Well hello there

Why the "oh Jeff"?

Ag87H2O said:

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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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It's hard to adequately summarize how destructive NOAA's 2026 proposed budget released on Monday is for hurricane forecasting, but I crammed all I could into today's newsletter. I encourage everyone with interests along the coast to read it carefully.https://t.co/oBwl2pjeLF pic.twitter.com/EBsXtwUVjr

— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) July 1, 2025

Quote:

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... the improvements made to hurricane forecasts alone from 2007 to 2020 amounted to an average savings of $5 billion per hurricane. The amount saved in one hurricane hit from these programs is larger than the entire budget proposed to fund NOAA in 2026.

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Miami-TV weather guy clams that spending money to forecast hurricanes actually saves money.

Another version of the classic "don't make cuts to my area of expertise or you all gonna die."

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The are reports/studies out there that show that spending money on prevention does actually save money in the long run.

Anecedote (personal experience) is that during Imelda, several people 'flooded' on my street. Turns out a cypress root had grown under a 24" culver seam and blocked ~70% of the flow of water out to the ditch. The city tried a couple of times to fix it (after finding it AFTER Imelda), but eventually neighbor and buddy cleared it out.

So say that was $5k of work. The 3-5 house that got flooded (about 1-2" of water in their place) is how much to fix? So spend $5k or have 5 people ~$30k each ($150k total)?

I feel there are some things you can't save (Lake Charles losing all the power lines in large areas), but other things can save money, especially on some of the fringe things (like my example).

~egon

I think it's better to say that accurately forecasting hurricanes primarily saves lives. I don't think there's any doubt that our NHC is the best in the world, and their forecasting abilities are second to none.

But that doesn't mean there hasn't been scope creep that should be removed.

I don't think it's fair or reasonable to claim that there are negative impacts simply because there's less money. There may just be less "other" stuff handled than their primary mission.

Because shutting down a refinery, chemical plant or LNG plant isn't like turning off your HVAC unit.

It takes a good 3 or so days to safely do that.

So, if i know that a hurricane or storm is coming in 5 days vs. 2 days, i can either make more money OR i can prepare my site for the storm.


ALSO, in light of recent TX events, if you know there's bad stuff coming, I can stage rescue equipment, repair equipment, and other stuff. Out of harms way, with supplies, ready to go.

~egon

I would argue the scope creep is helping them forecast better.

Balloons
More flights
Better satellites
Etc

Collect data to put into computer models. Stopping data collection means the models are set. No updates or refinement. And last i checked, the weather isn't "set".

Dr. Doctor said:

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Because shutting down a refinery, chemical plant or LNG plant isn't like turning off your HVAC unit.

It takes a good 3 or so days to safely do that.

So, if i know that a hurricane or storm is coming in 5 days vs. 2 days, i can either make more money OR i can prepare my site for the storm.


ALSO, in light of recent TX events, if you know there's bad stuff coming, I can stage rescue equipment, repair equipment, and other stuff. Out of harms way, with supplies, ready to go.

~egon

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Dr. Doctor said:

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Because shutting down a refinery, chemical plant or LNG plant isn't like turning off your HVAC unit.

It takes a good 3 or so days to safely do that.

So, if i know that a hurricane or storm is coming in 5 days vs. 2 days, i can either make more money OR i can prepare my site for the storm.


ALSO, in light of recent TX events, if you know there's bad stuff coming, I can stage rescue equipment, repair equipment, and other stuff. Out of harms way, with supplies, ready to go.

~egon

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Nah, man. Just hit stop and dump it all to the flare.

Beryl was predicted to hit around Port Aransas five days before and not Houston. I guess that prediction saved Jetch some money since he canceled his trip down there like a giant poon.

Captain Winky said:

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Beryl was predicted to hit around Port Aransas five days before and not Houston. I guess that prediction saved Jetch some money since he canceled his trip down there like a giant poon.

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Suck my sack.

You forgot one other thing:

Call and complain about the light/smoke coming from the flare.

And then post online that the site is releasing TOCIX ChEMCIALS TO THE AIR!!!1!!!

~egon

This summer…I'm ok with that.

Dear Lawd please spare us from more rain so that we don't have to listen to a certain poster b/tch about his soggy post holes. Amen.