Top NATO commander has been ordered to rush delivery of more Patriot systems to Ukraine. Missile production ramping up.

"The commander will soon bring European nations together to work on delivering Patriot and other capabilities, he said, to "look at what's the art of the possible. This will be tied to being able to sequence what flows into Ukraine now … capabilities that are in Europe can be moved more quickly than something off the production line. The production line can then be used to back-fill the capabilities."

PATRIOT

US also diverting Patriot deliveries from Switzerland to Ukraine. Now, that's an aggressively welcome move.

FMS

Quote:

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Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Kamianske of Zaporizhzhia region, Dehtiarne of Kharkiv region and Popiv Yar of Donetsk region of Ukraine

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2025/17-july-09-russian-ministry-of-defense-claims-full-occupation

Glad more Patriot systems are on the way. But Ukraine needs to ultimately neuter Russia from firing so many ALBMs. It would be nice if NATO would supply long range missiles that could threaten Russian airbases

Do we even still have any ground-based tomahawk launchers we could give them? I know we typically launch them from ships and subs. Tomahawks would solve the Crimean bridge issue once and for all and could hit just about anywhere in Russia Ukraine would want to. But sending missiles into Russia that are nuclear capable has its potential drawbacks, even if they are ground launched from Ukraine.

I don't know if we want tomahawks hitting Russian bombers.

But theyd be a great and reasonable option for interrupting shahed production.

SamHou said:

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Glad more Patriot systems are on the way. But Ukraine needs to ultimately neuter Russia from firing so many ALBMs. It would be nice if NATO would supply long range missiles that could threaten Russian airbases

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France and the UK have already provided cruise missiles that can do that, but they have put restrictions on their use inside Russia similar to those of the US regarding ATACMS targeting. It only takes a political decision to unleash them, though.

The good news is Ukraine has developed long-range drones that have been hitting deep into Russia for over a year and has recently developed its own cruise missiles with similarly long range.

Here's more detail on the recent breakthrough on quickly supplying more Patriots: IADS

This would be…a big deal, if true.

2/ NATO chief Mark Rutte stood on Capitol Hill and issued a stunning warning:

🇨🇳 China
🇮🇳 India
🇧🇷 Brazil

💥“This will SLAM BACK… in a massive way.”💥

He told them: push Putin for peace, or Trump’s tariffs will crush your exports and your economies. pic.twitter.com/vb9Nojnazp

— Rod D. Martin (@RodDMartin) July 17, 2025

(Long thread, I have not verified).
Also, of note:

Slovakia was the remaining barrier to the 18th sanctions package passing and that should now lower the price cap on Russian oil exports to $45 ppb. Doesn’t mean it’ll sell that low, but it’ll give Middle Eastern, Indian and Chinese refiners even more leverage for discounts https://t.co/C8FnSdZnc1

— Blake Allen (@Blake_Allen13) July 17, 2025

Aren't a lot of EU countries buying Russian oil? Wouldn't that tariff apply to them as well?

SwigAg11 said:

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Aren't a lot of EU countries buying Russian oil? Wouldn't that tariff apply to them as well?

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No no, they are buying Indian oil. From all those Indian oil fields…wink wink.

“At the same time, 4 drones were in the air within a radius of 200 meters from the transport. They came in turns, circling around.

The guns saved us. Some of the drones were shot down, some were damaged and because of this they missed the car.
2/

— Roy🇨🇦 (@GrandpaRoy2) July 17, 2025

“Several people were wounded by shrapnel.

To say that we are extremely impressed is to say nothing. An aerial carousel of death, a race for the life of the transport, in which we lost simply due to a lack of strength and ammunition.
This is not an equal game.
4/ pic.twitter.com/Ae1FgtQjBH

— Roy🇨🇦 (@GrandpaRoy2) July 17, 2025

“But in this case, shooting really helped out, everyone survived.
On vacation, one of our comrades managed to illegally get into a shooting range in his city through connections. Before the SVO, he had never shot a shotgun.
6/

— Roy🇨🇦 (@GrandpaRoy2) July 17, 2025

“…you cannot shoot with a smoothbore and the shooting company does not have the right to let you into the shooting range.
8/

[Ukrainian soldier shoots down FPV] pic.twitter.com/11Ne46Iptp

— Roy🇨🇦 (@GrandpaRoy2) July 17, 2025

I won't post any additional parts of this thread for TexAgs technical reasons, but the whole thing is pretty interesting.

Russia is trying (and appears to be slowly succeeding) to cut off Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. They will try to take Rodynske to crimp the flow of supplies.

🔥 A local military unit is burning in Rostov-on-Don. pic.twitter.com/x0G1Dah7Fe

— MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) July 18, 2025

Smoke is rising over the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, with reports of a blackout across all occupied areas of the Zaporizhzhia region today. pic.twitter.com/EvfN6TtKYe

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) July 19, 2025

FAFO

Russian soldiers attempt to clear an anti-personnel mine by shooting at it from close range with an assault rifle. pic.twitter.com/iG4yvabFDo

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) July 18, 2025

Doesn't look like they suffered any consequences?

Waffledynamics said:

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Doesn't look like they suffered any consequences?

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Who knows what hurt the blast and debris caused. Far more rational would have been to back off and use the vehicle's machine gun to explode it from a safer distance.

Lately, Russia’s slow progress in the Sumy region is being explained away by some as a diversion, an attempt to pull Ukrainian forces from Donbas, with no serious objectives in Sumy itself. That idea might seem reasonable for some - until you look closer. 🧵Thread:

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 19, 2025

Full thread text:

Quote:

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Lately, Russia's slow progress in the Sumy region is being explained away by some as a diversion, an attempt to pull Ukrainian forces from Donbas, with no serious objectives in Sumy itself. That idea might seem reasonable for some - until you look closer. Thread:

Since the start of the full-scale war, Russia has usually concentrated what it sees as elite assault units in directions it considers valuable, strategic or otherwise important. The current makeup of Russian forces in Sumy direction speaks volumes:

The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, now one of Putin's favorite assault units, the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade, the units from 76th and 106th Air Assault Divisions; the 83rd and 11th Separate Air Assault Brigades, and the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment.

These are the units Moscow tends to deploy mostly where it expects real gains. These units are usually more combat-ready, and better suited for offensive operations than regular motor rifle troops. In Russian military thinking, these are the formations that matter.

There's another theory making the rounds: Russia is trying to stretch the front, forcing Ukraine to thin out. But using "elite" units for that purpose doesn't really add up. And let's not forget: it was Ukraine that expanded the front in August 2024 with Kursk incursion.

Right now, Ukraine is holding its ground in Sumy, largely thanks to the resources allocated to this area. That probably comes at the expense of other areas - most notably Pokrovsk, where the situation is steadily worsening. Still, I'd argue this tradeoff is the right call

If Sumy area were to fall, or if Russian forces pushed deep enough, it could open the way for an advance into Chernihiv oblast. That would put Kyiv under direct threat and force Ukraine to redeploy troops north, weakening other parts of the front.

And at that point, the conversation, both political and military, would shift. Instead of "We can't let Russia take Donbas," it would become, once again, "We can't let them take Kyiv." Just like it did in February and March of 2022. This would be disastrous for Ukraine

And while this might sound optimistic, there are still countless ways the situation could deteriorate, especially if North Korea were to cross the line and directly invade Ukraine. To prevent such a scenario, strong consequences must be outlined for North Koreans

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🇺🇦 AFU have restored positions near Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region, — spokesman for Defense Forces "South"

🗣️“I don’t want to reveal a lot of information, but we have good news — a number of positions have been restored.”

— MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) July 19, 2025

If Russia stops fighting, there will be no war. If Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no Ukraine.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 18 July 2025.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/wmOoAZdzxI #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/yTYA0Hbe7K

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) July 18, 2025

Overnight, russia launched 344 Shahed type strike UAVs, 12 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 8 Iskander-K cruise missiles and 15 Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukraine.

Ukrainian air defenders shot down 185 UAVs, 7 ballistic missiles, 7 Islander-K missiles and 9 Kh-101 missiles.… pic.twitter.com/TX2VkgJuWm

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 19, 2025

Footage of a Ukrainian Air Force interceptor slamming into a Russian Shahed-136 attack drone over northern Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/ONG97ftcY2

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 19, 2025

Violent combined missiles and drones attack continues through the night against Ukraine. Hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles of different types.
Widespread damage to civilian infrastructure have been already reported https://t.co/1BGXuNseIh pic.twitter.com/VfPNpp6HhQ

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) July 21, 2025

❗️ Київ
1х Дарниця

04:58 21.07.25

— monitor (@war_monitor_ua) July 21, 2025

FYI this is a good follow to track drone movements almost in real time. You'll need to look via your computer and translate to English, though.

Quote:

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Smoke is rising over Kyiv as result of Russian combined attack

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2025/21-july-02-smoke-is-rising-over-kyiv-as-result-of-russian

Russian blogger “Mad Dogs” describes the deadly tactics of Ukrainian FPV teams.

“Enemy Methods: How They Lure Us into an FPV

The enemy has become craftier—they no longer fire indiscriminately but operate with pauses, like experienced hunters. They fire, then lie low.
1/ https://t.co/JczQf8SUD4 pic.twitter.com/gMZEGpIPBf

— Roy🇨🇦 (@GrandpaRoy2) July 20, 2025

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9 UAVs from the Black Sea area enter the coast of Mykolaiv region. Course North. 06:19 21.07.25

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⚠️ 9х БпЛА з акваторїї Чорного моря заходять на узбережжя Миколаївської області.
Курс Північний.

06:19 21.07.25

— monitor (@war_monitor_ua) July 21, 2025

Grim.

"Russia's "swarm" tactics against Ukraine are increasingly cutting through Ukraine's defenses, with drones striking targets at three times the typical rate in recent months, according to official data. Mass attacks of Shaheds, an Iranian-designed drone now manufactured in Russia, appear to be overwhelming Ukraine's beleaguered air defenses, with the drone hit rate reaching its highest levels since Moscow's invasion. Ukrainian air force data suggests about 15 per cent of the drones penetrated defenses on average between April and June rising from just 5 per cent in the previous three months."

RAIDS

74OA said:

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Grim.

"Russia's "swarm" tactics against Ukraine are increasingly cutting through Ukraine's defenses, with drones striking targets at three times the typical rate in recent months, according to official data. Mass attacks of Shaheds, an Iranian-designed drone now manufactured in Russia, appear to be overwhelming Ukraine's beleaguered air defenses, with the drone hit rate reaching its highest levels since Moscow's invasion. Ukrainian air force data suggests about 15 per cent of the drones penetrated defenses on average between April and June rising from just 5 per cent in the previous three months."

RAIDS

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Russia finally wised up and just dedicated fully to Saturation raids. And absolutely no one has the sustainable answer to it right now.

Perhaps lasers but the tech still isn't quite there yet and the implementation of even basic coverage and initial costs are tremendous. Even if it starts as just roving bands of truck mounted emitters.

I've been seeing more about interceptor drones. Perhaps those will ramp up production further?

Lasers are probably the only sustainable long term defense against drones. But the cost to maintain this in situ outside of war time will most likely be tremendous. I'm not sure many countries will be able to afford anything sustainable. Maybe the US, China, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. Maybe. But SK and Japan at the least soon won't have enough people to even operate them.

The tech leap happening right now is crazy and we'll look back at the Ukraine-Russia war (and to a much smaller extent the Azerbaijan-Armenia dust up) like WWI can point back to the US Civil War and Crimean War as tech and strategy proving grounds.

They'll be a part but it's very similar to Battle of Britain stuff imho. You have to have them in place and then direct them and you'll get some but a lot will get through. And you'll see strategies like decoys that will go in to pull your interceptors away and so forth. And as the tech on the drones gets better (faster) the harder it will be. You'll see more AI targeting assistance at that point as the attack drones will start performing more evasive maneuvers once they know interceptors are in the area.

aezmvp said:

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They'll be a part but it's very similar to Battle of Britain stuff imho. You have to have them in place and then direct them and you'll get some but a lot will get through. And you'll see strategies like decoys that will go in to pull your interceptors away and so forth. And as the tech on the drones gets better (faster) the harder it will be. You'll see more AI targeting assistance at that point as the attack drones will start performing more evasive maneuvers once they know interceptors are in the area.

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The problem with decoying the Russian drones is that you can't just throw up a fake apartment building in the countryside. As long as they are indiscriminately attacking Ukranian cities, knocking them down is the only real way to stop them. The problem with lasers is getting them line of sight to the target without making the laser turret a sitting duck too. I would be a big fan of us giving the Ukes the tech/weapons necessary to go after the drone manufacturing sites in Russia.

Must go after the manufacturing plants.

Russia swarming 400-800 drones per attack would be difficult for anyone to counter. The answer is to attack their drone production and munitions stores so they can't stockpile a week's worth of production. But Ukraine just doesn't have the reach to take them out.

What Ukraine needs is about 400 P51s. Cheap. Just the right speed. Maneuverable as hell. And 6 .50s each. Modify them to carry more ammo.

lb3 said:

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Russia swarming 400-800 drones per attack would be difficult for anyone to counter. The answer is to attack their drone production and munitions stores so they can't stockpile a week's worth of production. But Ukraine just doesn't have the reach to take them out.

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Actually, Ukraine's long-range drones do have sufficient reach, but they often can't carry enough payload at extreme range to do meaningful damage.