Vanguard and Fidelity money market accounts, are those high exposure??...and I'm 51.
I sold every stock I own but one and went to cash
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Last: 11 days ago by Mr.Milkshake
Ensign Mayo said:
Vanguard and Fidelity money market accounts, are those high exposure??...and I'm 51.
I keep my cash in VMFXX primarily. But I'm not one of the smart ones on here. I just chose that because it's the suggestion I got from several guys a lot smarter than me.
Fidelity SPAXX - 1 year 4.58%
DJ - 1 year 4.43%
S&P 500 - 1 year 5.26%
DJ - 1 year 4.43%
S&P 500 - 1 year 5.26%
HECUBUS said:
Fidelity SPAXX - 1 year 4.58%
DJ - 1 year 4.43%
S&P 500 - 1 year 5.26%
I see the Fidelity money market but are you talking yearly returns on whole index stocks on the others or what? Not sure I understand what you were referencing.
And thanks for the SPAXX suggestion I will look into that as well.
I cashed out on GLD. It was a great run.Tumble Weed said:
I posted last week (2/21) on the stock trading thread that I though the top for the year was in for the S&P 500.
I bought GLD, which has also dropped in value since I bought it. I expect gold to perform better than the S&P 500 this year.
Stock Markets - Page 6797 | TexAgs
if I was going to bail to cash...today seems like a good day to do it.
Really why? I bought back in 2 days ago. Honestly anything mr president says will change the market
Heineken-Ashi said:absolutely - fully agree. That's why the "you can never time the market, just DCA and pray" is not helpful to anyone. That's not a strategy. There's no targets. There's no invalidation level. Even if long term trading, that's assuming nothing but risk, no matter how much you think stocks only go up. The OP outlined exactly why he thought it was best to exit the market. And was successful, despite taking nothing but snark from everyone. The people trying to dunk on him yesterday, with a historic move in the market that is only rivaled by BEAR MARKET BOUNCES during some of the worst years for the market in history including 1929, 1932, 2008, and 2020, are ridiculous. He sold near the highs and can now buy back when he sees fit. The market dropped 1200 pts this year, and people are trying to make fun of the guy that missed it. It's wild.Aglaw97 said:I enjoy reading what everyone brings to these forums as they continue to educate me even if, after 30 years of investing, I believe I have a pretty good strategy that works for me. But I'll never understand why people get emotional about other's investing strategies and act like it's a zero sum game where someone has to be wrong and the other right.Heineken-Ashi said:Is recognizing extremely risky and overbought market conditions and selling market timing?txaggie_08 said:Quote:
If I were a market timer I would have been trying to get a daily swing. I said before in this very thread that I am not worried about daily ups and downs, I am looking at Trump's overall policies and saying it is going down over the long term.
Would I have loved to have bought 2 days ago, rode robinhood up 20% yesterday, and sold today? Of course, but that would be market timing and I am not trying to do that. Do I think we will be lower 6 months from now than today? Yes. Daily changes are unimportant.
You are market timing, just on a longer time horizon.
Again, just because some of you lack the ability to buy low and sell high, thereby forcing you to just hold forever and hope for the best, doesn't mean everyone is that way.
People do what's best for them. Sometimes you make mistakes but you learn from them. That comes with age and experience. Lord knows I made plenty of mistakes back in the dot bom era and learned from them. I learned again from the experience of 2008.
And no, this comment isn't directed at anyone in particular. Just a reminder that we all try to stick to the facts to help each other. I recognize that's harder when money, politics and religion are involved and in today's world the first two are front a center.
You are R tarded with a capital R.
Wow! That escalated quickly!
Agree. OP made a good (and lucky) move. Nice job!
Too early to tell. Maybe, maybe not. We're only down roughly 5% right now.
Yeah I want to know if OP is still out of the market or started buying back in between the bottom and now.
I made some buys April 3 and will make some more within the next 5 trading days but I was only 45% cash when we started this slump earlier in the year.
I made some buys April 3 and will make some more within the next 5 trading days but I was only 45% cash when we started this slump earlier in the year.
He posted this yesterday in a different thread:
Quote:
Yes. 100% out. I do still own some bitcoin. 401k all in bonds.
And this is why market timing doesnt work. The market is up around 13% since April 8's bottom. The OP didnt buy any stocks during the bottom, and is missing the run up of the market the last few weeks.txaggie_08 said:
He posted this yesterday in a different thread:Quote:
Yes. 100% out. I do still own some bitcoin. 401k all in bonds.
This will likely be a very expensive financial mistake/lesson for the OP considering all the money he is missing out on by not being in the market right now. Market timers are supposed to know when the bottom is, buy more during the bottom, and ride the wave back up to be a successful market timer. But we all know that almost never happens.
Petrino1 said:And this is why market timing doesnt work. The market is up around 13% since April 8's bottom. The OP didnt buy any stocks during the bottom, and is missing the run up of the market the last few weeks.txaggie_08 said:
He posted this yesterday in a different thread:Quote:
Yes. 100% out. I do still own some bitcoin. 401k all in bonds.
This will likely be a very expensive financial mistake/lesson for the OP considering all the money he is missing out on by not being in the market right now. Market timers are supposed to know when the bottom is, buy more during the bottom, and ride the wave back up to be a successful market timer. But we all know that almost never happens.
Not endorsing anyone's decision to jump out of the market, but OP is still up somewhere around 3-4% since his decision.
"buying stocks during the bottom" is also market timing.
Selling everything is timing the market. If you have a knack to sell high and buy low consistently then do it.
I am not able to. I got lucky once in 2008 when I sold a week before the market tanked. Just pure luck.
This crash, I hung on. I did feel like I wanted to sell but I did not and it is coming back. I am still a good amount in the red for 2025 but it will recover.
Selling and then not buying when it is low seems like a dumb idea. I put $8k into my Roth IRA and bought today.
I am not able to. I got lucky once in 2008 when I sold a week before the market tanked. Just pure luck.
This crash, I hung on. I did feel like I wanted to sell but I did not and it is coming back. I am still a good amount in the red for 2025 but it will recover.
Selling and then not buying when it is low seems like a dumb idea. I put $8k into my Roth IRA and bought today.
He's not up when you factor in the huge tax bill.Proposition Joe said:Petrino1 said:And this is why market timing doesnt work. The market is up around 13% since April 8's bottom. The OP didnt buy any stocks during the bottom, and is missing the run up of the market the last few weeks.txaggie_08 said:
He posted this yesterday in a different thread:Quote:
Yes. 100% out. I do still own some bitcoin. 401k all in bonds.
This will likely be a very expensive financial mistake/lesson for the OP considering all the money he is missing out on by not being in the market right now. Market timers are supposed to know when the bottom is, buy more during the bottom, and ride the wave back up to be a successful market timer. But we all know that almost never happens.
Not endorsing anyone's decision to jump out of the market, but OP is still up somewhere around 3-4% since his decision.
"buying stocks during the bottom" is also market timing.
Unless I missed it, we don't know if this was pre-tax or post-tax money in his portfolio. You may be assuming facts not in evidence - if it's all in an IRA, there is NO tax bill.TxAG#2011 said:He's not up when you factor in the huge tax bill.Proposition Joe said:Petrino1 said:And this is why market timing doesnt work. The market is up around 13% since April 8's bottom. The OP didnt buy any stocks during the bottom, and is missing the run up of the market the last few weeks.txaggie_08 said:
He posted this yesterday in a different thread:Quote:
Yes. 100% out. I do still own some bitcoin. 401k all in bonds.
This will likely be a very expensive financial mistake/lesson for the OP considering all the money he is missing out on by not being in the market right now. Market timers are supposed to know when the bottom is, buy more during the bottom, and ride the wave back up to be a successful market timer. But we all know that almost never happens.
Not endorsing anyone's decision to jump out of the market, but OP is still up somewhere around 3-4% since his decision.
"buying stocks during the bottom" is also market timing.
I'm certainly not endorsing his approach, but at the end of the day, it's a personal risk tolerance question, and if you're spooked by leaving your money at work, it's not a terrible decision. Now, leaving it in cash for 5-10 years would be monumentally stupid, but I don't think that's his intent.
He says "regular trading account" which sounds like brokerage. Assuming long term and what it sounds like his income level is, he probably took a 20% tax hit right there.
He also mentions in OP that he "may" switch 401k to bonds. We find out later that he did in fact do this.
He also mentions in OP that he "may" switch 401k to bonds. We find out later that he did in fact do this.
I don't think either is "wrong" unless you jump out and then sit out too long (if it's pre-tax and you are not taking unnecessary hits there). But for me where my horizon is 5+ years to needing this $$$, I am in the stay in and ride it out mode. S&P is back to flat vs April 1
I'm out of US stocks for a few months. Way too many warning signs and little signs of sustainable increased upside given current valuations. I'll risk losing a few percent if the market rises rather than risk a substantial drop which seems inevitable later this year as the tariffs and the general uncertainty really start biting the economy.
Yes, exactly, which is what all market timers claim theyre going to do but then never do it. Most people are better off never selling and buying consistently through the ups and downs.Proposition Joe said:Petrino1 said:And this is why market timing doesnt work. The market is up around 13% since April 8's bottom. The OP didnt buy any stocks during the bottom, and is missing the run up of the market the last few weeks.txaggie_08 said:
He posted this yesterday in a different thread:Quote:
Yes. 100% out. I do still own some bitcoin. 401k all in bonds.
This will likely be a very expensive financial mistake/lesson for the OP considering all the money he is missing out on by not being in the market right now. Market timers are supposed to know when the bottom is, buy more during the bottom, and ride the wave back up to be a successful market timer. But we all know that almost never happens.
"buying stocks during the bottom" is also market timing.
At what price would you buy back in?AggieFrog said:
I'm out of US stocks for a few months. Way too many warning signs and little signs of sustainable increased upside given current valuations. I'll risk losing a few percent if the market rises rather than risk a substantial drop which seems inevitable later this year as the tariffs and the general uncertainty really start biting the economy.
Petrino1 said:Yes, exactly, which is what all market timers claim theyre going to do but then never do it. Most people are better off never selling and buying consistently through the ups and downs.Proposition Joe said:Petrino1 said:And this is why market timing doesnt work. The market is up around 13% since April 8's bottom. The OP didnt buy any stocks during the bottom, and is missing the run up of the market the last few weeks.txaggie_08 said:
He posted this yesterday in a different thread:Quote:
Yes. 100% out. I do still own some bitcoin. 401k all in bonds.
This will likely be a very expensive financial mistake/lesson for the OP considering all the money he is missing out on by not being in the market right now. Market timers are supposed to know when the bottom is, buy more during the bottom, and ride the wave back up to be a successful market timer. But we all know that almost never happens.
"buying stocks during the bottom" is also market timing.
I don't disagree with you. I know I'm not smart enough to even attempt timing the market.
That being said, everyone that says "buy the dip!" is market timing.
Dollar-cost-averaging would be the anthesis of market timing -- and studies have shown that lump sum investing and getting your money in the market as soon as possible beats DCA.
Don't have a target. Just waiting out the anticipated volatility. I'd rather earn a guaranteed 3-4% and just sit out the craziness. If I see it drop 20% I'll jump back in. Otherwise I'll just get back in once the market and/or our national leadership stabilizes.TxAG#2011 said:At what price would you buy back in?AggieFrog said:
I'm out of US stocks for a few months. Way too many warning signs and little signs of sustainable increased upside given current valuations. I'll risk losing a few percent if the market rises rather than risk a substantial drop which seems inevitable later this year as the tariffs and the general uncertainty really start biting the economy.
AggieFrog said:
I'm out of US stocks for a few months. Way too many warning signs and little signs of sustainable increased upside given current valuations. I'll risk losing a few percent if the market rises rather than risk a substantial drop which seems inevitable later this year as the tariffs and the general uncertainty really start biting the economy.
Which is also timing though. We may be past tariff policy before later this year. He's been incrementally backing off tariffs sector by sector every few days. Thus, why we are about back to beginning of year levels with the market.
Agreed it's timing and I'm okay with that. I'm fine with normal markets, but we're in a very abnormal time. And we're not past the tariff policy repercussions. We're well on our way to a self-imposed recession, even if deals are signed in the next week. Severe damage has already occurred.YouBet said:AggieFrog said:
I'm out of US stocks for a few months. Way too many warning signs and little signs of sustainable increased upside given current valuations. I'll risk losing a few percent if the market rises rather than risk a substantial drop which seems inevitable later this year as the tariffs and the general uncertainty really start biting the economy.
Which is also timing though. We may be past tariff policy before later this year. He's been incrementally backing off tariffs sector by sector every few days. Thus, why we are about back to beginning of year levels with the market.
The market was down 19% on April-8. Did you buy then?AggieFrog said:Don't have a target. Just waiting out the anticipated volatility. I'd rather earn a guaranteed 3-4% and just sit out the craziness. If I see it drop 20% I'll jump back in. Otherwise I'll just get back in once the market and/or our national leadership stabilizes.TxAG#2011 said:At what price would you buy back in?AggieFrog said:
I'm out of US stocks for a few months. Way too many warning signs and little signs of sustainable increased upside given current valuations. I'll risk losing a few percent if the market rises rather than risk a substantial drop which seems inevitable later this year as the tariffs and the general uncertainty really start biting the economy.
AggieFrog said:Agreed it's timing and I'm okay with that. I'm fine with normal markets, but we're in a very abnormal time. And we're not past the tariff policy repercussions. We're well on our way to a self-imposed recession, even if deals are signed in the next week. Severe damage has already occurred.YouBet said:AggieFrog said:
I'm out of US stocks for a few months. Way too many warning signs and little signs of sustainable increased upside given current valuations. I'll risk losing a few percent if the market rises rather than risk a substantial drop which seems inevitable later this year as the tariffs and the general uncertainty really start biting the economy.
Which is also timing though. We may be past tariff policy before later this year. He's been incrementally backing off tariffs sector by sector every few days. Thus, why we are about back to beginning of year levels with the market.
Certainly expect some lagging negative impacts from this. We shall see what materializes from that and if it's....material.
No - was kicking myself for not getting out in early February when I considered it. Got out when I got almost all the way back.
I've held on through the '08 crisis on until now and have done quite well. But I don't trust that there's a lot more run to the US market under current conditions and headwinds.
I've held on through the '08 crisis on until now and have done quite well. But I don't trust that there's a lot more run to the US market under current conditions and headwinds.
This thread is pretty funny, in a sad way. Typical Texags.
You guys keep saying I am trying to time the market, then talking about how I missed a big gain day. Well, I would be bothered about missing a big gain day if I was trying to to time the market... but I am not. At least I am not trying to time the market on a short time scale.
And if you think about it, every single person in the world who owns a stock is trying to time the market on a long term scale. Do you expect your account to have more money when you retire than now? Then you are also timing the market.
So am I sad I missed a few days in which the market rose 1.5%? No because the value of what I was invested in is down about 5% since I sold them all, and in addition the bitcoin that I spent a lot of money on from the sales is up about 5%. The rest of the money is making 4.5% annually with ZERO risk
Can any of you match a 6% positive over the past few months? Didn't think so and until you do quit positing about how stupid I was.
Here is what I see and why I am not worried stressing about missing the good days.
I went to Costco today. There was a plinko game for sale for 97 bucks. I saw it there 2 weeks ago for 49 bucks. Costco will not sell any of those games. Who would buy a $100 plinko game? Orange juice was $15 bucks for the three pack when it was $11 two weeks ago. It was $82 bucks for 4 choice ribeyes. What do you think the market will do with 10-15% inflation? How about when new jobs decline to 50k a month and unemployment apps soar? It is coming... what will the market do?
So stick your head in the sand and celebrate a rare earth deal with Ukraine. You know that same deal GUARANTEED continuing conflict with Russia for the next 10 years? Putin invaded the country so that he could develop the oil and rare earth deposits. We just took 10% of that away and I guarantee Putin is pissed.
In my opinion, America is in serious trouble... just look around. Look at the number of ships in LA and Long Beach ports. Hint, there aren't any. In my opinion, we are about to be pounded and I will continue sitting this out until stability comes back.
You guys keep saying I am trying to time the market, then talking about how I missed a big gain day. Well, I would be bothered about missing a big gain day if I was trying to to time the market... but I am not. At least I am not trying to time the market on a short time scale.
And if you think about it, every single person in the world who owns a stock is trying to time the market on a long term scale. Do you expect your account to have more money when you retire than now? Then you are also timing the market.
So am I sad I missed a few days in which the market rose 1.5%? No because the value of what I was invested in is down about 5% since I sold them all, and in addition the bitcoin that I spent a lot of money on from the sales is up about 5%. The rest of the money is making 4.5% annually with ZERO risk
Can any of you match a 6% positive over the past few months? Didn't think so and until you do quit positing about how stupid I was.
Here is what I see and why I am not worried stressing about missing the good days.
I went to Costco today. There was a plinko game for sale for 97 bucks. I saw it there 2 weeks ago for 49 bucks. Costco will not sell any of those games. Who would buy a $100 plinko game? Orange juice was $15 bucks for the three pack when it was $11 two weeks ago. It was $82 bucks for 4 choice ribeyes. What do you think the market will do with 10-15% inflation? How about when new jobs decline to 50k a month and unemployment apps soar? It is coming... what will the market do?
So stick your head in the sand and celebrate a rare earth deal with Ukraine. You know that same deal GUARANTEED continuing conflict with Russia for the next 10 years? Putin invaded the country so that he could develop the oil and rare earth deposits. We just took 10% of that away and I guarantee Putin is pissed.
In my opinion, America is in serious trouble... just look around. Look at the number of ships in LA and Long Beach ports. Hint, there aren't any. In my opinion, we are about to be pounded and I will continue sitting this out until stability comes back.
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6100 SPX touch is a lock now
knoxtom said:
I went ahead and switched up the 401k about ten minutes ago. Kept 25% remaining in a stock index fund, switched 50% to private bond fund, and 25% to govt bond fund.
I worked on this for a while today and I think this downward trend is going to be way worse than people think. And Trump is just doubling down on it. I am 56 years old, I can afford to make low returns for a year, but I can't afford massive drops and I was already down 14% in the last month.
The first move was good
But you switched the 401 at the bottom and SPX is now up 10% from there
Just curious if you were so bearish why did you not switch everything at the first sell ?
Buffet described this move to step away quite well.
"The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."
-Warren Buffett
"The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."
-Warren Buffett
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