65% chance
- This is going to be a tough 6-7 game series that the Thunder will still likely win but Pacers deserve more credit than they were given before it started. Lightning can't keep striking for the Pacers, right?
30% chance
- The Pacers showed the Thunder their tricks last night and now the Thunder will adjust and suffocate them.
- The Bucks, depleted Cavs and Knicks didn't have the ammo to throw a wrench in the Pacers' style the way the Thunder possibly can.
- The Thunder have now lost two "flukey" last minute games at home in the playoffs (the other to Denver), both of which OKC was coming off 8+ days of rest.
- Dub and Chet are prone to bad games here and there but they won't combine to be THAT bad again.
- Thunder shot 45% on their "layups" in g1 haha.
5% chance
- The Pacers are a uniquely bad matchup for OKC and will hold serve at home to win in 6 (or less) with minimal drama.
- The Thunder have a crafty relentlessness/effort advantage against most teams but Indiana has a similar style and doesn't seem phased by OKC in that way. If anything, they bring the "fight" to OKC.
- The Thunder need their easy buckets in transition because their half-court offense is prone to go cold for stretches. Pacers are good at getting back on defense when they turn it over. Despite all the turnovers in the first half last night, the Thunder didn't capitalize on many.
- The Pacers have Haliburton and Siakam, but unlike other teams the Thunder have faced in the playoffs, they aren't really the kind of team where you "just shut those two guys down and they'll stall out" (ie Randle/Ant). They have threats across the board. Guys who are playing with an absurd level of confidence.
- The Pacers really could be a team of destiny akin to the 2019 Nats. The run that they're on is incredible.
Relative to the Denver squad that took OKC to seven, Indiana is a diff type of matchup. Denver with Jokic is like playing a 2010s Bama team running Derrick Henry at you out of the I. You can scheme all you want but it almost comes down more to grit. The Pacers remind me of playing a really good 2000s Leach Texas Tech team that can explode for points but ultimately can be schemed by better teams.