tysker said:

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Trump wants low rates so he can justify refinancing the current short-term debt obligations and increase spending. It's a Ponzi scheme, and our kids and grand kids will be ones holding the bag

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Yep Trump is no fiscal conservative. The deficit is about to balloon as fedgov pays down old debt with more expensive new debt. I think that's what Trump is trying to avoid while also doing nothing to reduce government spending. It's getting harder to kick the can down the road.

He could say the rate of inflation increases is lower than the past several years . That may be an accurate statement …. But prices are low …. Ridiculous statement .

jamey said:

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tysker said:

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Trump wants low rates so he can justify refinancing the current short-term debt obligations and increase spending. It's a Ponzi scheme, and our kids and grand kids will be ones holding the bag

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Say only 50% of the US is smart enough to realize this


We can vote against it and win enough seats to stop Thelma(D) and Louise(R) before they run off the cliff with our kids in the backseat

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50% is not enough. It will need to be at least 80% before Congress will have any sort of willpower and political capital to change its ways.

It's much more politically viable to spend other people's money (i.e., the wealth and labor of future generations) and blame other constituencies for the failures than it is to make tough spending choices and take responsibility for those outcomes.

HumpitPuryear said:

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tysker said:

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Trump wants low rates so he can justify refinancing the current short-term debt obligations and increase spending. It's a Ponzi scheme, and our kids and grand kids will be ones holding the bag

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Yep Trump is no fiscal conservative. The deficit is about to balloon as fedgov pays down old debt with more expensive new debt. I think that's what Trump is trying to avoid while also doing nothing to reduce government spending. It's getting harder to kick the can down the road.

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Trump is a coward, and the GOP should be ashamed of itself.
They've controlled Congress and the presidency twice in the last decade, and all they can do is increase spending. There is no plan to control deficits or work on entitlement reform.

DOGEs failure was probably the canary in the coalmine.

You keep mentioning US companies in reference to peoples 401ks. You do realize you can put money in other investments than US companies, right? So if you want to bet on tariffs being a disaster than get you some Chinese stock and enjoy.

If you can bet for something, you can bet against it.

flown-the-coop said:

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You keep mentioning US companies in reference to peoples 401ks. You do realize you can put money in other investments than US companies, right? So if you want to bet on tariffs being a disaster than get you some Chinese stock and enjoy.

If you can bet for something, you can bet against it.

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Through which vehicle can a person invest heavily in China via a 401(k)? Even when a 401(k) sponsor offers an international investment fund, it will likely be global and comprised of higher-quality, blue-chip companies that are often also listed in the US. You may also get some emerging market funds as an option. I doubt there's a 401(k) that offers investors the ability to buy a China-specific investment. The primary rationale is that 401ks are not meant for speculative investments and need to meet ERISA requirements.

tysker said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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You keep mentioning US companies in reference to peoples 401ks. You do realize you can put money in other investments than US companies, right? So if you want to bet on tariffs being a disaster than get you some Chinese stock and enjoy.

If you can bet for something, you can bet against it.

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Through which vehicle can a person invest heavily in China via a 401(k)? Even when a 401(k) sponsor offers an international investment fund, it will likely be global and comprised of higher-quality, blue-chip companies that are often also listed in the US. You may also get some emerging market funds as an option. I doubt there's a 401(k) that offers investors the ability to buy a China-specific investment. The primary rationale is that 401ks are not meant for speculative investments and need to meet ERISA requirements.

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Your company decides on which offerings are available.

China is speculative? Hell, there are many folks including many around here that things China is the opposite of speculative.

Point being is a person can manage their 401k exposure to US companies most impacted by tariffs. It's a bad assumption that tariffs are going to crush 401k performance.

flown-the-coop said:

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It's a bad assumption that tariffs are going to crush 401k performance.

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About the only thing driving 401k performance at this point is employment and whether or not passive flows are going in (healthy employment) or coming out (retirement withdraws, unhealthy employment).

The vast majority of 401k investments are in passive vehicles that are completely agnostic to anything other than market weight of potential investments and capital requirements (in or out) of the fund itself.

Valentin Haddad highlighted in a study (at the time) that passive investing had made the market 11% more inelastic. It's been years since the study was done and passive is more pervasive in the market. There is a very high likelihood that price inelasticity has increased closer to 25% - 30%. The market signals that would influence the prices of stocks are getting crowded out by passive 401k contributions that mindlessly invest in the largest companies.

flown-the-coop said:

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tysker said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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You keep mentioning US companies in reference to peoples 401ks. You do realize you can put money in other investments than US companies, right? So if you want to bet on tariffs being a disaster than get you some Chinese stock and enjoy.

If you can bet for something, you can bet against it.

---

Through which vehicle can a person invest heavily in China via a 401(k)? Even when a 401(k) sponsor offers an international investment fund, it will likely be global and comprised of higher-quality, blue-chip companies that are often also listed in the US. You may also get some emerging market funds as an option. I doubt there's a 401(k) that offers investors the ability to buy a China-specific investment. The primary rationale is that 401ks are not meant for speculative investments and need to meet ERISA requirements.

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Your company decides on which offerings are available.

China is speculative? Hell, there are many folks including many around here that things China is the opposite of speculative.

Point being is a person can manage their 401k exposure to US companies most impacted by tariffs. It's a bad assumption that tariffs are going to crush 401k performance.

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What company/sponsor has a China-specific offering available? Single-stock name 401(k) opportunities are rare for US-based stocks, let alone those based in China.

Who here believes investment in China is not speculative?

401(k) generally requires investing in diversified investment vehicles like mutual funds and ETFs. Carving out exposure from tariffs is a task outside of the skill set of most investors, including many who work on Wall Street.

Sims said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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It's a bad assumption that tariffs are going to crush 401k performance.

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About the only thing driving 401k performance at this point is employment and whether or not passive flows are going in (healthy employment) or coming out (retirement withdraws, unhealthy employment).

The vast majority of 401k investments are in passive vehicles that are completely agnostic to anything other than market weight of potential investments and capital requirements (in or out) of the fund itself.

Valentin Haddad highlighted in a study (at the time) that passive investing had made the market 11% more inelastic. It's been years since the study was done and passive is more pervasive in the market. There is a very high likelihood that price inelasticity has increased closer to 25% - 30%. The market signals that would influence the prices of stocks are getting crowded out by passive 401k contributions that mindlessly invest in the largest companies.

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Probably worthy of a whole separate discussion but those are excellent points. I was a passive investor up until a point that net worth and varying business interests warranted a more personal attention that I could not expend on my own. But if you think about all the multi-hundred thousand dollar 401ks out there it gets big real quick.

And consider how many folks leave 401ks "behind" at a company and never consider if for 5, 10, 20 years the zombie retirement assets ultimately managed by several large, incestuous institutions all making incredibly fees and maybe we start to see why this concept of deep state exists in an economic real, not just political.

tysker said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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tysker said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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You keep mentioning US companies in reference to peoples 401ks. You do realize you can put money in other investments than US companies, right? So if you want to bet on tariffs being a disaster than get you some Chinese stock and enjoy.

If you can bet for something, you can bet against it.

---

Through which vehicle can a person invest heavily in China via a 401(k)? Even when a 401(k) sponsor offers an international investment fund, it will likely be global and comprised of higher-quality, blue-chip companies that are often also listed in the US. You may also get some emerging market funds as an option. I doubt there's a 401(k) that offers investors the ability to buy a China-specific investment. The primary rationale is that 401ks are not meant for speculative investments and need to meet ERISA requirements.

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Your company decides on which offerings are available.

China is speculative? Hell, there are many folks including many around here that things China is the opposite of speculative.

Point being is a person can manage their 401k exposure to US companies most impacted by tariffs. It's a bad assumption that tariffs are going to crush 401k performance.

---

What company/sponsor has a China-specific offering available? Single-stock name 401(k) opportunities are rare for US-based stocks, let alone those based in China.

Who here believes investment in China is not speculative?

401(k) generally requires investing in diversified investment vehicles like mutual funds and ETFs. Carving out exposure from tariffs is a task outside of the skill set of most investors, including many who work on Wall Street.

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You are chasing an acorn around and ignoring the broader concept, even though I clearly indicated it's about a person managing their individual interests and exposure.

And most certainly an investor could pick a winner or losing side. If you think tariffs are bad for US companies, bet on the international markets. If you think it's a good idea, bet on the US. Because if you care enough about whether tariffs are going to crush your 401k, then maybe you should be very educated and diligent on which funds provide the best risk mgmt / opportunity for you.

BTW, seems like the US govt under BIden, probably under Trump too, in China.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/12/us-pension-funds-heavily-invested-in-china-despite-crackdown.html

And Fidelity has some China oriented funds. You can check with your HR department.

https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/china-region

As you have discovered its not easy for the public to disentangle their interests and investments from the consequences of tariff policy.

Again you have exposed how the American people will bear the cost of tariffs.

tysker said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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You keep mentioning US companies in reference to peoples 401ks. You do realize you can put money in other investments than US companies, right? So if you want to bet on tariffs being a disaster than get you some Chinese stock and enjoy.

If you can bet for something, you can bet against it.

---

Through which vehicle can a person invest heavily in China via a 401(k)? Even when a 401(k) sponsor offers an international investment fund, it will likely be global and comprised of higher-quality, blue-chip companies that are often also listed in the US. You may also get some emerging market funds as an option. I doubt there's a 401(k) that offers investors the ability to buy a China-specific investment. The primary rationale is that 401ks are not meant for speculative investments and need to meet ERISA requirements.

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Yes, my 401K has very limited options, and little diversity other than bonds. It doesn't even have emerging markets or commodities anymore.

When you say very little diversity does that mean not very many different fund options or no funds that are well diversified across different markets , or both?

Hassett and Bessent just said today the "formal process" for Jay Pows replacement has begun!

great news.

even if he is still technically around until next spring, the markets will be listening to the nominee

With it now 5 months in a row with inflation beating expectations I wonder that if interest rates were down and that meant costs were down if we might see some technical deflation.

I know the Fed wants a 2% YoY inflation rate and I'm certain a lot desperately want to make sure Trump doesn't actually get prices lower. I suspect that is also driving Powell to hold off as long as he possibly can.

halfastros81 said:

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When you say very little diversity does that mean not very many different fund options or no funds that are well diversified across different markets , or both?

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Small caps, large caps, global and international along with bonds. Thats it. We use to have real estate, commodities, and emerging markets and possibly other stuff I've forgotten about

aezmvp said:

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With it now 5 months in a row with inflation beating expectations I wonder that if interest rates were down and that meant costs were down if we might see some technical deflation.

I know the Fed wants a 2% YoY inflation rate and I'm certain a lot desperately want to make sure Trump doesn't actually get prices lower. I suspect that is also driving Powell to hold off as long as he possibly can.

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Expectations use to mean falling CPI, now it's beating rising expectations

The trend is up and closer to 3% than 2%

Inflation is theft.

It benefits those who borrow money and is a great expense for those who save money.

halfastros81 said:

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When you say very little diversity does that mean not very many different fund options or no funds that are well diversified across different markets , or both?

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I think the ultimate point was that there was no China-specific investment offered within the 401k to act as a hedge against the potential downside of tariffs (which makes sense from an ERISA perspective).

If you want to hedge tariff risk for investors via China, one would need to do it through a brokerage account by buying US-listed and ADRs of China-based companies (BABA, BIDU, LKNCY, etc).

tysker said:

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As you have discovered its not easy for the public to disentangle their interests and investments from the consequences of tariff policy.

Again you have exposed how the American people will bear the cost of tariffs.

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I cannot fix the average American being fiscally ******ed. Nor can I fix them being legally and politically ******ed. Lord knows I try, almost everyday around here. Much of it simply doesn't take. Gnomsayin?!

tysker said:

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HumpitPuryear said:

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tysker said:

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Trump wants low rates so he can justify refinancing the current short-term debt obligations and increase spending. It's a Ponzi scheme, and our kids and grand kids will be ones holding the bag

---

Yep Trump is no fiscal conservative. The deficit is about to balloon as fedgov pays down old debt with more expensive new debt. I think that's what Trump is trying to avoid while also doing nothing to reduce government spending. It's getting harder to kick the can down the road.

---

Trump is a coward, and the GOP should be ashamed of itself.
They've controlled Congress and the presidency twice in the last decade, and all they can do is increase spending. There is no plan to control deficits or work on entitlement reform.

DOGEs failure was probably the canary in the coalmine.

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The gop likes to be the minority that complains, its how they make money. Put them in charge and they do nothing

eric76 said:

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Inflation is theft.

It benefits those who borrow money and is a great expense for those who save money.

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So borrow more and save less?

If you cannot stomach using leverage as a means to success, then just stick to money market and enjoy the interest, however it comes.

Figure out how to make the current situation work to your advantage. Don't hate the player, hate the game.

tysker said:

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halfastros81 said:

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When you say very little diversity does that mean not very many different fund options or no funds that are well diversified across different markets , or both?

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I think the ultimate point was that there was no China-specific investment offered within the 401k to act as a hedge against the potential downside of tariffs (which makes sense from an ERISA perspective).

If you want to hedge tariff risk for investors via China, one would need to do it through a brokerage account by buying US-listed and ADRs of China-based companies (BABA, BIDU, LKNCY, etc).

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So federal pensions can hold Chinese funds but 401ks are prevented from same due to ERISA?

There is proposed legislation to prohibit it (PARSA per the Google) but ERISA is pretty broad. Now, whomever is the fiduciary for the company 401k needs to choose wisely, but an argument can be made, is made, that overly limiting options in a 401k is just as bad as being too "risky" in funds offered.

I don't know your age and time horizon but imo the tariffs are a negotiating tool and will just be used to get more favorable deals and the impact of the tariffs will be temporary . Just spread your $ out over some allocation of the options that you have available and makes sense to you . I'm an advocate that time in market is much more important over the long haul than what you are invested in or perhaps even where (US vs international markets) . I may not be in the majority opinion here but I personally wouldn't bet against the US Stock market long term but hedge your bets based on your views .

Over a 10-30 yr period these tariffs won't even be remembered by investors ….maybe a footnote at best imo.

flown-the-coop said:

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eric76 said:

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Inflation is theft.

It benefits those who borrow money and is a great expense for those who save money.

---

So borrow more and save less?

If you cannot stomach using leverage as a means to success, then just stick to money market and enjoy the interest, however it comes.

Figure out how to make the current situation work to your advantage. Don't hate the player, hate the game.

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You need capital to be able to create leverage. Your upper middle class Americans making 150-200k cant pull that off lol

I could have up to 50% of my 401k in almost any public security including Chinese ADRs and indexes (I choose not to but that is because I don't like the risk/reward). There are a few that can't be held due to UBTI tax issues. Many companies are reluctant to offer more than plain vanilla options due to concerns about lawsuits if Jimmy loses it all betting on highly speculative investments.

Jerome Powell is going to be fired. Firing is imminent.

— Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (@RepLuna) July 16, 2025

Update!

I’m 99% sure firing is imminent. https://t.co/cyaXaydiSZ

— Anna Paulina Luna (@realannapaulina) July 16, 2025

Ellis Wyatt said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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janet yellen should go to jail for her ineptitude

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It was politics, not ineptitude. She was serving the democrat party, not America.

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She should have retired after playing the role of Grandpa Munster in the 60's.

Inflation goal is <2%. The CPI for June was just released today at 2.7% and rising. The rates shouldn't be cut all until it's back on the way to <2%.

Im Gipper said:

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Update!

I’m 99% sure firing is imminent. https://t.co/cyaXaydiSZ

— Anna Paulina Luna (@realannapaulina) July 16, 2025

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So there's 1 vote to lower rates


What about all the others

jamey said:

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Im Gipper said:

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Update!

I’m 99% sure firing is imminent. https://t.co/cyaXaydiSZ

— Anna Paulina Luna (@realannapaulina) July 16, 2025

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So there's 1 vote to lower rates


What about all the others

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Waller, who is a strong replacement candidate has already signaled support for cuts at the July meeting. There are others in favor based on the dot plots.

More than anything, I think the FOMC will go the way of the chair, whoever that is. They are terrified of not voting up or down as a bloc. I think they think it gives them bolstered credibility if they pretend they all agree.

A lot of the "self proclaimed experts on tariffs" here at F16 -

who warned of massive economic harm to the USA may want to rethink...

PPI in June came in lower than all 50 forecasters in Bloomberg’s survey predicted.

— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) July 16, 2025

Trump haters are saying to just give it two more weeks and we will see the devastating impact of TACO tariffs will cause economic calamity the likes of which we have never seen.