K2-HMFIC said:
Woah…that's a bold assumption…time may be on the side of the blockader but is time on Trump's side vis a vis the elections?
For the 2026 midterms the economic hit is already baked in, and the surrounding narrative is where things hinge. And the more likely it is that Trump's control of Congress slips away in November, the more incentive he has to get the big licks in on Iran & Cuba beforehand. It wouldn't be hard to tie an ongoing blockade to the Chinese threat and munitions depletion, and a late-in-the-game seizure of Cuba would synergize well.