On 5/29 he said he bought back in to VOO. So sold everything 2/27, bought back 5/29. Sold at 5463, bought back around 5417, so did buy back in slightly below where he sold.
I sold every stock I own but one and went to cash
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Last: 11 days ago by Mr.Milkshake
He was wise to sell when he did. The market was at an extreme risk point. As long as he bought back below where he sold, he's likely better off than most.techno-ag said:
14 people starred the OP too so apparently some agreed with his assessment.
Those who reduced risk when he did and bought the bottom are likely WAY better than those who just held, or held and bought the bottom.
That strategy is not for everyone, and most literally have no way of identifying periods of significant risk or significant opportunity. So buy and hold forever works for most. But there will be a time when it wont. Wish I knew when that would be. Currently, the market is at an extreme resistance point. But it can reset with any combination of price retracement, time, or a combo of both. Meaning the market could crash to 5500 Monday and then resume back up and be set up for 6500+. It could also go flat for a month maybe with a very minor retracement and have the same setup. It could also crash hard to a new low. I'm not saying it's likely, but go look at SPX in 2000, 2007, 2018, and 2020 to see times when it made new highs only to fall to new lows. My base case is that we get a sizeable retracement and then target high 6000's into the fall and maybe winter. But no matter what, I still think this market ultimately finds its way back to 3500 over the coming years. It would take a lot to change my view on that. For that reason, I am still very risk averse and will likely remain that way the rest of the year unless we get a clean corrective retracement below 5700. At that point, I would likely invest into that bottom looking for 700-1000pts over the following 3-6 months.
Everyone has different strategies and risk tolerance. My views are not shared by many. And that's ok. I do well with mine. But I would advise against lambasting anyone who has the stones to make a big call and post transparently about it. If nothing else, take it was a view into a market sentiment you don't share. It's always nice to know where different participants are.
bam02 said:techno-ag said:
14 people starred the OP too so apparently some agreed with his assessment.
Yeah, there were no shortage of people who claim the sky was gonna fall because of the tariffs. I know this. They can all be contributors to the newsletter.
They still do. Listen to CNBC sometime. They hype negative on tariffs and/or Trump every five minutes or so.
"Yeah we're in record territory but it's all gonna crash second half because tariffs!"
Eventually there will be corrections like HA says, no doubt. But the constant fear mongering and unwillingness to accept that the economy is not doing too bad right now is more political in nature than reasonable analysis, imo.
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Heineken-Ashi said:He was wise to sell when he did. The market was at an extreme risk point. As long as he bought back below where he sold, he's likely better off than most.techno-ag said:
14 people starred the OP too so apparently some agreed with his assessment.
Those who reduced risk when he did and bought the bottom are likely WAY better than those who just held, or held and bought the bottom.
That strategy is not for everyone, and most literally have no way of identifying periods of significant risk or significant opportunity. So buy and hold forever works for most. But there will be a time when it wont. Wish I knew when that would be. Currently, the market is at an extreme resistance point. But it can reset with any combination of price retracement, time, or a combo of both. Meaning the market could crash to 5500 Monday and then resume back up and be set up for 6500+. It could also go flat for a month maybe with a very minor retracement and have the same setup. It could also crash hard to a new low. I'm not saying it's likely, but go look at SPX in 2000, 2007, 2018, and 2020 to see times when it made new highs only to fall to new lows. My base case is that we get a sizeable retracement and then target high 6000's into the fall and maybe winter. But no matter what, I still think this market ultimately finds its way back to 3500 over the coming years. It would take a lot to change my view on that. For that reason, I am still very risk averse and will likely remain that way the rest of the year unless we get a clean corrective retracement below 5700. At that point, I would likely invest into that bottom looking for 700-1000pts over the following 3-6 months.
Everyone has different strategies and risk tolerance. My views are not shared by many. And that's ok. I do well with mine. But I would advise against lambasting anyone who has the stones to make a big call and post transparently about it. If nothing else, take it was a view into a market sentiment you don't share. It's always nice to know where different participants are.
The 45% drop you are predicting is a pretty big call.
I don't know about the rest of you but I'm 100% equity and am ahead of my Jan 1 start. I would be a lot further ahead had my largest position not been AAPL but so far no complaints. If the Fed ever decides to cut I think the year will be decent. Trump still has a chance to screw things up but for now, no big complaints.
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
What gives you that impression?LIVAggies098 said:
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
You didn't learn anything after reading this thread?
Probably 90% of that can identify these periods are in Congress.Quote:
That strategy is not for everyone, and most literally have no way of identifying periods of significant risk or significant opportunity.
ToucheApache said:Probably 90% of that can identify these periods are in Congress.Quote:
That strategy is not for everyone, and most literally have no way of identifying periods of significant risk or significant opportunity.
OP could go all in on BRK.B and say he still came out ahead
South Platte said:What gives you that impression?LIVAggies098 said:
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
He might make bank if Powell cuts 100bps to save his job later this month
Quote:
[color=#000000]I don't know about the rest of you but I'm 100% equity and am ahead of my Jan 1 start. I would be a lot further ahead had my largest position not been AAPL but so far no complaints[/color]
Right there with you. I too am 100% invested in equities. AAPL has seen better days, imo. I've been trimming my position but I still own a chunk.
Grateful that I'm ahead of the S&P YTD though, thanks to COOP, NVDA, and AVGO.
permabull said:South Platte said:LIVAggies098 said:
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
What gives you that impression?
He might make bank if Powell cuts 100bps to save his job later this month
Stocks should shoot up if there is a 100bp cut - how would that help someone in bonds/CDs?
permabull said:South Platte said:What gives you that impression?LIVAggies098 said:
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
He might make bank if Powell cuts 100bps to save his job later this month
I suspect it's personal with Powell. He'd rather sink the country's economy than help Trump. The reductions right before the election to try and help the Democrats, combined with his refusal to budge after Trump won smacks of partisanship.
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b0ridi said:permabull said:South Platte said:LIVAggies098 said:
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
What gives you that impression?
He might make bank if Powell cuts 100bps to save his job later this month
Stocks should shoot up if there is a 100bp cut - how would that help someone in bonds/CDs?
If you lock bonds in at higher interest rates before the drop, once rates drop you can sell the bonds at a premium
LIVAggies098 said:
moved majority of my assets to bonds, CDs, etc. the returns are tough to watch but im under impression a correction is coming
Didnt we already see a correction a few months ago?? The market was down 19% in April. The market was down 10% last year. The market was down over 20% in 2022-2023. The market dropped 34% in 2020 during Covid. But it has recovered and then some every single time.
The point is theres always another "correction" coming. Unless you are about to retire or are retired already, who cares, just keep buying and ignore the noise.
Buy the dip.
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If OP, bought back into the market in April then he made a very good trade. If he is still on the sidelines, then he might have made a mistake (considering he probably now has a cap gain taxes to pay)
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
Another all time high today.
Petrino1 said:
Another all time high today.
Bulls on Parade...
I Roth converted $30k of VOO from my rollover IRA after liberation day... Now I wish I did twice that!
Heine back it again with the market crash predictions. This time…."in the coming years".
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