WTI Oil at $109/$110 a barrel--Sun Evening

147,386 Views | 1169 Replies | Last: 9 days ago by FWTXAg
flown-the-coop
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AG
tysker said:

Do you think that the oil in the Keystone is going to stay in the US?
I suspect a fair amount of it will be shipped to the higher bidders located in Asia

Well considering it has to still be completed then I don't think your hypotheticals are relevant.

However, investment and commitments for these to be delivered things is good news and usually still impacts current prices given overall optimism.
tysker
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flown-the-coop said:

tysker said:

Do you think that the oil in the Keystone is going to stay in the US?
I suspect a fair amount of it will be shipped to the higher bidders located in Asia

Well considering it has to still be completed then I don't think your hypotheticals are relevant.

However, investment and commitments for these to be delivered things is good news and usually still impacts current prices given overall optimism.

"current prices"?
Based on what, unicorn farts?
EFR
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Since when does good news about the fairly distant future have a positive effect on current commodity prices?
flown-the-coop
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EFR said:

Since when does good news about the fairly distant future have a positive effect on current commodity prices?

Spot prices of commodities that can be stored are most certainly impacted by future conditions. Believe it's probably been discussed in this thread.

Companies making commitments now for the Keystone XL is positive news. General positivity will at the least calm the markets and less volatility now will likely lower spot price.
tysker
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flown-the-coop said:

EFR said:

Since when does good news about the fairly distant future have a positive effect on current commodity prices?

Spot prices of commodities that can be stored are most certainly impacted by future conditions. Believe it's probably been discussed in this thread.

Companies making commitments now for the Keystone XL is positive news. General positivity will at the least calm the markets and less volatility now will likely lower spot price.

I know this thread is about Oil prices but spot prices for cocoa is up 20% and cotton spot is up 17% over the last month. Wheat and soybeans prices are up too.

Will the Keystone help alleviate these input costs for producers as well?
flown-the-coop
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tysker said:

flown-the-coop said:

EFR said:

Since when does good news about the fairly distant future have a positive effect on current commodity prices?

Spot prices of commodities that can be stored are most certainly impacted by future conditions. Believe it's probably been discussed in this thread.

Companies making commitments now for the Keystone XL is positive news. General positivity will at the least calm the markets and less volatility now will likely lower spot price.

I know this thread is about Oil prices but spot prices for cocoa is up 20% and cotton spot is up 17% over the last month. Wheat and soybeans prices are up too.

Will the Keystone help alleviate these input costs for producers as well?

Transport costs would be lower so I think the answer is… yes?!
tysker
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One of my favorite oil analysts is working on some capex guidance for refiners, but there are limitations. Currently, we export about 4.5 million barrels per day, and due to constraints and bottlenecks, we may be able to increase to 5.5 million barrels per day. Not exactly killing it or really helping lower global oil prices
ErnestEndeavor
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WTI down 10% on news of potential peace deal. Hormuz to gradually open over the next 30 days...supposedly.
ErnestEndeavor
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WTI getting awfully close to dropping below $90.
Sims
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A chinese vessel getting hit is going to move things lower.

Russia has already told Iran to go pound sand from a mutual defense pact and with a chinese vessel getting hit, China is gonna tap the brakes on support for Iran. Iran's clock is ticking faster and they don't have much leverage left.
No Spin Ag
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ErnestEndeavor said:

WTI getting awfully close to dropping below $90.


Right before summer diving would be as optimal as it gets.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
No Spin Ag
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Sims said:

A chinese vessel getting hit is going to move things lower.

Russia has already told Iran to go pound sand from a mutual defense pact and with a chinese vessel getting hit, China is gonna tap the brakes on support for Iran. Iran's clock is ticking faster and they don't have much leverage left.


True.

At this point they're on life support. We just need to see if they have a DNR and can stay at this level for more than a few months or if the plug can get pulled.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
tysker
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ErnestEndeavor said:

WTI getting awfully close to dropping below $90.

WTI has dropped below $90 three times since the conflict with Iran started. We'll see if this price action is a trade or a trend
fc2112
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Seems like gas everywhere jumped to $4.19 overnight. I guess they didn't get the memo.

IB4 "it takes time for cheaper oil" yada yada yada. When the price of oil went up 30%, gas jumped 30% 5 minutes later.
HumbleAg04
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fc2112 said:

Seems like gas everywhere jumped to $4.19 overnight. I guess they didn't get the memo.

IB4 "it takes time for cheaper oil" yada yada yada. When the price of oil went up 30%, gas jumped 30% 5 minutes later.


Yes because it is priced off what it will cost to refill their underground storage tank. It is a very complex global and acutely regional economy. It isn't a simple supply/demand issue.

Gas stations make literal pennies at the pump, their profits come from the fats and alcoholics who go inside and shop.
fc2112
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I love it - "it's hard". OK.

So price of oil jumps and it costs more to refill the tanks 5 minutes later, but price drops and it costs less to fill up the tanks one month later?

Makes sense. Oh wait - it's hard - OK.
Sims
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fc2112 said:

I love it - "it's hard". OK.

So price of oil jumps and it costs more to refill the tanks 5 minutes later, but price drops and it costs less to fill up the tanks one month later?

Makes sense. Oh wait - it's hard - OK.

Oh man. This just reminded me of the month long email thread I had going with an Emerson director trying to pin them down on exactly which tariffs were being passed along to my company as reflected in their price increases.

They couldn't get any more detailed than "it's complicated" and sent me a table listing all of the globally active tariffs.

I feel like a fairly sharp guy and I invited them to let me in on the complicatedness but never could get them past "it's complicated."

Finally I just told them I'd feel better if they just said they used the tariff narrative as a cover to raise prices permanently.
No Spin Ag
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fc2112 said:

I love it - "it's hard". OK.

So price of oil jumps and it costs more to refill the tanks 5 minutes later, but price drops and it costs less to fill up the tanks one month later?

Makes sense. Oh wait - it's hard - OK.


And don't forget blue collar folk who spend a ton on junk food to get them through their day.

I'd imagine those guys, the ones going daily and dropping more Thabo ten bucks each day, are the biggest money source for those the go inside.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
No Spin Ag
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Is the overnight fifteen cent jump in price at the pump the summer blend or just more Iran related price increases?

For those in the know, Garcias.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Kansas Kid
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No Spin Ag said:

Is the overnight fifteen cent jump in price at the pump the summer blend or just more Iran related price increases?

For those in the know, Garcias.

The summer blend has less impact on price vs the increase in crude. (Total cost of summer blend is in the $.10 to $.15 range. A $5 increase in crude would have the same impact and obviously it has gone up more than that)

One day jumps of 15 cents are almost always caused when one or more of the major C-stores in the market decide to try to push a price increase through based on higher wholesale price trends. My local market went up 25 cents this week to finally get over $4/gal. It could be them passing on the summer blend in this case but it is likely a combination of the two with crude being the bigger driver.
ErnestEndeavor
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Crude back up over $100.
AggieVictor10
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No Spin Ag said:

fc2112 said:

I love it - "it's hard". OK.

So price of oil jumps and it costs more to refill the tanks 5 minutes later, but price drops and it costs less to fill up the tanks one month later?

Makes sense. Oh wait - it's hard - OK.


And don't forget blue collar folk who spend a ton on junk food to get them through their day.

I'd imagine those guys, the ones going daily and dropping more Thabo ten bucks each day, are the biggest money source for those the go inside.



They voted for this and elections have consequences.



MattAg84
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Kansas Kid said:

No Spin Ag said:

Is the overnight fifteen cent jump in price at the pump the summer blend or just more Iran related price increases?

For those in the know, Garcias.

The summer blend has less impact on price vs the increase in crude. (Total cost of summer blend is in the $.10 to $.15 range. A $5 increase in crude would have the same impact and obviously it has gone up more than that)

One day jumps of 15 cents are almost always caused when one or more of the major C-stores in the market decide to try to push a price increase through based on higher wholesale price trends. My local market went up 25 cents this week to finally get over $4/gal. It could be them passing on the summer blend in this case but it is likely a combination of the two with crude being the bigger driver.

Convenience stores make like 1-2% margins on gas pumps. They're not out there colluding to raise prices. If their prices go up it's because their inputs are higher.
C/O 2007
Deerdude
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I'd argue that while they may not collude face to face, they make sure that prices are comparable to the guy down the street.
HTownAg98
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That's called markets.
aggiehawg
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Deerdude said:

I'd argue that while they may not collude face to face, they make sure that prices are comparable to the guy down the street.

Very competitive market those gas stations are in.
Deerdude
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Sure and there's two angles I guess they use. You can try to be a little lower to generate sales, or be forced to keep as low as the other guy to retain some sales.
I'm a fuel price shopper. I have 130 gallon capacity in my truck including 70 gallon aux tank in bed. I use fuel from reserves where it's expensive and fill up where cheap. Headed thru Laredo today. It's $.20 cheaper there. I'll top off .
MattAg84
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Deerdude said:

I'd argue that while they may not collude face to face, they make sure that prices are comparable to the guy down the street.

Those stores down the street are raising their prices because the price they all paid for the gasoline is higher than the day before, it's not some grand conspiracy. They don't make their money on gas, they make it on selling slushies and chips inside.
C/O 2007
techno-ag
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Deerdude said:

Sure and there's two angles I guess they use. You can try to be a little lower to generate sales, or be forced to keep as low as the other guy to retain some sales.
I'm a fuel price shopper. I have 130 gallon capacity in my truck including 70 gallon aux tank in bed. I use fuel from reserves where it's expensive and fill up where cheap. Headed thru Laredo today. It's $.20 cheaper there. I'll top off .

The ideal of course is to do this with one of the credit cards that gives 5% back on fuel purchases.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
Kansas Kid
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No doubt they aren't colluding. If they were, prices would never go down. As others stated, gasoline is a low margin business and can even be a loss leader to get inside store sales.

I was trying to highlight gas price jumps of $0.15-$.0.25 aren't unusual but I should have added it was to try to avoid losses on gas sales and it is usually after a period where they were absorbing wholesale increases.
AgFan1974
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Deerdude said:

Sure and there's two angles I guess they use. You can try to be a little lower to generate sales, or be forced to keep as low as the other guy to retain some sales.
I'm a fuel price shopper. I have 130 gallon capacity in my truck including 70 gallon aux tank in bed. I use fuel from reserves where it's expensive and fill up where cheap. Headed thru Laredo today. It's $.20 cheaper there. I'll top off .

I fill up at a spot I know I will not have to go inside for my receipt. The extra $2/tank is a bargain put up against navigating through the sea of crap that is Concur and HR.
flown-the-coop
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Just want to point out that the gas price apps sort of render direct collusion irrelevant. Why break the law when you have all the data you need and can use software to respond to price adjustments of competitors automatically, realtime and the magic sign at the street updates accordingly, feeding back into apps as a new data point for others.
No Spin Ag
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aggiehawg said:

Deerdude said:

I'd argue that while they may not collude face to face, they make sure that prices are comparable to the guy down the street.

Very competitive market those gas stations are in.


Someone channeled their inner Yoda it seems.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
TyHolden
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Save Alberta???

I hope I did not offend anybody with this post. If I did, please come see me at my address in my profile so we can talk.
No Spin Ag
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Anyone else have a 30 cent jump overnight like we had in the LBK last night?

Gas is now twice as much per gallon as it was the day before the war.

Anyone know how much higher it can go with all that's going on in Iran? I've heard about depleted oil something around the world and whatnot, so anyone in the know with info would be appreciated if they shared it.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
 
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