We're almost to the end of April, and discussions about RPI, national seeds, and even the SEC title are heating up for the Ags!

I've always loved the content bobinator and ColleyvilleAg06 bring to the Basketball Board as the stretch run towards March Madness takes place, and I wanted to try to bring something similar to the great folks over here on the Baseball Board.

I'm a huge nerd over this stuff, and try to build a mock bracket every week or so as a hobby. Would love your feedback because, after all, this is a discussion board! If the discussion ends up just being me talking to myself, so be it

***LAST UPDATED: 5/4***

SUMMARY: Everyone exhale. Auburn came in and meant business on Saturday, handing the Ags their first series loss since the second weekend of conference play. Complete disaster was averted by salvaging Sunday, and as such, A&M's metrics remain within range of a Top 8 seed. Barely.

There's still a lot of work to do, but the Ags certainly still control their own destiny in their quest to have the right to host until Omaha. Many have asked what the "magic number" is to clinch. I feel pretty certain that two more SEC wins should have us hosting a Regional. That bubble is very soft.

It's not as clear with the top 8 bubble, but winning both of our final SEC series would all but guarantee it. Some think we just need to go 3-3...we very well could get a top 8 seed with that finish, but it is leaving a lot up to chance.

If you haven't heard, our RPI will drop no matter what if/when the game against PVAMU, but shouldn't go any lower than about 13 as long as A&M wins. The good news is that number will go right back up with a series win in Oxford this weekend, and the committee also has KPI and DSR to look at (those shouldn't be as influenced by one game against a bad opponent). Keep praying for rain!

Texas A&M Snapshot:
35-10 (15-8, 2nd in SEC)
RPI: 8 (-3 from last week)
ELO: 9 (-3)
KPI: 8 (-2)
DSR: 5 (-1)
PEAR NET: 4 (no change)
SoS: 24 (+8)

Q1: 12-9
Q2: 0-0
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 16-0

TL;DR: The Ags picked up five Q1 wins this weekend thanks to LSU moving up to 55, Va Tech moving up to 36, and taking 1/3 against Auburn. Only three teams in the country have more Q1 wins than A&M at the moment.

Predicting the Field of 64:
Top 8 Seeds (Right to host until Omaha) - Conference auto-bids are noted
1. UCLA (Big Ten)
2. Georgia Tech (ACC)
3. Texas
4. Georgia (SEC)
5. North Carolina
6. Auburn
7. Kansas (Big 12)
8. Texas A&M

Georgia is the big outlier from an RPI standpoint, but I'm keeping them here for now as the projected regular season SEC champions. If they do not win the SEC, they will fall towards the back end of this list (probably around 6). Kansas may surprise some that haven't watched them, but the Jayhawks are legit and looking like they will win the Big 12 running away. The committee likes to reward teams like that and I have them as the last national seed for now.

Remaining Regional Hosts (9-16)
9. Florida State
10. Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt)
11. Alabama
12. Southern Miss
13. Mississippi State
14. Florida
15. Oregon State
16. Ole Miss

Florida State rockets back up the ladder after sweeping Pitt at home. I think A&M's resume edges them at the moment, but it's close. Elsewhere, Alabama is another team to watch for a top 8, and Mississippi State and A&M's series at Blue Bell could decide who gets the last nod. The last two host spots were a disaster to pick. Oregon State's struggles have been noted, and they are mathematically eliminated from finishing in the top 16 of the RPI, but I think the committee throws them a bone if they stay top 20. Ole Miss is playing for their hosting lives this weekend after losing back to back series, but Nebraska was swept at Ohio State (yikes) and USC still does not have a Q1 win. No way the committee rewards that resume, right?

One Bid League Auto-bids
17. America East (Binghamton)
18. ASUN (North Florida)
19. A10 (Saint Joesph's) *Moved from "Other Auto-bids" last week
20. Big East (Saint John's)
21. Coastal (Campbell)
22. Horizon (Wright State)
23. Ivy (Penn)
24. MAAC (Rider)
25. Missouri Valley (Indiana State)
26. Mountain West (San Diego State)
27. NEC (Fairleigh Dickinson)
28. Patriot (Army)
29. Southland (SE Louisiana)
30. SWAC (Bethune Cookman)
31. Summit (Oral Roberts)

Other Auto-bids (Champ is currently in top 60 of RPI, meaning at-large is possible)
32. American (UTSA, 38 RPI) *Would definitely be in as at large today
33. Big South (High Point, 53)
34. Big West (UC Santa Barbara, 31) *Would definitely be in as at large today
35. CUSA (Jacksonville State, 28) *Would definitely be in as at large today
36. MAC (Kent State, 45)
37. Ohio Valley (Eastern Illinois, 57)
38. SoCon (Western Carolina, 48)
39. West Coast (Gonzaga, 54)
40. WAC (Tarleton State, 58)

That leaves 24 additional at-large spots up for grabs!

2 Seeds (Grouped in pods of four to assign to hosts on a general s-curve)
41. Nebraska
42. USC
43. Virginia
44. Arkansas

45. Oklahoma
46. Cincinnati
47. Wake Forest
48. West Virginia

(These four most likely to be sent to A&M on the s-curve)
49. Oregon
50. Boston College
51. Arizona State
52. UCF

53. Tennessee
(Jacksonville State)
54. Liberty
55. Oklahoma State

At large 3 Seeds (The Bubble)
56. Kentucky
57. NC State
58. Miami (FL)
59. Missouri State
60. Michigan
61. Virginia Tech
62. Pitt
63. East Carolina
64. Louisiana

***Bubble Bursts Here***

65. TCU
66. Miami (OH)
67. UAB
68. Clemson
69. Purdue
70. Dallas Baptist
71. Arkansas State
72. Vanderbilt
73. Iowa
74. Mercer
75. LSU

For the visual learners:

Seed List:


Potential A&M Path to Omaha (If the season ended today)

Thank you for creating this thread!

Good info, Nice presentation. No subscription fee!

Good analysis. Thanks

That was the short way to explain the new process for the 2-seeds this year. Longer version:

The committee will seed teams 1-32 in order. Teams 17-32 (the 2-seeds in each regional) will be grouped into pods of four (17-20, 21-24, 25-28, 29-32). Those pods of four will be paired up with corresponding pods of four for the one-seeds (I.e. 29-32 with 1-4, 25-28 with 5-8, etc.) on an s-curve. It helps balance out the regionals more so than when they were purely geography based, but they have to leave themselves a little wiggle room to avoid multiple teams from the same conference being in a regional, and (probably) to cherry-pick some interesting matchups.

Clear as mud?

I really appreciate your information and really only have one observation. With your list of national seeds including 7 SEC teams (4 in 1-8 and 3 more in 9-16), you do not have a single SEC vs SEC matchup at a super regional, potentially allowing all 7 teams to make it to Omaha. I don't see any way that the committee will allow that. They have the opportunity to eliminate 3 SEC teams just by slating 1-16, which gives other conferences a better chance to keep some representation at Omaha.

I certainly don't question your lists based on results, talent, performance, etc, I just question the committee leaving the possibility of so many SEC teams making it to the CWS (I refuse to use MCWS) and cutting out regional interest from other fans in other areas. Unfortunate, but history shows that we won't see SEC vs SEC supers minimized.

And if you really want to nerd out on this with folks that have been doing so for a long time and have really good insight into the behind the scenes stuff, I highly recommend the NerdCast. It's among my absolute favorite content during this part of the season.

Week 12 Nerdcast: 2026 Field of 64 Projection + Bubble Breakdown https://t.co/TGAW5EPNdp

— D1Baseball (@d1baseball) April 28, 2026

D1 Nerd Cast is the best.

I try to beat their release each week so I can't cheat...

**Spoiler alert if you want to watch the D1 Video**

This week we ended up with the exact same top 8 and 9-16 (just in a slightly different order), 14/16 on the 2/3-seed line, and just two different at-large decisions. I had Michigan and Kentucky in, the D1 guys swapped them for Texas State and Vanderbilt (my first two teams out).

I love what those guys do!

I've been addicted to RPI and projections for as long as they've existed so live seeing this thread! Thank you OP!

None taken at all. They are what inspired me to try it for myself a few years back. Like I said, love what they do and how they do it!

Three more conference wins, in theory. But I don't want to find out what it looks like if we get there by going 1-2 in our last three series.

Ags are up to 4 in the RPI, 3 in the DSR, and held steady at 6 in the KPI after a hard-fought win over Tarleton.

Consider me someone who would like to see the Texans somewhere other than Olsen for a regional, that team will give whatever host draws them all kinds of fits.

Also, as others have mentioned, next week's game against Prairie View is the ultimate lose-lose situation. Currently a 10% chance of rain for next Tuesday, maybe we could leave the sprinklers on Monday night?

They probably don't have the arms to win a regional, but they could either beat you or force you to use high leverage arms on Friday. Either way, they throw off the plan and make it a lot more difficult than a typical four.