ask anyone who actually is in charge of supply acquisition they will tell you that both suppliers and manufacturers are absorbing some of the cost to keep prices down.


BINGO!! Because many products purchased are consumer choice. Supply chains will be disrupted and alternative methods developed. Companies and people adapt.
Blue Star answer.
MemphisAg1
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Another data point of consumers likely to feel the impact of tariffs.
Quote:

(Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump is getting his tariffs. Companies are making it clear how they intend to deal with it - passing them on to American consumers.

Quote:

"You're going to see companies like Walmart (WMT), Amazon (AMZN), and Best Buy (BBY) forced to pass price increases to consumers," said Bill George, former chairman and CEO of Medtronic and executive education fellow at Harvard Business School.

"Main Street has yet to see the fallout from increased tariffs - and they're going to go higher."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-gets-tariffs-americans-price-180747935.html
Logos Stick
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Mo tariffs....

MemphisAg1
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More data points of tariffs likely to get passed on to consumers
Quote:

  • Companies ranging from Stanley Black & Decker to Conagra to Tesla have told analysts on earnings calls that higher tariffs will raise costs.
  • The management remarks come as economists doubt that importers will continue absorbing cost increases tied to tariffs, and say they're likely to pass them on to consumers instead.
  • U.S. consumers haven't yet experienced meaningful bumps to inflation as a result of higher tariffs. That can be attributed to domestic companies currently absorbing cost hikes, but some economists warn that business may soon start passing the increases on to shoppers after this week's deadline passes.
  • As a result, the "core" version of the consumer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, should rise at an annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter, up from 2.1% in the second quarter, according to Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler's chief global economist.


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/stanley-black-decker-conagra-trump-tariffs-cost-increases.html
cecil77
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MemphisAg1 said:

More data points of tariffs likely to get passed on to consumers
Quote:

  • Companies ranging from Stanley Black & Decker to Conagra to Tesla have told analysts on earnings calls that higher tariffs will raise costs.
  • The management remarks come as economists doubt that importers will continue absorbing cost increases tied to tariffs, and say they're likely to pass them on to consumers instead.
  • U.S. consumers haven't yet experienced meaningful bumps to inflation as a result of higher tariffs. That can be attributed to domestic companies currently absorbing cost hikes, but some economists warn that business may soon start passing the increases on to shoppers after this week's deadline passes.
  • As a result, the "core" version of the consumer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, should rise at an annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter, up from 2.1% in the second quarter, according to Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler's chief global economist.


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/stanley-black-decker-conagra-trump-tariffs-cost-increases.html

Still, consumers CHOOSE what they spend their money on and have the ultimate control. Every buying decision is a choice.
BigRobSA
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cecil77 said:

MemphisAg1 said:

More data points of tariffs likely to get passed on to consumers
Quote:

  • Companies ranging from Stanley Black & Decker to Conagra to Tesla have told analysts on earnings calls that higher tariffs will raise costs.
  • The management remarks come as economists doubt that importers will continue absorbing cost increases tied to tariffs, and say they're likely to pass them on to consumers instead.
  • U.S. consumers haven't yet experienced meaningful bumps to inflation as a result of higher tariffs. That can be attributed to domestic companies currently absorbing cost hikes, but some economists warn that business may soon start passing the increases on to shoppers after this week's deadline passes.
  • As a result, the "core" version of the consumer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, should rise at an annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter, up from 2.1% in the second quarter, according to Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler's chief global economist.


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/stanley-black-decker-conagra-trump-tariffs-cost-increases.html

Still, consumers CHOOSE what they spend their money on and have the ultimate control. Every buying decision is a choice.

Except that a lot of "choices" aren't that, the manufacturing of the item(s) has/have been forced elsewhere due to govt interference, which is always a negative.

Deregulate massively
GUT spending
Cut taxes

Simple solution
 
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