If Trump were to fire Powell after the market closes on Friday, are there any trades you might put on Friday afternoon with the potential to unwind them Monday? If nothing happens, you're likely just out the commission with minimal gain/loss.

Some kind of short term options that would pop from the volatility?

Short SPY?

Thoughts?

If I put on my tin foil hat real tightly, I think that firing Powell would be an effective distraction from the Epstein meltdown.

I think today was an experiment to see the reaction. TLT dropped about 1.5% between the news of imminent firing and Trump saying it was unlikely.

I dont think firing Powell would result in lower rates

Powell stated today that the Federal Reserve cannot hold Bitcoin and is not willing to to change the law so that it can.

Edited to add : bitcoin would surge on his firing.

This

so what's the trade to fade those trying to play action on him getting fired

This is the way

EliteZags said:

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so what's the trade to fade those trying to play action on him getting fired

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I tried posting my only real thoughts the other day, no takers

https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3548900


Basically I'm sitting on some cash with the idea that rate cuts happening sooner than later wont come to fruition

So I plan to buy Russell 2000, XBI / ARKG when their price comes back down when / if the market decides rates cuts are further down the road


A bad jobs report....etc could mess up my plan but it looks like firing Powell and cutting rates soon is off the table. Worst case I got more cash than I'd wish

Something will happen in the economy which drives the Fed to cut rates aggressively over a short couple of months. Jerome will probably look a good bit foolish for not cutting earlier. Lower rates will temporarily juice markets. The day trader thread should be lively. It may help struggling companies and government refinance debt a little cheaper. All I know is the hangover is going to be supreme. Our kids and grand kids are probably going to line us up against a wall and shoot us for putting a long string of imbeciles in charge of government and economy...political parties and affiliations be damned.

Short the dollar if you expect Powell to be fired. Long term treasury bond yields would probably surge so short those as well.

EliteZags said:

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so what's the trade to fade those trying to play action on him getting fired

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Polymarket and Don Jr??

It ain't happening.

Yep, not now. Midweek I thought it was happening, but I think Bessent talked him off the ledge.

chris1515 said:

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Yep, not now. Midweek I thought it was happening, but I think Bessent talked him off the ledge.

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This time

This guy on the Fed Reserve board is a 'yes' vote...

The Street article

Powell must be enjoying his power. Did he enjoy it when rates were cut next to nothing? I've never cared for him as Ch of the Fed. Would the decision have been diff had the jobs revisions been announced first? If so, why can't the Fed reverse the decision in Aug? Is there a reason to wait until Sept? Speaking of high mortgage rates, check out mine with excellent credit: 5 1/2 in 1963; 6 3/4 in '68; 8 in '75; 10 in '79; 13 in '80 (commitment lowered from 16 before closing). Prime hit 21 in '81.