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Rain is outdoors.....

1,558,045 Views | 7655 Replies | Last: 18 hrs ago by Junction71
ABATTBQ87
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2026 Weather Outlook: La Niña's Quick Exit, El Niño's Potential and the Signals Farmers Should Watch
Meteorologists predict a quick La Niña exit, with a 75% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral by Jan-March. Expect neutral conditions to persist through at least late spring with a growing chance of El Niño in 2026.
Tyne Morgan
By Tyne Morgan

January 08, 2026 02:43 PM

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/2026-weather-outlook-la-ninas-quick-exit-el-ninos-potential-and-signal
Jbob04
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That's great news
ABATTBQ87
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Rained here in Cleburne Burleson area most of the day
SoulSlaveAG2005
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Got an inch in Tyler today.
ABATTBQ87
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0.97" yesterday before the sleet today
Jbob04
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2" last night/this morning in Leon county. Freezing rain tonight
ABATTBQ87
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1.70" of accumulated ice/snow
ought1ag
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1/4" in Pearsall. Just need a dozen more
aggieband 83
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1.6" in Louise from Friday night thru Saturday.
Nothing since then.
ttha_aggie_09
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Was out at the ranch near Concan and it's looking pretty dry. Need some rain to help kickstart spring
Junction71
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.35 of rain with frontal passage in Junction today. I'm thankful for that. My rainwater catchment system, 4 5-gal buckets along roof, were full so used that to water trees and my struggling bluebonnets in rock garden.
ought1ag
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1/4" in both Pearsall and Tilden yesterday afternoon

Very thankful!!
ChoppinDs40
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3" in Collin county. Came a turd floater. We needed it. Had no rain (other than the winter storm stuff), since November.
MagnumLoad
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5" total here since 9/1/25, between Chappel Hill and Bellville. It's grim.
ABATTBQ87
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Based on the timeline of the "Rain is outdoors..." thread (started April 2015) and historical Texas weather data, the thread documents several dramatic shifts between extreme drought and catastrophic flooding.
Here are the key years and events identified within the thread's lifespan:

1. 2015: The "Drought Breaker" (April May)
The thread was created on April 14, 2015, specifically to track the storms that finally ended the "20112015 Drought" (the second worst in Texas history).
* The Flood: May 2015 became the wettest month in Texas history.
* Key Event: The Memorial Day Floods (notably the Blanco River in Wimberley), which saw the river rise 33 feet in three hours.
* Forum Context: Early pages of the thread show users celebrating the "lake fillers" while expressing shock at the scale of the destruction.
2. 2016 2017: Record Rainfall & Hurricanes
* 2016 Floods: Major "Tax Day" floods (April) and Memorial Day floods hit Houston and East Texas for the second year in a row.
* 2017 (Hurricane Harvey): While the thread is for general "Rain," Harvey's massive rainfall (50+ inches in some areas) dominated the discussion in August 2017.
3. 2021 2023: The Return of Exceptional Drought
After several wet years, Texas entered a prolonged dry cycle.
* The Drought: Beginning in late 2021 and intensifying through 2022 and 2023, large swaths of Texas entered "Exceptional Drought" (D4).
* Forum Context: This is the period where the "Greedy" banter is most prevalent. Users in West Texas and the Hill Country post photos of dry lake beds and cracked earth, while coastal users occasionally report small "turd floaters" that miss the reservoirs.
4. 2024: Heavy Spring Flooding
* The Flood: April and May 2024 saw major federal disaster declarations across dozens of Texas counties (including Harris, Dallas, and Liberty) due to continuous severe storms and river flooding.
* Recovery: This period significantly helped refill many East and Central Texas lakes that had been depleted during the 202223 drought.
5. 2025: "Weather Whiplash" (Projected/Recent)
* Drought to Flood: Data indicates that early 2025 saw a continuation of drought in Central Texas, which was abruptly ended by a "1-in-1000 year" precipitation event in July 2025. This event caused major flash flooding in "Flash Flood Alley" (the Hill Country/Guadalupe River area).
Summary Timeline Table
| Year | Primary State | Key Event |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Flood | Ended 5-year drought; Wettest month in TX history (May). |
| 2016 | Flood | Tax Day and Memorial Day floods in Houston/East TX. |
| 2017 | Flood | Hurricane Harvey (Record coastal/Houston rain). |
| 2018-21 | Variable | Mix of normal and wet years; lakes mostly full. |
| 2022 | Drought | Severe agricultural losses; lake levels drop rapidly. |
| 2023 | Drought | Heat dome and extreme lack of rain across the state. |
| 2024 | Flood | Major spring storms; disaster declarations in 100+ counties. |
| 2025 | Whiplash | Exceptional drought followed by July 4th Hill Country floods. |
If you look at the middle pages of that thread (around page 100-150), you will see the tone shift from the "dust bowl" complaints of 2023 to the "enough is enough" flood reports of 2024.
ABATTBQ87
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Bottom line: The thread's wettest chapters (201517, 2024) correlate strongly with El Niño or its aftermath, while the deepest droughts (202223, and stretches of 2025) align with La Niña. The outlook for 2026 a La Niña exit is good news!
ought1ag
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nice work
SoTxAg
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Just enough rain in north SA so far to keep the dust down, keep it coming.
ought1ag
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Nothing in frio county this afternoon
ttha_aggie_09
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Not sure about near Concan right now… waiting on pictures to know for sure
GCRanger
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Just enough to dirty the car. Just inside 410 in NE SA.
ought1ag
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ttha_aggie_09 said:

Not sure about near Concan right now… waiting on pictures to know for sure


My niece is there and she said it "rained good"……take that for what it's worth.
Hehateme1
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0.89" near Brownwood yesterday
ChoppinDs40
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Almost 3" in Collin county since Wednesday.

More coming this week.

Got 50+ plants and shrubs in the ground on Wednesday. Mulch. And yard scalped.

POWPOW things are glowing right now.
Azul88
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Nice rain this evening in eastern Kimble county. I will take it! Not typical hill country spitting rain. Once it stops I will check the gauge.
ought1ag
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1/2" in boerne last night
barnag
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1/2" in Bosque County last night
ABATTBQ87
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2.10" Cleburne Burleson area
Hehateme1
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1.01" near Brownwood overnight
Mr. Dubi
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1.5" Saturday, 1.75" today in SouthGate area of CS
maroon barchetta
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A few minutes ago in South Brazos County. Smaller than the hail we got last March 15th, thankfully.

rab79
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3 inches last night in schleicher county.
Hehateme1
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1.36 " near Brownwood wed night
Hehateme1
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only picked up 0.17" overnight and this am
Monkeypoxfighter
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Looks like a line is trying to form. Come on south!
It only took me a year to figure out this place is nuts!
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