Official Hall of Fame Discussion

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AggieEP
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12:15a, 6/26/25
We've had these conversations off and on in various other threads, this is my attempt to consolidate conversation in one place.

ETA: I think we should pick a borderline candidate each week for discussion. So this week was deGrom, and I'll throw out a new candidate next week.

Tonight following deGrom's near no-hit bid, I went ahead and looked over his career stats again and started thinking.

Say he wins the Cy Young award this year giving him 3 for his career. And then say he has two more above average seasons pitching with the Rangers until he's 39 and then retires.

That'd put him probably around 120-130 career wins.

The lowest win total for a starter in the HoF is currently 150.

So normal logic would say he's got no chance based on the importance that wins usually have for a starter. But, with deGrom we'd be talking about a guy with 3 Cy Youngs, a historically good ERA, the best K to BB rate in MLB history and someone who clearly passes the HoF eye test.

So what do you all think when it comes to deGrom?
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byfLuger41
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5:44a, 6/26/25
AG
No
TO THE DROP ZONE!!!
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BCSWguru
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6:54a, 6/26/25
maybe a veterans committee pick, dont see him getting the votes.

on the other hand, its impossible to try and compare current players to those of yesteryear. its a completely different game.
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AgRyan04
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8:12a, 6/26/25
He would be the first 3 time CY winner not in
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AustinAg2K
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11:04a, 6/26/25
I think a lot would depend on what the Rangers do the next couple of years. If the Rangers were to turn things around this year, and deGrom leads them to the WS, and then maybe one of the solid seasons he as in later years also leads to a deep playoff run, where he has a couple of key starts in October, then maybe he gets a shot.

That said, I think it's a huge stretch to just give him the Cy Young at this point. He's having a great season so far, but Brown, Skubal and Fried are arguably having better seasons, and they are pitching for contenders. If you were to vote for CY right now, I think he's third or fourth at best. Also, you've got to factor in that he will almost certainly get injured at some point this season. So, I think the whole premise is extremely unlikely.
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AustinAg2K
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In reply to AgRyan04 • 11:07a, 6/26/25
AgRyan04 said:
He would be the first 3 time CY winner not in


Roger Clemens.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to BCSWguru • 11:08a, 6/26/25
AG
BCSWguru said:
maybe a veterans committee pick, dont see him getting the votes.

on the other hand, its impossible to try and compare current players to those of yesteryear. its a completely different game.
This.

It's so easy to just compare numbers and say "yes" or "no" but really you have to compare to the other players in the same era.
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The Original Houston 1836
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11:17a, 6/26/25
No Texas Ranger can win a Cy Young. It's the 11th Commandment, handed down by God to Moses yea, high on a mountain.

91 wins at age 37 isn't getting you into the HOF unless you win 10 a year until you're 55.

Different eras sure, but there have to be some minimum standards.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to AggieEP • 11:22a, 6/26/25
AG
deGrom is an easy yes for me. The old milestones for pitchers don't matter. No one will ever reach them again. From 2014 to early 2020s when the injury bug got him, he was the best pitcher in baseball.

Even with the injuries, he's 3rd in fWAR from 2014-2025 ahead of Cole, Sale, Verlander, Wheeler, Nola, Gray, Kluber, etc.

I think it's all safe to say - Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, & Greinke are locks. I would include deGrom too. After that is where it gets interesting. Where does everyone stand on the following?

  • Chris Sale
  • David Price
  • Zack Wheeler
  • David Price
  • Corey Kluber
  • Stephen Strasburg
  • Yu Darvish
  • Adam Wainwright
  • Madison Bumgarner
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AustinAg2K
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11:30a, 6/26/25
Sandy Koufax is the closet I can think of for a conversation like this. He won 3 Cy Youngs in 12 years, which would be the same as deGrom if deGrom were to somehow win this year. However, Koufax was much more dominate in his career. Here are the basic numbers for his Cy Young Seasons:

1963 25-5, 1.88 ERA, 306 Ks, 10.7 WAR
1965 26-8, 2.04 ERA, 382 Ks, 8.1 WAR
1966 27-9, 1.73 ERA, 317 Ks, 10.3 WAR

Here are deGrom's 2:
2018 10-9, 1.70 ERA, 269 Ks, 9.4 WAR
2019 11-8, 2.43 ERA, 255 Ks, 7.2 WAR

I know it's hard to compare eras, but in my opinion, Koufax was far more dominate. Besides the 3 Cy Youngs, he also had an MVP, two WS MVPs, and three rings. DeGrom has been good in his few playoff starts, but there aren't enough of them. If you're going to make the hall based entirely off a couple of dominate seasons, then those seasons need to include trips to the WS, and huge moments in October. DeGrom doesn't have those right now.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to AustinAg2K • 11:33a, 6/26/25
AG
AustinAg2K said:
Sandy Koufax is the closet I can think of for a conversation like this. He won 3 Cy Youngs in 12 years, which would be the same as deGrom if deGrom were to somehow win this year. However, Koufax was much more dominate in his career. Here are the basic numbers for his Cy Young Seasons:

1963 25-5, 1.88 ERA, 306 Ks, 10.7 WAR
1965 26-8, 2.04 ERA, 382 Ks, 8.1 WAR
1966 27-9, 1.73 ERA, 317 Ks, 10.3 WAR

Here are deGrom's 2:
2018 10-9, 1.70 ERA, 269 Ks, 9.4 WAR
2019 11-8, 2.43 ERA, 255 Ks, 7.2 WAR

I know it's hard to compare eras, but in my opinion, Koufax was far more dominate. Besides the 3 Cy Youngs, he also had an MVP, two WS MVPs, and three rings. DeGrom has been good in his few playoff starts, but there aren't enough of them. If you're going to make the hall based entirely off a couple of dominate seasons, then those seasons need to include trips to the WS, and huge moments in October. DeGrom doesn't have those right now.
He has a career 2.49 ERA for his 12-year career. His worst season by ERA was 2017 when he had a 3.53.
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AgRyan04
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11:39a, 6/26/25
I refuse to include anything related to post season for HOF candidacy until Jim Leyritz & Billy Bates get inducted to Cooperstown.
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jja79
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In reply to AustinAg2K • 1:17p, 6/26/25
AG
He's no Sandy Koufax.
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AggieEP
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 8:53p, 6/26/25
This is kind of where I am too. He was clearly a top 3-5 starting pitcher for a 6-7 year period. If he wins another Cy late in his career, then why wouldn't we see him as a Hall of famer?

If we draw a red line at deGrom, then we're basically saying that starting pitchers no longer have a path to the hall of fame. Skenes is 4-6 this year, on pace for 8 wins.

If he averages 8 wins for the next 15 years he'd be at 120 wins. Do we really care that much about wins? Can't we recognize dominance on the mound in other ways?

How much do we hold deGrom's 2 Tommy John surgeries against him? Why do we care that the Mets never scored when he pitched?
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AggieEP
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 8:56p, 6/26/25
I would say yes on Sale and then Bumgarner and David Price would be in the next tier under him just missing the cut for me.

I think anyone without a Cy Young award as a starter shouldn't really be considered barring other extenuating evidence, i.e. Nolan Ryan.
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AggieEP
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 9:02p, 6/26/25
texasaggie2015 said:
BCSWguru said:
maybe a veterans committee pick, dont see him getting the votes.

on the other hand, its impossible to try and compare current players to those of yesteryear. its a completely different game.
This.

It's so easy to just compare numbers and say "yes" or "no" but really you have to compare to the other players in the same era.


If you could pick any pitcher in the league from 2015-2021 to start game 7 of the World Series, who would it have been?

To me the answer is EASY, deGrom during that period was going to give you 7 innings and 1 or 2 ERs almost guaranteed.

So compared with his peers, he was the best for a pretty extended period. Considering what he's doing this year, it's not much of a leap to think that he would have also been the best pitcher in the league from 2021-2024 if not for his health issues.

His WHIP was .55 and his ERA was 1.08 over 92 innings in 2021... That is unfathomably great. If he could have stayed healthy for even another 50 innings that is already his 3rd Cy Young.
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The Original Houston 1836
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9:18p, 6/26/25
Staying healthy is part of what makes a Hall of Famer a Hall of Famer. Sustained excellence over a long period of time.

Guys like Fred Lynn and Jim Edmonds were on Hall of Fame tracks early in their careers but couldn't stay healthy.

The Hall of Fame should be a no-doubter entry way. Not a "Hey, if I gerrymander the stats this way and don't include this category, he gets in."
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AggieEP
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In reply to The Original Houston 1836 • 9:29p, 6/26/25
There is nothing gerrymandered about this.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/32796/year/2021/category/pitching

Healthy deGrom is the best starting pitcher of his era, but he had bad luck with injuries. His first TJ surgery made it to where he didn't debut until he was 26 years old, and his second one cost him basically 2 full seasons.

Now he's back healthy and dominating just like the old deGrom.

There was a 3 month period in there where deGrom gave up 6 ERs total.

Earlier a poster said that he wasn't Koufax, but really it's an apt comparison. He should have won 20 games a year but his team let him down consistently. If deGrom had 175 wins right now, maybe some of you would view this differently.


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The Original Houston 1836
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In reply to AggieEP • 11:26p, 6/26/25
AggieEP said:
There is nothing gerrymandered about this.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/32796/year/2021/category/pitching

Healthy deGrom is the best starting pitcher of his era, but he had bad luck with injuries. His first TJ surgery made it to where he didn't debut until he was 26 years old, and his second one cost him basically 2 full seasons.

Now he's back healthy and dominating just like the old deGrom.

There was a 3 month period in there where deGrom gave up 6 ERs total.

Earlier a poster said that he wasn't Koufax, but really it's an apt comparison. He should have won 20 games a year but his team let him down consistently. If deGrom had 175 wins right now, maybe some of you would view this differently.


You're making my points for me.

He doesn't have 175 wins. He doesn't even have 100. He's just as likely to get hurt tomorrow and miss 2 more years as he is to go 16-5 this year and win the Cy Young. He's had a great career, if you can't stay healthy, you're not making the HoF. There are literally dozens of examples across time including a few below.

Does JR Richard belong in the Hall of Fame? He had 5 straight years of 18-20 wins and was having his best season ever in 1980 when he had a stroke and never pitched again. More than 300 strikeouts twice, 107-71 record, 3.15 ERA.
I'm an Astro die-hard, but I don't think he's in the HOF because his career ended too soon because of injuries. He got 1.6% of the vote in 1986 for the Hall.

How about Don Mattingly? Easily the best offensive player in baseball from 1984-1987, and had a couple more good years, then injuries destroyed him. He's got 2,153 hits and 222 career HR. Hall of Fame? He peeked at 28.2% of the vote in 2001.

How about Nomar Garciaparra? As good as Jeter or A-Rod from 1997-2003, then injuries took over and he as a shell of his former self from 2004-2009. Didn't even get to 2,000 hits. .321 batting average in the post-season. Got 5.5% and 1.8% of the HOF vote.

How about Thurman Munson? Won an MVP, won Rookie of the Year, .292 career hitter, won 3 Gold Glove, made the All-Star team 7 times, hit .373 in 3 WS appearances, won 2 titles, and died in a plane crash at age 32. Hall of Fame? Peaked at 15.5% of the vote in 1981.

What about Fernando? Won the Cy-Young as a rookie in 1981, had 111 wins by age 26, finished top 5 for Cy Young 4 time, was a national phenomenon the likes of which baseball has rarely seen since, and had a 1.98 career post-season ERA. Then fell off from injuries from 1988-1997 and limped to a 173-153 record HOF?

What about Orel Hershisher? From 84-89, his ERAs were 2.66, 2.03, 3.85, 3.06, 2.26, 2.31. Had a 19-3 seaso with a 2.03 ERA, won the Cy Young going 23-8 with 15 complete games and 8 shutouts, and owns one of the most improbably records of all time for consective scoreless innings, won a Cy Young and was MVP of the NLCS and the World Series the same year. But also threw his arm out by leading the NL in innings pitched 3 straight years from 1987-1989. Missed almost all of 1990 and was OK, but not great the rest of his career. 204-150 record. Hall of Fame? Never got higher than 11.2%.

What about Bret Saberhagen? Two Cy Youngs by age 25. Two 20+ win seasons by age 25, a legendary 1989 season - 23-6, 2.16 ERA, 12 complete games, 262 innings pitched. Had an 18-10 season on there as well. At age 25 he was 92-61 he had more wins at age 25 than deGrom has now. Then he got hurt in 1990 at age 26 and never won more than 14 games again but still finished 50 games over .500 for his career (167-117) . Ws also World Series MVP at age 21. He got 1.3% of the vote in 2007.

Do they all get in? If not, how come?

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Faustus
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In reply to AggieEP • 12:48a, 6/27/25
AggieEP said:
We've had these conversations off and on in various other threads, this is my attempt to consolidate conversation in one place.

Tonight following deGrom's near no-hit bid, I went ahead and looked over his career stats again and started thinking.

Say he wins the Cy Young award this year giving him 3 for his career. And then say he has two more above average seasons pitching with the Rangers until he's 39 and then retires.

That'd put him probably around 120-130 career wins.

The lowest win total for a starter in the HoF is currently 150.

So normal logic would say he's got no chance based on the importance that wins usually have for a starter. But, with deGrom we'd be talking about a guy with 3 Cy Youngs, a historically good ERA, the best K to BB rate in MLB history and someone who clearly passes the HoF eye test.

So what do you all think when it comes to deGrom?


He's 5th-6th in the AL in the Cy Young race now. If he's going to have two more good years after this one in the hypothetical you might as well give him the Cy Young one of those years too for the HOF bid.

I don't see how they would keep him out with 4 Cy Youngs.

https://www.foxsports.com/articles/mlb/2025-mlb-cy-young-odds-al-and-nl-favorites

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/06/poll-al-cy-young-race-check-in.html

https://www.espn.com/sports-betting/story/_/id/44476769/2025-mlb-odds-tracker-mvp-cy-young-rookie-year-espnbet
(DeGrom 15-1, Skubal -260)

Logan Webb has similar odds to beat Skenes in the NL for the Cy Young.
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AggieEP
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In reply to The Original Houston 1836 • 12:48a, 6/27/25
As a poster said earlier, you have to compare against peers, not against guys that played 40 years ago. Voters have also been slowly evolving in how they vote, so the candidacies of the guys you mentioned aren't really predictive of future outcomes.

I guess in many ways it just depends on how you define the hall of fame.

To me, it should include great ball players like deGrom who won't end up with the traditional counting stats that guarantee your spot in the hall. Any eye test tells you that he's been as good as if not better than Verlander, Scherzer and Kershaw.

And for the record, I'd have guys like Mattingly and Hershseiser in the hall as well.

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BMX Bandit
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In reply to AggieEP • 5:52a, 6/27/25
If he gets a 3rd, he's in.

I just don't think it's in the cards that he gets a 3rd
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AggieEP
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In reply to BMX Bandit • 9:01a, 6/27/25
What of he finishes in the top 3 a couple of times?

That'd give him 5 top 3 finishes. Hard to ignore the sustained greatness at that point.
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W
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9:24a, 6/27/25
AG
deGrom has started 234 games in his career -- that's just not enough at this point -- get to 300 please

Koufax started 314 career games and appeared in a total of 397. He recorded saves in seasons he also started 40 games

-----

further...DeGrom only has 4 complete games & 2 shutouts in his entire career -- very underwhelming

Framber Valdez has 9 complete games & 4 shutouts in 151 career starts
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Farmer1906
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10:26a, 6/27/25
AG
I think it is important to judge a player by how he compares to his peers during his era. Pitchers today are very different from pitchers in the early 2000s and extremely different from 1960s, and don't even get me started on the early 1900s. Its a different game and should be judged differently.

Here is where Jacob deGrom ranks over the last 15 years. (min 1000 IP)

Counting
51st in IP
57th in GS
22nd in QS
19th in SO
4th in Runs (3 below him have significantly fewer IP)
7th in fWAR

Rate
2nd ERA
1st FIP
1st xFIP
2nd SIERA
1st K%
1st K-BB%

He has an argument for the best pitcher of the last 15 years. If he continues to play out his current deal, it'll be more like the best pitcher in a 20-year window with only a handful of others in the conversation.


One other thing I would like to point out. "+" and "-" stats compare a player to the league average of the timeframe. You can see how dominant a player is in his time.

ERA- (SP only, min 1000 IP)
  • Satchel Paige 60 (40% better than league avg for his entire career)
  • Pedro Martinez 67
  • Walter Johnson 68
  • Lefty Grove 68
    • --
  • Cy Young 74
    • --
  • Sandy Koufax 75
  • Whitey Ford 75
  • Randy Johnson 75
    • --
  • Greg Maddox 76
  • Roy Halladay 76
    • --
  • Bob Gibson 78
    • --
  • Mike Mussina 82
    • --
  • Tom Glavine 86
    • --
  • Nolan Ryan 90

Where does deGrom stand? 64! If you look at FIP (take away defense), he's still at 64. Ahead of literally every other starter ever (min 1000 IP).


Attendance matters, but for me, it's a sliding scale.
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BMX Bandit
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In reply to AggieEP • 12:10p, 6/27/25
I don't think anyone is arguing his sustained greatness.
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AggieEP
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:36p, 6/27/25
Wow, thanks for posting those numbers.

I was pretty much all in on his candidacy anyway, but when you can quantify that he might be a top one or two starting pitcher of all time by quality... that's almost impossible to ignore.

Hopefully some of the counting stats continue to rise as well making this a moot point.
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The Original Houston 1836
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1:47p, 6/27/25
Let's get Cy Young's overrated ass off the award.
Should be the Jacob DeGrom Award starting in 2026.
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AggieEP
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In reply to The Original Houston 1836 • 1:53p, 6/27/25
Sarcasm aside, if the numbers can prove that with a minimum of 1000 IP he's top 2 of all time as a SP, does that not at least make a somewhat convincing argument?

What's the minimum innings count you'd want to see? 1500? 2000? For the quality of his output to matter.
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The Original Houston 1836
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In reply to AggieEP • 3:14p, 6/27/25
AggieEP said:
Sarcasm aside, if the numbers can prove that with a minimum of 1000 IP he's top 2 of all time as a SP, does that not at least make a somewhat convincing argument?

What's the minimum innings count you'd want to see? 1500? 2000? For the quality of his output to matter.
No it doesn't because it's not the Hall of Potential Fame.

Career #s to me. Numbers are more sacred in baseball than any other sport. The Hall of Fame is about your career. It should be reserved for guys who were better than almost anyone else for an extended period of time and have the career numbers to back it up.
The only guys I think deserve to be in because of a career-ending injury are Koufax and Puckett. Koufax is the most dominant pitcher of the post WW2 era and Puckett's qualifications were already enough when the glaucoma wiped him out . I'll leave the thread to you because I'm old and more stats aren't going to change my opinion.
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Faustus
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In reply to The Original Houston 1836 • 3:27p, 6/27/25
The Original Houston 1836 said:
AggieEP said:
Sarcasm aside, if the numbers can prove that with a minimum of 1000 IP he's top 2 of all time as a SP, does that not at least make a somewhat convincing argument?

What's the minimum innings count you'd want to see? 1500? 2000? For the quality of his output to matter.
No it doesn't because it's not the Hall of Potential Fame.

Career #s to me. Numbers are more sacred in baseball than any other sport. The Hall of Fame is about your career. It should be reserved for guys who were better than almost anyone else for an extended period of time and have the career numbers to back it up.
The only guys I think deserve to be in because of a career-ending injury are Koufax and Puckett. Koufax is the most dominant pitcher of the post WW2 era and Puckett's qualifications were already enough when the glaucoma wiped him out . I'll leave the thread to you because I'm old and more stats aren't going to change my opinion.


Notwithstanding the fact that more stats are exactly what deGrom needs.

For OP here's an article from 2023 on pitchers, WAR, peak performance, and HOF.

https://sabr.org/journal/article/standardized-peak-war-spw-a-fair-standard-for-historical-comparison-of-peak-value/

He looks comfortably in based on peak performance. If he's been nice to the press that couldn't hurt either.
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AggieEP
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In reply to Faustus • 4:19p, 6/27/25
Cool article thanks for posting it.

More ammo for the pro deGrom crew to look at and chew on. I do think he still needs to finish another season or two healthy or else he will be overlooked regardless of advanced stats and metrics showing how great he was.
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_lefraud_
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5:14p, 6/27/25
AG
Is Johan Santana a good comparison? He didn't sniff the HoF, although I think he should have gotten more of a look, he was robbed of a CY in 2005, had he won that, he would have had 3 straight.

deGrom is more elite than Santana, and easily one of the best of his generation but how this generation will be viewed, voted on will be interesting.
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AggieEP
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In reply to _lefraud_ • 6:18p, 6/27/25
Johan Santana was definitely shortchanged on the voting, and he had even worse injury luck than deGrom.

Santana's peak coming during the peak steroid years as well should have added to how we saw him but the voters did not seem to care.

In Santana's case, he suffers also from what happens when a player is forced to retire instead of getting to retire on their own terms. I think in almost every case like this the player ends up being remembered for being hurt than being great.

It's a big disadvantage not to get to take a victory lap as you retire and have all the writers reminisce about how awesome you were.

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Seven Costanza
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7:28p, 6/27/25
AG
Santana's ERA+ is 136 (25th all time).

deGrom's is 157 (4th all time). Kershaw is 5th. Pedro is 6th.
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