Pumpkinhead said:

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wangus12 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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this is a great measuring stick game in my estimation. great teams play to their level regardless of opponent.

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Completely disagree. I think them running a new offense and defense will make this anything but a measuring stick game. We should win, but this is just like playoff Notre Dame early in the season. We're going to be mostly guessing as to what to expect.

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Why would they be running a new offense when the OC is still the same guy?

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It is going to be the same offense with the same schemes and same players and same guy calling the plays.

The only difference given the circumstances might be a 'Devil May Care' attitude on high risk, high reward decisions, such as for example if the Hogs have 4th and 6th at the 50 yard line, Petrino more likely to go 'Ah f***-it, let's go for it.' Or, more likely to go 'Ah f***-it, let's throw at least 10 bombs and see what happens', or more likely to say 'Ah f***-it, let's blitz 10 guys on this play', etc.

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That wasn't the case for them last week.

And it hasn't been the case for UCLA since they fired their coach and the OC took over either.

AgLA06 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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wangus12 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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this is a great measuring stick game in my estimation. great teams play to their level regardless of opponent.

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Completely disagree. I think them running a new offense and defense will make this anything but a measuring stick game. We should win, but this is just like playoff Notre Dame early in the season. We're going to be mostly guessing as to what to expect.

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Why would they be running a new offense when the OC is still the same guy?

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It is going to be the same offense with the same schemes and same players and same guy calling the plays.

The only difference given the circumstances might be a 'Devil May Care' attitude on high risk, high reward decisions, such as for example if the Hogs have 4th and 6th at the 50 yard line, Petrino more likely to go 'Ah f***-it, let's go for it.' Or, more likely to go 'Ah f***-it, let's throw at least 10 bombs and see what happens', or more likely to say 'Ah f***-it, let's blitz 10 guys on this play', etc.

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That wasn't the case for them last week.

And it hasn't been the case for UCLA since they fired their coach and the OC took over either.

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What was notably different regarding their offensive players, schemes, and play calling losing 34-31 @Tennesee than say what you saw when they lost 41-35 @Ole Miss earlier in the season? They seem to be a team with a really good offense ( top-3 in SEC) but that is prone to turnovers and a really bad defense (worst in SEC). Are you expecting to see something different from the Arky team than that?

I think predictions like Ags winning 38-31, 38-28, etc….Ags scoring in mid thirties to low forties, winning by 7-14 points…are pretty good guesses. I don't think we beat them down like Notre Dame did, expect Arkansas offense to have its good moments, but I like A&M to win.

There will be 3 good units in this game (A&M offense, A&M defense, Arkansas offense) and 1 bad unit (Arkansas defense) and I expect that 1 bad unit to result in Arky ultimately losing UNLESS A&M a) loses the turnover difference and b) offensively kills a notable amount of their drives with penalties. But if A&M protects the ball and plays a relatively clean game, then I think the math of Arky's poor defense will be the lead weight dragging then down.

How good are the defenses that Arky has played? They effectively did nothing against ND but what about the others? Are we seeing inflated #'s due to poor defenses played or are they really good offensively?

Regardless I think Elko will have the defense ready for this game.

Iraq2xVeteran said:

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tk111 said:

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This is what I've been going with all week. The whole "but but but Bobby P is back!" thing is absolutely baffling to me. That clown has been there the whole time as OC.

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Yes, Bobby Petrino has been their OC or interim head coach since last season. His offense would start strong in the first half before sputtering in the second half during their 4-game losing streak.

9/13: 41-35 loss at Ole Miss: 28 points in 1st half but only 7 in the 2nd half.
9/20: 32-31 loss at Memphis: 28 points in 1st half but only 3 in the 2nd half.
9/27: 56-13 home loss to Notre Dame: 13 pints in the 1st half but shutout in the 2nd half

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I think I know why they got shutout in the 2nd half

oh, the model says blowout city in Fayetteville on Sunday

Please please please be the Marcel breakout game with 5 passing TDs

Does weather factor at all in your numbers ?

I always feel better after Spreadsheet Ag posts.

KCup17 said:

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How good are the defenses that Arky has played? They effectively did nothing against ND but what about the others? Are we seeing inflated #'s due to poor defenses played or are they really good offensively?

Regardless I think Elko will have the defense ready for this game.

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Tennessee has only one team worse than their defense (in the SEC), and Ags play them Saturday. Ole piss is not much better than Tennessee. Memphis beat them only because Arky couldn't hold on to the ball. Seems to be a theme for them and if the field is wet, there's going to be plenty of opportunities for Ags to cause turnovers.

What did this say last year and the year before? Is there a way to search for the site?

Just know we've had too many close games (one possession, fluke plays, etc.) and have won the majority. Just curious if we have been favored or heavily favored via Spreadsheet Ags analysis.

90ags said:

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What did this say last year and the year before? Is there a way to search for the site?

Just know we've had too many close games (one possession, fluke plays, etc.) and have won the majority. Just curious if we have been favored or heavily favored via Spreadsheet Ags analysis.

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Jimbo's 2021 and 2022 seasons F'd me... we even beat LSU when I predicted a loss... and then last year when Moss went down; we had a season of stats with him and he was alas irreplaceable...

There are some other anomolies - like last year vs Mizzou I predicted a tight game and we blew them out

I live close to Fayetteville and I'm amazed at the number of people who find out I'm going to the game and respond with some version of "Well, that's not much to worry about" or similar. Conventional wisdom is we should win easily.

Spread, You know your model's getting good, when you have to put a disclaimer right before it ;-).

Cajun Ag 86 said:

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I live close to Fayetteville and I'm amazed at the number of people who find out I'm going to the game and respond with some version of "Well, that's not much to worry about" or similar. Conventional wisdom is we should win easily.

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I live north of little rock and everyone down here is saying the same thing. They've lost all hope for their team.

KCup17 said:

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How good are the defenses that Arky has played? They effectively did nothing against ND but what about the others? Are we seeing inflated #'s due to poor defenses played or are they really good offensively?

Regardless I think Elko will have the defense ready for this game.

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Their offense is very good even when adjusted for opponent - like top-5 good. Their defense is really bad, like bottom-10 bad, when adjusted for opponent.

KCup17 said:

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How good are the defenses that Arky has played? They effectively did nothing against ND but what about the others? Are we seeing inflated #'s due to poor defenses played or are they really good offensively?

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In 2025 season, these are the teams Arkansas played and their Total Defense ranking as per cfbstats.com:

Memphis 30
Ole Miss 49
Notre Dame 58
Tennessee 102
Arkansas State 126
Alabama A&M (not ranked; SWAC; FCS)

SpreadsheetAg said:

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AgOutsideAustin said:

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Does weather factor at all in your numbers ?

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Yes, I have it pulling data from NOAA and Windy and it refreshes every 5 minutes. it also pulls in data from the gravitational pull of the moon and magnetic forces from Germany.

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Will never forgive them for bombing Pearl Harbor !!

AgLA06 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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wangus12 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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this is a great measuring stick game in my estimation. great teams play to their level regardless of opponent.

---

Completely disagree. I think them running a new offense and defense will make this anything but a measuring stick game. We should win, but this is just like playoff Notre Dame early in the season. We're going to be mostly guessing as to what to expect.

---

Why would they be running a new offense when the OC is still the same guy?

---

It is going to be the same offense with the same schemes and same players and same guy calling the plays.

The only difference given the circumstances might be a 'Devil May Care' attitude on high risk, high reward decisions, such as for example if the Hogs have 4th and 6th at the 50 yard line, Petrino more likely to go 'Ah f***-it, let's go for it.' Or, more likely to go 'Ah f***-it, let's throw at least 10 bombs and see what happens', or more likely to say 'Ah f***-it, let's blitz 10 guys on this play', etc.

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That wasn't the case for them last week.

And it hasn't been the case for UCLA since they fired their coach and the OC took over either.

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UCLA's defense has been WAY better since they fired they're coach. They've been ahead or at least close in pretty much all quarters they've played, allowing their offense to work better, not having, for example, tons of 3rd and longs.

AgLA06 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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wangus12 said:

---

AgLA06 said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

---

this is a great measuring stick game in my estimation. great teams play to their level regardless of opponent.

---

Completely disagree. I think them running a new offense and defense will make this anything but a measuring stick game. We should win, but this is just like playoff Notre Dame early in the season. We're going to be mostly guessing as to what to expect.

---

Why would they be running a new offense when the OC is still the same guy?

---

It is going to be the same offense with the same schemes and same players and same guy calling the plays.

The only difference given the circumstances might be a 'Devil May Care' attitude on high risk, high reward decisions, such as for example if the Hogs have 4th and 6th at the 50 yard line, Petrino more likely to go 'Ah f***-it, let's go for it.' Or, more likely to go 'Ah f***-it, let's throw at least 10 bombs and see what happens', or more likely to say 'Ah f***-it, let's blitz 10 guys on this play', etc.

---

That wasn't the case for them last week.

And it hasn't been the case for UCLA since they fired their coach and the OC took over either.

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They did go for a 4th and 4 within field goal range in the first half that Pittman probably wouldn't have. Ironically, the final score had them losing by 3…

The only reason fans are worried about this game is because they are trying to hedge their own emotional pain. We match up very well with Arkansas and should crush them.

Based on your model vs. the spread. Time to bet the farm.

redjalapeno-87 said:

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KCup17 said:

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How good are the defenses that Arky has played? They effectively did nothing against ND but what about the others? Are we seeing inflated #'s due to poor defenses played or are they really good offensively?

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In 2025 season, these are the teams Arkansas played and their Total Defense ranking as per cfbstats.com:

Memphis 30
Ole Miss 49
Notre Dame 58
Tennessee 102
Arkansas State 126
Alabama A&M (not ranked; SWAC; FCS)

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Here's my problem with a team like Memphis and their defensive numbers.

Chattanooga, Georgia State, Troy, Florida Atlantic, Tulsa, Alabama Birmingham. They did play Arkansas and yet that 30th ranked defense is supposed to be impressive? I can do the same thing with Ole piss. Arkansas hasn't faced a defense like this. Its ridiculous to try and justify otherwise.

Thanks for providing!

Piggy hates us and many games have been very close but I think we win by 14 maybe even by 20 points.

ArkyAg99 said:

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redjalapeno-87 said:

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KCup17 said:

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How good are the defenses that Arky has played? They effectively did nothing against ND but what about the others? Are we seeing inflated #'s due to poor defenses played or are they really good offensively?

---

In 2025 season, these are the teams Arkansas played and their Total Defense ranking as per cfbstats.com:

Memphis 30
Ole Miss 49
Notre Dame 58
Tennessee 102
Arkansas State 126
Alabama A&M (not ranked; SWAC; FCS)

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Here's my problem with a team like Memphis and their defensive numbers.

Chattanooga, Georgia State, Troy, Florida Atlantic, Tulsa, Alabama Birmingham. They did play Arkansas and yet that 30th ranked defense is supposed to be impressive? I can do the same thing with Ole piss. Arkansas hasn't faced a defense like this. Its ridiculous to try and justify otherwise.

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I don't think he was justifying otherwise. I had asked the question of how their scheduled opponents defenses rank compared to ours. Safe to say, categorically, we will be the best defense Arkansas has faced up to this point.

For it has been written.

SpreadsheetAg said:

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90ags said:

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What did this say last year and the year before? Is there a way to search for the site?

Just know we've had too many close games (one possession, fluke plays, etc.) and have won the majority. Just curious if we have been favored or heavily favored via Spreadsheet Ags analysis.

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Jimbo's 2021 and 2022 seasons F'd me... we even beat LSU when I predicted a loss... and then last year when Moss went down; we had a season of stats with him and he was alas irreplaceable...

There are some other anomolies - like last year vs Mizzou I predicted a tight game and we blew them out

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The 2018 LSU point delta is comical. 99 point difference in projected vs actual!

Wasn't trying to be an ass. Trying to illustrate how numbers can be misleading. A&M will be the best defense they have seen this year by far. Ags should dominate, assuming they keep Green contained. If they don't, could be a long day. York has a huge day and Ags win by three scores.

ArkyAg99 said:

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Cajun Ag 86 said:

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I live close to Fayetteville and I'm amazed at the number of people who find out I'm going to the game and respond with some version of "Well, that's not much to worry about" or similar. Conventional wisdom is we should win easily.

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I live north of little rock and everyone down here is saying the same thing. They've lost all hope for their team.

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I live NW of LR, Hog Fans are getting a bit jumpy about the weather.
Lot of talk about Hogs having the advantage in the mud..

Blue Chip said:

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ArkyAg99 said:

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Cajun Ag 86 said:

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I live close to Fayetteville and I'm amazed at the number of people who find out I'm going to the game and respond with some version of "Well, that's not much to worry about" or similar. Conventional wisdom is we should win easily.

---

I live north of little rock and everyone down here is saying the same thing. They've lost all hope for their team.

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I live NW of LR, Hog Fans are getting a bit jumpy about the weather.
Lot of talk about Hogs having the advantage in the mud..

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Why would that be?

TAMUallen said:

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Blue Chip said:

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ArkyAg99 said:

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Cajun Ag 86 said:

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I live close to Fayetteville and I'm amazed at the number of people who find out I'm going to the game and respond with some version of "Well, that's not much to worry about" or similar. Conventional wisdom is we should win easily.

---

I live north of little rock and everyone down here is saying the same thing. They've lost all hope for their team.

---

I live NW of LR, Hog Fans are getting a bit jumpy about the weather.
Lot of talk about Hogs having the advantage in the mud..

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Why would that be?

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Cuz pigs love the mud!

Trigger06 said:

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TAMUallen said:

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Blue Chip said:

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ArkyAg99 said:

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Cajun Ag 86 said:

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I live close to Fayetteville and I'm amazed at the number of people who find out I'm going to the game and respond with some version of "Well, that's not much to worry about" or similar. Conventional wisdom is we should win easily.

---

I live north of little rock and everyone down here is saying the same thing. They've lost all hope for their team.

---

I live NW of LR, Hog Fans are getting a bit jumpy about the weather.
Lot of talk about Hogs having the advantage in the mud..

---

Why would that be?

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Cuz pigs love the mud!

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Wolfpac 08 said:

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Trigger06 said:

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TAMUallen said:

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Blue Chip said:

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ArkyAg99 said:

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Cajun Ag 86 said:

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I live close to Fayetteville and I'm amazed at the number of people who find out I'm going to the game and respond with some version of "Well, that's not much to worry about" or similar. Conventional wisdom is we should win easily.

---

I live north of little rock and everyone down here is saying the same thing. They've lost all hope for their team.

---

I live NW of LR, Hog Fans are getting a bit jumpy about the weather.
Lot of talk about Hogs having the advantage in the mud..

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Why would that be?

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Cuz pigs love the mud!

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ABATTBQ87 said:

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so a lot different than the 1985 game

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Didn't Harry Johnson score the first TD against ND in the Cotton Bowl? No. 21? Never heard much of him after that. Kinda like Dante Hawkins's later