Apollo79 said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Of course it is always "TDS".

Funny how some of you people can never even consider that Trump is wrong and someone else is right.

---

yes most intelligent economists believe he should cut rates, what other plausible reason is there for Powell not to? He did it to help Harris in the run for President what's the deal now?

Funny how some of you people can never consider people rather see the country fail then help Trump.

---

Fed Board voted 9-2 (1 abstention) to keep rates steady this month. Fed Chair does not unilaterally decide whether or not to lower or raise rates.

Apollo79 said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Of course it is always "TDS".

Funny how some of you people can never even consider that Trump is wrong and someone else is right.

---

yes most intelligent economists believe he should cut rates, what other plausible reason is there for Powell not to? He did it to help Harris in the run for President what's the deal now?

Funny how some of you people can never consider people rather see the country fail then help Trump.

---

Inflation

Correction said:

---

Apollo79 said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Of course it is always "TDS".

Funny how some of you people can never even consider that Trump is wrong and someone else is right.

---

yes most intelligent economists believe he should cut rates, what other plausible reason is there for Powell not to? He did it to help Harris in the run for President what's the deal now?

Funny how some of you people can never consider people rather see the country fail then help Trump.

---

Fed Board voted 9-2 (1 abstention) to keep rates steady this month. Fed Chair does not unilaterally decide whether or not to lower or raise rates.

---

You are saying they don't take their direction from Powell? Sure bud

Apollo79 said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Of course it is always "TDS".

Funny how some of you people can never even consider that Trump is wrong and someone else is right.

---

yes most intelligent economists believe he should cut rates, what other plausible reason is there for Powell not to? He did it to help Harris in the run for President what's the deal now?

Funny how some of you people can never consider people rather see the country fail then help Trump.

---

"Help Trump"

That is really what it is all about with you people. All about making Trump look good.

samurai_science said:

---

Apollo79 said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Of course it is always "TDS".

Funny how some of you people can never even consider that Trump is wrong and someone else is right.

---

yes most intelligent economists believe he should cut rates, what other plausible reason is there for Powell not to? He did it to help Harris in the run for President what's the deal now?

Funny how some of you people can never consider people rather see the country fail then help Trump.

---

Inflation

---

1. Inflation is at the lowest levels it has been for some time

Quote:

---

• Overall Inflation:
  The annual inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has generally decreased compared to the previous year. In June 2025, it was at 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May, but still below the levels seen earlier in the year.
  
• Core Inflation:

---

2. Wasthere not inflation during the time cut rates when Harris/Biden were running for President?

Rapier108 said:

---

Apollo79 said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Of course it is always "TDS".

Funny how some of you people can never even consider that Trump is wrong and someone else is right.

---

yes most intelligent economists believe he should cut rates, what other plausible reason is there for Powell not to? He did it to help Harris in the run for President what's the deal now?

Funny how some of you people can never consider people rather see the country fail then help Trump.

---

"Help Trump"

That is really what it is all about with you people. All about making Trump look good.

---

Novel idea help the president be successful in running the country. Thats really all its about with you people making Trump look bad.

Apollo79 said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Of course it is always "TDS".

Funny how some of you people can never even consider that Trump is wrong and someone else is right.

---

yes most intelligent economists believe he should cut rates, what other plausible reason is there for Powell not to? He did it to help Harris in the run for President what's the deal now?

Funny how some of you people can never consider people rather see the country fail then help Trump.

---

Which "intelligent economists" think that? We are still coming out of the Biden (and previously Trump) stimulus inflation and a rate cut slows that recovery. Trump wants rates cut because he wants to be able to brag that he made houses/etc cheaper. Not much more complicated than that.

What rate of inflation are you good with?

Apollo79 said:

---

samurai_science said:

---

Apollo79 said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Of course it is always "TDS".

Funny how some of you people can never even consider that Trump is wrong and someone else is right.

---

yes most intelligent economists believe he should cut rates, what other plausible reason is there for Powell not to? He did it to help Harris in the run for President what's the deal now?

Funny how some of you people can never consider people rather see the country fail then help Trump.

---

Inflation

---

1. Inflation is at the lowest levels it has been for some time

Quote:

---

• Overall Inflation:
  The annual inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has generally decreased compared to the previous year. In June 2025, it was at 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May, but still below the levels seen earlier in the year.
  
• Core Inflation:

---

2. Wasthere not inflation during the time cut rates when Harris/Biden were running for President?

---

Based on that number, the federal funds rate should be 5% based on the Taylor rule which is one of the tools they use for analysis.

We are below that at appx 4.25%.

So our State employees will continue working from home but using AI to do their jobs. Looks like their 20 hour workweek will drop to 10, or less. Wonderful

Logos Stick said:

---

Kansas Kid said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

4.2% UE is considered FULL employment. That and the fact that the LBR is going down tells me it's most likely boomers retiring.

---

I don't think so. A lot of companies aren't hiring right now due to uncertainty about tariffs and government policy in general. You don't want to bring on people only to have to let them go the next month because of a late night tweet.

---

The UE rate should be a a lot higher if that were the case. 4.2% is FULL employment. In the last 20 years we've been at or below that rate only 4 years.

---

I look at U6 which is a much better indicator because it includes those that want a job and have given up. That went from 7.7% to 7.9% this month and is essentially the highest it has been since Oct 2021. We are far from full employment based on U6 and it also shows in the dropping labor participation rate.

Rapier108 said:

---

Apollo79 said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Of course it is always "TDS".

Funny how some of you people can never even consider that Trump is wrong and someone else is right.

---

yes most intelligent economists believe he should cut rates, what other plausible reason is there for Powell not to? He did it to help Harris in the run for President what's the deal now?

Funny how some of you people can never consider people rather see the country fail then help Trump.

---

"Help Trump"

That is really what it is all about with you people. All about making Trump look good.

---

Trump could "help" himself if he did away with the moronic tariffs.

Apollo79 said:

---

samurai_science said:

---

Apollo79 said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Of course it is always "TDS".

Funny how some of you people can never even consider that Trump is wrong and someone else is right.

---

yes most intelligent economists believe he should cut rates, what other plausible reason is there for Powell not to? He did it to help Harris in the run for President what's the deal now?

Funny how some of you people can never consider people rather see the country fail then help Trump.

---

Inflation

---

1. Inflation is at the lowest levels it has been for some time

Quote:

---

• Overall Inflation:
  The annual inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has generally decreased compared to the previous year. In June 2025, it was at 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May, but still below the levels seen earlier in the year.
  
• Core Inflation:

---

2. Wasthere not inflation during the time cut rates when Harris/Biden were running for President?

---

If you want to return to increased inflation, you lower rates.

Kansas Kid said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

Kansas Kid said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

4.2% UE is considered FULL employment. That and the fact that the LBR is going down tells me it's most likely boomers retiring.

---

I don't think so. A lot of companies aren't hiring right now due to uncertainty about tariffs and government policy in general. You don't want to bring on people only to have to let them go the next month because of a late night tweet.

---

The UE rate should be a a lot higher if that were the case. 4.2% is FULL employment. In the last 20 years we've been at or below that rate only 4 years.

---

I look at U6 which is a much better indicator because it includes those that want a job and have given up. That went from 7.7% to 7.9% this month and is essentially the highest it has been since Oct 2021. We are far from full employment based on U6 and it also shows in the dropping labor participation rate.

---

The experts and decision makers don't use that as the primary measure for good reason. Part of the basis for that measure is baked into life and should not be considered. Humans will always exist that, for whatever reason, won't be employable. Based on your criteria, we've only been at full UE for a very few years over the last 30 years. Thus, where we are on U6 right now is the norm, not the exception.

The only way to fix the issues (at least to me) will require gutting spending (including entitlements and the military), lowering regulations, lowering taxes, and then losing an election because people wont like it because it will require some rough times.


Whatever happens, Trump and Vance will get the blame and then we will get a Democrat who will make things worse because they will increase Taxes, Regulations, and Spending.

I do know that the voters DONT care about any of these new reports, the 4 years of Biden prove this. They care about what is happening to them. How it FEELS in the daily lives is what actually matters. For instance, if they feel prices are high they will not be happy. No reports on MSM, Twitter will matter to the voters.

samurai_science said:

---

I do know that the voters DONT care about any of these new reports, the 4 years of Biden prove this. They care about what is happening to them. How it FEELS in the daily lives is what actually matters. For instance, if they feel prices are high they will not be happy. No reports on MSM, Twitter will matter to the voters.

---

This is the barometer. Media reports can't spin away pain if people are feeling it, nor can they diminish positive vibes if folks think things are good.

Going to be interesting to see how it balances out... is there enough real improvement in quality of life from the tariffs that it outweighs the inflationary impact?

If so, Trump will be a winner with his tariffs. If not, the worm will turn against him.

Smoke and mirrors. We have been at stagnation and erosion of our quality of life for the productive working class since 2023. These numbers are just for Wall Street and the billionaire class to pocket as much as they can before the music stops and there aren't anymore chairs for Main Street to sit in.

Rapier108 said:

---

Apollo79 said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Of course it is always "TDS".

Funny how some of you people can never even consider that Trump is wrong and someone else is right.

---

yes most intelligent economists believe he should cut rates, what other plausible reason is there for Powell not to? He did it to help Harris in the run for President what's the deal now?

Funny how some of you people can never consider people rather see the country fail then help Trump.

---

"Help Trump"

That is really what it is all about with you people. All about making Trump look good.

---

Helping Trump = helping the country. Purposefully hurting the country is what Powell is doing. And the reason is TDS. Hope that clears things up.

Science Denier said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Apollo79 said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Of course it is always "TDS".

Funny how some of you people can never even consider that Trump is wrong and someone else is right.

---

yes most intelligent economists believe he should cut rates, what other plausible reason is there for Powell not to? He did it to help Harris in the run for President what's the deal now?

Funny how some of you people can never consider people rather see the country fail then help Trump.

---

"Help Trump"

That is really what it is all about with you people. All about making Trump look good.

---

Helping Trump = helping the country. Purposefully hurting the country is what Powell is doing. And the reason is TDS. Hope that clears things up.

---

What should the rate be set to and why?

Logos Stick said:

---

He can only be fired for cause. He can't be fired because Trump has decided he wants a 1% rate, which is completely ******ed btw.

---

Fire him. Cause = hurting the country by implement different policies based solely on who is POTUS.

samurai_science said:

---

I do know that the voters DONT care about any of these new reports, the 4 years of Biden prove this. They care about what is happening to them. How it FEELS in the daily lives is what actually matters. For instance, if they feel prices are high they will not be happy. No reports on MSM, Twitter will matter to the voters.

---

Economic Definitions
Recession - your neighbor is out of work
Depression - you are out of work.

Inflation is the same. Most people think it is still a major problem despite what the data says. I know I still gulp when I see prices at the grocery store. Fortunately, I can still afford it but I don't see how the average hourly worker can handle it.

Science Denier said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

He can only be fired for cause. He can't be fired because Trump has decided he wants a 1% rate, which is completely ******ed btw.

---

Fire him. Cause = hurting the country by implement different policies based solely on who is POTUS.

---

Ok, what should the rate be set to and why?

I used the Taylor rule above, which is completely objective. We should be at 5% per that rule.

will25u said:

---

Unemployment fell from 4.2% to 4.1%

This was a very hot jobs report with yields soaring now.

While Trump will applaud the numbers, it gives Powell more of a reason to not cut rates.

This was the last jobs report before the July Fed meeting.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 3, 2025

---

Bull****

That number is still bull****

Its funny...

before we had these corrections and folks thought that jobs and the economy were doing great, it was LOWER THE RATE, the economy is humming!

Now that we've hit some speed bumps, its LOWER THE RATE the economy is on the brink!

Basically, it's whatever Trump wants with no thought whatsoever.

Kansas Kid said:

---

samurai_science said:

---

I do know that the voters DONT care about any of these new reports, the 4 years of Biden prove this. They care about what is happening to them. How it FEELS in the daily lives is what actually matters. For instance, if they feel prices are high they will not be happy. No reports on MSM, Twitter will matter to the voters.

---

Economic Definitions
Recession - your neighbor is out of work
Depression - you are out of work.

Inflation is the same. Most people think it is still a major problem despite what the data says. I know I still gulp when I see prices at the grocery store. Fortunately, I can still afford it but I don't see how the average hourly worker can handle it.

---

Yep

CPI is a cooked book set of "data".

I have seen a few items at HEB that have decreased in price but most are still rising. THAT is what the general populace sees and makes decisions on. Same as gas. It's lower than under Weekend at Bernie's, but still keeps fluctuating between 2.999 and around 2.499 here in SA. For no apparent reason.

Logos Stick said:

---

Science Denier said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

He can only be fired for cause. He can't be fired because Trump has decided he wants a 1% rate, which is completely ******ed btw.

---

Fire him. Cause = hurting the country by implement different policies based solely on who is POTUS.

---

Ok, what should the rate be set to and why?

I used the Taylor rule above, which is completely objective. We should be at 5% per that rule.

---

Sadly, his answer is going to be - "whatever Trump says they should be."

Don't be so mad, primo. It's gonna be OK.

On that note, Stuff isn't going to get cheaper. Heck now with the 35 percent tariff on Canada, which is where we get our timber from, no one will be able to afford a house, so they won't get built or be super expensive.


SO MUCH WINNING!

/yesitstds
/eyeroll

The differences in gas prices from station to station even within a relatively small market size are unusual and notable imo. I saw prices this week for regular unleaded this week ranging from 2.45 to 3.19. I don't remember seeing fluctuations from store to store that pronounced in the past and I do wonder what is driving it.

Whomever their supplier is.

Charpie said:

---

Whomever their supplier is.

---

This has been going on for a bit, and I even started a thread about it because it's so weird. No big fluctuation in oil price and BAM! back to $2.999 at HEB gas stations in the Nacogdoches/Oconnor or Thousand Oaks area of N. Mexico (San Antonio). Over a week or two....whittles its way down to $2.499 and then...BAM! $2.999.

This is why rates need to stay where they are for a while longer. Sure reducing the rates may juice GDP and it will definitely help the feds roll over the massive debt that is coming due this year. Those are good things but at the cost of additional inflation which is absolutely killing the pay-check-to-paycheck American. Interest rates are already historically on the low side. I'm with Trump on most things but a massive reduction in interest rates would be terrible for the average Joe. Now maybe Trump is more afraid of the debt bomb or maybe he's just throwing a tantrum because Powell won't capitulate. You never know with Trump.

Sure but that's always been the case so why do the fluctuations (both day to day at any given station and from station to station) seem so much more pronounced now . I'll admit it's an anecdotal observation .

halfastros81 said:

---

Sure but that's always been the case so why do the fluctuations (both day to day at any given station and from station to station) seem so much more pronounced now . I'll admit it's an anecdotal observation .

---

Observing anecdotes?

I prefer antivenoms.