Ok, since no one wants to really discuss Tommy John, let's move on.
This time I'm going to be a bit controversial. This week's guy is Manny Machado, and I don't think he should get in.
The counting stats are going to be there for him, he just got his 2000th hit last night, and he's only 33. But to me, he's the poster child for the huge advantage that guys have when they debut at a really young age. He broke into the bigs as a full time regular at 19 years old. And since that time he's been durable and mostly good and sometimes really good. He's never won an MVP, although he came close a couple of times, and his defense rates as average, especially as he put on about 30 pounds compared to the young version of himself.
And here's the quick comparison I'm going to draw, and I encourage all of you to look at these two career stat lines to see how similar they purely from a numbers standpoint.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngmi02.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml
Michael Young, who didn't get even a second chance on the ballot, has roughly the same numbers in his career that Machado does and at this point they've played in a similar number of games.
Batting Average - Young .300 / Machado .280
Hits - Young 2375 / Machado 2001
Doubles - Young 441 / Machado 384
Triples - Young 60 / Machado 18
Homers - Young 185 / Machado 357
OPS - Young .787 / Machado .827
RBIs - Young 1030 / Machado 1102
OPS+ - Young 104 / Machado 125
They've both been infielders that have moved around to different positions, MY has one gold glove, and Machado has two.
The biggest difference above is obviously the Homeruns, which lead to an OPS and OPS+ advantage for Machado, but that has to make you think, is the Hall of Fame really all about homers?
The biggest difference in these two careers, is that Manny will compile for at least 8 more years because of how young he was when he debuted, and because of the asinine extension the Padres gave him. Everyone around the game loved and respected Michael Young, while everyone knows that Machado is a dewshnozzle. Young debuted at 23 and wasn't a regular until 24. If you give him even 3 more years as a regular, then he's probably up above 2850 hits, and someone gives him the chance to get to 3000, and he doesn't retire at 36.
Now to be clear, I'm not using this to argue that MY should be in the hall of fame, by all metrics he was a really good baseball player, but not a hall of famer. I'm using these numbers to show that Machado, despite popular perception that he's on track to make the hall of fame, isn't really much more than a guy who's going to have a chance to compile a lot of counting numbers because of how young he was when he debuted. Compare his numbers to Berkman (144 OPS+!!!) and again you'll see how debuting late (college kids are particularly hit hard by this) means guys just don't have the ability to compile numbers like the Machados, Sotos, Witts of the world do.
This again goes back to my rough methodology for looking at a guy as a hall of famer. I have to think, was he the best at his position for a period of time. (Machado is a no for me there, for those not wanting to do the research, he only has 2 silver sluggers, and 6 all star selections while MY had 7 and Berkman had 6) Did he win major awards (MVP) again a no. Was he key to a championship team (no).
Stat compiling SHOULD not be the deciding factor on making the Hall. Machado and other early debuters will always have a HUGE and unfair advantage over the guys that don't become regulars until they are 23-25 years old. I mean, hell, look at Soto, he's 26 and almost has as many career hits as Aaron Judge (33) because Judge became a regular in 2017 and Soto did in 2018. If we gave Judge 6 more years of prime, he'd already be over 500 and maybe closing in on 600 career homers with a legit chance at dethroning Barry Bonds. As it stands now though, he's probably going to finish with 550 or so. He'll make the hall, but his prime is worthy of being considered inner inner inner circle hall, like Babe Ruth and Ted Williams inner circle, but he won't finish with counting stats that tell that story.
This time I'm going to be a bit controversial. This week's guy is Manny Machado, and I don't think he should get in.
The counting stats are going to be there for him, he just got his 2000th hit last night, and he's only 33. But to me, he's the poster child for the huge advantage that guys have when they debut at a really young age. He broke into the bigs as a full time regular at 19 years old. And since that time he's been durable and mostly good and sometimes really good. He's never won an MVP, although he came close a couple of times, and his defense rates as average, especially as he put on about 30 pounds compared to the young version of himself.
And here's the quick comparison I'm going to draw, and I encourage all of you to look at these two career stat lines to see how similar they purely from a numbers standpoint.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngmi02.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml
Michael Young, who didn't get even a second chance on the ballot, has roughly the same numbers in his career that Machado does and at this point they've played in a similar number of games.
Batting Average - Young .300 / Machado .280
Hits - Young 2375 / Machado 2001
Doubles - Young 441 / Machado 384
Triples - Young 60 / Machado 18
Homers - Young 185 / Machado 357
OPS - Young .787 / Machado .827
RBIs - Young 1030 / Machado 1102
OPS+ - Young 104 / Machado 125
They've both been infielders that have moved around to different positions, MY has one gold glove, and Machado has two.
The biggest difference above is obviously the Homeruns, which lead to an OPS and OPS+ advantage for Machado, but that has to make you think, is the Hall of Fame really all about homers?
The biggest difference in these two careers, is that Manny will compile for at least 8 more years because of how young he was when he debuted, and because of the asinine extension the Padres gave him. Everyone around the game loved and respected Michael Young, while everyone knows that Machado is a dewshnozzle. Young debuted at 23 and wasn't a regular until 24. If you give him even 3 more years as a regular, then he's probably up above 2850 hits, and someone gives him the chance to get to 3000, and he doesn't retire at 36.
Now to be clear, I'm not using this to argue that MY should be in the hall of fame, by all metrics he was a really good baseball player, but not a hall of famer. I'm using these numbers to show that Machado, despite popular perception that he's on track to make the hall of fame, isn't really much more than a guy who's going to have a chance to compile a lot of counting numbers because of how young he was when he debuted. Compare his numbers to Berkman (144 OPS+!!!) and again you'll see how debuting late (college kids are particularly hit hard by this) means guys just don't have the ability to compile numbers like the Machados, Sotos, Witts of the world do.
This again goes back to my rough methodology for looking at a guy as a hall of famer. I have to think, was he the best at his position for a period of time. (Machado is a no for me there, for those not wanting to do the research, he only has 2 silver sluggers, and 6 all star selections while MY had 7 and Berkman had 6) Did he win major awards (MVP) again a no. Was he key to a championship team (no).
Stat compiling SHOULD not be the deciding factor on making the Hall. Machado and other early debuters will always have a HUGE and unfair advantage over the guys that don't become regulars until they are 23-25 years old. I mean, hell, look at Soto, he's 26 and almost has as many career hits as Aaron Judge (33) because Judge became a regular in 2017 and Soto did in 2018. If we gave Judge 6 more years of prime, he'd already be over 500 and maybe closing in on 600 career homers with a legit chance at dethroning Barry Bonds. As it stands now though, he's probably going to finish with 550 or so. He'll make the hall, but his prime is worthy of being considered inner inner inner circle hall, like Babe Ruth and Ted Williams inner circle, but he won't finish with counting stats that tell that story.
