***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

8,630,345 Views | 50287 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by Waffledynamics
GAC06
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Yeah I've seen the videos like you have. Just pointing out that the sentence you wanted to charge someone with murder over was more about the lack of detection ability than how worried a crew needs to be about a drone.
ABATTBQ11
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Then the operative word should be "can fly" instead of just "fly". They're not slow, and this kind of training is detached from the reality we've seen.
Eliminatus
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Then the operative word should be "can fly" instead of just "fly". They're not slow, and this kind of training is detached from the reality we've seen.


We are remarkably bad at adapting to tactics during peacetime. It costs lives every single f'ing conflict we get in to as we play catch up. And it's usually the same story over and over. A stubborn brass who simply can't see how the world changes around them. Thankfully, we are pretty good at making changes quickly once in the fight most times, once the bodies start piling up of course…

Our arrogance can be pretty disgusting to witness at times ngl.

Speaking of not adapting, Russia latest offensive pushes are a prime example of dogmatic "tactics". 3.5 years in and it is still stunning how they are perpetuating this war. Sending armored columns into prepared defenses to get butchered over and over and over again. It's just, madness. Simply no other way to describe it. Granted, I don't think they really can do anything else. Their pool of experienced soldiers and officers isn't exactly deep at this point to pull off anything complex. Not that they would anyways I guess. The Russians are just that bad at war, strategically.
MouthBQ98
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I think Russia has decided to systematically creep forward at the front even though their rate of progress will make this a generational war, and rely on ever increasing volumes of terror drone/missile strikes against urban centers as they ramp up wartime drone production.
LMCane
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POTUS TRUMP just sold an entire Patriot Battery to NATO for delivery to the Ukes
JFABNRGR
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MouthBQ98 said:

I think Russia has decided to systematically creep forward at the front even though their rate of progress will make this a generational war, and rely on ever increasing volumes of terror drone/missile strikes against urban centers as they ramp up wartime drone production.

Somebody posted on reddit, after doing an analysis of russian time & loss per unit of land gained, that it would take roughly 75 years and 60 million more casualties. I don't recall actual numbers but it was massive.
Naveronski
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JFABNRGR said:

MouthBQ98 said:

I think Russia has decided to systematically creep forward at the front even though their rate of progress will make this a generational war, and rely on ever increasing volumes of terror drone/missile strikes against urban centers as they ramp up wartime drone production.

Somebody posted on reddit, after doing an analysis of russian time & loss per unit of land gained, that it would take roughly 75 years and 60 million more casualties. I don't recall actual numbers but it was massive.

Careful, those numbers might be acceptable to Putin.
74OA
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Russia is now using cruise missiles loaded with cluster bomblets to attack civilian areas in Ukrainian cities.

Putin is conducting a straightforward terror campaign and war crimes are integral to it.

This is the world Putin (and Xi) would give us all unless they are stopped.

KH101
nortex97
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Chernivtski is a key/significant logistics ('processing') hub.

Both sides have employed cluster munitions to the extent available.
74OA
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Sure, we use cluster munitions, too.

But to the best of my knowledge, Ukraine has not used them against Russian cities or Russian civilians.

Launching an indiscriminate area weapon into the middle of a city, rather than using a precise munition, is the war crime.
lb3
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ABATTBQ11 said:

I get that speed a relative term in this context, but some of these drones are going 40-50mph when they are attacking a target. That will give you maybe a few seconds to react. They can also attack in groups and come from multiple directions at once while being coordinated from other drones. This response is kind of stupid and, if anything, should be changed to preparing for immediate engagement with a shotgun or other weapon.
Radars use a Doppler cutoff to filter radar returns. 40-50 miles per hour is quick in human terms but setting the Doppler filter at 30 mph would result in birds and even ground vehicles cluttering up the radar displays.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

[color=#e7e9ea][size=3][font=TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]US President Donald Trump announced large-scale and rapid military aid supplies to Ukraine via NATO and possible future secondary tariffs against Russia.

Trump stated on July 14 during a meeting with NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte that the United States will impose "severe" 100 percent secondary tariffs on Russia's trade partners if there is no peace settlement to end Russia's war in Ukraine within 50 days.

Trump also announced that the United States will send "billions of dollars' worth" of military equipment and weapons to NATO, that NATO will pay for the US weapons, and that NATO will "quickly distribute" these weapons to Ukrainian forces. Rutte stated that NATO will supply Ukraine with "massive" amounts of military equipment, including air defenses, missiles, and ammunition. Trump answered a question about whether the United States was providing Patriot air defense batteries or just missiles, stating that the United States will send "everything…a full complement with the batteries."

Trump stated that some Patriot systems will arrive in Ukraine "within days" as unspecified NATO states give Ukraine their own Patriot systems, after which the United States will replace those systems. Trump stated that an unspecified state has "17 Patriots ready to be shipped" and that a "big portion of the 17 will go to the war zone" in Ukraine "very quickly." It is unclear if Trump was referring to 17 Patriot launchers or batteries.[/font][/size][/color]

ShotOver
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Waffledynamics said:



Quote:

[color=#e7e9ea][size=3][font=TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]US President Donald Trump announced large-scale and rapid military aid supplies to Ukraine via NATO and possible future secondary tariffs against Russia.

Trump stated on July 14 during a meeting with NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte that the United States will impose "severe" 100 percent secondary tariffs on Russia's trade partners if there is no peace settlement to end Russia's war in Ukraine within 50 days.

Trump also announced that the United States will send "billions of dollars' worth" of military equipment and weapons to NATO, that NATO will pay for the US weapons, and that NATO will "quickly distribute" these weapons to Ukrainian forces. Rutte stated that NATO will supply Ukraine with "massive" amounts of military equipment, including air defenses, missiles, and ammunition. Trump answered a question about whether the United States was providing Patriot air defense batteries or just missiles, stating that the United States will send "everything…a full complement with the batteries."

Trump stated that some Patriot systems will arrive in Ukraine "within days" as unspecified NATO states give Ukraine their own Patriot systems, after which the United States will replace those systems. Trump stated that an unspecified state has "17 Patriots ready to be shipped" and that a "big portion of the 17 will go to the war zone" in Ukraine "very quickly." It is unclear if Trump was referring to 17 Patriot launchers or batteries.[/font][/size][/color]




This equipment should have been provided months ago. Someone's ego wouldn't allow it.
benchmark
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ShotOver said:

This equipment should have been provided months ago. Someone's ego wouldn't allow it.

Absolutely and most of us knew appeasing Putin wouldn't work. However on the flip side, no one can claim the US didn't make a legit effort to stop the war.
trip
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Trump tried diplomacy, now I hope we bury Russia.
TacosaurusRex
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ShotOver said:

Waffledynamics said:



Quote:

[color=#e7e9ea][size=3][font=TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]US President Donald Trump announced large-scale and rapid military aid supplies to Ukraine via NATO and possible future secondary tariffs against Russia.

Trump stated on July 14 during a meeting with NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte that the United States will impose "severe" 100 percent secondary tariffs on Russia's trade partners if there is no peace settlement to end Russia's war in Ukraine within 50 days.

Trump also announced that the United States will send "billions of dollars' worth" of military equipment and weapons to NATO, that NATO will pay for the US weapons, and that NATO will "quickly distribute" these weapons to Ukrainian forces. Rutte stated that NATO will supply Ukraine with "massive" amounts of military equipment, including air defenses, missiles, and ammunition. Trump answered a question about whether the United States was providing Patriot air defense batteries or just missiles, stating that the United States will send "everything…a full complement with the batteries."

Trump stated that some Patriot systems will arrive in Ukraine "within days" as unspecified NATO states give Ukraine their own Patriot systems, after which the United States will replace those systems. Trump stated that an unspecified state has "17 Patriots ready to be shipped" and that a "big portion of the 17 will go to the war zone" in Ukraine "very quickly." It is unclear if Trump was referring to 17 Patriot launchers or batteries.[/font][/size][/color]




This equipment should have been provided months ago. Someone's ego wouldn't allow it.

Yea.. I am not going to fault someone for trying to peacefully end a war and not add billions to our debt. Now, if Russia isn't on its way to being buried after the 50 days, unleash the floodgates of criticism.
"If you are reading this, I have passed on from this world — not as big a deal for you as it was for me."
T. Boone Pickens
FIDO_Ags
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Not sure why we have to wait another 50 days to start this up. Russia isn't changing course in the next two months.
docb
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FIDO_Ags said:

Not sure why we have to wait another 50 days to start this up. Russia isn't changing course in the next two months.

I totally agree with that. Makes you wonder what in the world the 50 day ultimatum is about? If you want to be tough on Putin just do it already.
TacosaurusRex
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FIDO_Ags said:

Not sure why we have to wait another 50 days to start this up. Russia isn't changing course in the next two months.

I am just a dude that reads the internet like everyone else, but I am thinking the 50 days isn't for Russia. The amount of ordnance dropped during the 12 Day War and the bombing of the Houthis leading up to it is going to take time to replenish.

The other part of it that seemed to be hammered home during the interview is that these would be secondary sanctions aimed at all of Russia's friends, or just those still trying to buy cheap oil. Maybe the hope is to force Russia's sponsors to second guess themselves. I don't mean China or Iran, but the smaller guys still trying to play war with their friends.
"If you are reading this, I have passed on from this world — not as big a deal for you as it was for me."
T. Boone Pickens
japantiger
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Waffledynamics said:



Quote:

[color=#e7e9ea][size=3][font=TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]US President Donald Trump announced large-scale and rapid military aid supplies to Ukraine via NATO and possible future secondary tariffs against Russia.

Trump stated on July 14 during a meeting with NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte that the United States will impose "severe" 100 percent secondary tariffs on Russia's trade partners if there is no peace settlement to end Russia's war in Ukraine within 50 days.

Trump also announced that the United States will send "billions of dollars' worth" of military equipment and weapons to NATO, that NATO will pay for the US weapons, and that NATO will "quickly distribute" these weapons to Ukrainian forces. Rutte stated that NATO will supply Ukraine with "massive" amounts of military equipment, including air defenses, missiles, and ammunition. Trump answered a question about whether the United States was providing Patriot air defense batteries or just missiles, stating that the United States will send "everything…a full complement with the batteries."

Trump stated that some Patriot systems will arrive in Ukraine "within days" as unspecified NATO states give Ukraine their own Patriot systems, after which the United States will replace those systems. Trump stated that an unspecified state has "17 Patriots ready to be shipped" and that a "big portion of the 17 will go to the war zone" in Ukraine "very quickly." It is unclear if Trump was referring to 17 Patriot launchers or batteries.[/font][/size][/color]



I like this approach. We actually SELL things to the Europeans...and they "GIVE" them to Ukraine. Instead of us "GIVING" billions to Ukraine. Now it's up to the Europeans to determine how much "THEY" support Ukraine. Now, we just make $$...a very good move.
74OA
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Europe (EU + individual countries) has already provided and pledged a dollar total more than twice what the US has given.

The Europeans haven't always had the munitions/weapons Ukraine needs, but they have more than put their money where their mouth is since the start of the war.

SUPPORT
nortex97
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This is largely due to (a) the previous administration using fully depreciated value of military aid, and (b) the EU paying for our military aid in part. Our net aid to Kiev very likely still exceeds what they've sent, and in truth I suspect the cost to replace the depreciated gear/ammo/equipment also exceeds what we have put down on the books. (The Germans for example also highly value their donations, such as IRIS air defense systems.)

It seems from that report that this year we have shipped nothing tangible, though I suspect that is because it is accounted for in the October-December appropriation/allocation, and in real supplies the following chart would look comparatively flat if tracking actual shipments;

Essentially, I think it's difficult to really make a judgment here.
74OA
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nortex97 said:

This is largely due to (a) the previous administration using fully depreciated value of military aid, and (b) the EU paying for our military aid in part. Our net aid to Kiev very likely still exceeds what they've sent, and in truth I suspect the cost to replace the depreciated gear/ammo/equipment also exceeds what we have put down on the books. (The Germans for example also highly value their donations, such as IRIS air defense systems.)

It seems from that report that this year we have shipped nothing tangible, though I suspect that is because it is accounted for in the October-December appropriation/allocation, and in real supplies the following chart would look comparatively flat if tracking actual shipments;

Essentially, I think it's difficult to really make a judgment here.

Not at all. Depreciation quibbles notwithstanding, the combination of European (EU + individual countries) aid expenditures and pledged future aid spending far exceeds what the has the US has provided in dollar value.

Plus, almost all US direct military aid money has been spent right here in the US to restock the older US munitions/weapons donated to Ukraine. Much of this is money DOD would have had to spend anyway to replace munitions at the end of their shelf life and weapons that are becoming out of date.

Anyway, isn't this sort of European commitment exactly what so many have been demanding? Take the win.
Waffledynamics
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Yeesh...
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Additional US military aid to Ukrainian forces will arrive at a dynamic, not static, frontline characterized by ongoing Russian offensive operations aimed at achieving slow maneuver and by Ukrainian counterattacks in key frontline areas.

Russian forces intensified offensive operations throughout the theater in February and March 2025 and have maintained pressure along the entire frontline over the last six months.

Russian forces have established or are actively establishing at least eight salients that Russian forces could leverage in mutually reinforcing tactical- and operational-level envelopments along the frontline.

ISW assessed in late January 2025 that Russian forces were developing and disseminating a doctrinal method of advance throughout the theater that aims to conduct slow envelopments of frontline settlements at a scale that is reasonable for Russian forces to conclude before culminating, and Russian patterns of advance over the last six months are consistent with this assessment.

The Russian military command's apparent decision to bypass the Ukrainian fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast and attempts at a multi-year operation to envelop the southern half of the fortress belt further underscores Russia's commitment to this new doctrinal method.
CS78
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Waffledynamics said:



Yeesh...


Sad that humanity allows one individual to create that much destruction, suffering, and despair.

On a lighter note, stop video at :57 and videographer is carrying a wooden stocked 12ga bird gun. Obviously for drones.
AgBank
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74OA said:

Europe (EU + individual countries) has already provided and pledged a dollar total more than twice what the US has given.

The Europeans haven't always had the munitions/weapons Ukraine needs, but they have more than put their money where their mouth is since the start of the war.

SUPPORT

It seems Spain and Italy are free ridding on this one. Perhaps they will pickup the next existential threat themselves?
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Not good.

74OA
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Link is an update on the arms sale agreement and also the status of current frontline fighting: SITREP.


Waffledynamics
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Germany is also delivering these.
Waffledynamics
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Ukraine has been working on their own production as well.

74OA
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Looks as though Ukraine has something to sell, too.

"Ukraine's Ministry for Strategic Industries unveiled a wide array of domestically produced drones to a high-level U.S. delegation on 15 July, highlighting how the war-torn nation is scaling up production to meet the unprecedented demands of modern warfare."

INNOVATION

"The United States has expressed interest in purchasing Ukrainian-made drones, while Kyiv looks to acquire advanced weaponry from American defense manufacturers, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in comments published Wednesday."

DRONES
txags92
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74OA said:

Looks as though Ukraine has something to sell, too.

"Ukraine's Ministry for Strategic Industries unveiled a wide array of domestically produced drones to a high-level U.S. delegation on 15 July, highlighting how the war-torn nation is scaling up production to meet the unprecedented demands of modern warfare."

INNOVATION

"The United States has expressed interest in purchasing Ukrainian-made drones, while Kyiv looks to acquire advanced weaponry from American defense manufacturers, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in comments published Wednesday."

DRONES

Probably going to let our defense contractors get a license from Ukraine to build them in the US and charge the DoD 150X what Ukraine can build them for.
Waffledynamics
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Important thread:



Full text:

Quote:

The seriousness of the situation on the frontlines was recently laid out in detail by Olexandr Solonko, a soldier currently serving in Donetsk Oblast. I strongly recommend reading the translated version closely if you're trying to understand the situation on the ground. Thread:

We are approaching a moment when we will very likely face another major crisis on the front. While the world's powerful play their games of "two weeks" and "50 days" and try in every way to demonstrate resolve where there is none, we will have to withstand the desperate pressure of the Russians. Both on the front and in the rear

Where we are now: The Russians believe that if they press with all their might now, they can finally break us. This belief is based, among other things, on the long, attrition war, the escalation of regular attacks on military targets, the defense industry, and the terrorizing of civilians in the rear

They aim to undermine our economic potential, disrupt mobilization through subversive activities, propaganda, and now airstrikes, as well as aggressive informational and semantic warfare. Their often successful efforts to undermine Ukraine's support from foreign actors...

...while having the backing of China, North Korea, and foreign companies that love money and sell anything that helps them fight against us.
And also some of Ukraine's Western neighbours, who are our open enemies.

Russians believe that the cumulative effect of these 3.5 years will soon yield results. Whether in 60 days or end of the year, the exact timeline is not as crucial. Whether the West will back its words with action and whether we can fix our mistakes will determine the outcome

The main point is this: they hope that their "last and decisive" push will bring the desired effect. That by burying the infantry of another dozen motorized rifle regiments in the Donetsk region, they will collapse our front.

I see posts where people write that they won't succeed. I hope so too, but there's a question about how we define success or failure. How do we assess this now, and how will we assess it if the enemy surrounds Pokrovsk? They've deployed insane number of forces for this mission

No matter what the news is this summer, we need to focus on the main thing. It's a simple but correct path: in the army or for the army. Those who can kill occupiers should kill occupiers. Those who can help do it more effectively should focus their efforts in that direction

We must stop turning a blind eye to problems and empower competent people, even if they're not always convenient. After everything we've been through, it would be terrible to focus on secondary matters at the most critical moment.

One more thing: We are now in a time of serious crisis. We've weakened, objectively. We're tired, we've suffered losses, and our enemy has significant support in the war against us. In times like these, it's clear who behaves like a jackal.

Who eagerly tries to stab us in the back, like Orban, who, in unison with the Russians, torpedoes efforts to replenish our army. And does everything in sync with them. It's in moments like these that we see most clearly who is who.

We need to remember them all. They must know that they cannot support attempts to destroy us with impunity.

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