nbbob said:

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Ag87H2O said:

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nbbob said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Good news...

BREAKING: President Trump says he thinks he will have a deal with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz "over the next week," per ABC News.

Trump says there are still "a few more points" to get to for the deal.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 1, 2026

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I think we've been hearing for weeks now that a deal is close. Hasn't happened yet.

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I think Trump is being truthful about the negotiations but still in a difficult position from a media and timing standpoint and is doing his best to manage the markets. He keeps talking them back down even though it is not entirely clear to everyone what is really going on. He is trying the thread the proverbial needle.

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I think he's definitely saying things to help the markets. Honestly I'm kind of surprised the markets keep buying it.

To me, this goes back to strategy. I think we assumed the massive onslaught would both encourage the Iranian people to uprise and would convince the IRGC it couldn't win so they'd abandon the war. Neither happened so we are sitting on these ceasefires which actually aren't ceasefires. I also don't think we anticipated the SoH becoming the issue it has become since it doesn't appear we strategized to stop or prevent this scenario.

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He absolutely is trying to help the markets; that's pretty obvious.

Regarding strategy though, remember that we told the Iranian people not to rise up until we were finished. Thats another fact that has been lost in this whole thing. So this assumption of a revolt that never happened is potentially a wrong one, frankly, in the face of strategic mixed messaging and misaligned timing.

So, they either missed the window on that, and/or the thousands that did rise up and got killed did so before we thought the regime was ready to be toppled. The ones that did rise up already and prematurely in our estimate(?) would have been the bravest of the lot and now most of them are dead.

On top of this, we dumped a lot of guns to the Kurds who we thought would open a front against the IRGC and the Kurds simply took our guns and walked away...this according to Trump himself.

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On top of this, we dumped a lot of guns to the Kurds who we thought would open a front against the IRGC and the Kurds simply took our guns and walked away...this according to Trump himself.

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I've always wondered why the the entire Middle East hates the Kurds. This certainly provides some insight on why that might be.

Or the Kurds decided they'd screw the US for a change. Can't expect them to remain loyal when we're constantly leaving them high and dry.

The concept of wagering on the outcome via kalshi when there are a couple other well established markets already making bets is bizarre to me.

Oil roughly flat this morning at $93, same with the stock markets. Those are much broader bases of wagering on the outcome vs Kalshi IMO.

You have to factor in the internet blackout that clamped down at the start and only has returned in a very limited fashion and subject to harsh, brutal censorship. Interesting that it was the Iranian president that pushed back against / overruled the military leaders on restoring the access.

One of the few public instances indicating differences of opinions between the monster heads of the Islamic regime.

Also coming out this morning are the plans for the 3-day funeral for the recently retired ayatollah planned for June 16th/17th. The 24-hour long funeral "procession" is expected to draw out 15 to 20 million "mourners" into the streets. That could get really interesting.

Combined with the reports "from people familiar" that the call between Bibi and Trump was intense and filled with some f-bombs from Trump to Bibi and it sets up for some interesting days ahead.

For those interested, Rubio is currently on the Capitol Hill testifying to congress with an update on Iran.

[Take the obvious political posts to a different thread -- Staff]

you left out that the Kurds wanted to attack

and our best Islamist Dictator Recep Ergogan told the USA never to allow that.

so we didn't.

Bad luck, or bad piloting?

According to Sean D. Naylor with The High Side, the pilot of the U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle shot down by a surface-to-air missile on April 3 over Iran, was also the pilot of one of the three F-15Es downed by a Kuwaiti F/A-18 Hornet in a friendly fire incident in early… pic.twitter.com/axW0ZtFxmJ

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 2, 2026

Statistics alone provide you the likely answer.

My father was a fighter pilot, so I will ask his opinion...

USCENTCOM says US forces disabled Botswana-flagged oil tanker M/T Lexie attempting to sail toward Kharg Island in Iran

Jock 07 said:

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USCENTCOM says US forces disabled Botswana-flagged oil tanker M/T Lexie attempting to sail toward Kharg Island in Iran

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The fact that they keep trying begs the question - are some getting through and thus trying is worth the chance? Or are they just that stupid?

The F-15's shot down in Kuwait weren't at fault. They were in supposedly safe airspace and were attacked by an allied fighter.

Several explosions reported during air raid siren activation in Kuwait

NEW: Kuwait is currently under a missile and drone attack from Iran.

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 2, 2026

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-news-agency-reports-explosions-near-iranian-island-in-strait-of-hormuz/
Explosions near Island in Hormuz

Sounds like explosions were before the attack on Kuwait

Second round of Iranian ballistic missiles coming down on Kuwait at the moment, as Iran carries out its largest attack on a Gulf country in nearly a month.

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 2, 2026

Are these only targeting our bases or general Kuwait? It seems like previous recent attacks were only targeting Americans.

With multiple rounds of incoming it is usually the whole country. Time to start up the engines

Sounds like Bahrain is up now for attacks.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/bahrain-calls-on-residents-to-seek-shelter-as-warning-siren-sounds/

Pretty much. I fault them pretty much zero for the Kuwait shootdown. I'm a little confused why a strike eagle would be down in manpad range but a super hornet was too a week or so before but just got lucky.

Can we stop now with the "negotiations"???

These people WANT TO DIE. Their goal is TO END THE WORLD.

Negotiating will do nothing. Destroying their entire civilization will.

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Destroying their entire civilization will.

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That's quite an assumption. We aren't going to even attempt to "end their civilization" though so we won't have to find out

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran says new attacks targeting US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain have begun.

— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) June 2, 2026

Sounds like they're targeting our bases.

Per Iran….

[Keep trolling others and your timeouts will increase in length -- Staff]

Quit messing around Trump. You can't talk to these people. Blow them away.

So it seems like there's 3 options:

1. Accept a deal with whatever terms Iran is offering (and the caveat that they can't be trusted)
2. Bomb the **** out of them
3. Wait them out with the strait closed and increased pressure (oil storage, revenue loss, etc.)

It really feels like Trump is doing #3 but perhaps trying to misdirect with all this "Iran wants a deal" "it's so close" etc. to buy time for internal pressure to bring down the leadership. This theory is coupled with the resignation of the president over the last couple of days.

But honestly I have no idea...

I'm fine with 3, though it likely has political ramifications for mid terms if it continues for too long. I don't like Trump continually announcing we are close and then nothing happens. No one believes him at this point

Islamic Republic fired at least three ballistic missiles into Kuwait

Israel releasing new warnings

explosions in Shiraz Iran right now

MaxPower said:

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I'm fine with 3, though it likely has political ramifications for mid terms if it continues for too long. I don't like Trump continually announcing we are close and then nothing happens. No one believes him at this point

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I think the most pertinent question is whether he himself believes it.