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2025 StatSim: Texas A&M at LSU

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A is A
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 12:25p, 10/21/25
AG
SpreadsheetAg said:
JohnClark929 said:
Need to improve on interceptions on both sides, but the overall stats look good.

It's a pretty major red flag statistic. LSU gets more than 1 TO from us, and our chances go down alot.


To be fair. Florida did throw them 5 in one game so their D-INT stats are skewed.
A is A
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Mr.Milkshake
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12:25p, 10/21/25
Just gonna throw out there that you could use your same statsim to produce a weekly SEC power ranking…..
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NoahAg
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12:29p, 10/21/25
How many points does homefield give them? On paper it seems we have a lot of advantage over them. If it wasn't LSU in BR I'd say we win just looking at the numbers.

But I also know that they are as big, as strong, and as fast as our roster. The way we didn't play defense at arky I predict Nussmeier goes for 300+ yards, 3 TDs.

LSU - 27
Ags - 23
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halfastros81
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In reply to DTX_12 • 12:58p, 10/21/25
AG
I guess you meant to say we've never won in Baton Rouge since joining the SEC?
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halfastros81
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1:05p, 10/21/25
AG
LSU's scoring high water mark for the season against any team with a pulse was 24 in their loss last week to Vandy. I don't expect an ez win but I expect it to be comfortable in q4.
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DE4D
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 1:09p, 10/21/25
AG
They did bomb the moon, cause it's haunted.
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MaroonStain
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In reply to Athanasius • 1:10p, 10/21/25
AG
Athanasius said:
I trust Spreadsheet, but my AI is coming up with we lose 3 of 5 times. Homefield advantage at night is the deciding factor.

  • Simulation 1: Texas A&M 27, LSU 24
  • Simulation 2: Texas A&M 31, LSU 35
  • Simulation 3: Texas A&M 20, LSU 23
  • Simulation 4: Texas A&M 38, LSU 33
  • Simulation 5: Texas A&M 24, LSU 28


    • LSU doesn't score 35 points
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    fightintxaggie10
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    1:33p, 10/21/25
    AG
    The LSU team is going to come out fighting like hell. We've seen it when Jimbo was on the hot seat. We gotta play disciplined ball to walk out of there with a win.
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    SpreadsheetAg
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    In reply to RC_57 • 1:55p, 10/21/25
    AG
    RC_57 said:
    And is the accuracy trending up or down, or flat?

    I've got enough Vice Presidents at my company that ask for this kind of thing; not gonna do it for you TexAgs delegators
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    Bob Knights Liver
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    In reply to Athanasius • 1:56p, 10/21/25
    Athanasius said:
    I trust Spreadsheet, but my AI is coming up with we lose 3 of 5 times. Homefield advantage at night is the deciding factor.

  • Simulation 1: Texas A&M 27, LSU 24
  • Simulation 2: Texas A&M 31, LSU 35
  • Simulation 3: Texas A&M 20, LSU 23
  • Simulation 4: Texas A&M 38, LSU 33
  • Simulation 5: Texas A&M 24, LSU 28

    • Counterpoint: your AI suck balls and is also wrong; therefore, spreadsheet's model must be correct.
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    SpreadsheetAg
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    In reply to NoahAg • 1:58p, 10/21/25
    AG
    NoahAg said:
    How many points does homefield give them? On paper it seems we have a lot of advantage over them. If it wasn't LSU in BR I'd say we win just looking at the numbers.

    But I also know that they are as big, as strong, and as fast as our roster. The way we didn't play defense at arky I predict Nussmeier goes for 300+ yards, 3 TDs.

    LSU - 27
    Ags - 23

    If it was at Kyle - 28-18
    If it was Neutral - 26-19
    Since it's in B/R - it is what the model says it is ... 24 - 20 +/- 1

    I've been doing this on and off for nearly 15 years - and the model has been revised a handful of times (especially between years 1, 2, 3) to account for many of these same questions, as I found them as good suggestions.
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    TheBonifaceOption
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    In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 2:10p, 10/21/25
    SpreadsheetAg said:
    NoahAg said:
    How many points does homefield give them? On paper it seems we have a lot of advantage over them. If it wasn't LSU in BR I'd say we win just looking at the numbers.

    But I also know that they are as big, as strong, and as fast as our roster. The way we didn't play defense at arky I predict Nussmeier goes for 300+ yards, 3 TDs.

    LSU - 27
    Ags - 23

    If it was at Kyle - 28-18
    If it was Neutral - 26-19
    Since it's in B/R - it is what the model says it is ... 24 - 20 +/- 1

    I've been doing this on and off for nearly 15 years - and the model has been revised a handful of times (especially between years 1, 2, 3) to account for many of these same questions, as I found them as good suggestions.


    Did you re-run your model last week with a 2hr lightning delay? Because 45-42 wasnt anywhere near the prediction. Not being a jerk, just curious because the estimations were so far off.
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    SpreadsheetAg
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    In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 2:15p, 10/21/25
    AG
    Every predictive model will be off; you can only consider the probabilities of accuracy with predictive analytics.

    Even Pate's #1 rating of Miami was thrown in the garbage can last week.

    This is supposed to be a fun thing for me to share... it's quiet off-putting when people are mad because a fun prediction algorithm was off by a bit, but still guessed the winner.
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    AgOutsideAustin
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    2:18p, 10/21/25
    AG
    Uh oh….. this won't help.
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    Heineken-Ashi
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    In reply to MaroonStain • 2:20p, 10/21/25
    MaroonStain said:
    boyfriend said:
    low scoring and a one score game so turnovers and/or special teams might decide it


    Plus crowd and "home cooking". I am expecting at least 2 fitty fitty penalties to go against us. Also, we have had at least 1 (if not 2) quarter each game that we go stagnant on BOTH offense and defense.

    All the makings of a 4th quarter game!!!

    LFG!

    Over/under on # of TD's we have wiped out from penalties that dont get called around the country.. ever.. is 1.5. I'm taking the over.
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    AgOutsideAustin
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    2:20p, 10/21/25
    AG
    Undefeated and questioning Spreadsheet and his methods.

    We don't deserve him.

    Way to go Texags.
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    SociallyConditionedAg
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    In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 2:35p, 10/21/25
    AG
    SpreadsheetAg said:
    Every predictive model will be off; you can only consider the probabilities of accuracy with predictive analytics.

    Even Pate's #1 rating of Miami was thrown in the garbage can last week.

    This is supposed to be a fun thing for me to share... it's quiet off-putting when people are mad because a fun prediction algorithm was off by a bit, but still guessed the winner.

    Don't let the haters get you down. We love your analysis!
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    TX_COWDOC
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    2:35p, 10/21/25
    AG
    Love the spreadsheets. Does your algorithm take into account how many times we are going to put Nuss on the turf? I predict a scoop and score and possibly a pick six. One of those will be called back by a phantom penalty, of course. I'm still trying to get that worked out in my algorithm.
    www.southpawprecision.com
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    halfastros81
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    2:45p, 10/21/25
    AG
    This is just anecdotal , no analysis involved but I have found your model and predictions to be interesting and generally quite good Spreadsheet. Glad you do it and share it here.
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    TheBonifaceOption
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    In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 2:48p, 10/21/25
    SpreadsheetAg said:
    Every predictive model will be off; you can only consider the probabilities of accuracy with predictive analytics.

    Even Pate's #1 rating of Miami was thrown in the garbage can last week.

    This is supposed to be a fun thing for me to share... it's quiet off-putting when people are mad because a fun prediction algorithm was off by a bit, but still guessed the winner.

    To your credit, our points scored was pretty dang close.

    I wonder if you disregarded the Pittman games, that the final Arky score would have been higher?
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    AggieAces06
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    2:51p, 10/21/25
    AG
    Y'all need to be nice to Spreadsheet and not run him off!

    I love the model and I know it's for fun and not a sure bet. If you want it done better, do it yourself!
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    AgOutsideAustin
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    In reply to AggieAces06 • 4:43p, 10/21/25
    AG
    AggieAces06 said:
    Y'all need to be nice to Spreadsheet and not run him off!

    I love the model and I know it's for fun and not a sure bet. If you want it done better, do it yourself!



    Hold it right there Ace that's not how we do things around here. We take for granted a man's great work and question it endlessly full well knowing there ain't no way we could or would do it ourselves.
    Sincerely,
    Texags
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    TheDecadeSapling
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    In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 4:59p, 10/21/25
    AG
    That would've been like one data point. What kind of analysis can you get with one data point?
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    TheDecadeSapling
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    In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 5:07p, 10/21/25
    AG
    I personally find your predictions to be quite entertaining. Please keep doing them
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    JuneBug07
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    In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 7:17p, 10/21/25
    AG
    SpreadsheetAg said:
    Every predictive model will be off; you can only consider the probabilities of accuracy with predictive analytics.

    Even Pate's #1 rating of Miami was thrown in the garbage can last week.

    This is supposed to be a fun thing for me to share... it's quiet off-putting when people are mad because a fun prediction algorithm was off by a bit, but still guessed the winner.



    Overwhelming majority of us love what you do and appreciate the time it takes to do this. Some people just suck.



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    TheBonifaceOption
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    In reply to TheDecadeSapling • 7:33p, 10/21/25
    TheDecadeSapling said:
    That would've been like one data point. What kind of analysis can you get with one data point?


    SpreadsheetAg doing week 2 predictions:

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    TheDecadeSapling
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    In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 7:39p, 10/21/25
    AG
    Yeah with the disclaimer that it's not gonna be accurate due to few data points…..
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    Wolfpac 08
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    In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 8:59p, 10/21/25
    AG
    TheBonifaceOption said:
    SpreadsheetAg said:
    NoahAg said:
    How many points does homefield give them? On paper it seems we have a lot of advantage over them. If it wasn't LSU in BR I'd say we win just looking at the numbers.

    But I also know that they are as big, as strong, and as fast as our roster. The way we didn't play defense at arky I predict Nussmeier goes for 300+ yards, 3 TDs.

    LSU - 27
    Ags - 23

    If it was at Kyle - 28-18
    If it was Neutral - 26-19
    Since it's in B/R - it is what the model says it is ... 24 - 20 +/- 1

    I've been doing this on and off for nearly 15 years - and the model has been revised a handful of times (especially between years 1, 2, 3) to account for many of these same questions, as I found them as good suggestions.


    Did you re-run your model last week with a 2hr lightning delay? Because 45-42 wasnt anywhere near the prediction. Not being a jerk, just curious because the estimations were so far off.


    Looks like we found the dip**** that used this to gamble his lunch money instead of just enjoying it for what it is.

    Keep doing your thing, Spreadsheet…ignore the morons
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    TheBonifaceOption
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    In reply to Wolfpac 08 • 9:41p, 10/21/25
    Wolfpac 08 said:
    TheBonifaceOption said:
    SpreadsheetAg said:
    NoahAg said:
    How many points does homefield give them? On paper it seems we have a lot of advantage over them. If it wasn't LSU in BR I'd say we win just looking at the numbers.

    But I also know that they are as big, as strong, and as fast as our roster. The way we didn't play defense at arky I predict Nussmeier goes for 300+ yards, 3 TDs.

    LSU - 27
    Ags - 23

    If it was at Kyle - 28-18
    If it was Neutral - 26-19
    Since it's in B/R - it is what the model says it is ... 24 - 20 +/- 1

    I've been doing this on and off for nearly 15 years - and the model has been revised a handful of times (especially between years 1, 2, 3) to account for many of these same questions, as I found them as good suggestions.


    Did you re-run your model last week with a 2hr lightning delay? Because 45-42 wasnt anywhere near the prediction. Not being a jerk, just curious because the estimations were so far off.


    Looks like we found the dip**** that used this to gamble his lunch money instead of just enjoying it for what it is.

    Keep doing your thing, Spreadsheet…ignore the morons

    Spreadsheet said he has learned to tweak the model over years. I asked if the tweaking accounted for weather delays.

    Go DNA test your children.
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    SpreadsheetAg
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    10:13p, 10/21/25
    AG
    It doesn't account for weather delays.

    To do that, I would have to know there was definitely going to be bad weather 3-4 days before the game and enough bad weather to actually cause a delay.

    I am not Air Force Ags (the premium board weather man)
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    Philip J Fry
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    In reply to Athanasius • 10:24p, 10/21/25
    AG
    Athanasius said:
    I trust Spreadsheet, but my AI is coming up with we lose 3 of 5 times. Homefield advantage at night is the deciding factor.

  • Simulation 1: Texas A&M 27, LSU 24
  • Simulation 2: Texas A&M 31, LSU 35
  • Simulation 3: Texas A&M 20, LSU 23
  • Simulation 4: Texas A&M 38, LSU 33
  • Simulation 5: Texas A&M 24, LSU 28


    • ChatGPT still thinks Jimbo is head coach
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    cavscout96
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    In reply to DTX_12 • 10:32p, 10/21/25
    AG
    DTX_12 said:
    I know it's almost impossible to think this way as a long time Ag fan, especially because we've never won in Baton Rouge, but it just kind of feels like it might be the time we get a big win. I think we are going to win by 10+

    we've won in BR - its just been over three decades... I was there.
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    Wolfpac 08
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    In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 12:34a, 10/22/25
    AG
    What do my children have to do with the fact that you asked a stupid question?
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    annie88
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    In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 1:59a, 10/22/25
    AG
    You seem like an Aggie with a spreadsheet.
    Be who you are, and say what you feel, because those who mind don’t matter and those who matter don’t mind.
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    annie88
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    2:07a, 10/22/25
    AG
    We didn't play LSU from 1995 to 2011.

    So the 1994 stat really is not quite as ominous as it seems.

    Sounds bad, especially if we had played them every year since then, but we haven't. Still been a long time, and they lead our all-time series 32243, but we need to win in Baton Rouge this weekend.

    But hey, the first time we ever played them in 1899 we beat them 520. Let's do that again.
    Be who you are, and say what you feel, because those who mind don’t matter and those who matter don’t mind.
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