Not to get too much into someone's business, but Heim shows a lot of signs of a dude that struggles with depression.

Whatever is going on with him, you can't bring him back. He sucks.

Fuzzy Dunlop said:

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South Platte said:

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What if Heim quit catching and focused on serving as full-time DH. Setting aside the man-crush I had (have?) on Mickey Tettleton, I wonder if he could play the role of switch-hitting power bat as DH. Would be a pretty cheap option.

Send Pederson to Jenny Craig camp and maybe he nets some trade value. Or just DFA him like the Astros did Abreu. He's a lost cause. I was pretty much done with him after his ridiculous off-season comments about Houston.

Stuff like this makes or breaks your team. Squeezing production out of guys with marginal talent. Hope Skip and CY can do this.

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I'm willing to give Pederson until the middle of May to return to what he used to be. If he's not back to his pre-2025 numbers, then we need to cut bait. We've given him enough chances by that time. And, hopefully he's back to his old self.

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I never liked the signing, so I'm inclined to give him a lot less rope than you. IMO, if he doesn't show up to spring training in significantly better shape than last year, I'd dump him. I know, it's a lot of money and so on. But he was SO bad last year, anything other than a pretty significant transformation wouldn't make me feel like we would see much better than we already have. As I've pointed out before, he'll be 34 in April - and fat and out of shape ballplayers don't tend to improve with age. Just sayin'

The goal of the offseason should be how to move on from Heim and Pederson, not how to get more out of them. The only way Heim shouldn't be non-tendered is if he can be resigned at backup catcher money, which I assume won't happen.

Welcome back.

don't know how many (if any) of you subscribe to Newburg's service, but he posted some pretty sobering stats regarding the regression of the offense.

Quote:

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I've rolled out an OPS+ progression chart a couple times the last two seasons, but this time I'm going to go with wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus), arguably a more accurate measure for offensive production because it builds wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) into the calculation and wOBA factors in individual hit values rather than just adding total bases like OPS does.

Below are the wRC+ numbers (a value of 100 represents a league-average hitter) for the 12 Rangers who had at least 200 plate appearances in 2025, from most to least along with what they did in 2023 and 2024 (for Burger, Higashioka, and Pederson, I only went back to 2024, showing in red what they did for their previous teams that season):


The math is stark. A whole bunch of decline, and not only among those on the wrong side of 30.

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He also posted the player's Baseball Savant chart (the darker the red, the better..darker the blue, worse)



Basically you have a bunch of regressing players, players who peaked, or maybe just had career years. Takeaway is that the roster as it is currently constructed is a crappy offense and isn't likely to get better without significant changes. Here's to hoping.

Those stats confirm the eyeball test. That is, Josh Smith is an average MLB offensive player, but was the 3rd best hitter on our roster. Many nights he was 2nd or 1st due to injuries. Sobering indeed.

I will add that starting MLB catchers who can play 100+ games with plus batting numbers don't grow on trees. For example, Caratini is a free agent. But look at the numbers. He's not an upgrade over Jonah. The problem isn't Heim. It's the other 8 guys. He's a 9 hole hitter. Standing pat at catcher isn't a terrible move.

I think when you see the start contrast... and it is top-to-bottom in the lineup, IMO, it isn't about the players.

Statistically speaking, it is almost impossible to have every player (sans Langford and Carter) decline like that. Including 3 players new to the team.

We know MLB owns the production of Rawlings baseballs. We know that the Commish has openly talked about changing the baseball to impact drag. We have seen statistics that in GLF, the ball carries LESS than physics says it should.

The Rangers changed hitting coaches, but it was less about the coach and more about the changing game of baseball. The "little rascals" did well because the new brand of MLB is their style of play.

I haven't looked at SLG and OPS+ for the full 2025 season, but the numbers were down in '24 and were trending down for '25. Jung and Adolis need to change their game, IMO.

I am also 100% sure MLB is gaming the NYY-Tor series. Judge has to perform well and be a "hero" and MLB will do everything possible to get a NYY v LAD World Series and Judge be "Mr October."

I've said several times, if Heim plays good defense (he didn't this season unfortunately), you can live with his bat - IF, and that's a big IF, the rest of the offense is solid. You're spot on that good hitting & fielding catchers are unicorns - I have much less of a problem with Heim's bat than I do the fact that he loafed (my perception) in the field this year. Can't have that.

I think he's catching too many games. I think he has value, but more around 100 games. What I see isn't so much loafing, just looks more like fatigue. He's a big dude and I think 4 years of catching 130 games is catching up to him.

His GS at C were
116, 110, 91

He only caught 91 Gs in 2025. I think it was more games than they wanted because Higgy was often injured.

Thanks for posting this. Really interesting to see.

Not much of a sample size, but Carter's chase rate is surprising to me. That was a MAJOR factor of him being o good. What happened?

AgBQ-00 said:

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Not much of a sample size, but Carter's chase rate is surprising to me. That was a MAJOR factor of him being o good. What happened?

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It's faint, but I think it's dark red, so that's really good.

AgBQ-00 said:

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Not much of a sample size, but Carter's chase rate is surprising to me. That was a MAJOR factor of him being o good. What happened?

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Below average batspeed and taking too many pitches early in the count sets up a lot of chases. He has to be more aggressive when he gets a pitch early in the count. But he's fine, mostly. He just can't stay on the field.

If the ceiling for him is Shin-soo Choo, he'll have a heck of a career.

Ahhhh i misread the chart then.

thegoodolag15 said:

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His back worries me. He needs to heavily emphasize strength and conditioning, but you have to wonder how much his back will hold up if he does.

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He played HS football. Big mistake, I imagine.

Truth

Fuzzy Dunlop said:

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South Platte said:

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What if Heim quit catching and focused on serving as full-time DH. Setting aside the man-crush I had (have?) on Mickey Tettleton, I wonder if he could play the role of switch-hitting power bat as DH. Would be a pretty cheap option.

Send Pederson to Jenny Craig camp and maybe he nets some trade value. Or just DFA him like the Astros did Abreu. He's a lost cause. I was pretty much done with him after his ridiculous off-season comments about Houston.

Stuff like this makes or breaks your team. Squeezing production out of guys with marginal talent. Hope Skip and CY can do this.

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I'm willing to give Pederson until the middle of May to return to what he used to be. If he's not back to his pre-2025 numbers, then we need to cut bait. We've given him enough chances by that time. And, hopefully he's back to his old self.

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The problem is Joc Pederson's "old self" is only about 2 weeks per season. He's a career .237/.338/.460 with .798 OPS. He hasn't topped 30 HR in 7 years (and only did it once), he hasn't cracked 20 doubles in 8 years. He has a career 14.4 WAR. He had more Ks than HR+2B+RBI+BB this year

If Heim isn't a big league hitter anymore, then Joc Pederson isn't even a AAA hitter

Tango.Mike said:

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Fuzzy Dunlop said:

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South Platte said:

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What if Heim quit catching and focused on serving as full-time DH. Setting aside the man-crush I had (have?) on Mickey Tettleton, I wonder if he could play the role of switch-hitting power bat as DH. Would be a pretty cheap option.

Send Pederson to Jenny Craig camp and maybe he nets some trade value. Or just DFA him like the Astros did Abreu. He's a lost cause. I was pretty much done with him after his ridiculous off-season comments about Houston.

Stuff like this makes or breaks your team. Squeezing production out of guys with marginal talent. Hope Skip and CY can do this.

---

I'm willing to give Pederson until the middle of May to return to what he used to be. If he's not back to his pre-2025 numbers, then we need to cut bait. We've given him enough chances by that time. And, hopefully he's back to his old self.

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The problem is Joc Pederson's "old self" is only about 2 weeks per season. He's a career .237/.338/.460 with .798 OPS. He hasn't topped 30 HR in 7 years (and only did it once), he hasn't cracked 20 doubles in 8 years. He has a career 14.4 WAR. He had more Ks than HR+2B+RBI+BB this year

If Heim isn't a big league hitter anymore, then Joc Pederson isn't even a AAA hitter

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Love your passion. If you need help loading the heroin into Pederson's trunk, let me know.

Heim's 2023 is looking like an outlier. Most people are in agreement that Pederson had an absolutely awful season and started in such a hole that he couldn't get out of it by the end of the year. All that said, he still had a higher OPS than Heim.

I'd give Pederson time early next year to see if he is closer to the guy we saw in August, but I'm not here to convince anyone differently that's ready to shoot him off into the sun after this year. I'm good with moving on from Heim after how he's looked the last 2 seasons.

Here are MLBTR's Arbitration projections for 2026:

• Jonah Heim (5.097): $6MM
• Adolis Garcia (5.095): $12.1MM
• Josh Sborz (5.055): $1.1MM
• Jacob Webb (5.046): $2MM
• Sam Haggerty (5.007): $1.4MM
• Josh Smith (3.129): $3MM
• Jake Burger (3.127): $3.5MM
• Ezequiel Duran (3.050): $1.4MM
• Josh Jung (3.023): $2.9MM

agent-maroon said:

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Sometimes you're just born with a bad back. Trust me on this...

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Yep. Had vertebra fused at the ripe old age of 19. It doesn't bother me too much as long as I dont do anything to strenuous but just a little activity will irritate it.

I'm 50 now and 25 years in the oil field didnt help anything. I can't image the toll baseball is taking on his back.

A lot of times back issues can be genetic, like degenerative discs, etc. then you throw a sport on it and you end up like half of us.

I already had some degenerative discs, and then herniated two of them in my lower back dead lifting about as bad as humanly possible. Did about two to three months of PT to be able to walk normal again. I'll never be the same.

Wilson gone.

https://www.mlb.com/news/bobby-wilson-rangers-coaching-staff-2026

Any one watching Philly/LA? Dave Roberts is letting Kershaw wear this one. I dont blame him at this point but it sucks for Kershaw.

It was a tough watch, but Kershaw took one for the team.

You could tell fromnhus delivery early, it wasn't going to be a good night for him.

DallasAg 94 said:

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It was a tough watch, but Kershaw took one for the team.

You could tell fromnhus delivery early, it wasn't going to be a good night for him.

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He took it like a champ. Hate it for him. They were still close when he came in but just didn't have it tonight.

Kershaw had a GREAT career… hate to see that tonight.

On to Rangers…. I know Schwarber isnt leaving Philly but dang what a 4 holeguy he could be here…. and i tag onto my earlier post about Luiz Arraez at 1st.
J smith
seager
arraez
Schwarber
Adolis(i know he is probably gone)
Langford
Semien
Carter
Catcher

I realize i left a few currently rostered guys off the lineup but Im trying to better the team with someone elses money

Arraez has show the same decline over the past 3 years that the Rangers have had.

OPS+
'22, '23, 2024, 2025
128, 128, 107, 99

BA
.316, .354, 314, .292

Articles I've read predict he will get less than you might think because he is 28 and his numbers are already declining.

I still think Freeman (24) can be that role with more pop.

Note: Arraez is listed as 5'10 and Freeman is listed 5'8".

Arraez is really a DH and a liability at 1B. Freeman can play 3B, utility IF, and to a lesser degree, an occasional OF.

We already have 29 players on the 40 that will be squeezed to 26.
We have 6 Util guys: Osuna, Freeman, Duran, Helman, Haggerty, and Josh Smith.

Langford-Carter-Garcia, as a projected OF

Smith is a given. Super Util. Possible 3B if we trade Jung. Possible LF, if Carter a no-go.

Who does Arraez replace if we pay him $10-15M+

Jung, Garcia, and Heim are bubbles, but requires a C if no Heim.

They tried Freeman at C, ala IKF, but abandoned it.