BigRobSA said:

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doubledog said:

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You cannot have factory jobs without factories. I doubt that the U.S. built a lot of factories under Biden's administration.

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They're not building them under Trump, either.

None of the reasons why mfg moved out of country is being dealt with, in the slightest. Not to mention the inability to see into the future and what it holds (e.g. Democrat winning in 28, total effect of liberal tariffs, etc)

Deregulate massively
Cut corporate taxes (and everyone else), not just keep the current rates like was done
GUT spending

Simple solution to actually bring back mfg jobs.

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The WSJ disagrees...

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-new-us-factories-d2981280?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhv5Jhaa4gbiwMsjdd2lHTp3-k9mOa-OcFVpeFDptgy16AXgqhtc8f8ceTMoXY%3D&gaa_ts=688e5355&gaa_sig=BZzV_y0SDIO6jmRP4LkcyWNJmwB0tzDWGUqPWhxQoQfcCrOKSjhvWsAfIiooGi3dCPoeh94fwb8X-bDl8zzUxg%3D%3D

Lots of folks have the mistaken belief tariffs are already priced in to what they are buying today. That is wrong. Most of the tariffs are not yet in effect; the full effect will start to be felt late in year (as it stands at the moment).

BigRobSA said:

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doubledog said:

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You cannot have factory jobs without factories. I doubt that the U.S. built a lot of factories under Biden's administration.

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They're not building them under Trump, either.

None of the reasons why mfg moved out of country is being dealt with, in the slightest. Not to mention the inability to see into the future and what it holds (e.g. Democrat winning in 28, total effect of liberal tariffs, etc)

Deregulate massively
Cut corporate taxes (and everyone else), not just keep the current rates like was done
GUT spending

Simple solution to actually bring back mfg jobs.

---

Agreed
List of Companies Pledging to Invest Billions in US Since Donald Trump Win Published Mar 21, 2025 at 5:19 PM EDT Updated Mar 21, 2025 at 5:32 PM EDT

• Johnson & Johnson:
• SoftBank:
• United Arab Emirates:
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company:
• OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank.
• Apple:
• Nvidia:.

President Trump's First 100 Days of Deregulation
-In the domain of regulatory policy, the Administration has taken numerous government-wide actions to pursue its policy objectives. These actions have included:

• Executive Order 14,192 calling for agencies to identify at least 10 existing regulations or guidance documents to be revoked for every new one to be added;
• Executive Order 14,215 applying the White House regulatory review process to independent agencies; and
• Executive Order 14,219 calling on agencies to revisit their statutory authorizations of existing regulations.

I believe President Trump's Administration has already eliminated numerous egregious regulations from the EPA.

So some progress, still need more massive cuts in spending, crossing my fingers.

BusterAg said:

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Over_ed said:

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Tariffs do lead to (at least) a one time price hike. Some argue this is not inflation, btw.

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If you have two products that you as a country make, and you make 100 of each a year, and they each cost $1. Then you pass a tariff on Product A, and it goes up to $1.10. The next year, the country sells 100 of product A at $1.10 and 100 of product B at $0.90. What was inflation for the year?

The next year, the country sells 90 of Product A at $1, and 110 of Product B at $1. What was inflation for the second year?

There was the same amount of money in circulation / spent, so there was no inflation.

Inflation always is and always will be a monetary phenomenon.

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Sorry, just saw this.

My quibble is it takes time for the new supply/demand/production to reach an equilibrium.

Until that equilibrium is reached you have "inflation". Economists call this a one-time "price hike/shock". but argue that in the long term, the hikes will abate with the new equlibrium, assuming that there are substitues available.

But, if the tariif induced shock is severe enough, perhaps accompanied by no substitutes, a criticality (rare earths), and pervasiveness ( a lot of sectors need it), then the shock(s) could lead to an economic malaise, lower productivity, increased unemployment.

What does the Fed do in this situation? What it always does, it "prints". Then then your assumption of constant M is violated and you get inflation.

Not trying to quibble, but a "one-time" price increase could certainly cause inflation - for instance the scenario I described above. It could also lead to increased V - which could certainly "feel" like inflation.

richardag said:

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BigRobSA said:

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doubledog said:

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You cannot have factory jobs without factories. I doubt that the U.S. built a lot of factories under Biden's administration.

---

They're not building them under Trump, either.

None of the reasons why mfg moved out of country is being dealt with, in the slightest. Not to mention the inability to see into the future and what it holds (e.g. Democrat winning in 28, total effect of liberal tariffs, etc)

Deregulate massively
Cut corporate taxes (and everyone else), not just keep the current rates like was done
GUT spending

Simple solution to actually bring back mfg jobs.

---

Agreed
List of Companies Pledging to Invest Billions in US Since Donald Trump Win Published Mar 21, 2025 at 5:19 PM EDT Updated Mar 21, 2025 at 5:32 PM EDT

• Johnson & Johnson:
• SoftBank:
• United Arab Emirates:
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company:
• OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank.
• Apple:
• Nvidia:.

President Trump's First 100 Days of Deregulation
-In the domain of regulatory policy, the Administration has taken numerous government-wide actions to pursue its policy objectives. These actions have included:

• Executive Order 14,192 calling for agencies to identify at least 10 existing regulations or guidance documents to be revoked for every new one to be added;
• Executive Order 14,215 applying the White House regulatory review process to independent agencies; and
• Executive Order 14,219 calling on agencies to revisit their statutory authorizations of existing regulations.

I believe President Trump's Administration has already eliminated numerous egregious regulations from the EPA.

So some progress, still need more massive cuts in spending, crossing my fingers.

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"Pledges to build" != actually building them.

It takes years to build a factory, get it running, etc. Saying they will and starting/completing it are totally different. Yes, them even "pledging" is a GREAT thing, don't get me wrong. But, "I'll believe it when I see it" first and foremost. Political winds keep changing direction every 4-8 yrs. Drastically.

We've seen factory jobs leaving this country for 50 years largely due to trade tariffs and now we're highlighting a 5 year low?? This is a trade war and the benefits of winning it will far outweigh the casualties.