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Highest Ever: More Sellers than Buyers

9,895 Views | 71 Replies | Last: 23 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Diggity
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In reply to TXAG 05 • 11:29a, 8/22/25
AG
TXAG 05 said:
Diggity said:
what area?

Shepherd Park Plaza(GOOF)

gotcha. that area definitely gone nuts.

The house (I think) you're talking about looks to be quite overpriced.

She's comping it with the highest per square foot sales in recent history, one of which went $100K over ask back in May. That seems to have been the peak so expectations will need to be reset.

The owner is the listing agent, so I imagine she's just trying to see what the market will bear.

She paid ~$300/sqft about the same time you bought your place.

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TXAG 05
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1:28p, 8/22/25
AG
The owner isn't the agent on this one, but its currently under contract so obviously someone didn't have a problem overpaying for it.
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permabull
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2:43p, 8/22/25
AG
I am probably being too picky but when I look at listings that more than 15% over country appraisals I just move on. I figure the seller is living in the past and we are going to be too far apart on price.

My friend just had to settle at 20% below county appraiseral but honestly his house wasn't move on ready and spending 10k to freshen it up likely would have done him some good.
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Red Pear Realty
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In reply to permabull • 3:54p, 8/22/25
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You should ignore CAD values. They don't have anything to do with reality. As an example, I just sold a home in the Heights for approximately 200% of its CAD assessed value. I also had another listing recently that was offered about 5% below its CAD value and didn't sell for a few months on the market.
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MAS444
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 4:16p, 8/22/25
AG
Quote:
You should ignore CAD values. They don't have anything to do with reality. As an example, I just sold a home in the Heights for approximately 200% of its CAD assessed value. I also had another listing recently that was offered about 5% below its CAD value and didn't sell for a few months on the market.

Agree 100%. Among other reasons, 2 exact same houses in same hood could have totally different CAD values just because one regularly contested appraisal and the other didn't.
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kyledr04
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12:44p, 8/23/25
AG
Lots of over priced stuff that's not moving with interest and tax rates this high. Bad time to be in the market.
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swimmerbabe11
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12:59p, 8/23/25
Interest rates haven't changed in the last two years though.
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Red Pear Realty
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In reply to kyledr04 • 2:34p, 8/23/25
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kyledr04 said:
Lots of over priced stuff that's not moving with interest and tax rates this high. Bad time to be in the market.


Don't forget insurance too.
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1939
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9:28a, 8/24/25
AG
Why would anyone buy right now when it's generally accepted that interest rates are going down very soon.
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Seven Costanza
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In reply to 1939 • 12:10p, 8/24/25
AG
1939 said:
Why would anyone buy right now when it's generally accepted that interest rates are going down very soon.

There are situations. Maybe you are a family that had to move to a new area for work and you don't want to deal with renting for a year, then buying and having to go through the moving process again. Maybe you are a cash buyer and don't care what the interest rates are. Maybe the house that you want in the specific area that you want is finally available and you want to jump on it while you can. Maybe you are ready to move on with your life and the extra $1-2k/month is meaningless to you.
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SteveBott
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In reply to 1939 • 1:20p, 8/24/25
AG
1939 said:
Why would anyone buy right now when it's generally accepted that interest rates are going down very soon.


Exactly who are these folks that 'generally accept' rates are going down soon? Not me and I've been in mortgage for 22 years. Yes the Fed might lower their rates by .25 and maybe .5 but they do not control long term rates. They have considerable influence but Longs are controlled by the market. And the market hates inflation.

The PPI came in at 5 times the change expected (.9 not .2) which is producer's inflation. That is now in the pipeline so retail customers will see that soon. I'd watch that index for the next few months to estimate future inflation.
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swimmerbabe11
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In reply to SteveBott • 2:01p, 8/24/25
I've been hearing that rumble too and I don't really believe it. I certainly don't believe it'll be enough to change the monthly payment by $1k in the homes in my price range.

I'll believe it when I see it, but the interest rates haven't really been any different this summer than they were the last two summers. The thing that has changed is the administration and like it or not, that has affected the buyer's temperature/sense of urgency more than anything else.
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agracer
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In reply to permabull • 9:05a, 8/25/25
AG
permabull said:
I think sellers who are sitting on low payments because they bought before the boom and then refinanced during COVID are more than willing to wait out the market.

Hi, that would be me.

All the young new buyers at work want me to move out so the folks occupying the starter homes they are trying to buy will move out so they have a house to buy.

Except we are seeing the opposite of what everyone else is discussing. Inventory is crazy low in my area. For sale listings are 1/3rd of what it was a few years ago. Homes are still getting multiple offers over asking. Young guy who sits next to me, he and his wife finally got a house after putting in offers on 6 others over the last 6 months.
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Jay@AgsReward.com
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In reply to 1939 • 9:45a, 8/27/25
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In Sept 24' 30-year fixed mortagge rates were at 6.18. The lowest they had been since Sept of 22'. In Sept 24' the Fed dropped the fed funds rates effective rate from 5.13 to 4.83%. the 50 BP rate cut we all remember. Mortgage rates went down, right? No, almost immediately mortgage rates jumped to 6.43% on their way to 7% by Jan even though the fed cut two more times lowering the effective Funds rate to 4.33.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=YPBJ

and this is by no means an historical anomaly either. The fed funds rate is an overnight rate that banks lend to each other, and has very little to do with long term rates. The bond market sets long terms rates including what rates are for mortgage backed securties, and these MBS securties are what actual set mortgage rates. The fed funds rate is the most talked about rate in the whole complex, so if you and I know that the fed will likely cut in Sept, dont you think those who do it for a living likely do as well? The rate cut has already been priced in as a 88% proabailty so this is baked in up and down of the yield curve. Now, as I always tell borrowers the Powell press conferevne is more important then the actual cut or no cut (again, that is almost always known going)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

The myth that the Fed controls mortgage rates is just that a myth. But, it does have a hand in controlling HELOC's as they are typicaly based on Prime. and Prime is 3% over the Fed funds. so a .25% cut will drop most HELOC's by that same .25%.
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62strat
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In reply to lobopride • 1:01p, 8/27/25
AG
lobopride said:
One would think property taxes would come down some whenever values decrease especially with all the increases in homestead exemptions. /s

my property tax bill went down 1% from 2024 to 2025.

It's the 4th time it's gone down in my 12 years in this home.
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samurai_science
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In reply to permabull • 1:50p, 8/28/25
permabull said:
I think sellers who are sitting on low payments because they bought before the boom and then refinanced during COVID are more than willing to wait out the market.


I am in this group as well, bought in 2018
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Tex117
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In reply to permabull • 10:26a, 9/2/25
AG
permabull said:
I think sellers who are sitting on low payments because they bought before the boom and then refinanced during COVID are more than willing to wait out the market.

And here is the thing. Many sellers can wait it out. Sure. But life gets in the way of others. As does investors and builders.

They will drop the price.

Comps will show that.

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Diggity
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In reply to Tex117 • 10:41a, 9/2/25
AG
Tex117 said:
permabull said:
I think sellers who are sitting on low payments because they bought before the boom and then refinanced during COVID are more than willing to wait out the market.

And here is the thing. Many sellers can wait it out. Sure. But life gets in the way of others. As does investors and builders.

They will drop the price.

Comps will show that.


are "investors and builders" the buyers or sellers in this scenario?
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swimmerbabe11
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10:45a, 9/2/25
traffic has picked up this last two weeks or so as people anticipate the rates going down.
We are not really entertaining price decreases, but using rate buydowns etc to protect the total sales price.
That's generally what I'm seeing in Houston anyway from the builder perspective.
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AGC
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In reply to swimmerbabe11 • 11:24a, 9/2/25
AG
swimmerbabe11 said:
traffic has picked up this last two weeks or so as people anticipate the rates going down.
We are not really entertaining price decreases, but using rate buydowns etc to protect the total sales price.
That's generally what I'm seeing in Houston anyway from the builder perspective.


Assume y'all are renegotiating lot takedown contracts, like many builders I'm hearing about?
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to swimmerbabe11 • 11:25a, 9/2/25
swimmerbabe11 said:
traffic has picked up this last two weeks or so as people anticipate the rates going down.
We are not really entertaining price decreases, but using rate buydowns etc to protect the total sales price.
That's generally what I'm seeing in Houston anyway from the builder perspective.

All builders are doing that. It's the only way you can show any sort of revenue for the quarter.
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swimmerbabe11
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In reply to AGC • 11:34a, 9/2/25
AGC said:
swimmerbabe11 said:
traffic has picked up this last two weeks or so as people anticipate the rates going down.
We are not really entertaining price decreases, but using rate buydowns etc to protect the total sales price.
That's generally what I'm seeing in Houston anyway from the builder perspective.


Assume y'all are renegotiating lot takedown contracts, like many builders I'm hearing about?


Many builders are pulling out of lots or out of neighborhoods, my understanding (and I'm in the field, so I only get told what they want me to hear) is that we aren't currently slowing down or planning to.

The Houston division is supposed to double in size in the next two years. East side houston (Dayton, league City, Mont Belvieu etc) has been going pretty strong. West side/north has been struggling more. I'm in town, which has been challenging, but like I said, it seems like things are picking up on the west side.
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62strat
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1:02p, 9/2/25
AG
nearly all of my closer friends in my area are like me.. 2.xx% interest rate, so no one is going anywhere.

One family we know really wanted to upsize a bit, but instead of paying more to even move laterally, they've decided to do a huge kitchen/living room remodel to make better use of space. They just started demo.. so that's a house that could have been put on market, but isn't because they have 2.75% interest.

We have 2.625% and paid 2013 prices, so I ain't going anywhere. My P&I on a 4000sf 5/4 is equal to a 1 bedroom apt in my area.

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Diggity
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In reply to 62strat • 1:09p, 9/2/25
AG
it's an interesting phenomenon.

On one hand, it makes a ton of sense to stay in your current home with low rates.

On the other hand, the neighborhood you can afford in your 20's/30's is typically a lot different than the neighborhood you would like to be in when when you're 40/50.

In the old days, you would see people "move up" every 5-10 years or so.

I think a lot of people are skipping/delaying that move up and staying in areas they don't necessarily love because of the "golden handcuffs" that a 2.xx mortgage provides.
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62strat
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In reply to Diggity • 4:35p, 9/2/25
AG
Diggity said:
it's an interesting phenomenon.

On one hand, it makes a ton of sense to stay in your current home with low rates.

On the other hand, the neighborhood you can afford in your 20's/30's is typically a lot different than the neighborhood you would like to be in when when you're 40/50.

In the old days, you would see people "move up" every 5-10 years or so.

I think a lot of people are skipping/delaying that move up and staying in areas they don't necessarily love because of the "golden handcuffs" that a 2.xx mortgage provides.

Certainly with some people I know, they've told me they are in a house they had before kids, and now want more space after the kids came.

Luckily we had that foresight at age 32 after owning our first home, a 1500sf 3/2, purchased at age 25.

We bought this home a few years before our first kid, but we knew we wanted kids, so it made no sense to buy a home that we'd feel cramped in after kids just to have to move again. Plus we knew a basement finish would give us that extra space if we ever felt cramped.

13 years later and we still love this house and location.
We finally just finished the basement this year, gaining an extra 1600sf and adding a bedroom, bathroom, 2 large living areas, and a kitchen. Cost us ~$40/sf.

Last year we 'gutted' our backyard, completely renovated it and spend a ton of time out there now. So yeh we've put in $100k to the house in just a few years, but still the obvious choice over selling.
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62strat
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In reply to Diggity • 4:35p, 9/2/25
AG
Quote:


On the other hand, the neighborhood you can afford in your 20's/30's is typically a lot different than the neighborhood you would like to be in when when you're 40/50.

I don't even know if we could afford our house now.. so this comment is actually kind of interesting.
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Red Pear Realty
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5:28p, 9/2/25
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My interest rate on my mortgage is 2.375% on a 30 year loan due in 2051. Last year we tried to buy a lot to build on in Oak Forest for over a year and finally just gave up and instead added 1,350 SF to our original house that was 1,350 SF. We are super happy with our current setup.
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CS78
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In reply to Diggity • 9:36p, 9/2/25
Thats pretty much us. But to be honest, it's great!. Way less stressful this way. And is it really worth spending all that money just so kids dont have to share a bathroom for a few years?
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Diggity
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In reply to 62strat • 4:35p, 9/3/25
AG
In either situation, you're not moving anywhere in all likelihood.
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Yesterday
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8:29p, 9/3/25
AG
We're at 2.3% in a house we bought in Southlake, TX in 2020. Every time the wife wants to look at something new I just take the price and plug in the interest rate and show her the difference in mortgage. That said, Southlake is having a hard time getting younger families to move in. It's nearly impossible for a single family just starting out to move here and the result is shrinking elementary schools. When we started here in 2020 we had 9 kindergarten classes at one of the four elementary schools. That same school has 4 classes this year.

Older families don't want to move out due to their locked in rates and young families can't afford to move in. Interesting times indeed.
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MAS444
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2:54p, 9/5/25
AG
Just got a quote for the refi of a recently purchased investment property for 6% paying about .75 points - original/current rate 7.125. That's pretty significant I think...no?
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SteveBott
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In reply to MAS444 • 3:28p, 9/5/25
AG
What is your break even? Costs vs savings = ???months. Closing costs(not including escrow's) divided by monthly savings

Then decide as best you can on how long you will hold the property.

This is the easiest formula to decide to do the transaction.

My advice is do it if you break even is 12 months or less but 18 months should be considered if it is a long term hold.
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MAS444
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In reply to SteveBott • 3:33p, 9/5/25
AG
10 months break even with this refi deal (through another broker). Seems like somewhet of a no brainer to me.

But my current bank is telling me to wait as they expect better rates in November. I'm happy to wait and generally don't like paying points...but I'd hate to wait and miss this opportunity if rates go back up.
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SteveBott
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3:35p, 9/5/25
AG
10 months will work. Is this a 30 year?
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MAS444
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In reply to SteveBott • 3:36p, 9/5/25
AG
yes 30 year
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