No, they have negotiated some bull sheet release schedule

The lock-up release agreement details from the SEC Form S-1 filing include: [1, 2, 3]

• First Release (After Q2 Earnings): Insiders can sell up to 20% of their eligible locked-up shares once the company reports its first earnings as a public company. [1]
• Performance Trigger: If the stock trades 30% or more above the IPO price for 5 out of 10 consecutive trading days during this initial window, insiders can unlock and sell an additional 10%. [1]
• Rolling Time-Based Unlocks: Staggered time-based dates occur at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post-IPO, with up to 7% of additional shares unlocked at each interval. [1, 2]
• Second Release (After Q3 Earnings): Insiders are permitted to sell up to an additional 28% following the company's Q3 earnings call. [1]
• Full Expiration: All remaining share restrictions end after 180 days. [1]

SteveA said:

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No, they have negotiated some bull sheet release schedule

The lock-up release agreement details from the SEC Form S-1 filing include: [1, 2, 3]

• First Release (After Q2 Earnings): Insiders can sell up to 20% of their eligible locked-up shares once the company reports its first earnings as a public company. [1]
• Performance Trigger: If the stock trades 30% or more above the IPO price for 5 out of 10 consecutive trading days during this initial window, insiders can unlock and sell an additional 10%. [1]
• Rolling Time-Based Unlocks: Staggered time-based dates occur at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post-IPO, with up to 7% of additional shares unlocked at each interval. [1, 2]
• Second Release (After Q3 Earnings): Insiders are permitted to sell up to an additional 28% following the company's Q3 earnings call. [1]
• Full Expiration: All remaining share restrictions end after 180 days. [1]

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Considering the ratio of insider and early investor shares to public float it would seem to me that not just dumping all of those into the available open market at 180 days is probably a more prudent move.

As for the "shady contracts" it's hard to know since as a private company these would have likely gone under the radar. Public companies previously doing business with them might have been under no obligation to name them. We've never been able to truly look under the hood

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I think the SpaceX IPO is being used to get rid of debt from other adventures (xAI, twitter, etc.) and putting into the one thing that's been partially successful/has a future making money. I also see this as an attempt by insiders/investors to fleece the public and get their money back.

As others said, if it was just the rockets/satellite aspects? I'd throw money at it. By lumping everything else into it? Yeah...no.

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Agree. Twitter's money men rolled in to xAI, which is now rolled in to Spacex. The inflated valuation will allow them to get cash back out.

OldArmyCT said:

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Since dang near no one here is getting any IPO shares just watch as the day unfolds.

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Why not?

SteveA said:

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This entire Spacex IPO appears to be a giant pump and dump so it's VC guys can cash out and leave the market holding the bag. Indexes and fund managers need to stay far far away. IPO is at 100 revenue, with shady contracts with Google and other investing companies... If this is true, how bad can it be for the market?

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The IPO price is outrageous based on any objective metric but that matters as much as BTC valuation. This is a meme asset and I bet the price will be higher the first day and will climb for a few weeks until folks start fearing what happens as more shares float. Some folks will cash out shares by December but it's difficult to see how the market will respond. I'm buying the IPO but I consider it gambling, not investing.

I'm not going to bet against him, but I'm also not going to bet with him.

This is pretty eye opening and concerning:

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The company has three units: The space business had $4.1 billion in revenue last year and about $657 million in losses. Its Starlink satellite internet business pulled in $11.4 billion in revenue and turned a profit. Meanwhile, xAI had $3.2 billion in revenue and $6.4 billion in losses.

SpaceX touted in the filing that it sees a total addressable market, a business term for potential revenue opportunities, of $28.5 trillion, the largest such figure of its kind. Most of that$26.5 trillionis in AI.

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I have way more faith in his Space, Starlink, and Tesla business than xAI. Of course, AI is going to become intertwined in all of these at some point and you won't be able to separate any of it especially once he folds Tesla into SpaceX which is likely coming next.

All of Elon's companies are financially engineered to deliver the highest net worth for him as if the stock is the real product. The merger with xai, the waiving of exchange rules (including Nasdaq1000 rules), the compensation packages (looking forward to the Tesla SpaceX merger at a value that prints his Tesla compensation packages - similarly to how Tesla saved Solarcity for Elon), the "futurism" promises he's been recycling for around 2 decades. At the end of the day, the merger with xai makes it much less attractive and much riskier of an investment in my view. But Elon needed to dilute all the other investors in SpaceX, so we're definitely all in on data centers in space.

It's certainly, an interesting case study because he's robbed from his own shareholders at every turn and made decisions that are purely for his own number go up goals, but the shareholders don't care because they all are willing to pay massive multiples on his companies irregardless of underlying financial performance. Elon is the first to realize if you promise a Mars colony by 2024 in 2018, everyone believes Mars is right around the corner in 2026.

so roughly equal to the total GDP of the US?

Seems like a Cathie Wood estimate.