What should we expect from Shoe?

Burger was his 2nd most productive hitter and Shoe was instrumental in bringing Burger to Texas, from what I understand.

Let's talk about '23 Marlins. What was Schumaker working with?

SP: Luzardo (25, 32GS, 3.58), Garrett (25, 30GS, 3.66), Alcantara (27, 28GS, 4.14),
SP: Cabrera (25, 20GS, 4.24), Perez (20, 19GS, 3.15), Cueto (37, 10GS, 6.02)
SP: 8th in MLB with a 4.09. Texas 7th w/ 3.96 in '23
RP: 21st in MLB w/ 4.37. 43 Saves in 74 chances. Texas = 24th w/4.77 in '23

Hitting in '23
Texas: .263 (2nd), 881 Runs (3rd), 233 HRs (3rd)
Miami: .259 (4th) 666 Runs (26th), 166 HRs (22nd)

Texas: 10 Sac Bunts (22nd), 47 Sac Flies (5th)
Miami: 22 Sac Bunts (4th), 38 Sac Flies (17th)

Key players on O
Luiz Arraez (26, 128 OPS+), Jake Burger (27, 125 OPS+), Jorge Soler (31, 123 OPS+)
Josh Bell (30, 114 OPS+), Jesus Sanchez (25, 104 OPS+) Jazz Chisholm Jr (25, 99 OPS+)

They were a -57 Run differential, finished 84-78 as WC2.

You're aware of Bochy's background as both a player and coach, yes?

Yes

Priority #1. Get 600 plate appearances out of Seager and Langford. Not total. Each.

And, Yankees??? Wth? Down 23-3. Makes me wish Ole Boring TEX could have had a shot at the post-season. Nobody would hang 2 dozen runs on them in 2 games.

94chem said:

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Priority #1. Get 600 plate appearances out of Seager and Langford. Not total. Each.

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12.0 WAR in 236 games between the 2 of them. Langford's OPS was up 35 points in the same # of games (134) as 2024. Seager had a 6.1 WAR in 102 games.

Can we wish yet??? What does Luis Arraez do as a 1st baseman for 3 yrs 60do? I know the billionaire owner says "payroll uncertainty" but can a high average, low homer 1st baseman fit here? I realize that # probably wont get it done… but its a good starting point. I also acknowledge Tellez, Burger contracts…… just spitballing the offseason…..

alvtimes said:

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Can we wish yet??? What does Luis Arraez do as a 1st baseman for 3 yrs 60do? I know the billionaire owner says "payroll uncertainty" but can a high average, low homer 1st baseman fit here? I realize that # probably wont get it done… but its a good starting point. I also acknowledge Tellez, Burger contracts…… just spitballing the offseason…..

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Basically similar career trajectory as Mark Grace. Yes, please.

Tellez is a FA.

Burger is an Arb1.

Arraez played for Shoe/Shu in Miami.

Arraez has 19 SH/SB w/21 SO. 99 OPS+
Burger has 3 SH/SB w/93 SO. 99 OPS+

General skimming of projections has him in the $15-20M per range, with most expecting at least a 5 year deal. I think his style of play is more what the league is headed towards. Old fashioned NL small-ball of moving runners and manufacturing runs. However, the lack of power will always play poorly in contract negotiations.

He will be 29 to start the season, so I'm guessing he will either take a 1-yr pillow contract to see if he can get a bigger one after the season, or he'll take the years (5+) with a modest ACV.

I think he is the type of player you are trying to develop from Freeman. I think Shoe goes to Freeman and says, "Go watch as much of Luiz Arraez hitting as you can. He played for me in MIami. That's what I want from you in 2026."

The problem is what to do with Pederson and his $18M. He avg 136 OPS+ the 3 yrs prior to joining the Rangers and hit only 81 last year. He alone could have made up the difference. As a former CF, he seemed overweight and out of shape coming into the season and his injuries sure didn't help his conditioning. Can he be in better shape coming into the contract season?! He could go 140+ OPS.

"Oh crystal ball... what will Joc Pederson do in 2026?"

If he is '25 Joc Pederson, at 34 going into the season, he likely ends his career during or after the season.
- in this scenario, getting rid of him, even if we pay his full amount, opens up ABs for someone productive.

If he is any of '22-24 version, he'll parlay that into another nice payout.
- in this scenario, we're talking playoffs with the roster "as-is".

One crazy thought I had last week was Giancarlo Stanton. He is owed $25 MM per year for the next two years with Miami picking up $10MM per year of that. I think year three is a team option with a $10MM buyout that Miami is on the hook for.

Hear me out on this one. He can't play the field. If he can DH only, I think it is a steal as he is good for 30 HRs. The problem with that is we already have a LH DH. We need to figure out something with Joc to make this work.

Fuzzy Dunlop said:

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One crazy thought I had last week was Giancarlo Stanton. He is owed $25 MM per year for the next two years with Miami picking up $10MM per year of that. I think year three is a team option with a $10MM buyout that Miami is on the hook for.

Hear me out on this one. He can't play the field. If he can DH only, I think it is a steal as he is good for 30 HRs. The problem with that is we already have a LH DH. We need to figure out something with Joc to make this work.

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Don't Yankee fans hate this guy? He's prone to long slumps. I see him as a good-looking Adolis with zero defensive ability. And the only havoc he creates on the bases is when he gets thrown out at home from the warning track.

I would put Seager at DH if it keeps him in the lineup.

Just can't let him become a Biggio/Jeter/Ripken albatross. He is here to mash.

South Platte said:

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Fuzzy Dunlop said:

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One crazy thought I had last week was Giancarlo Stanton. He is owed $25 MM per year for the next two years with Miami picking up $10MM per year of that. I think year three is a team option with a $10MM buyout that Miami is on the hook for.

Hear me out on this one. He can't play the field. If he can DH only, I think it is a steal as he is good for 30 HRs. The problem with that is we already have a LH DH. We need to figure out something with Joc to make this work.

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Don't Yankee fans hate this guy? He's prone to long slumps. I see him as a good-looking Adolis with zero defensive ability. And the only havoc he creates on the bases is when he gets thrown out at home from the warning track.

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Those are all very good points and things I considered. He batted .273 with a .944 OPS and 158 OPS+ this season. Not bad numbers but you certainly wouldn't want him traversing our cavernous outfield.

We already have a guy like that in Pederson. I would only do it if the Yankees took another $10MM of his salary leaving us with $5MM/year.Then, find someone that will take Pederson.

Not sure if you guys have settled this, but Spotrac projects the rangers BELOW the CBT

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/texas-rangers/tax/_/year/2025

Total (with incentives) - $238,918,828

I do not think there are any other remaining incentives that anyone has a shot at other than Cy Young Top 5 for Evo. But that's only $250,000 if he wins it and it goes down from there. (EDIT $100,000 for Gold Glove potentially, as well).

dodgers pretty lucky to get that one

They likely close it out on Wed with Yammy going. Not sure who get the GS for Philly.

They said a team up 2-0 wins 89% of the time. I'm assuming that was a best of 5 stat.

Dodgers win Wed and they could go undefeated in post-season.

Tor up 2-0 on NYY. I'd love Tor to sweep them.

94chem said:

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I would put Seager at DH if it keeps him in the lineup.

Just can't let him become a Biggio/Jeter/Ripken albatross. He is here to mash.

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Or maybe 1B.

DallasAg 94 said:

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Once we get a new Manager, I think the sides will have preliminary Arb discussions. Can Shu impact the Arb guys to get more out of guys like Jung, Adolis, and Jung?!

Leody got like $4M for '25.

Serf in '25: ($773K in '25)
Duran (26) - Arb1 this offseason <- Not worried about his #. $1M? Let him go?
Smith (27) - Arb1 <- $2-3M?
1B: Burger (29) - Arb1 <- $3-4M?
3B: Jung (27) - Arb1 <- I'm sure he'll be hunting for $7M+

RF: Adolis (32) - Arb3 ($10.5M in '25) <- He'll want more. $12-13M
_C: Heim (30) - Arb3 ($4.75M in '25) <- He'll want more. $7-9m?

IMO, that puts Jung, Adolis, and Heim in the $30M cost range. Add Burger at say $6M.

Trade Jung and slide Josh into 3B.

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Looks like MBTR has the Arb projections up.

Looks like we'll get a bargain with Jung... or some return...

Let's see how close I was...

Quote:

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Rangers (9)

Jonah Heim (5.097): $6MM
Adolis Garcia (5.095): $12.1MM
Josh Sborz (5.055): $1.1MM
Jacob Webb (5.046): $2MM
Sam Haggerty (5.007): $1.4MM
Josh Smith (3.129): $3MM
Jake Burger (3.127): $3.5MM
Ezequiel Duran (3.050): $1.4MM
Josh Jung (3.023): $2.9MM

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There are (1) known quantities that you need to upgrade, (2) projects that still have hope, and (3) known quantities that you just keep around.

Personally, I'd like to see if Semien could play RF like Mookie Betts. If you want me to trash Adolis, though, I won't do it. He's a great Texas Ranger who plays hard every night. But he has become the ghost of Chris Carter offensively.

I love Duran's arm. It's the foundation for his versatility. I wouldn't mind a healthy Carter Duran platoon.

They have to have the conversation with Seager. If he wants another ring, he has to play 140+ games.

Smith is a flawed player. He has a huge hole up and away. But his floor is pretty high. He's had back to back good years. He's Curtis Wilkerson. If he plays, he plays.

Jung is easy to dump on. Chases crap, huge slumps...but IF he could walk a little more, use the field a little more...he brings really good defense. I'm guessing Semien is the only guy we have who can field 3rd at that level. Just hard to give up on him. Kinda reminds me of Profar in that regard.

Heim. Thanks for the memories. However, we did have the best pitching staff in baseball, and if the rest of the order was strong, you can hide him in the 9 hole.

I'm bored. It is our slow time, at work. Here is where we are for 2026, let's assume no roster changes and the Arb are as projected by MBTR. Salary numbers from COTS.

Quote:

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Pitching
(5) deGrom ($38M/37 CBT), Eovaldi ($29/25), Leiter ($762k/Serf), Latz(Serf), Rocker (Serf)
(8) Winn (25, Serf), Garcia* (Serf), Webb (31, $2M), Curvelo (24, Serf) - 4 Open

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Quote:

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Offense
_C: Higgy - $6.75
_C: Heim - $6M
1B: Burger - $3.5M
2B: Semien - $26M
SS: Seager - $31.5M
3B: Jung - $2.9M
LF: Smith - $3M
CF: Langford - Serf
RF: Adolis - $12.1M
DH: Pederson - $18M

U: Duran - $1.4M
U: Haggerty - $1.4M
U: Freeman - Serf
U: Helman - Serf
U: Osuna - Serf
U: Carter - Serf

+3 O

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We're at $150M Payroll / $164M in CBT
Plus - Arbs ($33.4M projected)
Plus - Serfs (11 x ~$800k) = $8.8M

That's ~ $206.2 on a projected $244 CBT

Personally, at $12M Adolis is a huge keep over Pederson's $18M.

From Ken Rosenthal's notes in the Athletic:

Blue Jays hitting coaches: Daulton Varsho is one of many Jays who credits the team's first-year hitting coaches, led by David Popkins, with helping him break through this season. Varsho said the Jays' hitting group excels at helping players refine their approaches, offering each hitter individualized attack plans for each pitcher. The coaches are also adept at identifying and correcting small mechanical flaws quickly. "It doesn't take them two weeks or a month," Varsho said. "It takes them two days."

I really think it is time to move on from Adolis and Jonah. That is 18.1M that could be used elsewhere. I really appreciate what they both did in 2023.

Jimtim1216 said:

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I really think it is time to move on from Adolis and Jonah. That is 18.1M that could be used elsewhere. I really appreciate what they both did in 2023.

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Evan had an update recently where he made it pretty clear that the Rangers will move on for Heim. Since he still has arbitration time left, I guess they would have to release or non-tender him, something like that. But the price tag would be way too much for the recent Heim output. Evan mentioned some of the various catcher metrics/ratings, and Heim was really bad both offensively and defensively.

Jonah seems to have gotten complacent. Something seems off, like he just stopped grinding

AgBQ-00 said:

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Jonah seems to have gotten complacent. Something seems off, like he just stopped grinding

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He looked burned out this year. Rolling his eyes, loafing (which includes jogging to the backstop on a WP or PB). He showed some flashes where he hustled on the bases but behind the plate, he just didn't have it.

IIRC, they can go all the way up to the Arb hearing to decide if they want to accept the Arbiter's position.

They can also trade him.

With the ABS system pending implementation for 2026... it brings up the question of his value defensively, in terms of "framing."

Personally, I think he gets traded.

CY brought Higgy in at $1M more than Heim for 2025 and Higgy is set to make $6.75M in '26. Heim will likely get less than Higgy in '26.

Heim played C 91 GS, Higgy played 68 GS. Higgy was frequently injured and Heim seemed to look indifferent at times while playing. I have to wonder how much all of that played into his attitude.

DallasAg 94 said:

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IIRC, they can go all the way up to the Arb hearing to decide if they want to accept the Arbiter's position.

They can also trade him.

With the ABS system pending implementation for 2026... it brings up the question of his value defensively, in terms of "framing."

Personally, I think he gets traded.

CY brought Higgy in at $1M more than Heim for 2025 and Higgy is set to make $6.75M in '26. Heim will likely get less than Higgy in '26.

Heim played C 91 GS, Higgy played 68 GS. Higgy was frequently injured and Heim seemed to look indifferent at times while playing. I have to wonder how much all of that played into his attitude.

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I think Heim has little to no trade value. I think they cut him loose to be a free agent. If you let him go to arbitration, you are obligated to him for the year (unless you trade him). You aren't getting anything of value in a trade, and we can't go into next season with the Heim/Higgy duo next year. Higgy at least hits and is signed for 2026, but with age and injury he can't be the main guy at catcher. Heim isn't worthy of being the main guy anymore, so I say cut him loose and find a cheap free agent catcher floating around this off-season.

What if Heim quit catching and focused on serving as full-time DH. Setting aside the man-crush I had (have?) on Mickey Tettleton, I wonder if he could play the role of switch-hitting power bat as DH. Would be a pretty cheap option.

Send Pederson to Jenny Craig camp and maybe he nets some trade value. Or just DFA him like the Astros did Abreu. He's a lost cause. I was pretty much done with him after his ridiculous off-season comments about Houston.

Stuff like this makes or breaks your team. Squeezing production out of guys with marginal talent. Hope Skip and CY can do this.

Jonah doesn't have the raw bat ability to be a DH imo. And he's one of the slowest player in the MLB.

South Platte said:

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What if Heim quit catching and focused on serving as full-time DH. Setting aside the man-crush I had (have?) on Mickey Tettleton, I wonder if he could play the role of switch-hitting power bat as DH. Would be a pretty cheap option.

Send Pederson to Jenny Craig camp and maybe he nets some trade value. Or just DFA him like the Astros did Abreu. He's a lost cause. I was pretty much done with him after his ridiculous off-season comments about Houston.

Stuff like this makes or breaks your team. Squeezing production out of guys with marginal talent. Hope Skip and CY can do this.

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I'm willing to give Pederson until the middle of May to return to what he used to be. If he's not back to his pre-2025 numbers, then we need to cut bait. We've given him enough chances by that time. And, hopefully he's back to his old self.