I sold every stock I own but one and went to cash

50,068 Views | 339 Replies | Last: 14 days ago by Mr.Milkshake
Proposition Joe
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Pretty much this... It was mentioned on an earlier page of this thread I believe... But if you are in your 40's/50's sitting on $10M and the market drops 50% over a few years, that alters your way of life pretty significantly.

But if that $10M jumps 50% over a few years to $15M... There's a decent chance your way of life isn't actually improved that much.

It's not about having the biggest number, it's about improving your quality of life. Those two things don't go up or down at the same rate.
newbie11
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infinity ag said:

bmoochie said:

He clearly outlined his plan and his age factors into wanting to be less risk on. Quit being a *****

Another internet bully. Go pick on someone who is scared of you.

Going all cash is a dumb idea unless one is 100 years old.


Agree. IMO, there are too many built in reasons for the markets to continue higher over the long term. Mainly constantcash inflows from retirement accounts and 401k. Fund managers have to beat the indexes they're compared to or they lose their bonuses and their kids won't get the gi joe with the kung fu grip.

Market timing can't be done by the experts, there's no way I can do it (and I've proven that over 30 years), so I don't bother anymore.

Richest guy I know (net worth like $40-50 mil) invested and continues to invest heavily in tech because he believes the world can't run without it. Every innovation that the world and people need is tech based, etc etc.

Only in the last decade did he 'derisk' and start investing in rental properties in AZ.
knoxtom
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I bought some VOO last night based on the court decision. I didn't go all the way back in, but I put some cash holdings back.

A couple months ago when I sold everything I had sold VOO at 537.89 and bought back last night at 542ish, so I didn't miss out much, almost a wash. Still not ready to go back into the market full force, and I am still holding a lot of bitcoin.

Good thing is that when I sold all of my stocks I put a lot into bitcoin at $83120. So this has been a great year so far.
flashplayer
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AG
So you really weren't de-risking then like you made it seem. Glad it worked out for you, but it mainly worked out because the market as a whole ripped off that low and took BTC with it.

Takes your message from I got worried and took all the risk out to hey I'm a great market timer and sold everything only to buy the dip.
infinity ag
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newbie11 said:

infinity ag said:

bmoochie said:

He clearly outlined his plan and his age factors into wanting to be less risk on. Quit being a *****

Another internet bully. Go pick on someone who is scared of you.

Going all cash is a dumb idea unless one is 100 years old.


Agree. IMO, there are too many built in reasons for the markets to continue higher over the long term. Mainly constantcash inflows from retirement accounts and 401k. Fund managers have to beat the indexes they're compared to or they lose their bonuses and their kids won't get the gi joe with the kung fu grip.

Market timing can't be done by the experts, there's no way I can do it (and I've proven that over 30 years), so I don't bother anymore.

Richest guy I know (net worth like $40-50 mil) invested and continues to invest heavily in tech because he believes the world can't run without it. Every innovation that the world and people need is tech based, etc etc.

Only in the last decade did he 'derisk' and start investing in rental properties in AZ.

I liked the insight you provided up (I bolded it). Fund Managers have to show their performance every quarter or else they are kicked out, so they are chasing short term gains to make their numbers. They cannot afford to buy and forget like the rest of us can with longer timeframes. Which is why they hug the indexes and we have more chance to beat it.

I invest in tech as well and that has paid off well.

As I get older, I will reduce the risk I take gradually. Still need to figure out the details. I will never be in all cash. This Feb/March crash made me uncomfortable as I had not much in cash lying around so I sold 1 years expenses worth and put them in CDs and SPAXX. Now the market can gyrate all it wants and I am good. Every day is a new learning!
GoAgs92
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AG
GoAgs92 said:

Poor OP?

Poor me, I am still down $35K.



Whooo...Back in Black!
Mr.Milkshake
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bmoochie said:

one safe place said:

knoxtom said:

But there is an equal or greater chance of serious drops in the markets, like I see a 30% to 50% drop.



lol


Curious if you're still laughing?


Up 1,000 points since this. $50k on an ES contract. Would bet he is laughing.
EliteZags
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AG
Officially up 7 figures since the early 2023 bottom
Ghost of Bisbee
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Proposition Joe said:

Pretty much this... It was mentioned on an earlier page of this thread I believe... But if you are in your 40's/50's sitting on $10M and the market drops 50% over a few years, that alters your way of life pretty significantly.

But if that $10M jumps 50% over a few years to $15M... There's a decent chance your way of life isn't actually improved that much.

It's not about having the biggest number, it's about improving your quality of life. Those two things don't go up or down at the same rate.


Can you elaborate?
Proposition Joe
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Ghost of Bisbee said:

Proposition Joe said:

Pretty much this... It was mentioned on an earlier page of this thread I believe... But if you are in your 40's/50's sitting on $10M and the market drops 50% over a few years, that alters your way of life pretty significantly.

But if that $10M jumps 50% over a few years to $15M... There's a decent chance your way of life isn't actually improved that much.

It's not about having the biggest number, it's about improving your quality of life. Those two things don't go up or down at the same rate.


Can you elaborate?

I view it like this. If you're 40 and have $10M net worth, you're set. You've accumulated enough money that reasonably you don't have to do a thing. Sure, there's always a higher class airline seat or more luxury vacations to take, but $10M with conservative investing at that age means you and your wife can retire in a nice million dollar house with plenty of room, have kids schooling (through college) paid for, take nice vacations and still have plenty of money left over to do just about anything a reasonable person could want to do.

If you aggressively invest that and it jumps to $15M, that's not going to change any of the above. You'll have more money, but you'll ultimately need to seek out things to spend it on. Not a bad problem to have, but the flip side...

If you aggressively invest that and it dips to $5M... Now you're still fine, don't get me wrong, but once you factor in house, kids education, vacations, etc... then the draw on that doesn't necessarily get you immediate retirement. The "game" so to speak isn't going to be that hard for you to finish out, but you're not done.

In short - more money is great, but after a certain age/wealth (in this example 40/$10M), the upside benefit of even moderately aggressive investing doesn't overcome the downside risk.
Kenneth_2003
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Proposition Joe said:

Ghost of Bisbee said:

Proposition Joe said:

Pretty much this... It was mentioned on an earlier page of this thread I believe... But if you are in your 40's/50's sitting on $10M and the market drops 50% over a few years, that alters your way of life pretty significantly.

But if that $10M jumps 50% over a few years to $15M... There's a decent chance your way of life isn't actually improved that much.

It's not about having the biggest number, it's about improving your quality of life. Those two things don't go up or down at the same rate.


Can you elaborate?

I view it like this. If you're 40 and have $10M net worth, you're set. You've accumulated enough money that reasonably you don't have to do a thing. Sure, there's always a higher class airline seat or more luxury vacations to take, but $10M with conservative investing at that age means you and your wife can retire in a nice million dollar house with plenty of room, have kids schooling (through college) paid for, take nice vacations and still have plenty of money left over to do just about anything a reasonable person could want to do.

If you aggressively invest that and it jumps to $15M, that's not going to change any of the above. You'll have more money, but you'll ultimately need to seek out things to spend it on. Not a bad problem to have, but the flip side...

If you aggressively invest that and it dips to $5M... Now you're still fine, don't get me wrong, but once you factor in house, kids education, vacations, etc... then the draw on that doesn't necessarily get you immediate retirement. The "game" so to speak isn't going to be that hard for you to finish out, but you're not done.

In short - more money is great, but after a certain age/wealth (in this example 40/$10M), the upside benefit of even moderately aggressive investing doesn't overcome the downside risk.


I'll add to this. $10 million to $15 million.
Both scenarios you can buy that place on the beach and that place in the mountains. Neither are going to buy you that 2000 acre horse ranch.
You'll fly business class on multiple overseas trips every year on either of those nest eggs, but you will not be in your own Gulf Stream or Challenger.
Yukon Cornelius
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AG
Hypothetically you're in that boat. What do you do with your 10M. Money market?
AM09
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Proposition Joe said:



If you're 40 and have $10M net worth, you're set.

All joking aside, this isn't a realistic benchmark right??

South Platte
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AM09 said:

Proposition Joe said:



If you're 40 and have $10M net worth, you're set.

All joking aside, this isn't a realistic benchmark right??


Sure hope not. At 40 and $2M, you're probably set if you manage expenses and invest wisely.
Proposition Joe
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Yukon Cornelius said:

Hypothetically you're in that boat. What do you do with your 10M. Money market?

Talk to a financial advisor or use ChatGPT and figure out what amount of money you need to set aside at a super conservative rate that takes care of what you need. House, retirement, kids, vacations.

Then what you have left is essentially what you can be aggressive with and use as play money (invest aggressively, invest in new businesses, buy fun ****, etc...) knowing that you've got your base and that if the "aggressive" money all goes bust, you're still set.
Proposition Joe
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AM09 said:

Proposition Joe said:



If you're 40 and have $10M net worth, you're set.

All joking aside, this isn't a realistic benchmark right??



Was just using it as an example of how there's a certain $$$ level that for most people the upside on average investments isn't worth the downside. $5M - $10M - $15M seemed like a good example as IMO for the average person that isn't interested in riding on jet planes and the like, the difference between $10M and $15M is negligible.

But the difference between $5M and $10M is not at that age. You could retire/lose-your-job at 40, but if you've got kids that $5M may not get you to the finish line in the shape you want to be.
Proposition Joe
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South Platte said:

AM09 said:

Proposition Joe said:



If you're 40 and have $10M net worth, you're set.

All joking aside, this isn't a realistic benchmark right??


Sure hope not. At 40 and $2M, you're probably set if you manage expenses and invest wisely.

You're set in the sense that if you keep doing what you're doing for another 15 years and the market doesn't have any black swan type event. But there's a marked difference at 40 between "set in 15 years as long as things go like they've been going" and "set right now and it doesn't matter what happens the next 50 years".
AgOutsideAustin
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AG
These threads…. There is wealthy and then there is Texags wealthy……..
Pacifico
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I hope everyone on this thread gets to their I am wealthy number sooner than later. Then you will start to understand money does not make you happy.
permabull
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AG
Even I thought the bear call would finally be right this time. Glad I stuck to my principles.
Tumble Weed
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Pacifico said:

I hope everyone on this thread gets to their I am wealthy number sooner than later. Then you will start to understand money does not make you happy.
Horace understood what you are trying to convey.

Book 1 Satire 1

Though you've threshed a hundred thousand measures of corn

That won't make your stomach hold any more than mine


...

It's as if though you needed no more than a jug of water,


Or a single cup, you said: 'I'd rather have the same amount

From some vast river rather than this little spring.' That's why

Raging Aufidus sweeps away riverbanks, and all those

Who delight in owning more than their fair share of wealth.

But the man who desires only as much as he needs,

Won't drink muddy water, or lose his life in the flood.
Petrino1
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New all time highs in the market today. The market has been on a tear lately. I wonder how the OP is feeling about selling.
BoydCrowder13
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Petrino1 said:

New all time highs in the market today. The market has been on a tear lately. I wonder how the OP is feeling about selling.


Up 6% since his post. With a 20% correction in the middle. Crazy 4 months.
wessimo
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AG
wessimo said:

Update - S&P 500

2/27/25 - 5862
5/12/25 - 5844 (updated at market close)




6/27/25 - 6164
techno-ag
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AG
Proposition Joe said:

Ghost of Bisbee said:

Proposition Joe said:

Pretty much this... It was mentioned on an earlier page of this thread I believe... But if you are in your 40's/50's sitting on $10M and the market drops 50% over a few years, that alters your way of life pretty significantly.

But if that $10M jumps 50% over a few years to $15M... There's a decent chance your way of life isn't actually improved that much.

It's not about having the biggest number, it's about improving your quality of life. Those two things don't go up or down at the same rate.


Can you elaborate?

I view it like this. If you're 40 and have $10M net worth, you're set. You've accumulated enough money that reasonably you don't have to do a thing. Sure, there's always a higher class airline seat or more luxury vacations to take, but $10M with conservative investing at that age means you and your wife can retire in a nice million dollar house with plenty of room, have kids schooling (through college) paid for, take nice vacations and still have plenty of money left over to do just about anything a reasonable person could want to do.

If you aggressively invest that and it jumps to $15M, that's not going to change any of the above. You'll have more money, but you'll ultimately need to seek out things to spend it on. Not a bad problem to have, but the flip side...

If you aggressively invest that and it dips to $5M... Now you're still fine, don't get me wrong, but once you factor in house, kids education, vacations, etc... then the draw on that doesn't necessarily get you immediate retirement. The "game" so to speak isn't going to be that hard for you to finish out, but you're not done.

In short - more money is great, but after a certain age/wealth (in this example 40/$10M), the upside benefit of even moderately aggressive investing doesn't overcome the downside risk.


Don't wear yourself out trying to get rich.
Be wise enough to know when to quit.
In the blink of an eye wealth disappears,
for it will sprout wings
and fly away like an eagle.

Proverbs 23:4-5 (NLT)
Pro College Station Convention Center
Pacifico
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AG
Tumble Weed said:

Pacifico said:

I hope everyone on this thread gets to their I am wealthy number sooner than later. Then you will start to understand money does not make you happy.
Horace understood what you are trying to convey.

Book 1 Satire 1

Though you've threshed a hundred thousand measures of corn

That won't make your stomach hold any more than mine


...

It's as if though you needed no more than a jug of water,


Or a single cup, you said: 'I'd rather have the same amount

From some vast river rather than this little spring.' That's why

Raging Aufidus sweeps away riverbanks, and all those

Who delight in owning more than their fair share of wealth.

But the man who desires only as much as he needs,

Won't drink muddy water, or lose his life in the flood.
Thanks for connecting me with Horace. Didn't see that coming. That's exactly what I'm trying to say.
Aston04
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AG
Good call, op.
ktownag08
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BoydCrowder13 said:

Petrino1 said:

New all time highs in the market today. The market has been on a tear lately. I wonder how the OP is feeling about selling.


Up 6% since his post. With a 20% correction in the middle. Crazy 4 months.


Bought that dip "bigly" as they say just in SPY...

$$$
aggiepaintrain
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AG
So he sold at the top and re-bought at the bottom.
What's the next move ?
Petrino1
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Another market all time high today!
bam02
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AG
OP do you have a what not to do newsletter I can subscribe to?
techno-ag
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AG
14 people starred the OP too so apparently some agreed with his assessment.
Pro College Station Convention Center
txaggie_08
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aggiepaintrain said:

So he sold at the top and re-bought at the bottom.
What's the next move ?

He sold near the top, but by time he bought back in he was already in a worse position. Add to that any tax hits he may have taken if he was selling in a brokerage account.

Talk about a perfect lesson for why you don't try to time the market.
bam02
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AG
techno-ag said:

14 people starred the OP too so apparently some agreed with his assessment.


Yeah, there were no shortage of people who claim the sky was gonna fall because of the tariffs. I know this. They can all be contributors to the newsletter.
Yukon Cornelius
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AG
He bought back in?
 
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