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2025 College Football Team Talent Composite

4,868 Views | 42 Replies | Last: 18 days ago by jamey
Davidtheag
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jamey said:

Gigemags382 said:

I don't see the value in summing up the recruiting ratings of players across multiple years. Sure, it's more directionally correct than randomly generating team rankings, but it's hard to see how relevant a 2022 (or even 2023 & 2024) recruiting ranking is for a player today. There's so much change from year to year.

I would think with as much data and analysis as there is out there, someone would have come up with a more real-time system of rating players based on current/recent performance. I'm sure someone will develop that at some point.


That wont ever happen imo. Guru rankings aren't exactly done by analysis. Their starting point is which teams are recruiting which players and how hard are they recruiting them. Its just a survey of who's recruiting who.

Often, lost in the shuffle is why, so you get kids ranked a lot higher even though programs know they're unlikely to be a player, but due to superior athleticism they take the risk. If the light comes on, watch out. Thats just an example. Point being guru rankings are not quantitative, they're more qualitative. For for that reason, anything that can big picture bucket players more accurately than a sales technique like top 100, or 5 star is an improvement


Football analytics are never going to be on par with Baseball analytics, there's just too many divisions of skillsets in Football.
mm42
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Remember this is based on players high school ratings only. According to this list our 3 lowest rated scholarship players on the roster are Tyler Onyedim, Ar'maj Reed-Adams & Cashius Howell.

jamey
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mm42 said:

Remember this is based on players high school ratings only. According to this list our 3 lowest rated scholarship players on the roster are Tyler Onyedim, Ar'maj Reed-Adams & Cashius Howell.




You're right, they list Conception as a .8825 rated 3 star, not the 4 star he is in the portal


That seems pretty stupid of them. Not that they knocked the portal rankings out of the park but they're better than years old HS rankings

It would make more sense if its just players that have not really played in college yet
Emilio Fantastico
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agie95 said:

The composition isn't truly who is going to be playing. How many QB's are in the 5 star group for a team. Bama has 2, so only 1 is playing. They have 4 DB's that are 5 star. Could they all play? Theoretically, yes. 2 are freshman and 1 is a sophomore. One of the 5 stars is a Oline. For a team that is typically stacked, it is rare a 5 star oline will play meaningful minutes. Yes it happens, but it will take a year or 2 for the strength aspect to be a factor typically.

Georgia has 4-5 star LB's. Fish, 2 soph, 1 jr. They are not all playing at the same time likely specially since there are several high 4 star guys that are upperclassmen.

I take this list more of a barometer of how well you are recruiting according to the recruiting rankings. Do you want to be high on this list? Absolutely, but isn't the be all for a successful season. How well is the team playing together, injuries, lucky bounces, etc all play a part.

2024 Composite list and their finish (hopefully format posts ok):

# on left is composite ranking, # on right is AP finish.
1 - Bama 17
2 - Georgia 6
3 - Ohio St 1
4 - tu 4
5 - Clemson 14
6 - Oregon 3
7 - OU Unranked
8 - LSU Unranked
9 - ND 2
10 - A&M Unranked
11 - Penn St 5


The funny thing about the AP ranking is that #4 lost to #6 TWICE.
Ugly
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agie95 said:

The composition isn't truly who is going to be playing. How many QB's are in the 5 star group for a team. Bama has 2, so only 1 is playing. They have 4 DB's that are 5 star. Could they all play? Theoretically, yes. 2 are freshman and 1 is a sophomore. One of the 5 stars is a Oline. For a team that is typically stacked, it is rare a 5 star oline will play meaningful minutes. Yes it happens, but it will take a year or 2 for the strength aspect to be a factor typically.

Georgia has 4-5 star LB's. Fish, 2 soph, 1 jr. They are not all playing at the same time likely specially since there are several high 4 star guys that are upperclassmen.

I take this list more of a barometer of how well you are recruiting according to the recruiting rankings. Do you want to be high on this list? Absolutely, but isn't the be all for a successful season. How well is the team playing together, injuries, lucky bounces, etc all play a part.

2024 Composite list and their finish (hopefully format posts ok):

# on left is composite ranking, # on right is AP finish.
1 - Bama 17
2 - Georgia 6
3 - Ohio St 1
4 - tu 4
5 - Clemson 14
6 - Oregon 3
7 - OU Unranked
8 - LSU Unranked
9 - ND 2
10 - A&M Unranked
11 - Penn St 5


I think you are trying to prove that the correlation is not there, but I don't agree with that at all. All of the top 6 AP teams are on this list of top 11 talent, and 8 of the top 11 by talent are in the top 17 of AP. That is pretty strong correlation for a measure that doesn't take coaching, experience, "culture", etc. into account.

It should also be mentioned that the "underperformers" in this stat are almost all in the SEC, where they are playing other top talent teams, and therefore get less benefit from having that talent.
NyAggie
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mm42 said:

Remember this is based on players high school ratings only. According to this list our 3 lowest rated scholarship players on the roster are Tyler Onyedim, Ar'maj Reed-Adams & Cashius Howell.




Great point

3 of out overall best players are among our lowest rated coming out of high school

Just goes to show you that ratings guys miss all the time and players can get better as they mature and grow up
agie95
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Ugly said:

agie95 said:

The composition isn't truly who is going to be playing. How many QB's are in the 5 star group for a team. Bama has 2, so only 1 is playing. They have 4 DB's that are 5 star. Could they all play? Theoretically, yes. 2 are freshman and 1 is a sophomore. One of the 5 stars is a Oline. For a team that is typically stacked, it is rare a 5 star oline will play meaningful minutes. Yes it happens, but it will take a year or 2 for the strength aspect to be a factor typically.

Georgia has 4-5 star LB's. Fish, 2 soph, 1 jr. They are not all playing at the same time likely specially since there are several high 4 star guys that are upperclassmen.

I take this list more of a barometer of how well you are recruiting according to the recruiting rankings. Do you want to be high on this list? Absolutely, but isn't the be all for a successful season. How well is the team playing together, injuries, lucky bounces, etc all play a part.

2024 Composite list and their finish (hopefully format posts ok):

# on left is composite ranking, # on right is AP finish.
1 - Bama 17
2 - Georgia 6
3 - Ohio St 1
4 - tu 4
5 - Clemson 14
6 - Oregon 3
7 - OU Unranked
8 - LSU Unranked
9 - ND 2
10 - A&M Unranked
11 - Penn St 5


I think you are trying to prove that the correlation is not there, but I don't agree with that at all. All of the top 6 AP teams are on this list of top 11 talent, and 8 of the top 11 by talent are in the top 17 of AP. That is pretty strong correlation for a measure that doesn't take coaching, experience, "culture", etc. into account.

It should also be mentioned that the "underperformers" in this stat are almost all in the SEC, where they are playing other top talent teams, and therefore get less benefit from having that talent.

I am not saying there is no correlation. I am saying that just b/c you are high on the list it doesn't necessarily mean you will do well. How is the talent stacked? Different positions? Key positions? How much experience does the team have? Last year looking the top 11 in composite rating, I would say 5 teams did not perform according to the ranking alone. That is basically half that did not perform. Having the number 1 in composite ranking and ending at 17th is not a success in my book. Neither is 5th and ending at 14th.
jamey
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agie95 said:

The composition isn't truly who is going to be playing. How many QB's are in the 5 star group for a team. Bama has 2, so only 1 is playing. They have 4 DB's that are 5 star. Could they all play? Theoretically, yes. 2 are freshman and 1 is a sophomore. One of the 5 stars is a Oline. For a team that is typically stacked, it is rare a 5 star oline will play meaningful minutes. Yes it happens, but it will take a year or 2 for the strength aspect to be a factor typically.

Georgia has 4-5 star LB's. Fish, 2 soph, 1 jr. They are not all playing at the same time likely specially since there are several high 4 star guys that are upperclassmen.

I take this list more of a barometer of how well you are recruiting according to the recruiting rankings. Do you want to be high on this list? Absolutely, but isn't the be all for a successful season. How well is the team playing together, injuries, lucky bounces, etc all play a part.

2024 Composite list and their finish (hopefully format posts ok):

# on left is composite ranking, # on right is AP finish.
1 - Bama 17
2 - Georgia 6
3 - Ohio St 1
4 - tu 4
5 - Clemson 14
6 - Oregon 3
7 - OU Unranked
8 - LSU Unranked
9 - ND 2
10 - A&M Unranked
11 - Penn St 5




Depth and luck of the draw on injuries are among the biggest factors in any teams success. How many QBs have we played the last 4 years? Way more than 1 per year

The portal has decreased not only experience but also depth among the haves. It was sloppy a lot longer last season and I expect it again this year. And teams that can usually absorb a handful of injuries will lose a step now
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