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The Greater Houston housing market experienced a summer shift in July, with growing inventory and steady demand helping to stabilize prices. It has created a more balanced and sustainable market heading into the second half of the year. --HAR

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• Inventory is up to 5.5 months versus 4.2 months a year ago and 5.4 months a month ago.
• Mean and Median home prices are DOWN 1.9% and 3.1%, respectively, year over year
• Closed sales are up 9% and pending sales are up about 32%, both year over year
• Active listings are up 31% versus last year
• Days on Market (DOM) increased to 50 days on average
• The 10 year treasury is sitting around 4.3%
• The next Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 17 and the market is betting with about 80% certainty that the Fed will cut its rate target 25 bps to a range of 400 to 425 bps. I want to note every post that the Fed does not control mortgage rates, but they do control perception. And the market is paying attention.

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Broken out by housing segment, single-family home sales in the Greater Houston area performed as follows:

• $1 - $99,999: increased 26.3 percent
• $100,000 - $149,999: increased 39.1 percent
• $150,000 - $249,999: increased 25.5 percent
• $250,000 - $499,999: increased 6.0 percent
• $500,000 - $999,999: increased 0.5 percent
• $1M and above: increased 7.5 percent

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• The last 30 days was probably my busiest of the year so far for me personally. In the month of July alone, I closed deals in Cypress, Jersey Village, Clear Lake, The Heights, Rice Military, East Downtown, and Seabrook (and in some of those submarkets, I closed multiple deals). I know a lot of agents are really hurting, and I'm thankful for the trust that y'all put in me and the company to help y'all. With that said, I have started to see some agents start to get desperate, and when people get desperate, they can do desperate things. Be careful out there.
• I get to speak with a LOT of people about the Fed's target rate and policy and the like--from folks with jobs outside real estate and finance to folks in the industry, to bankers, etc. I'd say the market generally expects a 25 bps rate cut in September, although it has fluctuated the last few weeks from no rate cut to as much as a 50 bps rate cut. If I'm calling my shot, I'm saying 25 bps in September, but the bogie, in my mind, is the pissing match between JPOW and Trump. I feel like JPOW might hold rates just to show Trump who is in charge. We will see!
• On that note, I'd say that I saw a group of buyers fall off when rates rose to around 3.5% and another group fall off around 5.5%. If rates get back to 5.5%, my guess is that we see a chunk of people dive back in. I would also say that we probably get a group of people jumping back in around 6 months after this first rate cut, and the market will start to see the effects of the rate cut about a year to 15 months from the date of that rate cut.
• It's tough out there for sellers right now. I've had a lot of clients steer away from trying to sell their home to instead renting it. I've had good results with that approach, but it definitely doesn't feel good. But the lesson I learned from 2008-2012 was "just survive" and those who survive will come out the other side stronger than they were before, so maybe that's a win after all.
• To sell a home right now, your home needs to be PERFECT. No deferred maintenance, recently updated, roof needs to be less than 10 years old, etc. The buyer pool that is still looking for homes can be VERY selective. If your home is not in that top 5-10% of homes available in terms of both condition and price, it probably will not sell.
• The summer sales season is winding down and starting to go into hibernation mode. We made it another year. See you next month!

• https://www.har.com/content/department/newsroom?pid=2195
• https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
• https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

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Vaike O'Grady, research advisor at Unlock MLS, said the market is behaving much as expected for the summer, with seasonal patterns playing out against a backdrop of solid economic growth in Central Texas.
"It's typical for the summer market to slow as people focus on travel and leisure; we often see activity pick back up once school starts. The year-over-year growth in pending closings is encouraging. Inventory is higher than in recent years, giving buyers more options, but the month-to-month dip in new and active listings suggests some sellers may be holding back. If interest rates shift lower this fall, we could see seller and buyer activity accelerate."

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• Median Sales Price: $435,000, down 3.3% from last year
• Closed Sales: 2,492, down 7.9% year-over-year
• Sales Dollar Volume: $1.44 billion, a decrease of 7.3%
• Months of Inventory: 6.1 months, up 0.9 months compared to July 2024
• New Listings: 4,308, an increase of 13.4%
• Active Listings: 15,002, up 15.9% year-over-year
• Pending Sales: 2,829, an increase of 15.3%
• Average Days on Market: 60 days, up by 3 days from last year
• Average Close-to-List Price: 93.1%, down slightly from 94.2% in July 2024

• More choices are hitting the market with active listings up nearly 16% and inventory at 6.1 months.
• Homes are sitting longer (60 days on average), giving you more time and leverage to negotiate.
• Prices have dipped slightly, meaning there may be opportunities to find better value.

• While demand is still present (pending sales are up 15.3%), competition is growing with more homes available.
• Be prepared for longer days on market and offers coming in slightly below list price (average 93.1%).
• Pricing strategically and presenting your home well is more important than ever to attract serious buyers.

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