Texas should be rooting for singular ACC or B12 teams in the CFP.
Those getting a 2nd in is what keeps them out (at 9-3).

Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon all get in at 10-2 or better (3)
Same for all 10-2 SEC teams - 4 is likely, possibly 5. (4)

ACC, B12, 5th conference champ (3)

That's 10 spots taken.

10-2 Notre Dame is in
2nd team from ACC or B12 at 10-2 is probably in.

So Texas at 9-3 would need Notre Dame to lose and BOTH ACC and B12 to only have one 10-2 or better team.

If you look at the ACC - the top teams don't all play each other so there are multiple paths to multiple teams at 10-2. Even Miami could get there and not play in ACC Championship game.

B12 will sort itself out a little more. But you could end up with B12 Championship being 11-1 BYU vs 11-1 TT and 10-2 Utah at home.

There will be upsets and chaos but there would need to be a LOT for 9-3 Texas to make the playoff.

1876er said:

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TAMUallen said:

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Jimbo4win said:

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Nobody overrates tu's importance more than Texags.

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They've barely won against Kentucky, Mississippi State and now Vanderbilt. Yet they are back at 13 with 2 losses.

Nobody overrates tu more than polls

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Who is ranked behind Texas that should be ahead of them?

We barely beat Auburn and Arkansas, and are ranked #3

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Neither of those teams ever had a lead in the fourth quarter, or took us into overtime.

Check his post history. He literally never says anything positive. Shows up on game threads when we are losing and then he dips out when we start winning.

BMX Bandit said:

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I think a 3 loss Texas team will for sure be in the mix.

There are still too many game to say they are for sure we knocked out with three losses.

Barring some crazy scenario, They are for sure behind us, bama, UGA, ole miss, Ohio state, Oregon, Indiana, ND, big 12 winner, ACC winner and G5. That leaves 1 spot.

We will have to see tonight with a committee ranks them tonight compared to teams like Miami, GT, tech & BYu

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For sure, though?

fo'sho'do

maroonthrunthru said:

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…STILL makes the playoffs, then you'll KNOW it's rigged…

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Doesn't matter. Just keep winning. Winning solves everything. Nobody will be under ranked or go without awards if the Aggies keep winning.

Iraq2xVeteran said:

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I don't think Texas will get in with a 3rd loss, and I think Georgia will beat Texas on 11/15 to eliminate them.

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Eliminate with authority.

at #11 now, a 3 loss Texas team will be in the mix for a spot.

4 loss has zero shot. (For sure)

maroonthrunthru said:

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…STILL makes the playoffs, then you'll KNOW it's rigged…

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No way in hell. Texas will be done and will self implode. They lose next 3 straight games.

I can see 9-3 texas getting in if they beat Georgia and Ark

They can also get in if they beat us but lose to the Georgia, though I think this is lower odds (based on FPI rankings today). https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

Medaggie said:

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ExtremeRush said:

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jphelmet said:

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ExtremeRush said:

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jphelmet said:

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tu has about a 70% chance of getting in at 9-3. They would have beaten either us or uga, so adding a top 5 win.

We have a 99.9% at 10-2. Anyone who thinks otherwise really has no clue what they are talking about.

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Agree on our odds at 10-2 but tu's odds are close to 0% at 9-3. They're not in most brackets today with only 2 losses. No 3 loss team is getting in.

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Are you unaware of the computer models that give probabilities or you just don't trust any of them? I am not spit balling 70%.

There is a third of the season left to play, there will be loads of teams with 2 and 3 losses at the end. We had a path with 3 losses last year until the last game of the season.

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No 3 loss teams have ever made it. Our only path last year was because we could have made the SEC CG with 3 losses (2 in conference) and would have needed to win that game. This season, there will almost certainly not be a team with 2 conference losses who makes the SEC CG. Therefore, one more loss by tu would eliminate them from SEC CG contention.

Please show me a model that says they have a 70% chance to get in at 9-3. They have a 33% chance today at 7-2. If they lose to Georgia that probably goes down to below 15%.

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https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor2025/2025-college-football-allstate-playoff-bracket-predictor

They currently have texas as 54% chance to make it. Click on them beating Ark then pick them to win one of Ga/A&M. Then pick them to not make the SEC CG which they won't with 2 loses. It gives you about 75% chance.

There are only 2 good conferences and the SEC will most likely get 5 teams. A&M, Ga, Bama, Ole Miss. Who is the 5th? It will be Vandy vs texas vs OU and they hold the tie breaker. The tOSU close loss will not hurt their chances in the committee. I think a texas 3 loss team goes above vandy with 2 losses.

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The more I think about it, I was incorrect to say the chances of a 9-3 team getting in are near 0%. It's much higher than that but I still don't think it's likely. But it's not that crazy to think that if there is some more chaos that happens, a 9-3 OU or 9-3 tu could sneak in as they'd have some strong wins.

Lol, a LOT revised forecast posts on here now from people who swore a 9-3 tu had no chance of getting in the playoffs. Did you guys honestly think anything had changed just because it's the year 2025 and we now have "playoffs"? The "bluebloods" will always get special treatment that puts them in the position to succeed.

FL_Ag1998 said:

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Lol, a LOT revised forecast posts on here now from people who swore a 9-3 tu had no chance of getting in the playoffs. Did you guys honestly think anything had changed just because it's the year 2025 and we now have "playoffs"? The "bluebloods" will always get special treatment that puts them in the position to succeed.

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You had the worst take of anyone suggesting that an 8-4 tu would get consideration. Laughably bad. And 9-3 tu still most likely doesn't make it, but the odds are higher than 0%.

ExtremeRush said:

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FL_Ag1998 said:

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Lol, a LOT revised forecast posts on here now from people who swore a 9-3 tu had no chance of getting in the playoffs. Did you guys honestly think anything had changed just because it's the year 2025 and we now have "playoffs"? The "bluebloods" will always get special treatment that puts them in the position to succeed.

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You had the worst take of anyone suggesting that an 8-4 tu would get consideration. Laughably bad. And 9-3 tu still most likely doesn't make it, but the odds are higher than 0%.

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There you go...still can't admit you were wrong, lol. Laughably wrong.

You're conveniently skipping over my take that a 9-3 tu would be in the mix for the playoffs when so many of you told us to take it the bank they wouldn't.

And to make it crystal clear to you, since you have a hard time with comprehension, I said some media members and likely some committee members would want to consider an 8-4 tu who had lost to OSU, GA, and A&M teams that were in the top 5. Didn't say they had a chance of making the playoffs, just that you'd hear some people arguing they should be the 5th SEC team in. I stand by that.

Quote:

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Lol, a LOT revised forecast posts on here now from people who swore a 9-3 tu had no chance of getting in the playoffs

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Who are you referring to? Extreme Rush? He admitted he was wrong. You should follow his example on your four loss prediction.

FL_Ag1998 said:

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ExtremeRush said:

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FL_Ag1998 said:

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Lol, a LOT revised forecast posts on here now from people who swore a 9-3 tu had no chance of getting in the playoffs. Did you guys honestly think anything had changed just because it's the year 2025 and we now have "playoffs"? The "bluebloods" will always get special treatment that puts them in the position to succeed.

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You had the worst take of anyone suggesting that an 8-4 tu would get consideration. Laughably bad. And 9-3 tu still most likely doesn't make it, but the odds are higher than 0%.

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There you go...still can't admit you were wrong, lol. Laughably wrong.

You're conveniently skipping over my take that a 9-3 tu would be in the mix for the playoffs when so many of you told us to take it the bank they wouldn't.

And to make it crystal clear to you, since you have a hard time with comprehension, I said some media members and likely some committee members would want to consider an 8-4 tu who had lost to OSU, GA, and A&M teams that were in the top 5. Didn't say they had a chance of making the playoffs, just that you'd hear some people arguing they should be the 5th SEC team in. I stand by that.

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Still can't admit that I was wrong? I just posted a few messages above that I was incorrect in saying that tu's odds at 9-3 is 0%. Did you miss that?

Respectfully, no, no media members or committee members will want to consider tu at 8-4. Their loss to Georgia would take them down to somewhere around 18 - 20th in the rankings and the loss to us would likely remove them from the rankings.