Final Bracket Projection

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ColleyvilleAg06
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1:38p, 3/15/26
AG
A couple of things i am way outside of the consensus on are moving Purdue up as the final 2 and Vandy up as the final 3, this dramatically shifts the rest of the bracket but is my final projection of what the committee will do. This will not change if one or both loses today. Assuming VCU holds on in the A10, this is my final projected bracket.



East Region (Washington, DC)


Greeneville, SC

1 Duke
16 Queens

8 Ohio State
9 Georgia

Portland, OR
4 Kansas
13 Hawaii

5 Arkansas
12 Akron

Buffalo, NY
3 Michigan State
14 Wright State

6 BYU
11 South Florida

Philadelphia, PA
2 UConn
15 UMBC

7 Miami
10 UCF




Midwest Region (Chicago, IL)


Buffalo, NY

1 Michigan
16 Lehigh / Siena

8 Villanova
9 Texas A&M

Oklahoma City, OK
4 Nebraska
13 North Dakota State

5 Texas Tech
12 Northern Iowa

Tampa, FL
3 Vanderbilt
14 Kennesaw State

6 Louisville
11Texas / SMU

St. Louis, MO
2 Iowa State
15 Furman

7 St. Mary's
10 Santa Clara





West Region (San Jose, CA)


San Diego, CA

1 Arizona
16 Long Island

8 Utah State
9 TCU

San Diego, CA
4 Alabama
13 CA Baptist

5 Wisconsin
12 McNeese

Portland, OR
3 Gonzaga
14 Troy

6 North Carolina
11Missouri / Miami (OH)

St. Louis, MO
2 Purdue
15 Tennessee State

7 Kentucky
10 NC State




South Region (Houston, TX)


Tampa, FL

1 Florida
16 Howard/ Prairie View A&M

8 Clemson
9 Iowa

Philadelphia, PA
4 Virginia
13 Hofstra

5 St. John's
12 High Point

Greeneville, SC
3 Illinois
14 Penn

6 Tennessee
11VCU

Oklahoma City, OK
2 Houston
15 Idaho

7 UCLA
10 Saint Louis
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TombstoneTex
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1:41p, 3/15/26
ColleyvilleAg06
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1:43p, 3/15/26
AG
BTW i hate our draw but that's what process led to. Here is to hoping i am wrong.
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AggieNattie
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 1:53p, 3/15/26
ColleyvilleAg06 said:
BTW i hate our draw but that's what process led to. Here is to hoping i am wrong.

I like drawing Villanova but not Michigan in the very next round
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Aston04
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1:54p, 3/15/26
AG
We got Michigan in round of 32 last year. I would be surprised.... But we did get rematched against byu in the past... So never know...
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OKC~Ag
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2:02p, 3/15/26
great job, thanks

Not liking match up with Mich though...@ 2nd rounds
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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to OKC~Ag • 2:04p, 3/15/26
AG
OKC~Ag said:
great job, thanks

Not liking match up with Mich though...@ 2nd rounds

Also couldnt ask for worse locations. bleh
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LincolnBorglum79
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2:12p, 3/15/26
AG
Joe Linardi has us playing Utah State in OKC (7-10) with probably meetings with UH, Illinois then Florida to make the final 4. IF we can win both in OKC, we come to Houston to try to win the Regional.
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Cajun Ag 86
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2:17p, 3/15/26
AG
Arkansas hiring a blue blood coach pays off with a championship early on.
FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!...FIGHT! MAROON! & WHITE! WHITE! WHITE!
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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to LincolnBorglum79 • 2:17p, 3/15/26
AG
LincolnBorglum79 said:
Joe Linardi has us playing Utah State in OKC (7-10) with probably meetings with UH, Illinois then Florida to make the final 4. IF we can win both in OKC, we come to Houston to try to win the Regional.


That would be a pretty favorable draw. I would be very surprised if Utah State was a 7.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to LincolnBorglum79 • 2:35p, 3/15/26
LincolnBorglum79 said:
Joe Linardi has us playing Utah State in OKC (7-10) with probably meetings with UH, Illinois then Florida to make the final 4. IF we can win both in OKC, we come to Houston to try to win the Regional.

Given how obsessed committees over time have been with us playing Utah schools, I firmly believe it.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to Cajun Ag 86 • 2:37p, 3/15/26
AG
Cajun Ag 86 said:
Arkansas hiring a blue blood coach pays off with a championship early on.


Having a five star point guard who is an NBA lottery pick and making more than $1 million in NL this year helps also.

I am also old enough to remember all the way back to last year when first year coach Calipari started 0-5 in the SEC and his fan base wanted to fire him
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LouisvilleAg
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 2:43p, 3/15/26
AG
Crazy how close we are. I will post mine in a bit here.
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LouisvilleAg
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3:15p, 3/15/26
AG
Alright, as a budding bracketologist, I have been striving to figure out the formula that the committee uses and how they seed teams. So here is my attempt this year. I did pretty well last year, but want to do even better this year. As you will see, ColleyvilleAg and I have a slightly different formula especially when it comes to the mid-level teams

East (Washington, DC) (F/Su)
Greenville (T/Sa)
1. Duke
16. Lehigh
16. Prairie View A&M

8. Villanova
9. Iowa

San Diego (F/Su)
4. Alabama
13. California Baptist

5. Wisconsin
12. Akron

Buffalo (T/Sa)
6. BYU
11. VCU

3. Michigan St.
14. North Dakota St.

Philadelphia (F/Su)
7. Miami, FL
10. Texas A&M

2. Connecticut
15. UMBC

South (Houston, TX) (T/Sa)
Tampa (F/Su)
1. Florida
16. Furman
16. Howard

8. Ohio St.
9. TCU

Portland (T/Sa)
4. Gonzaga
13. Hawaii

5. Texas Tech
12. McNeese St.

Greenville (T/Sa)
6. Tennessee
11. USF or WSU

3. Virginia
14. Kennesaw St.

Oklahoma City (T/Sa)
7. UCLA
10. Saint Louis

2. Houston
15. Queens

Other side of the Bracket

Midwest (Chicago, IL)
Buffalo (T/Sa)
1. Michigan
16. Long Island

8. Clemson
9. Georgia

Philadelphia (F/Su)
4. St. John's
13. Hofstra

5. Kansas
12. Penn

Oklahoma City (T/Sa)
6. Louisville
11. SMU
11. Texas

3. Nebraska
14. Wright St.

St. Louis (F/Su)
7. Kentucky
10. NC State

2. Iowa St.
15. Siena

West (San Jose, CA) (T/Sa)
San Diego (F/Su)
1. Arizona
16. Idaho

8. Utah St.
9. Santa Clara

Portland (T/Sa)
4. Illinois
13. Northern Iowa

5. Arkansas
12. High Point

Tampa (F/Su)
6. North Carolina
11. Missouri
11. Miami (OH)

3. Vanderbilt
14. Troy

St. Louis (F/Su)
7. St. Mary's
10. UCF

2. Purdue
15. Tennessee St.
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Method Man
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 3:54p, 3/15/26
ColleyvilleAg06 said:
Cajun Ag 86 said:
Arkansas hiring a blue blood coach pays off with a championship early on.


Having a five star point guard who is an NBA lottery pick and making more than $1 million in NL this year helps also.

I am also old enough to remember all the way back to last year when first year coach Calipari started 0-5 in the SEC and his fan base wanted to fire him
A million? That's cheap.
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Method Man
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3:56p, 3/15/26
As Marc Ag pointed out if we play Nova is the Buzz game. Maryland's coach left for Nova.
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aggiebones
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4:08p, 3/15/26
AG
The dreaded 8/9
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ColleyvilleAg06
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6:04p, 3/15/26
AG
I am pretty happy with our draw.

I'll do a full review of what I got right/wrong after getting the kids down but I feel good about things for the most part. 68/68 but almost every bracketologist will be able to say that this year. Went out on a limb last night with moving Purdue to a 2. Got that right . On a limb putting Houston as 5 overall and pushing UConn to dukes region. Got the east essentially exact. Missed badly on Vandy. Missed on us and can't be happier about it.
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NyAggie
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 6:09p, 3/15/26
AG
ColleyvilleAg06 said:
I am pretty happy with our draw.

I'll do a full review of what I got right/wrong after getting the kids down but I feel good about things for the most part. 68/68 but almost every bracketologist will be able to say that this year. Went out on a limb last night with moving Purdue to a 2. Got that right . On a limb putting Houston as 5 overall and pushing UConn to dukes region. Got the east essentially exact. Missed badly on Vandy. Missed on us and can't be happier about it.


You did great!

With regard to us, we were not only a 10 see but it looks like the last 10 seed as they had a 40 next to our name
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LouisvilleAg
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 6:37p, 3/15/26
AG
ColleyvilleAg06 said:
I am pretty happy with our draw.

I'll do a full review of what I got right/wrong after getting the kids down but I feel good about things for the most part. 68/68 but almost every bracketologist will be able to say that this year. Went out on a limb last night with moving Purdue to a 2. Got that right . On a limb putting Houston as 5 overall and pushing UConn to dukes region. Got the east essentially exact. Missed badly on Vandy. Missed on us and can't be happier about it.


If you rank the teams from 1 to 68, I was off by an average of 1.47 lines. I think that is pretty good. Got 28 exactly right. Another 14 were 1 line off. Another 14 were within 2 lines.

I was way off on Vanderbilt, Penn, and UMBC. 2 off those were because of today's results that I did not factor in.
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bobinator
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7:07p, 3/15/26
AG
I can't believe they had Miami of Ohio as the last team in. What are we doing
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JJxvi
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7:10p, 3/15/26
AG
I like how they found some logical pretzel where being the lowest ranked at large team doesn't mean you were the last team in.
Hardworking, Unselfish, Fearless
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LouisvilleAg
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In reply to bobinator • 7:16p, 3/15/26
AG
bobinator said:
I can't believe they had Miami of Ohio as the last team in. What are we doing

Their metrics were terrible. They only got in because they went undefeated in the regular season.
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bobinator
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In reply to LouisvilleAg • 7:20p, 3/15/26
AG
Their WAB was 37. Their predictive metrics were bad, their resume metrics should have kept them out of Dayton. Or at least not the very last team in.
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LouisvilleAg
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7:33p, 3/15/26
AG
366 on the bracket scorer out of a possible 408 or 89.7%..

Highest score last year on BM was 376. Wonder what it will be this year. Bet someone beats that.

Highest in the last 5 years was 378. So maybe not.
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LouisvilleAg
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In reply to bobinator • 7:34p, 3/15/26
AG
bobinator said:
Their WAB was 37. Their predictive metrics were bad, their resume metrics should have kept them out of Dayton. Or at least not the very last team in.

KenPom 93
BPI 93
T-Rank 86
SOR 28
WAB 37
KPI 53
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Divining Rod
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7:37p, 3/15/26
gotta love that bozo in response to Pearl's question of what was the definining criteria for those last four in and out, he said they were looking at the strength of their top wins.

Really? And Auburn lost out on that?????
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chap
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In reply to bobinator • 7:43p, 3/15/26
AG
bobinator said:
Their WAB was 37. Their predictive metrics were bad, their resume metrics should have kept them out of Dayton. Or at least not the very last team in.


Keith Gill said on the broadcast the committee had them ranked higher than NC State, tu, and SMU.
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bobinator
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In reply to chap • 7:45p, 3/15/26
AG
Then why aren't they ranked higher?
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chap
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In reply to bobinator • 7:46p, 3/15/26
AG
bobinator said:
Then why aren't they ranked higher?


I stopped trying to guess why they say different things than they do.
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JJxvi
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7:48p, 3/15/26
AG
He said they were chosen to be in the tournament before those teams. But they published a seed list with those teams ahead of them.
Hardworking, Unselfish, Fearless
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bobinator
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In reply to JJxvi • 7:51p, 3/15/26
AG
Wtf are we doing here

I mean ultimately it doesn't really matter at least in this case
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JJxvi
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8:10p, 3/15/26
AG
Can somebody compare the seed list to WAB?
Hardworking, Unselfish, Fearless
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bobinator
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In reply to JJxvi • 8:23p, 3/15/26
AG
Here's what an AI kicked out when I asked it to compare the two, I haven't completely fact checked this since it pulled the true seeds from an image but the first few looked right.

Texas got cut off on my copy/paste from WAB but was 46
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t-rex
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10:56p, 3/15/26
AG
So is my interpretation correct that we were only a line or two from being in Dayton?
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