It's obvious at this point Trump is playing for midterm elections. IRGC knows as much that's why their mouths are writing checks they know can't be cashed.

GAC06 said:

---

"I had a very good call with Hezbollah and they agreed all shooting will stop" -President Trump

Do you think he's making that up?

---

Yes.

txaggie_08 said:

---

Ok, I'll just ignore Trump then, since he's the source of the information.

---

You should realize both sides are playing the propaganda game.

Think about that concept of he had a call with Hizballah. With who exactly and how to they distinguish who speaks for the "people of hizballah". Is there a published org chart I can see? Has it been updated for whatever Israel has done in the last 3 hours?

They also operate out of a country called Lebanon, which they are not the leaders of.

So yes when you consider reality you have to look at Trumps comments as posturing. Not taking everything he says as "negotiating with terrorists".

flown-the-coop said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

"I had a very good call with Hezbollah and they agreed all shooting will stop" -President Trump

Do you think he's making that up?

---

Yes.

---

I think it referred to Trumpian Exaggeration / Hyperbole

More like 60 days
Refined product shortages are likely about to get very real
Which is why the Exxon CEO made a big press release talking about it

Shore-based Noor long-range antiship cruise missile (reverse-engineered Chinese C-802) pic.twitter.com/stXZAga7o1

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 1, 2026

No, Trump said it. And maybe a call happened. But I don't think Trump is basing his decisions on what some jihad jabroni from hamahisballahouthi says or agrees to.

Thats my read on his "update".

As much as folks like to claim Trump is a sucker and an idiot, history tells you that just isn't so.

The only person who has suckered Trump in the last 6 months is Bibi

Trump is currently managing a horrible situation well enough I just don't think he has as much time as he appears to think he has

Sq 17 said:

---

The only person who has suckered Trump in the last 6 months is Bibi

Trump is currently managing a horrible situation well enough I just don't think he has as much time as he appears to think he has

---

He has been clear that the midterms do not matter to him in this regards, at least not as much as getting it right.

He would be remembered longer for resolving this than he would helping to win the midterms. But I think he thinks he can do both.

But if he had to choose, then it's doing the right thing in Iran.

Good news...

BREAKING: President Trump says he thinks he will have a deal with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz "over the next week," per ABC News.

Trump says there are still "a few more points" to get to for the deal.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 1, 2026

So many conflicting reports on the status of the war and the ceasefire negotiations. The fog of war.

Logos Stick said:

---

Good news...

BREAKING: President Trump says he thinks he will have a deal with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz "over the next week," per ABC News.

Trump says there are still "a few more points" to get to for the deal.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 1, 2026

---

This is what a lot of us keep talking about. Trump may think this, but he should keep it to himself and give a non-direct answer to the press like "we are going through the process".

Because now all Iran has to do, like they've done a million times already, is say that what Trump is saying is the opposite of what is actually happening. This will make Trump say "Well we'll just have to bomb them then!" And the whole week cycle starts over again.

nbbob said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

Good news...

BREAKING: President Trump says he thinks he will have a deal with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz "over the next week," per ABC News.

Trump says there are still "a few more points" to get to for the deal.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 1, 2026

---

I think we've been hearing for weeks now that a deal is close. Hasn't happened yet.

---

Ground hog day

nbbob said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

Good news...

BREAKING: President Trump says he thinks he will have a deal with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz "over the next week," per ABC News.

Trump says there are still "a few more points" to get to for the deal.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 1, 2026

---

I think we've been hearing for weeks now that a deal is close. Hasn't happened yet.

---

Yeah, I was being facetious. Every other hour we hear deal, then no deal, then deal.

rgag12 said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

Good news...

BREAKING: President Trump says he thinks he will have a deal with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz "over the next week," per ABC News.

Trump says there are still "a few more points" to get to for the deal.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 1, 2026

---

This is what a lot of us keep talking about. Trump may think this, but he should keep it to himself and give a non-direct answer to the press like "we are going through the process".

Because now all Iran has to do, like they've done a million times already, is say that what Trump is saying is the opposite of what is actually happening. This will make Trump say "Well we'll just have to bomb them then!" And the whole week cycle starts over again.

---

I completely agree. Stop tweeting.

nbbob said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

Good news...

BREAKING: President Trump says he thinks he will have a deal with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz "over the next week," per ABC News.

Trump says there are still "a few more points" to get to for the deal.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 1, 2026

---

I think we've been hearing for weeks now that a deal is close. Hasn't happened yet.

---

I think Trump is being truthful about the negotiations but still in a difficult position from a media and timing standpoint and is doing his best to manage the markets. He keeps talking them back down even though it is not entirely clear to everyone what is really going on. He is trying the thread the proverbial needle.

GAC06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

"I had a very good call with Hezbollah and they agreed all shooting will stop" -President Trump

Do you think he's making that up?

---

Yes.

---

So we can't trust "sources", we have to hear it right from Trump himself. Unless we don't like what he said then he's lying. Got it.

---

If you cannot understand the difference between the two then I cannot help you. It's pretty clear it's not about who said something I like or preferred. It's about who is saying what to get what, your "truth" is incredibly irrelevant.

[Do not post X shots that bypass obscenity filters -- Staff]

Yea I'll call BS on that tweet.

The reason it seems like Trump keeps saying the same thing is because he is. This is because he talks to the press a bajillion times a week. If this was Biden or Obama, we would have heard 2 updates at this point and be clueless what's going on. Strictly hearing the garbage from Iran.

flown-the-coop said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

"I had a very good call with Hezbollah and they agreed all shooting will stop" -President Trump

Do you think he's making that up?

---

Yes.

---

So we can't trust "sources", we have to hear it right from Trump himself. Unless we don't like what he said then he's lying. Got it.

---

If you cannot understand the difference between the two then I cannot help you. It's pretty clear it's not about who said something I like or preferred. It's about who is saying what to get what, your "truth" is incredibly irrelevant.

---

Well I couldn't see Trump's body language and interpret it like you since it was a tweet, but I'd love to know how you discern when he's lying about negotiating with terrorists. After all, he's been negotiating with Iran for a couple months.

IMO, I think Trump is purposely stalling so that we get the accurate location intel on the remaining Iranian leaders so that we can eliminate them once and for all.

NC2001 said:

---

IMO, I think Trump is purposely stalling so that we get the accurate location intel on the remaining Iranian leaders so that we can eliminate them once and for all.

---

One can only hope.

NC2001 said:

---

IMO, I think Trump is purposely stalling so that we get the accurate location intel on the remaining Iranian leaders so that we can eliminate them once and for all.

---

Let it be.

Logos Stick said:

---

rgag12 said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

Good news...

BREAKING: President Trump says he thinks he will have a deal with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz "over the next week," per ABC News.

Trump says there are still "a few more points" to get to for the deal.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 1, 2026

---

This is what a lot of us keep talking about. Trump may think this, but he should keep it to himself and give a non-direct answer to the press like "we are going through the process".

Because now all Iran has to do, like they've done a million times already, is say that what Trump is saying is the opposite of what is actually happening. This will make Trump say "Well we'll just have to bomb them then!" And the whole week cycle starts over again.

---

I completely agree. Stop tweeting.

---

This morning he said we are talking too much and should be quiet.

This afternoon he ignores his own advice and says this.

Pretty ridiculous at this point but I realize he's trying to manage the market on a daily basis to offset Iranian propaganda. Problem is that it's just a death spiral of comms by participating in it.

Iran Propaganda is irrelevant
The SoH is closed which is very relevant

Sq 17 said:

---

Iran Propaganda is irrelevant
The SoH is closed which is very relevant

---

It's not irrelevant to the markets.

Ag87H2O said:

---

nbbob said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

Good news...

BREAKING: President Trump says he thinks he will have a deal with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz "over the next week," per ABC News.

Trump says there are still "a few more points" to get to for the deal.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 1, 2026

---

I think we've been hearing for weeks now that a deal is close. Hasn't happened yet.

---

I think Trump is being truthful about the negotiations but still in a difficult position from a media and timing standpoint and is doing his best to manage the markets. He keeps talking them back down even though it is not entirely clear to everyone what is really going on. He is trying the thread the proverbial needle.

---

I think he's definitely saying things to help the markets. Honestly I'm kind of surprised the markets keep buying it.

To me, this goes back to strategy. I think we assumed the massive onslaught would both encourage the Iranian people to uprise and would convince the IRGC it couldn't win so they'd abandon the war. Neither happened so we are sitting on these ceasefires which actually aren't ceasefires. I also don't think we anticipated the SoH becoming the issue it has become since it doesn't appear we strategized to stop or prevent this scenario.

MSC Containership Damaged in Apparent Attack Off Iraq

vessels still being attacked

God morning folks...

U.S.–IRAN PEACE HOPES COLLAPSE

Market expectations for a U.S.-Iran deal by end-June have plunged from over 75% to just 27%. Chance of Strait of Hormuz reopening is now only 22%.

Kalshi traders give just 52% probability of normal shipping traffic before October 2026.
Stalled… pic.twitter.com/7qP1fIHawy

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 2, 2026