I submit 3 names to fade. Now this isn't a they will suck list, but a relative to draft capital, they are just a bad pick (in my opinion).

1. Malik Nabers (ADP 10-14): This has more to do with the QB than the talent. Last year the NYG ranked 7th in pass attempts per game at 34.8 per game. Russel Wilson has averaged ~30 pass attempts per game. So 5 fewer passes. If you look at the WR/TE/RB/(Throw-away) target split of the NYG in 2025 (weeks 10-18): 20/8/5.7/2.4. Vs Russel Wilson over the same time: 13/7.4/6.9/2.8. The fear is that Nabers 10.8 targets per game drops to 6-7. Wilson's targeted highest WR over the past 5 years: Pickens 7.5, Sutton 5.6, Jeudy 6.7, DK 7.6, Locket 8.3 /DK 8.1.
2. Mike Evans (ADP 35-40): You are drafting a guy at 90% of his peak value. Drafting around WR18, he has finished as WR 14, 7 & 17 in the past 3 years. He is 31 years old and has thrived on big play TDs (air yards 24.1/rec in 2023, 17.2 in '24). I don't think a top 10 season is possible for him again. Is his speed going to slow down? Is the target competition with Godwin, McMillian (soph season), and Egbuka going to limit his opportunities.
3. Ken Walker (ADP 44-49): You would be drafting a guy at RB 15 who has finished the past 3 years at: 27, 19 & 18. Seattle has a bad offensive line. He played only 65% of the snaps when healthy in 2024. Oh and a guy with a history of ankle issues; was limited in minicamp due to an ankle injury. Can he have some boom games, Yes. Stats aren't suggesting a player on the rise. His attempts are declining every year. his YPC is declining every year.
Out of the 31 RBs with over 150 rushing attempts last year, Ken Walker rates 3rd worst in tkl/loss rate. Achane who had the worst QB play and awful oline play will get an asterik. Which just leaves Joe Mixon as having the worst tkl/loss rate.

I haven't done any draft analysis yet, but...

CMC

after last year...woof...how far does he have to fall (in half-PPR 12-team drafts) before you would take him?

CMC ADP in Best Ball is currently 7.5 on Underdog (Half PPR) and 8.0 on DraftKings (Full PPR). And his ADP has moved up from the 1-2 turn after reports said he looked healthy during OTA's. Definitely a risky pick, but he still has overall RB1 upside if healthy IMO. If I am drafting 10th or later in a re-draft league, I don't mind drafting CMC, though that likely includes trying to lock-in Guerendo later in the draft as a handcuff.

My current fade at price is Deebo (DK ADP 65). I think it will be hard for Washington to support two relevant WRs in fantasy with a dual threat QB and a solid receiving TE. If McLaurin's holdout lasts deep into the preseason and/or we get news that Deebo is getting usage in their offense as a goal-line back, then I would have to re-think my opinion. Otherwise, 6th round feels expensive for Deebo.

Deebo is an interesting name to mention. I think his name draft capital is too high and situation doesnt make me exciting as you laid out.

Next big one: Jeanty.
Why: plays chargers x2, Chiefs once (2nd game is last so not fantasy relevant) and eagles once. Those were the 3 top defenses against running backs in 2024. Add in the Broncos who loaded up even more on the defense and were 11th ranked last year.
Not to mention the raiders ranked dead last in YBC/att in 2024 which was also the worst in 2023.

Now the first half of the season is more juicy for Jeanty. But if he is eased into the starting role it could be too late as a 8-12 draft pick.

Jeanty's DK ADP has fallen from 7.6 post draft to 12.1 now. I believe the latest I have drafted him is 17 overall. I think Jeanty can pay off a mid-2nd round ADP on volume, would help if the Raiders passing game offers enough of a threat that he doesn't face stacked boxes all game long.

It will be interesting to see how where his ADP goes during the preseason. Could go up as more people start engaging with fantasy football given his name recognition. However, his ADP could fall as he is still drafted higher than Henry, Achane, JT, and Bucky, and I think you could argue taking any of those RBs ahead of Jeanty.

Raiders preseason opener is at Seattle on Thursday, August 7th at 9pm Central on NFL Network. Hopefully that will be our first look at Jeanty in NFL action.

Not all the way through projections for the entire league, but here's what I have so far:

Saquon Barkley - almost 500 touches LY if you include playoffs, too much risk for his early- to mid-1st ADP

Terry McLaurin - will almost certainly see touchdown regression and the holdout isn't helping at all

Marvin Harrison Jr - absolutely terrible metrics LY, especially catch rate and YAC

Brandon Aiyuk - torn ACL and MCL in October, I don't expect him to do much of anything in 2025

Garrett Wilson - not spending a 3rd on a WR catching passes from Justin Fields

Travis Hunter - going to let others take this risk until there is more clarity on his role

RJ Harvey - expecting a full blown committee in Denver

Barkley in the top 3 would be a bit much for me. But last year Barkley avg 1.5 yards better YBC then the league average. That was also 0.5 yards better than the next base running back. After Bijan, Chase, and Lamb i think you can make cases the next guys have questions. Gibbs (better Detroit defense and downgrade interior line), JJ (rookie* qb).

He's an incredible player in a great situation, I wouldn't judge anyone for taking him anywhere in the first to be honest. History is not on his side though. His 482 total touches last season (including playoffs) were the most since DeMarco Murray's 497 in 2014.

There is a theory called "the curse of 370" that predicts serious declines the season after a RB has 370+ carries. Barkley had 436 carries total. In the last decade there have been 9 other examples of RBs with 370+ carries. Those players averaged 46% fewer PPR points the following season and about half missed at least 5 games with injuries.

If we expand the sample size back to 1980, there have been 30 RBs that had 370+ carries in a season. Only one (Eric Dickerson) had more yards the following season. 40% saw their production fall by more than 50%. The average reduction in PPR points the following season for all 30 RBs is over 40%.

9 running backs have ever cleared 2,000 yards. Barkley had 2,504 total, an insane number. None of the other 8 reached 1,500 yards the following season. Five missed multiple games with injury. Their average PPR points were down 47% the following season on average. Only one (Barry Sanders) saw his production fall by less than 30%.

I subscribe to the idea that you can't win your league in the first round of the draft, but you can lose it. So I'll most likely play it safe and avoid betting against trends like these unless he falls into the late 1st. But I can't see that happening so I most likely won't own him at all this season.

speaking of the Lions...

David Montgomery has an ADP around #60 -- late 5th round in 12-team leagues

for RB zero drafters...seems like a good target

Speaking of the Lions...I read a blurb the other day that ARSB may be a player to avoid at his current 1st round ADP

Just given the Lions offense with Gibbs and Monty, how it'll look with no Ben Johnson, and with the emergence of Jameson Williams the opportunity for 1st round WR production won't be there.

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Terry McLaurin - will almost certainly see touchdown regression and the holdout isn't helping at all

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I know most of the industry is out on McLaurin at ADP due to the TD regression, but I'm still in on him in mid to late 3rd round. Sure, he might not score 13 TDs again, but the Commanders offense fundamentally changed last year with the addition of Daniels and Kingsbury at OC. In McLaurin's first 5 seasons with Washington, they finished 23rd or lower in points scored, then finished 5th last year. I see no reason to think they won't finish the year with another Top 10 offense, with plenty of TDs to go around.

Also, I like Washington's fantasy playoff schedule (@NYG, vs PHI, vs DAL). In Best Ball, I like drafting McLaurin in the 3rd round and trying to stack him with Daniels in the 4th. I also like McLaurin as a fantasy playoff bring-back in PHI and DAL stacks.

Finally, I do agree there is some risk given his current holdout. However, I think it will eventually get resolved and may even lead to an ADP discount in the interim. For a team that went to the NFC Championship game last year for the first time in forever, and is seeking a new stadium, I think it would be a huge mistake for them to trade him or let this holdout last into the season.

Quote:

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Speaking of the Lions...I read a blurb the other day that ARSB may be a player to avoid at his current 1st round ADP

Just given the Lions offense with Gibbs and Monty, how it'll look with no Ben Johnson, and with the emergence of Jameson Williams the opportunity for 1st round WR production won't be there.

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Definitely a lot of nuance with 1st round picks, and it will be interesting to see how the Lions offense performs without Ben Johnson. As for ARSB specifically, mid-1st round is probably too early, late 1st round feels about right (though arguments can be made for taking Nabers, Nico Collins, or Brian Thomas Jr ahead of ARSB), and early 2nd round feels like a steal. In my opinion, he's a riskier fade in Full PPR formats vs Non/Half PPR.

Counter argument is the lions will be less efficient in the run game. So more 6-10 yard passes. That is ARSB. Jameson takes the top off of a defense but if the lions don't get as many 4-6 yards first down plays they won't take as many deep shots. I think he will be safe. No WR1 ceiling though.

Thoughts on Godwin? Sounds like there is at least a possibility that he isn't ready for Week 1. Will be worth monitoring his situation throughout training camp. The longer Godwin is out of camp, the more we will see the ADP rise on Bucs pass catchers, particularly Egbuka. McMillan is still a cheap add in DK Best Ball in the Round 13-14 range.

Chris Godwin -

Article here now says 2nd ANKLE procedure. Thoughts:
•makes sense given how swollen his ankle was (and with calf atrophy) in June
•it likely scarred and has slowed progress, explaining why he’s still limited ~9 months out when on paper this should be a 6-8 month… https://t.co/4WdqN9NEc7

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) July 23, 2025

Nice little thread on X regarding some of the recent training camp injuries. Of course, always have to take info from the "Fantasy Football Twitter Docs" with a grain of salt unless the info is coming straight from the team.

Since this thread is about players to fade, wanted to note that through 43 drafts on various DraftKings Best Ball contests, I have 0 shares of the Texans running game. I don't mind their passing game, but I don't like Mixon at cost and his ADP is likely to plummet with his foot injury likely to keep him sidelined at least through training camp. I also don't care for Nick Chubb and his ADP will now go up. Might be worth taking a few late round fliers on rookie Woody Marks.

2. Joe Mixon
Rarely am I truly “out” on any player (all cost dependent).

I am out on Mixon this year. High risk of unhealed Right deltoid lig or Lisfranc that was reinjured ➡️ high risk of in-season surgery if healing doesn’t occur. ADP isn’t worth the risk.
📈Nick Chubb

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) July 27, 2025

Anyone care to chime in on why Saquan is dropping so far below his ADP?

I started looking through stuff and did a few mocks and while his ADP is 3 he's dropping sometime until late in Rd 1.

Seems like a smash take any later than 3 or 4.

Yes, there's a great post on this thread about why he might drop in fact.

I think people are buying into the short history science too much. Barkley has a great offensive line, was on a great team and that team can throw the ball. Teams couldn't sellout to stop Barkley because AJ Brown & Smith kept them honest.

My tier rankings in PPR for round 1
Tier 1: Chase & Lamb
Tier 2: Barkley, Bijan, Gibbs, CMC, JJ (may fall down to tier 3 based on hamstring)
Tier 3: A. St. Brown, Brian Thomas, Pucca, Nico
Tier 4: Nabers, Achane, Jeanty

Of the WRs i only see Chase/Lamb having the potential to be outclass the others and be the run away #1. For reference Chase had 86 more points scored for the season than 2nd (JJ). That is a ton! The tier 3 & 4 WRs i'd have topping out around 315 points PPR for a season. A top finish but not going to be win the league. I personally rate having a running back you can start despite matchup is more valuable given the limited number of those.

Barkley vs #24 RB in ppr last year: 175 points over the season (wks 1-17)
300 point WR PPR vs 36th WR last year: 125 points over the season (wks 1-17)

So if Barkley regressed down 50 points (500 yards rushing) that would put him at the same level of benefit that the non Chase/Lamb wrs bring.

That's kind of along the same lines I'm thinking.

Yeah I expect a regression but even with a regression the value is there especially for a pick later in the round.

Regression is only part of the concern, increased chance for injury from overuse is also worrisome. Especially considering his history:

2019 - missed 3 games with high ankle sprain
2020 - torn ACL and MCL, missed 14 games
2021 - missed 4 games with an ankle sprain
2023 - missed 3 games with an ankle sprain

Probably ok if you see something like that in September. But if its in December you're cooked.

*Edited to add I do agree that he is great value in the late first.

Assume PPR (3WR or double flex)

I figured this is the spot to ask: can you draft spots 6-9 and not go running back?

2nd round you likely have to reach for Jacobs, JT, Bucky or Brown.
3rd round you may get Breece Hall
4th round you may get Ken Walker, hubbard

Either way you cant risk getting a rookie rb like Harvey, Johnson or Hampton.

in 12-team leagues...

pass on RB at #6...next pick at #19

Lamb and Bucky seems like a good start to your team

then go WR again at #30

I think the victory is getting Lamb at #6. That is a big steal for PPR.
1. Lamb + Bucky/Brown/JT is an awesome round 1
2. Replace Lamb with JJ or Puka or Amon Ra and that would be discouraging.

It also doesnt help that Cook is holding out and the Bills back ups arent bad.

whatever I think makes sense will be undone by the 4 top QB's going in round 2.

I'm still determining my draft spot but after being burned by CMC last year I am avoiding all injury prone players in round 1.

I get first choice of draft slot so i am likely choosing 3 or 4 going top tier which for me is: Chase, Lamb, Bijan, Gibbs.

I hope QBs go like that in my draft. QBs have so little trade value relative to the players they would be drafted around.

Would you trade Bucky for Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen? Unless you are in a 14 team league or deep bench the step down from Bucky to your next RB will almost always be greater then Lamar Jackson to best wavier wire QB.

Also I think you should look at pick 2. If QBs do go in round 2 that will leave real good value in that early 3rd round.

thoughts on:

D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) ADP around #50

George Pickens (Cowboys) APD around #66

could either finish top 10 or top 15? (in half-PPR or non-PPR)

Appreciate the thought.

I haven't mocked a lot at two but your strategy makes sense and will test that out.

who are you targeting at QB? i like burrow but doubt he makes it back to me at 4/5. Thinking about Dak, mahomes, nix, maye.

i don't trust anyone on the Steelers offense even with rodgers there.

I like Pickens at his ADP because its lamb and nobody else on that offense. i don't see either being top 15 though.

W said:

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thoughts on:

D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) ADP around #50

George Pickens (Cowboys) APD around #66

could either finish top 10 or top 15? (in half-PPR or non-PPR)

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I wouldn't ever draft dk in full ppr, that said I think top 10-15 is possible in non-ppr.

What WRs do you think have the biggest non-ppr to ppr draft swing? Mike Evans, Jameson Williams, DK, Nabers (opposite)

Pickens is on my target list too

especially if I draft 10th or 11th or 12th...and end up starting RB/RB...maybe Henry and Achane