I can't PM but drop me an email ew1492 at g mail
Interested if still available
Interested if still available
What did an ounce of silver cost in Weimar German Marks?AggieT said:
What does an ounce of silver cost in dollars?
Hypothetical...Quote:
During the Weimar Republic's hyperinflation in the early 1920s, the price of silver, and other assets like gold, skyrocketed. In January 1919, one ounce of silver was worth around 12 Deutsche Marks. By the end of 1923, that same ounce of silver was worth 543,750,000,000 Deutsche Marks (543.75 billion). This demonstrates the extreme rate of inflation experienced during this period.
Quote:
During the USA's hyperinflation in the mid 2020s, the price of silver, and other assets like gold, skyrocketed. In January 2025, one ounce of silver was worth around 32 US Dollars. By the end of 2029, that same ounce of silver was worth ???? US Dollars (????). This demonstrates the extreme rate of inflation experienced during this period.
We aren't returning to the days of transacting in metals.TTUArmy said:
Hypothetical...
The US dollar has gone the way of Weimar and BTC went with it because it was considered a derivative of the failed dollar and no one wants to trade in 1's and 0's anyway.
What does a 50 lbs. bag of pinto beans cost in silver? What does an 8-hr day of manual labor net in silver for the average American with a high school education, no technical skills, and no degree?
I hope I'm alive when Americans come to understand the actual definition of hyperinflation.TTUArmy said:Quote:
During the USA's hyperinflation in the mid 2020s, the price of silver, and other assets like gold, skyrocketed.
Completely agree, and if we tried to, it would be an unmitigated disaster. As we discovered in the past, there is simply not enough metal to support a modern economy. The shift to fiat currency did not cause our current deficits; deficit spending by Congress did.Quote:
We aren't returning to the days of transacting in metals.
I'm sure there were a few doomers in Weimar that were probably saying or thinking the same thing in 1919.HarleySpoon said:I hope I'm alive when Americans come to understand the actual definition of hyperinflation.TTUArmy said:Quote:
During the USA's hyperinflation in the mid 2020s, the price of silver, and other assets like gold, skyrocketed.
The velocity of money would certainly come to a screeching halt.KingofHazor said:Completely agree, and if we tried to, it would be an unmitigated disaster. As we discovered in the past, there is simply not enough metal to support a modern economy. The shift to fiat currency did not cause our current deficits; deficit spending by Congress did.Quote:
We aren't returning to the days of transacting in metals.
Maybe not, H-A. I was trying to think through the process of how we transition to metals as money again if the dollar is reduced to toilet paper. We think in terms of paper dollars when we place value on something. But, what if the metric we use to place value on something is suddenly reduced to vapor?Heineken-Ashi said:We aren't returning to the days of transacting in metals.TTUArmy said:
Hypothetical...
The US dollar has gone the way of Weimar and BTC went with it because it was considered a derivative of the failed dollar and no one wants to trade in 1's and 0's anyway.
What does a 50 lbs. bag of pinto beans cost in silver? What does an 8-hr day of manual labor net in silver for the average American with a high school education, no technical skills, and no degree?
Metals should be thought of as a wealth PRESERVATION tool, not a currency. While everyone else would be crying about their equity portfolio declines, your wealth would be tied up in the longest running store of value in history, ready for the deflation cycle to end and the next long-term inflation cycle to begin, at which point you would rotate some back into risk assets.
Government and voters have certainly played their part in the dollar's demise. I'm not giving central banks a pass though. They've made it very easy to fund wars and entanglements...among a score of other things which allow humans to explore their base desires; perceived comfort, safety, and freedom among them...for the low low price of yearly 2% inflation. Central banks aren't without sin, have received their pound of flesh, and then some. The devil is always in the details...KingofHazor said:
During the Napoleonic wars, England experienced an economic boon. Yet, it had a terrible time financing those wars because of a shortage of metallic currency. Eventually, folks tried to get around that problem by printing metal "certificates", but governments then found that they could inflate those by devaluing them. And even without paper certificates, ancient governments devalued metallic currency by mixing in cheaper metals.
The problem isn't our currency. It's our political leaders and the voters who refuse to hold them accountable.
And if the dollar does vaporize, the government will simply replace it with a new dollar. Countries have universally done the same since the advent of paper currency.
We absolutely will go back to transacting in some form of metals based financial instrument….it will eventually be a promise (probably electronic) by an institution in which the citizens have confidence that their financial instrument is backed by a real asset….easiest one being metal. That entity might be a government institution….but it very may well not be if a government cannot restore its citizens faith in a non-fiat currency.Heineken-Ashi said:We aren't returning to the days of transacting in metals.TTUArmy said:
Hypothetical...
The US dollar has gone the way of Weimar and BTC went with it because it was considered a derivative of the failed dollar and no one wants to trade in 1's and 0's anyway.
What does a 50 lbs. bag of pinto beans cost in silver? What does an 8-hr day of manual labor net in silver for the average American with a high school education, no technical skills, and no degree?
oklaunion said:
Maybe not, H-A. I was trying to think through the process of how we transition to metals as money again if the dollar is reduced to toilet paper. We think in terms of paper dollars when we place value on something. But, what if the metric we use to place value on something is suddenly reduced to vapor?
Read Patriots by Rawles.
If precious metals really do begin to threaten "the monetary system", I suspect the powers that be will begin to invent regulations which tamp down the enthusiasm surrounding said commodities; much like it did during the silver run-up of the 80's.Heineken-Ashi said:We aren't returning to the days of transacting in metals.TTUArmy said:
Hypothetical...
The US dollar has gone the way of Weimar and BTC went with it because it was considered a derivative of the failed dollar and no one wants to trade in 1's and 0's anyway.
What does a 50 lbs. bag of pinto beans cost in silver? What does an 8-hr day of manual labor net in silver for the average American with a high school education, no technical skills, and no degree?
Metals should be thought of as a wealth PRESERVATION tool, not a currency. While everyone else would be crying about their equity portfolio declines, your wealth would be tied up in the longest running store of value in history, ready for the deflation cycle to end and the next long-term inflation cycle to begin, at which point you would rotate some back into risk assets.
The only way we get back to a metals backed fiat is through a depression. Would likely have to coincide with ending the federal reserve and the people taking back the power to print and control the money supply, as well as complete reset of the global financial order. While I can't rule it out, defaulting to that position is risky.HarleySpoon said:We absolutely will go back to transacting in some form of metals based financial instrument….it will eventually be a promise (probably electronic) by an institution in which the citizens have confidence that their financial instrument is backed by a real asset….easiest one being metal. That entity might be a government institution….but it very may well not be if a government cannot restore its citizens faith in a non-fiat currency.Heineken-Ashi said:We aren't returning to the days of transacting in metals.TTUArmy said:
Hypothetical...
The US dollar has gone the way of Weimar and BTC went with it because it was considered a derivative of the failed dollar and no one wants to trade in 1's and 0's anyway.
What does a 50 lbs. bag of pinto beans cost in silver? What does an 8-hr day of manual labor net in silver for the average American with a high school education, no technical skills, and no degree?
I hope I am incorrect…I pray you are correct….but the recent history of fiat currency all the way back to the ancient history of devalued metal currency would make it hard to convince me. Folks just won't pretend to have confidence when many others do not have confidence in a currency…and confidence once lost is ten times harder to rebuild. Confidence meaning…confidence that the financial instrument will retain its value and not inflate away.
Depends on what how you define "defaulting to that position." One can believe it's a significant risk without arranging ones affairs as if it were a certainty.Heineken-Ashi said:The only way we get back to a metals backed fiat is through a depression. Would likely have to coincide with ending the federal reserve and the people taking back the power to print and control the money supply, as well as complete reset of the global financial order. While I can't rule it out, defaulting to that position is risky.HarleySpoon said:We absolutely will go back to transacting in some form of metals based financial instrument….it will eventually be a promise (probably electronic) by an institution in which the citizens have confidence that their financial instrument is backed by a real asset….easiest one being metal. That entity might be a government institution….but it very may well not be if a government cannot restore its citizens faith in a non-fiat currency.Heineken-Ashi said:We aren't returning to the days of transacting in metals.TTUArmy said:
Hypothetical...
The US dollar has gone the way of Weimar and BTC went with it because it was considered a derivative of the failed dollar and no one wants to trade in 1's and 0's anyway.
What does a 50 lbs. bag of pinto beans cost in silver? What does an 8-hr day of manual labor net in silver for the average American with a high school education, no technical skills, and no degree?
I hope I am incorrect…I pray you are correct….but the recent history of fiat currency all the way back to the ancient history of devalued metal currency would make it hard to convince me. Folks just won't pretend to have confidence when many others do not have confidence in a currency…and confidence once lost is ten times harder to rebuild. Confidence meaning…confidence that the financial instrument will retain its value and not inflate away.
SLV - This trade was split into 13 tranches so far today. Definitely an institution wanting to mask their intent, so they broke the trade up into tranches and sent to different exchanges. January $35/$50 call spread. I added all 13 tranches together to show just today's position. They were about 80-90% of today's volume on those strikes, but 20-30% of existing open interest, signaling that this likely isn't a 1st time entry on this trade. Paid the ask mostly on the $35's and bid mostly on the $50's. I would likely conclude they are layering further into an existing position rather than starting a new one. Will watch and see if they hit it again tomorrow.Red Pear Realty said:
Boy I sure wish something exciting would happen soon.
GuiltyHeineken-Ashi said:
Somebody is very bullish silver.
jagvocate said:
Silver put its track shoes on in the wee hours of this morning
FireAg said:
The coins I bought in the upper $20s are looking like a smart move today…
It's been a great day. But I bought some July $31 protective puts on 1/3 of my shares. If it breaks out higher, I'll just load the same amount of calls to offset them or potentially just buy more shares on confirmed breakout. I noticed a very interesting fractal pattern that is playing out perfectly with the beginning of the Oct 2023-Oct 2024 move up. So I'm going to be a little cautious until this invalidates or we get $28-$29 again. IF WE DO GET THAT, it's very likely its the last gentlemen's entry.TTUArmy said:
H-A has to be killing it today in paper silver.
The bolded above is where I've seen premiums for physical metals get really distorted. If you're selling, you get offered way back of spot. If you're buying, you're paying way north of spot. I'd rather see some price floors and periods of consolidation get built in on the way up; rather than these 4th of July fireworks followed by the usual 5th of July hangover.Heineken-Ashi said:
And I've said this before, but I'll say it again. The move that precedes the top in the metals complex usually happens with silver vastly outperforming gold. Sometimes even completely rocketing over the span of mere months. Metals miners would take off too. You'd see retail piling in to all metals.. gold likely moving up marginally. Since gold is now considered "expensive" and silver is thought of as "lagging", silver really plays catch up. Copper too. But if you see this happen, with the gold to silver ratio falling as both move up, it's very likely the next top precedes a VERY large and likely long in time bear market for metals.
I would never sell my physical. Those dollars are a sunk cost as far as the metals value in dollars. But any paper positions should be unloaded with Silver over $40.
You know people are sick of silver dog-assing around when they start unloading monster boxes on their agent to pay for home insurance premiums.The Silverback said:
I have a sealed Monster Box of 2024 Silver Eagles for sale if anyone is interested?
Will sell for $19,800 and can be picked up in person in Austin. Text me if interested 5 1 2 seven 89 31 31