Democrats at risk of losing 40 House Seats

6,143 Views | 58 Replies | Last: 10 days ago by Ellis Wyatt
Logos Stick
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In reply to twk • 3:53p, 8/8/25
twk said:
texagbeliever said:
Rapier108 said:


Other polls are somewhat less, but the last couple of months haven't been overly kind to the GOP.

The only saving thing for them is the Democrats have a -32 favorability. Republicans are only -9.

Polls are in "narrative creation" season. Nobody is itching to give pro Trans anti police party power.

While I wouldn't put a lot of stock in polls, one thing that that has changed is that the Republican party is now the home of more low propensity voters than the Democrat. All those extremists looking to hug a terrorist do reliably make it to the polls, whereas blue collar workers are not quite as reliable.

The OP is pure click bait. Whatever Trump might be saying about a new census, Congress is not going to reapportion Congressional seats until after the 2030 Census. Rather than wasting time on a census that won't count, Republicans need to do all that they can to make sure that the next one is not as bogus as the last one.


The Tories lost. Thank goodness!
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:00p, 8/8/25
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Republicans will suffer if they don't actually do anything big and deliver on their promises.

Closed the border.
Mass deportations (voluntarily and underreported involuntarily).
Begin Cutting Waste.
Purge Worthless Bureaucrats.
Stop Iran Nuclear Programs.
Actually prosecute corruption.
Actually solve the debt crisis.
Actually make housing affordable, especially for new buyers.
Make starting a family more affordable and easier.

Our country is broken in a lot of ways, and many milestones are out of reach for a lot of people. Make them within reach and tackle corruption, and they'll see good results. Incredible results, even.

Dude has been busy, cut him some slack and give him some time.
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nortex97
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4:01p, 8/8/25
AG
Wait, could Trump actually direct a new federal census during his current/second term, for re-apportionment? I guess so?
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Logos Stick
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In reply to nortex97 • 4:40p, 8/8/25
The Rs were screwed last time. How in the **** do you miscount? They don't compare the count to a number they know to be true to determine that it was miscounted. You count what comes in. It's bull***** They did it intentionally, adding in a few R states to make it appear statistically viable.

We need to redo the census!
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Ag87H2O
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In reply to Logos Stick • 9:37a, 8/9/25
AG
Logos Stick said:
The Rs were screwed last time. How in the **** do you miscount? They don't compare the count to a number they know to be true to determine that it was miscounted. You count what comes in. It's bull***** They did it intentionally, adding in a few R states to make it appear statistically viable.

We need to redo the census!

No, the Rs were asleep at the wheel last time. A lot of people suspected exactly what was going on, but the weak knee'd Republicans for some reason were afraid to fight it or do anything about it. Typical lack of leadership at the national level.

Hopefully, an emboldened, empowered President Trump can right the wrong.
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JW
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9:38a, 8/9/25
AG
Dems would not hesitate to do this
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Ag87H2O • 9:44a, 8/9/25
AG
Ag87H2O said:
Logos Stick said:
The Rs were screwed last time. How in the **** do you miscount? They don't compare the count to a number they know to be true to determine that it was miscounted. You count what comes in. It's bull***** They did it intentionally, adding in a few R states to make it appear statistically viable.

We need to redo the census!

No, the Rs were asleep at the wheel last time. A lot of people suspected exactly what was going on, but the weak knee'd Republicans for some reason were afraid to fight it or do anything about it. Typical lack of leadership at the national level.

Hopefully, an emboldened, empowered President Trump can right the wrong.


And any time an R did speak up there were labeled a racist and told they had no standing to challenge the census.
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nortex97
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In reply to Logos Stick • 10:36a, 8/9/25
AG
The important thing is that a new census does NOT have to wait until 2030. That's just tradition, not the law/constitution. It can be done at any time after 2023 constitutionally.

The other absolute hilarity is something Merissa dug up which is GREAT to point out. The Biden administration sued one district nationally, in 4 years, over redistricting; Galveston.

They lost. En Banc in the 5th circuit. Coalition districts are over.

Political bias is a valid means/method to use to divide up/re-district electoral maps.

Play racial lawfare and lose, and pay the consequences, Democrats.
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Ag87H2O
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:41a, 8/9/25
AG
I do love a good boomerang. Especially when it comes back and hits the left.
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Rapier108
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10:43a, 8/9/25
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Ag with kids
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In reply to Rapier108 • 10:48a, 8/9/25
AG
Rapier108 said:

Considering they'd have to violate CA law to redistrict right now, I fully expect the Dems to do so.

Dems violating the law is like stating water is wet.
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Ag87H2O
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In reply to Rapier108 • 10:50a, 8/9/25
AG
Rapier108 said:

So much for their non-partisan redistricting committee. Democrats only follow the law when it suits them.

Hopefully, California Republicans file suit and tie this up in court until it is too late to get it on the November ballot.
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richardag
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In reply to Rapier108 • 11:13a, 8/9/25
Rapier108 said:

California and that corrupt Governor may have a problem gaining more corrupt Democratic seats.
JD Vance called California's congressional map 'outrageous.' It's not an outlier
quote from the article
  • "Of their 52 congressional districts, 9 of them are Republican. That means 17 percent of their delegation is Republican when Republicans regularly win 40 percent of the vote in that state. How can this possibly be allowed?"
Especially if illegal aleins are not counted in a census. California is hemorrhaging their legal citizens that actually work for a living.
Anyone considering voting for any Democratic candidate should immediately reconsider their voting preferences. Newsom is a perfect example of the most corrupt, dishonest, disgusting, despicable and dishonorable politician that defines the Democratic Party leadership.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.โ€
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
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aggiehawg
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4:31p, 8/9/25
AG
Question? With Henry Cuellar and his wife under indictment for bribery, will that seat possibly flip?
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Ag with kids
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:02a, 8/10/25
AG
aggiehawg said:
Question? With Henry Cuellar and his wife under indictment for bribery, will that seat possibly flip?

Remind me where his district is.

And where it would be if this bill passes.

I honestly don't know.
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fc2112
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In reply to Rapier108 • 5:11a, 8/10/25
Rapier108 said:

There's not much juice to that squeeze. They've already gerrymandered the Republicans almost out of existence.
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nortex97
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In reply to fc2112 • 5:37a, 8/10/25
AG
Yes, there's not much to the NY/CA threats.

Here are the facts:

MA: 36% Republican, 0 seats
CT: 42% Republican, 0 seats
ME: 46% Republican, 0 seats
NM: 46% Republican, 0 seats
NH: 48% Republican, 0 seats
RI: 42% Republican, 0 seats
VT: 32% Republican, 0 seats
HI: 38% Republican, 0 seats
DE: 42% Republican, 0 seats

As to some of the blue states that were benevolent enough to give conservatives just a smidgen:

CA: 38% Republican, only 9 of 52 seats (20.9%)
IL: 44% Republican, only 3 of 17 seats (17.6%)
NY: 43% Republican, only 7 of 26 seats (26.9%)
MD: 34% Republican, only 1 of 8 seats (12.5%)
NJ: 46% Republican, only 3 of 12 seats (25%)
OR: 41% Republican, only 1 of 6 seats (16.7%)

Generally speaking, that second group shows around a 50% representation rate vs. voting rate for the GOP portion of their populace. 24 of 121 seats (19.8%), where around 42 percent of their folks vote GOP.

Also note, the Dems have done this for many years in CA.
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fc2112
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5:53a, 8/10/25
Meanwhile:

Texas - 38 members, with 25 Republicans, 12 Democrats (66%)
Florida - 28 members, including 8 Democrats and 20 Republicans (71%)
Ohio - 15 members, with 10 Republicans and 5 Democrats (67%)
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Sq 17
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In reply to fc2112 • 6:22a, 8/10/25
You need to add Wi and NC to that list
Wisconsin 6 out 8 or 75 %
North Carolina 10 out of 14 or 71%

Georgia and Pennsylvania are also slightly over represented by R's in congress based on recent presidential results.
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nortex97
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6:36a, 8/10/25
AG

"This is a level of hypocrisy that rivals the French Laundry."
-That made me laugh.
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TAMU1990
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10:36a, 8/10/25
AG
When the Biden administration stole 5-6 seats from the inaccurate census, and they admitted it, opened the door for a new one.
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El Gallo Blanco
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In reply to Rapier108 • 10:52a, 8/10/25
Rapier108 said:


Other polls are somewhat less, but the last couple of months haven't been overly kind to the GOP.

The only saving thing for them is the Democrats have a -32 favorability. Republicans are only -9.


We are toast. Completely cooked. I think I am becoming an accelerationist. Get the collapse and reset over with sooner before later. We are slowly decaying. Reopening mental asylums and filling them to max capacity may be our only hope.
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whytho987654
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In reply to El Gallo Blanco • 11:02a, 8/10/25
El Gallo Blanco said:
Rapier108 said:


Other polls are somewhat less, but the last couple of months haven't been overly kind to the GOP.

The only saving thing for them is the Democrats have a -32 favorability. Republicans are only -9.


We are toast. Completely cooked. I think I am becoming an accelerationist. Get the collapse and reset over with sooner before later. We are slowly decaying. Reopening mental asylums and filling them to max capacity may be our only hope.

Well republicans could easily win if they did what they were elected to do. Instead they've let the interests of a certain foreign gov run the show, shilled to PE and big corps, let H1Bs run rampant, and haven't deported enough
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to whytho987654 • 5:32p, 8/10/25
This is nonsense.
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