Hollinger's big value for free agency:
Skipping Myles Turner and Naz Reid
3. Brook Lopez, Bucks, $21,501,456Lopez deserves more than the nontaxpayer MLE, but getting somebody to pay it to him could prove problematic. The Nets don't need him, so he's depending on either Milwaukee's participation in a sign-and-trade or a strong offer from the Bucks to keep him. (Milwaukee has full Bird rights on Lopez, but his deal cannot be extended.)
If he finds an unfriendly market relative to the BORD$ value above, one thing Lopez could do is a two-year MLE deal for $29 million with a second-year player option that allows him to re-enter free agency a year from now. One thing that seems certain is that he won't lack for suitors at this price (keep an eye on Houston after the Rockets got to the 1-yard line with him two summers ago), which is why I suspect he'll be bid up above the MLE and end up either in a sign-and-trade or back with the Bucks.
Lopez is also eligible for a no-trade clause from the Bucks, which makes no sense from Milwaukee's perspective but would be objectively hilarious.
Skipping Hortford
5. Clint Capela, Hawks, $15,155,239This is a rather optimistic reading of the 31-year-old Capela's market after he lost his starting job in Atlanta to Onyeka Okongwu last season. The Hawks have full Bird rights on Capela and could even extend him before free agency begins, but Atlanta has other offseason priorities and lacks infinite salary space.
If the Hawks draft a center with one of their two first-round picks (13th and 22nd), it seems unlikely Capela would be back. Capela is stretched as a starter but would be one of the best backup centers in the league; one wonders how he'd look in LA reunited with his old pick-and-roll partner James Harden. Note that Atlanta's Bird rights on Capela, in concert with his high salary last season, make sign-and-trades a distinct possibility.
6. Luke Kornet, Celtics, $13,834,865The Green Kornet rises! Boston's 7-foot-2 insurance center was pressed into service for 73 games last season and turned out to be quite good, impacting games with his size as a rim runner and shot blocker. Kornet shot 67.5 percent and drew fouls at a high rate, proved to be a good passer on the roll who averaged nearly four assists for every turnover and posted a 4.8 percent block rate.
Those are borderline starter numbers, and while Kornet's limited track record and age (he turns 30 in July) will work against him, he's earned a significant raise from his minimum deal. He's also a fairly essential player for Boston to keep if it either loses Horford or trades Kristaps Porziis.
7. Paul Reed, Pistons, $10,110,334No, I did not hack the BORD$ formula. I swear! B-ball Paul and Kornet were pretty clearly the two best third-string centers in the league, but Kornet got a lot more run because of Boston's injuries.
Reed is an acquired taste at just 6-9 with an iffy perimeter game and a proclivity for adventurous ballhandling. He also fouls on every play (8.2 personals per 100 possessions last season). But over time, his strengths outweigh his weaknesses. Reed runs the floor, zips around as a screener and is disruptive on defense (4.3 steals per 100 from a center is amazing). Somehow, some way, he always ends up with more assists than turnovers as well.
Reed isn't needed in Detroit, where the Pistons already have Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, but his mobility and ability to play some power forward would make him a fit with an up-tempo team. At age 25, his next few years should be his best.
8. Kevon Looney, Warriors, $9,505,471This number probably surprises people, especially because Looney is just 6-9, doesn't exude athleticism and has made two 3s over the last four seasons. Nonetheless, Looney has low-key value as a backup center because he's a monstrous rebounder (21.8 percent rebound rate last season, 10th in the league among players who played at least 500 minutes) who still makes an impact on defense when he doesn't have to switch.
Skeptics will point to his physical issues and question his fit outside the Warriors' unique system. However, Looney has missed only 14 games over the past four seasons, and he's only 29. At the very least, he should be a useful backup for the room exception. Golden State, alas, may not be the right fit for him anymore, as the Warriors have other priorities with sub-apron money and a developing alternative in Quinten Post (below).
9. Day'Ron Sharpe, Nets, $9,116,630 (R)The Nets have oodles of cap room and likely will use at least some of it to keep Sharpe on a team-friendly deal following the end of his rookie contract. The Nets have matching rights as long as they make a $5.98 million qualifying offer and shouldn't face serious threats of an offer sheet given their ability to match.
Sharpe has a cap hold for $11.97 million, which is high enough that the Nets likely would sign him to a deal early in the free-agent process to get his new number on the books instead of the $11.97 million number.
However, watch for Brooklyn to front-load the deal and add the maximum allowable 15 percent in incentives, specifically ones that are "unlikely" as far as the cap rules are concerned, but are achievable for Sharpe. The front-loading helps the Nets manage their cap in future seasons when the rest of the roster is likely to be more expensive, while the incentives are to let him agree to a lower guaranteed salary that would operate as his cap number hit season.
Imagine, for instance, a four-year, $40 million deal where $6 million of it is incentives; front-loading it would mean the first year would come in just under $11.5 million, but $1.5 million of it would be "unlikely" incentives that drag the cap number down below $10 million for 2025-26. The contract would then contain 8 percent declines to a final season of $8.6 million, of which $1.3 million would be incentives.
14. Larry Nance Jr., HawksNance gets hurt every year, playing only 24 games last season and never playing more than 67 in any of his 10 pro seasons, but he remains effective when he's on the court. Nance shot 44.7 percent from 3 last season; while he's unlikely to repeat that performance, his 35.3 percent career mark is indicative of some stretch capability. He's also a smart passer and a crafty screener. His 32-year-old legs still uncorked 16 dunks in 463 minutes.
Nance's biggest downside comes defensively, where he's a 6-8 guy masquerading as a center. While experience, mobility and leaping make up for some of it, he doesn't protect the rim or rebound like a true center, and on a good team, he would probably split time between the two frontcourt slots.
Atlanta will have full Bird rights on Nance but has other priorities in free agency, including signing another center to go ahead of him on the depth chart. While the Hawks value him in the locker room, Nance wants to play and thus might not be back.
------
PFs:
9. Jabari Walker, Trail Blazers, $7,334,585 (R)This number is probably a surprise, as Walker was an afterthought in Portland's rotation a year ago; there were just too many bigs in the queue ahead of him. That could make him an under-the-radar pickup someplace else; Walker shot 38.9 percent from 3 and is only 22 and has always been effective as a paint finisher and rebounder in his three pro seasons.
Portland will have restricted free-agent rights on him if the Blazers make his qualifying offer for a piddling $2.4 million, but the Blazers would likely flinch at a decent offer sheet since they have tax issues and a surfeit of bigs. It's hard to see retaining Walker being a huge priority for them.
10. Guerschon Yabusele, Sixers, $6,448,720"The Dancing Bear" was one of the few
pleasant surprises in Philly last season, coming over late in summer after a strong Paris Olympics and starting 43 games.
He ended up averaging double figures (11.0), shooting 38.0 percent from 3, holding up better than expected defensively and creating a completely unexpected conundrum for this summer: How does Philly keep him? Yabusele signed a one-year minimum deal in 2024, and the Sixers have no Bird rights, so they have to use exception money to retain him. Also, remember that using more than the taxpayer MLE would cap Philly at the first apron, which isn't impossible but would require a fairly impressive feat of cap limbo.
Fortunately, this BORD$ value suggests a fair solution: a one-plus-one deal with a player option for the taxpayer MLE of $5.685 million. That's a bit below Yabusele's BORD$ estimate, but it's offset by the ability to opt out for greater riches with early Bird rights a year from now. Meanwhile, it offers the secure fallback of a $6.2 million option for the 2026-27 season if things don't go as he hoped.
11. Chris Boucher, Raptors, $5,615,423Amid the general decrepitude in Toronto last season, Boucher quietly had one of his best seasons at age 32; notably, he jacked up his 3-point volume and knocked down 36.3 percent of his deliveries.
While Boucher is too thin to take many minutes at center, his secondary shot blocking is a real plus, and he's a threat as a rim runner when he isn't bombing from the corners. On a good team, he probably works best as a fourth big, but there should be a short-term deal out there for him.
----
Kornet is still my favorite. I could deal with a 1+1 deal for Lopez. He'd be a good leader for the team and would give us serious size. Then BAE for Yabusele seems like it is a done deal.
Then a vet min depth guy. Maybe Taj Gibson for the leadership. Jock Landale, Mamu, etc