Not sure how accurate this is...

Martin Q. Blank said:

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ever recorded? or ever recorded by Redfin?

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The latter. But there are plenty of indicators showing the cracks in housing. Quite similar to 2006-2007.

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One would think property taxes would come down

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The only one that matters is the government. And lol

anecdotally this is what my realtor base is saying as well. plenty of listings, would kill for a buyer client.

Yesterday said:

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It's weird because I don't think sellers are trying to sell because they have to like 2008. Sellers are happy to sell or stay put which keeps prices inflated. That's my opinion of course.

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I agree with you. Prices remain elevated around us and homes are not moving. Seeing homes for $300k over what they were in 2022 and not budging on price. We would love to move as we have 3 kids now and need the space but prices in our area at the square footage we would want are through the roof.

As far as property tax goes, it seems like enough of the best properties available are still selling and seem to be going for slightly higher or at least flat. Enough of them to outnumber the few people having to dump properties for low prices. So there is way fewer sales, and everybody can see the market is soft, but when you're dealing with comparable sales with the CADs or ARBs the transactions that have actually occurred aren't indicating lower prices.

Part of the tax code definition of market value is " exposed for sale in the open market with a reasonable time for the seller to find a purchaser;" so they have like a built in sliding scale where (arguably) it doesnt technically matter if things are selling in 5 days or if theres a bloated market where things are sitting for 180 days and 90% find no buyers but 5% are still selling at ok prices.

JJxvi said:

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As far as property tax goes, it seems like enough of the best properties available are still selling and seem to be going for slightly higher or at least flat. Enough of them to outnumber the few people having to dump properties for low prices. So there is way fewer sales, and everybody can see the market is soft, but when you're dealing with comparable sales with the CADs or ARBs the transactions that have actually occurred aren't indicating lower prices.

Part of the tax code definition of market value is " exposed for sale in the open market with a reasonable time for the seller to find a purchaser;" so they have like a built in sliding scale where (arguably) it doesnt technically matter if things are selling in 5 days or if theres a bloated market where things are sitting for 180 days and 90% find no buyers but 5% are still selling at ok prices.

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Kindof unrelated to most of your post, but I thought this was interesting ---

About a half hour ago I was talking to someone living in montgomery county.

Guy bought his home (DR Horton Build) for just over 300k 2 years ago.

Same exact floorplan just sold for 250k.

I think the market is stagnant in his general area, but a 50k dif in sales price???

Either they're building cheaper, or they shafted the guy with an appraisal waiver possible, but that is nuts. I didn't take the time to get more info.

was it resale at that point or still offered by Dr Horton?

Saw this happen in Walden by Lake Conroe around 2007-2009 timeframe

200k house went down to about 160 something from same tract home builder for same floor plan.

I mean, depending on the area is that all that crazy? I imagine in non-major markets the market is exceptionally soft.

I mirror what JJxvi is seeing - in major metro good areas the better properties are still moving at flat or slightly higher. A lot of off market stuff moving. We've missed on now 3 properties that were gone within a day of hitting the market.

when the builder offers $40k to buy down the rate, what do we think will happen?

That's happening in our area. It's $500k for a "used" house, but $600k + a rate buy down for new builds. No one can sell no matter how desperate they can get. Homes finally start moving in the 300's. It's going to get real bad soon.

In my neighborhood in Houston, houses would have multiple offers before they'd even be officially listed. Now there are tons of them just sitting and sitting. I'm sure the asking prices aren't helping. One house 2 doors down from me, very similar floor plan and level of remodel as mine, is listed for almost $200/ft more than what I paid for mine just 5 years ago.

what area?

I have rental that I just listed as the current tenants move out. Rents are down, I've since had to drop the rent 10% below what the previously rented rate was, and still not getting much interest. Sale prices are also going lower.

Housing areas that boomed during Covid are now pulling back in both rents and sale prices. I think return to office policies are starting to trickle into the housing market as people relocate back to offices.

Buyers are holding out for lower interest rates or larger down payments. And now the price retraction is obvious, so buyers are just waiting to buy lower.

Interesting. Just raised my rent in Fort Worth. Granted they are still below market which probably helps.

bmks270 said:

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I have rental that I just listed as the current tenants move out. Rents are down, I've since had to drop the rent 10% below what the previously rented rate was, and still not getting much interest. Sale prices are also going lower.

Housing areas that boomed during Covid are now pulling back in both rents and sale prices. I think return to office policies are starting to trickle into the housing market as people relocate back to offices.

Buyers are holding out for lower interest rates or larger down payments. And now the price retraction is obvious, so buyers are just waiting to buy lower.

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If both rent and sale prices are dropping, where are people living?

Rents in most areas in Texas are not dropping.

Martin Q. Blank said:

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bmks270 said:

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I have rental that I just listed as the current tenants move out. Rents are down, I've since had to drop the rent 10% below what the previously rented rate was, and still not getting much interest. Sale prices are also going lower.

Housing areas that boomed during Covid are now pulling back in both rents and sale prices. I think return to office policies are starting to trickle into the housing market as people relocate back to offices.

Buyers are holding out for lower interest rates or larger down payments. And now the price retraction is obvious, so buyers are just waiting to buy lower.

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If both rent and sale prices are dropping, where are people living?

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They are moving to back to office cities, resetting to pre-covid cities. For example, Florida had a huge influx of people from covid, and now prices and rents are down across the state, but during COVID markets were absolutely insane, like 20% jumps in rent, along with people from the liberal cities buying up property (especially New Yorkers).

That's all stopped and is reversing. There's more inventory, less work from home, high interest rates, basically no body wants to buy. And people whose property rose in value 50% in 5 years are selling to lock in the gains as they see the value starting to decline now. Then they'll relocate closer to the office and rent.

Red Pear Realty said:

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Rents in most areas in Texas are not dropping.

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Sure they are. Austin (bigly). And to much lesser extent Dallas and Houston.

That said, depends on where you are getting your data.

Where is this?

Others have said it, but buyers can be picky. Yet there are buyers out there and good houses are still moving, at least around me. We've had 3 houses go on the market on my street this year, the most recent being just over a month ago, closed last weekend. All had multiple offers the first weekend.

Yeah the really good stuff priced right is still moving quick in my area. But not the less than really good stuff, especially if not priced right - it's still moving, but taking longer and sometimes with price adjustments.. Seems like that's kind of how it should be. I also realize it's not that way everywhere.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Yesterday said:

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It's weird because I don't think sellers are trying to sell because they have to like 2008. Sellers are happy to sell or stay put which keeps prices inflated. That's my opinion of course.

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They don't have to sell yet. We aren't in a housing bubble. We're in a debt bubble. It doesn't pop quickly. There's a nail in the tire. You won't know the tire is deflating until it's too late. What will turn the heat up on housing is the steady rise in unemployment.

And when a tire deflates, it doesn't matter if one part of the tire is in great shape. Air exists within it equally. Deflation affects all assets. They all lose value.

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This. 1000%. We all saw a run-up in housing prices from 2021-late 2023 that was fueled largely by cheap debt and some by rising construction costs. Houses that sold on January 1, 2021 for $350,000 are now priced at $600,000. It's insane. That works out to a roughly 10% internal rate of return over that time period. Housing is not supposed to do that. If you drop the current price to $500,000, it comes out to roughly 6.5%. That's still an exceptional annual growth rate on a house. The point of all this is housing prices are going to have to come way, way down for there to be some kind of long-term equilibrium in the market because of all the cheap debt that is out there.

Diggity said:

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what area?

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Shepherd Park Plaza(GOOF)