DannyDuberstein said:
Hate giving free outs regardless. Ask any pitcher, they'll gladly take your sacrifice. Runner on 2nd with 0 outs has a 60-65% chance of scoring. 3rd with 1 out has 30-35%. Swing away, especially if you have a lineup like the Jays and not full of contact small ballers. Outs are so valuable.
This is not true.
The runs matrix is a 63% chance of at least one run (really 37% chance of nothing) with no outs and a man on 2B.
It's a 67% chance of at least one run (again really 33% chance of nothing) with 1 out and a man on 3B.
2B needs a hit. You trade the hit for extra things like a sac fly, a deeper ground ball that can only be an out at 1B, a hit past a drawn in IF that is normally an out, a WP or PB, a balk or anything even more bizarre.
And you can sac bunt. Squeeze or safety.
They had to have 1 run. Sure 2 wins the series but you have to plate one or it's done. Maximize the chances of scoring 1 run.
If you are playing for a big inning the out is dumb. I agree. But if you are playing for just 1 run it's actually a wash or a slight advantage.