June numbers adjusted down to 14,000.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/08/01/jobs-report-july-2025.html

LFPR is down to 62.2, downward trend for 3 consecutive months.

Unemployment ticks up.

Trump needs to focus on this. Our companies should create jobs in our country for our people. Not for foreigners in foreign (and our) lands.

I believe that is coming next. I hear rumblings.

Curse words.
https://x.com/ Geiger_Capital/status/1951266734171726291

I thought this was a typo…

In the last 4 months, native-born Americans have gained 1.8 MILLION jobs. Meanwhile, 1.5 Million foreign-born workers (legal and illegal) lost a job.

A sharp reversal of the last few years.

Wish they wouldn't use foreign vs. native born, but citizen vs non-citizen.

Technically, I'm foreign born but a US citizen.

The Kraken said:

---

June numbers adjusted down to 14,000.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/08/01/jobs-report-july-2025.html

---

Cumulative downward revisions for May and June were 258K.

June +147K -> +14K
May +134K -> +19K

Current breakeven number to maintain a steady employment rate is estimated at ~100K/month. We're now at 3 straight months below breakeven.

akm91 said:

---

Wish they wouldn't use foreign vs. native born, but citizen vs non-citizen.

Technically, I'm foreign born but a US citizen.

---

I agree. Only thing that matters is US citizen vs non US citizen.
However, there is another angle. Non US citizens living in the US (green card holders). For now, I would like them to also find jobs as they contribute and spend money in the US. When jobs to go foreign people, in other countries, they spend the money in their own countries. Lose. Lose. Lose for us.

With all the revisions down from last year, and these numbers it shows the job market is not in a good place.

That is one way way to get Powell to really look at the interest rates. The other being inflation.

4.2% UE is considered FULL employment. That and the fact that the LBR is going down tells me it's most likely boomers retiring.

Jobs is a big deal. I hope Trump gets to work on that, though tariffs are related to that.

Logos Stick said:

---

4.2% UE is considered FULL employment. That and the fact that the LBR is going down tells me it's most likely boomers retiring.

---

I don't think so. A lot of companies aren't hiring right now due to uncertainty about tariffs and government policy in general. You don't want to bring on people only to have to let them go the next month because of a late night tweet.

Kansas Kid said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

4.2% UE is considered FULL employment. That and the fact that the LBR is going down tells me it's most likely boomers retiring.

---

I don't think so. A lot of companies aren't hiring right now due to uncertainty about tariffs and government policy in general. You don't want to bring on people only to have to let them go the next month because of a late night tweet.

---

The UE rate should be a a lot higher if that were the case. 4.2% is FULL employment. In the last 20 years we've been at or below that rate only 4 years.

Logos Stick said:

---

Kansas Kid said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

4.2% UE is considered FULL employment. That and the fact that the LBR is going down tells me it's most likely boomers retiring.

---

I don't think so. A lot of companies aren't hiring right now due to uncertainty about tariffs and government policy in general. You don't want to bring on people only to have to let them go the next month because of a late night tweet.

---

The UE rate should be a a lot higher if that were the case. 4.2% is FULL employment. In the last 20 years we've been at or below that rate only 4 years.

---

The lack of hiring doesn't have an instantaneous impact on UE. UE tends to lag current employment trends

jt16 said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

Kansas Kid said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

4.2% UE is considered FULL employment. That and the fact that the LBR is going down tells me it's most likely boomers retiring.

---

I don't think so. A lot of companies aren't hiring right now due to uncertainty about tariffs and government policy in general. You don't want to bring on people only to have to let them go the next month because of a late night tweet.

---

The UE rate should be a a lot higher if that were the case. 4.2% is FULL employment. In the last 20 years we've been at or below that rate only 4 years.

---

The lack of hiring doesn't have an instantaneous impact on UE. UE tends to lag current employment trends

---

Incorrect. Those jobs numbers were revised down for the two months prior to July. The July UE rate would reflect that.

eta: also I disagree with your lag assertion. the UE rate is simply a real-time poll. If a person has no job and wants one, they are included. Lack of hiring would be reflected immediately in that rate.

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

infinity ag said:

---

Jobs is a big deal. I hope Trump gets to work on that, though tariffs are related to that.

---

Manufacturing sector has lost 37k jobs since the liberation day tariffs.

Kansas Kid said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

4.2% UE is considered FULL employment. That and the fact that the LBR is going down tells me it's most likely boomers retiring.

---

I don't think so. A lot of companies aren't hiring right now due to uncertainty about tariffs and government policy in general. You don't want to bring on people only to have to let them go the next month because of a late night tweet.

---

I've been out of work since March. Many others are out there looking as well. It's tough, and I think without a doubt the uncertainty is working against me.

Why are these figures always so wildly off?

Aust Ag said:

---

Kansas Kid said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

4.2% UE is considered FULL employment. That and the fact that the LBR is going down tells me it's most likely boomers retiring.

---

I don't think so. A lot of companies aren't hiring right now due to uncertainty about tariffs and government policy in general. You don't want to bring on people only to have to let them go the next month because of a late night tweet.

---

I've been out of work since March. Many others are out there looking as well. It's tough, and I think without a doubt the uncertainty is working against me.

---

Best of luck to you. I am employed but have been looking elsewhere for a while now and it is so tough. Keep your head up.

Aust Ag said:

---

Kansas Kid said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

4.2% UE is considered FULL employment. That and the fact that the LBR is going down tells me it's most likely boomers retiring.

---

I don't think so. A lot of companies aren't hiring right now due to uncertainty about tariffs and government policy in general. You don't want to bring on people only to have to let them go the next month because of a late night tweet.

---

I've been out of work since March. Many others are out there looking as well. It's tough, and I think without a doubt the uncertainty is working against me.

---

Sorry to hear that. I hope you find something soon.

pacecar02 said:

---

Why are these figures always so wildly off?

---

I was just looking at a tweet from an economist, and it said....

A few weeks ago I was talking to a human resources specialist about the labor market strength. I've been thinking about his comment to me ever since, when he said "I keep wondering when your data will start showing the weakness that we're seeing on the ground in the labor market."

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Do you agree with Trump that we need an immediate 3 point cut?

fullback44 said:

---

Tea Party said:

---

will25u said:

---

ShotOver said:

---

…..and…..the biggest increase?…..government jobs. At least that's what CNBC says…..

---

Fake news?

Breaking News
June Jobs 147,000
Private 74,000
Government 73,000 (state and local)
Highlighs
Construction 15,000
Transportation & Warehousing 7,500

Red flags
Slower private sector growth.
Labor force -130,000.

Solid report - initial reaction in bond yields is excessive.

— Charles V Payne (@cvpayne) July 3, 2025

---

1 government job created for each private job created.

That is unsustainable.

---

Yeah this bothers me- we need to be slashing our over reached government not growing it

---

Just to clarify, not all are bad. The massive hiring of border control agents is a good add.

Quote:

---

US hiring slowest since pandemic
By Cate Chapman, Editor at LinkedIn News


Employers have pulled back on hiring, Labor Department data showed Friday, with nonfarm payrolls undershooting expectations for July and totals revised sharply lower in prior months. New hires rose by 73,000 jobs last month, while recalculations brought average hiring over the last three months to just 35,000, the slowest pace since the onset of the pandemic, according to Bloomberg. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, ticked up to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June. The report raises the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will soon resume cutting interest rates.

---

But I am sure we are hiring at a fast clip overseas. After all, a company has the right to hire from wherever they want for whatever price they want.

will25u said:

---

With all the revisions down from last year, and these numbers it shows the job market is not in a good place.

That is one way way to get Powell to really look at the interest rates. The other being inflation.

---

Inflation is still ticking up though. Energy prices helped keep core inflation down more than it should have been, but now that we're going to export more NG, I expect a raise in our energy prices as we now have to compete globally for it.

Aggie1205 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Do you agree with Trump that we need an immediate 3 point cut?

---

Trump's tariff policy is partly implemented to stimulate growth here. However, that can't happen with higher interest rates. He's said there have been pledges for trillions in new investment in the US, but that won't come close to happening if interest rates are not cut.

Any short term inflation is a minor tick on the much bigger dog. Long term success is more businesses in the US. Period. WGAF if we endure a few months of 4% inflation, which probably won't happen anyway. I know there are several major projects just waiting to kick off because rate cuts have been talked about for a while now.

Plus, our debt obligations are very dependent on interest rates. With tariffs, we finally hit a time where our expenditures WERE LESS THAN our revenue. Drop interest payments, and that will start happening more often.

Powell cut rates for libs with essentially the same inflation numbers as we have now. Powell knows that in interest rate cut will spur alot of new investment in America, and he can't have that.

Trump should fire his ass and "ask forgiveness" later. Get interest rates SLASHED, get these projects financed and kicked off, and then maybe later raise rates back up if inflation does in fact become an issue. This "inflation" obsession is loser mentality and it seems only to apply when a (D) is not in office.

Energy prices should also go up because India looks like they will stop buying Russian oil because of Trump's threat.

pacecar02 said:

---

Why are these figures always so wildly off?

---

Logos Stick said:

---

Energy prices should also go up because India looks like they will stop buying Russian oil because of Trump's threat.

---

They lie a lot

He can only be fired for cause. He can't be fired because Trump has decided he wants a 1% rate, which is completely ******ed btw.

Rapier108 said:

---

Ellis Wyatt said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

average monthly gain 12 months previous = 146k

UE at 4.1%, down from 4.2%

eta: if you were looking for a Fed rate cut this month, it's out the window imo

---

Powell was never going to cut rates this month. He is consumed with TDS, regardless of external factors.

---

Of course it is always "TDS".

Funny how some of you people can never even consider that Trump is wrong and someone else is right.

---

yes most intelligent economists believe he should cut rates, what other plausible reason is there for Powell not to? He did it to help Harris in the run for President what's the deal now?

Funny how some of you people can never consider people rather see the country fail then help Trump.

well, the market doesn't like it...


down over 1.5%

infinity ag said:

---

Why can't AI replace the IRS?

---

It would only approve logical deductions.