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2025 StatSim: Texas A&M at LSU

5,081 Views | 58 Replies | Last: 19 min ago by TheDecadeSapling
SpreadsheetAg
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7:10a
AG


(Good to meet you at church Sunday, Kirk... IYKYK )
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The Ghost of Johnny
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7:12a
AG
Thank you!
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AggieAces06
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7:12a
AG
You must have done this one before going camping this week.

Looks like it's gonna be a close game…

Great job as always!
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TheDecadeSapling
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7:16a
AG
Spreadsheet, do you know roughly how our bad defensive showing vs Arkansas impacted the model?
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A is A
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7:18a
AG
The GOAT
A is A
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wangus12
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 7:21a
AG
Does your algorithm take home field advantage into account?
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Ugly
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7:22a
AG
So team that wins second quarter wins the game?
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DE4D
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7:23a
SpreadsheetAg
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In reply to wangus12 • 7:27a
AG
wangus12 said:
Does your algorithm take home field advantage into account?

Yes
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A is A
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7:29a
AG
Kirk sounds like a nice person
A is A
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SpreadsheetAg
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7:48a
AG
Aaron Anderson scares me honestly... last year he had 3 catches for 126 yards, one was a 76 yarder where he split our defense and just cruised to a TD
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OKC~Ag
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8:00a
thank you

modeling very tight

I hope we over perform against lsu
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boyfriend
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8:03a
low scoring and a one score game so turnovers and/or special teams might decide it
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Bill Superman
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8:19a
AG
I'd hate to see formula III.
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TheDecadeSapling
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In reply to Bill Superman • 8:28a
AG
It would predict 23-22. Ags still win
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Wolfpac 08
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8:32a
AG
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MaroonStain
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In reply to boyfriend • 8:44a
AG
boyfriend said:
low scoring and a one score game so turnovers and/or special teams might decide it


Plus crowd and "home cooking". I am expecting at least 2 fitty fitty penalties to go against us. Also, we have had at least 1 (if not 2) quarter each game that we go stagnant on BOTH offense and defense.

All the makings of a 4th quarter game!!!

LFG!
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V8Aggie
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8:48a
AG
Hopefully we dont get two touchdowns removed from the board…
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Matsui
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 8:49a
AG
Thank you!
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DTX_12
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8:58a
AG
I know it's almost impossible to think this way as a long time Ag fan, especially because we've never won in Baton Rouge, but it just kind of feels like it might be the time we get a big win. I think we are going to win by 10+
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evestor1
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9:07a
My LSU friends hate their qb and wonder why they don't run more. State that LSU passes too much considering their running game is better.



I am hoping the rain doesn't change this stat simulation with run vs. pass
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TheBonifaceOption
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In reply to evestor1 • 9:14a
evestor1 said:
My LSU friends hate their qb and wonder why they don't run more. State that LSU passes too much considering their running game is better.



I am hoping the rain doesn't change this stat simulation with run vs. pass

The problem is Nuss is capable of going first round.

The mentality since old Butterteeth is that you put the ball in the hands of your best players. LSU has more faith in Nuss than their RBs.
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Bill Superman
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In reply to TheDecadeSapling • 9:36a
AG
TheDecadeSapling said:
It would predict 23-22. Ags still win
Where's the formula where we blow them out.
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jsc8116
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9:44a
AG
Does this factor in their starting LT likely being out?
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SpreadsheetAg
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In reply to jsc8116 • 9:45a
AG
jsc8116 said:
Does this factor in their starting LT likely being out?

of course it cannot
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TheDecadeSapling
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In reply to Bill Superman • 11:23a
AG
Well judging from the trend, that would be formula -10.
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BCO07
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11:29a
AG
Does this factor in the moon phase?
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SpreadsheetAg
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In reply to BCO07 • 11:36a
AG
BCO07 said:
Does this factor in the moon phase?

Yes, of course!

(But only from the alternate reality where the Germans bombed it!)
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Athanasius
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11:51a
AG
I trust Spreadsheet, but my AI is coming up with we lose 3 of 5 times. Homefield advantage at night is the deciding factor.

  • Simulation 1: Texas A&M 27, LSU 24
  • Simulation 2: Texas A&M 31, LSU 35
  • Simulation 3: Texas A&M 20, LSU 23
  • Simulation 4: Texas A&M 38, LSU 33
  • Simulation 5: Texas A&M 24, LSU 28
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    JohnClark929
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    11:56a
    Need to improve on interceptions on both sides, but the overall stats look good.
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    Bottlehead90
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    12:01p
    AG
    I want to believe
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    Sparkie
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    12:16p
    AG
    Always enjoy these
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    SpreadsheetAg
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    In reply to JohnClark929 • 12:18p
    AG
    JohnClark929 said:
    Need to improve on interceptions on both sides, but the overall stats look good.

    It's a pretty major red flag statistic. LSU gets more than 1 TO from us, and our chances go down alot.
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    ArlingtonAg2015
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    12:21p
    AG
    Curious if you've tracked your model's accuracy since you been posting these?
    If yes, what's the accuracy rate on predicting the winner for each model?
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    RC_57
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    12:24p
    AG
    And is the accuracy trending up or down, or flat?
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