I sold every stock I own but one and went to cash

50,259 Views | 339 Replies | Last: 20 days ago by Mr.Milkshake
knoxtom
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to 10andBOUNCE • 1:37p, 4/4/25
10andBOUNCE said:
Alright Knox, when are we getting back in? I divested into mostly cash during Q4 with the pending election outcome.

I don't think it will be anytime soon.

In the great depression the market fell right at 90%. I don't think that will happen but we are following the same policies and looking at the same conditions. The market is drastically overvalued, banking regulations/protections almost non existent, government policies make no sense and actually hurt. Both times are also characterized by a race to wealth in a small percentage of the population at the expense of the greater population. Disparity of wealth really hurts everyone despite what Bezos, Trump, and Musk tell you.

But we are hopefully better and more educated about policy and economics... which is all find and dandy unless your government ignores everything they have learned in the last hundred years.


So that being said, what is my plan...

I'm waiting. Over the last 4 years the markets trended up and everything that could be interpreted as negative caused quick downturns for a day or two. Then the market would slowly go back up until some little thing came out or could be interpreted bad, then back slowly up... Overall it went up a lot. A whole lot.

I think the opposite will now happen for the next year or two. Things will start to trend down slowly and any good news will cause a sharp rise... then trend back down until something can be interpreted well, then back down... I'm not going to jump back in every time a bit of good news comes out as I think policy will drive a long term downward trend. Will I miss one or two of the great days someone was discussing earlier? Of course. But those aren't what really drives it.


I will start buying back in when it all stabilizes. Give me a couple months in which it doesn't move up or down and that is where I will start wondering if the bottom is hit. Combining a negative outlook with massive volatility is BAD. Give me some relief from the big swings and that is when it will start to stabilize and maybe claw upward again. I am not sure that will ever happen under Trump.


Last thing... Trump will never admit he is wrong about this. It is not a negotiation tactic, it is what he believes and he will take out the whole country before he admits error. Our only real hope is to get a dem congress at mid term that will cause the whole gov't to stagnate. Deadlock is our best hope.

Isn't that funny when you think about it... the best thing for our country is to have neither party in control... yet we still won't vote for any sort of third party.

Reply Quote
17
Bonfire97
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to knoxtom • 1:49p, 4/4/25
AG
I agree with you completely. A pretty knowledgeable guy who used to post here alot talked about the weekly 10/50 SMA crossover. That is about to happen. I am not going in until the 10 gets back above the 50 going back up.
Reply Quote
1
knoxtom
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Bonfire97 • 2:15p, 4/4/25
Bonfire97 said:
I agree with you completely. A pretty knowledgeable guy who used to post here alot talked about the weekly 10/50 SMA crossover. That is about to happen. I am not going in until the 10 gets back above the 50 going back up.


You guys are way more advanced than me at using charts and average ratios. I have literally zero knowledge of what these mean as I have never used them, but I assume SMA crossover is something to do with moving averages.

I have a degree in Economics and the ability to logically analyze a policy and determine the overall effect. I have never looked at charts or anything like that but if I were to guess a 10/50 SMA probably weighs moving averages to gain some insight into a trend, and given it uses weighted averages it is probably an expectationalist thing attempting to gather whether the overall market perspective is positive or negative. If I am correct in what this ratio is attempting to do, then yes it is exactly what I am also looking at, but without the chart knowledge.

Reply Quote
4
TTUArmy
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to TTUArmy • 3:20p, 4/4/25
TTUArmy said:
txaggie_08 said:
OP's going to need a much greater selloff than 5% to prove himself right.
It's coming...
Reply Quote
1
Mr.Milkshake
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:29p, 4/4/25
The above post evidence that max fear is very near. Great depression talk. Very nice.
Reply Quote
12
knoxtom
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
5:46p, 4/6/25
I spent a couple hours at the pool today, which is weird since it is early April in Colorado. Going skiing tomorrow so I have to decide what to do about the 401k tonight.

I just don't see any reason to keep the 401k allocated in funds anymore. I think I am pulling the trigger and shifting to bond funds before tomorrow. This is getting worse, not better and I would rather have 2-3% gain in bond funds with security than the losses I foresee coming in the market.

This is a really hard decision but tomorrow shows all signs of a bloodbath
Reply Quote
1
Tea Party
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to knoxtom • 7:44p, 4/6/25
knoxtom said:

Isn't that funny when you think about it... the best thing for our country is to have neither party in control... yet we still won't vote for any sort of third party.
I tried.
Learn about the Texas Nationalist Movement
https://tnm.me
Reply Quote
1
knoxtom
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:48p, 4/6/25
I went ahead and switched up the 401k about ten minutes ago. Kept 25% remaining in a stock index fund, switched 50% to private bond fund, and 25% to govt bond fund.

I worked on this for a while today and I think this downward trend is going to be way worse than people think. And Trump is just doubling down on it. I am 56 years old, I can afford to make low returns for a year, but I can't afford massive drops and I was already down 14% in the last month.




Reply Quote
2
dreyOO
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to knoxtom • 8:36a, 4/7/25
Props to OP for calling his shot and it working. Wish I had done the same. Now I'm just waiting like everyone else.
Reply Quote
8
wessimo
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to dreyOO • 8:39a, 4/7/25
AG
dreyOO said:
Props to OP for calling his shot and it working. Wish I had done the same. Now I'm just waiting like everyone else.


OP got the first part of the call right. The next trick will be correctly timing re-entry.
Reply Quote
5
CS78
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to wessimo • 10:45a, 4/7/25
wessimo said:
dreyOO said:
Props to OP for calling his shot and it working. Wish I had done the same. Now I'm just waiting like everyone else.


OP got the first part of the call right. The next trick will be correctly timing re-entry.

The second part is easy. You take any reasonable profit you can get.

Ive been tinkering with market timing for a couple decades. So far, Ive never made a losing trade. Probably just lucky though. Ive spent 95% of my time just sitting in growth mutual funds. For me, I almost always move out too early and well before the fall happens. In this case I went to 100% cash back in early August at around 5350. AND I definitely always move back in way before the bottom hits. For me, market timing has been easy, as long as your arent swinging for the fence. Im happy if I can cheat the market out of 5%. Ill probably get back in really soon and wont even think about it again for a couple years.

And HUGE disclaimer- I dont have enough in for it to matter if Im wrong. 95% of my assets are in physical real estate, 2.5% in other hard assets, and 2.5% in old mutual funds from before I started real estate. Ive always had the attitude that if I get it wrong, Ill just hold the cash long term as emergency funds.
Reply Quote
2
bmoochie
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to one safe place • 8:40p, 4/8/25
AG
one safe place said:
knoxtom said:
But there is an equal or greater chance of serious drops in the markets, like I see a 30% to 50% drop.


lol


Curious if you're still laughing?
Reply Quote
7
YouBet
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to bmoochie • 8:45p, 4/8/25
AG
bmoochie said:
one safe place said:
knoxtom said:
But there is an equal or greater chance of serious drops in the markets, like I see a 30% to 50% drop.


lol


Curious if you're still laughing?


-11% YTD on Dow
-15% YTD on S&P

Still have a ways to get to 30-50%. Not saying we won't. Hope not.
Reply Quote
TTUArmy
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to YouBet • 9:52p, 4/8/25
YouBet said:
bmoochie said:
one safe place said:
knoxtom said:
But there is an equal or greater chance of serious drops in the markets, like I see a 30% to 50% drop.
lol
Curious if you're still laughing?
-11% YTD on Dow
-15% YTD on S&P

Still have a ways to get to 30-50%. Not saying we won't. Hope not.
30-50% is the correction we need...nobody wants it though.
Reply Quote
1
ag94whoop
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to TTUArmy • 10:00p, 4/8/25
AG
TTUArmy said:
YouBet said:
bmoochie said:
one safe place said:
knoxtom said:
But there is an equal or greater chance of serious drops in the markets, like I see a 30% to 50% drop.
lol
Curious if you're still laughing?
-11% YTD on Dow
-15% YTD on S&P

Still have a ways to get to 30-50%. Not saying we won't. Hope not.
30-50% is the correction we need...nobody wants it though.

If we are going there it will likely break the retirement of a generation who saved and built retirement account for years.
Reply Quote
3 edits
Motis B Totis
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:02p, 4/8/25
AG
Do we have any context of how much cash you are talking about, 1,000, 100,000, 1MM?
Reply Quote
TTUArmy
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ag94whoop • 10:22p, 4/8/25
ag94whoop said:
TTUArmy said:
YouBet said:
bmoochie said:
one safe place said:
knoxtom said:
But there is an equal or greater chance of serious drops in the markets, like I see a 30% to 50% drop.
lol
Curious if you're still laughing?
-11% YTD on Dow
-15% YTD on S&P

Still have a ways to get to 30-50%. Not saying we won't. Hope not.
30-50% is the correction we need...nobody wants it though.
If we are going there it will likely break the retirement of a generation who saved and built retirement account for years.
2001 wiped me out. I lost everything but my family. And 2008 nearly wiped me out and I did lose my family. I made it all back and then some. I had to be way more aggressive than I was comfortable with because time is rarely ever in one's favor. I had to say "no" to eating out, kid's club sports, and quite a few family vacations. It can be done but, it can cost in ways that will tear at your soul.
Reply Quote
1
Mr.Milkshake
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:12a, 4/9/25
This happens every correction. The doom and gloom.

In actual crashes, ppl aren't talking like this, they're laid off and scrapping. We haven't had one in 16 years. We aren't even close to one yet. Until you start seeing unemployment explode, it's all market games
Reply Quote
5
CS78
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ag94whoop • 7:59a, 4/9/25
Quote:
If we are going there it will likely break the retirement of a generation who saved and built retirement account for years.


There's a reason that its recommended that people nearing or in retirement move to get more conservative. Greed and recency bias have led a lot of people to blow that off. If people insist on staying aggressive, they better have about 25% more than what they actually need or risk not having a good time.
Reply Quote
5
CS78
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Mr.Milkshake • 8:14a, 4/9/25
Totally agree. But that doesn't make it any less real for stockholders. This has the potential to lead us there. And everyone is jockeying for position. If things get fixed quickly, we could see the fastest rebound in history. If they extend long term, it could very likely lead to your real world examples.
Reply Quote
ag94whoop
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to CS78 • 8:21a, 4/9/25
AG
But what does that mean?
I mean the bulk of my portfolio was quite conservative holding s&p based holdings and dividend etfs. All have fallen pretty significantly. Outside of simply having cash, everything has taken a pretty massive hit. I was about 28% cash and about 20% SCHD so I was not hit like others, but still have taken a pretty significant hit.
Reply Quote
CS78
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ag94whoop • 9:22a, 4/9/25
S&P type holdings might seem conservative compared to some of the more advanced techniques or compared to individual stocks. But they arent going to feel that way when the overall market tanks.

Already have a vanguard account? Check out Wellesley fund. If you feel you need more stock exposure then look more into a large value fund or etf than a sp500. SCHV would be a better choice than the SCHD. Think in large value. Not large growth, not small or mid value.

For income above t-bill, CD rates, I like high quality bond ladders held until maturity.

You might want to find a CFP that can help you come up with a plan.
Reply Quote
3 edits
ag94whoop
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to CS78 • 10:42a, 4/9/25
AG
Had a bond ladder thru JPM and it lost about 12% net over 4 years so I dumped it. The premium buys kills them. Despite a "guaranteed " annual 4% return my balance fell 12%.
I will check out the Wellesley funds. Looks like 3.6-3.7 dividend and a little less volatility than Schd from surface
Reply Quote
1
CS78
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ag94whoop • 10:45a, 4/9/25
ag94whoop said:
Had a bond ladder thru JPM and it lost about 12% net over 4 years so I dumped it. The premium buys kills them. Despite a "guaranteed " annual 4% return my balance fell 12%.

Did they sell your bonds before maturity? I know fees can be high but they shouldnt have brought you down into net loss areas.

There are ways to pick bonds yourself without an advisor at lower fees but youd have to do more research.
Reply Quote
1 edit
ag94whoop
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to CS78 • 11:32a, 4/9/25
AG
CS78 said:
ag94whoop said:
Had a bond ladder thru JPM and it lost about 12% net over 4 years so I dumped it. The premium buys kills them. Despite a "guaranteed " annual 4% return my balance fell 12%.

Did they sell your bonds before maturity? I know fees can be high but they shouldnt have brought you down into net loss areas.

There are ways to pick bonds yourself without an advisor at lower fees but youd have to do more research.


They always bought them at premium so when they sold at maturity it was almost always at a loss. It was supposed to be their best muni ladder. My CFP at JPM lost me money on that account so I just started doing it myself and while not great it's better than it was. I have a Parametric account as well that is thru them and that's been ok.

Reply Quote
LMCane
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to knoxtom • 11:54a, 4/9/25
knoxtom said:
I spent a couple hours at the pool today, which is weird since it is early April in Colorado. Going skiing tomorrow so I have to decide what to do about the 401k tonight.

I just don't see any reason to keep the 401k allocated in funds anymore. I think I am pulling the trigger and shifting to bond funds before tomorrow. This is getting worse, not better and I would rather have 2-3% gain in bond funds with security than the losses I foresee coming in the market.

This is a really hard decision but tomorrow shows all signs of a bloodbath
so you are going to lock in all your losses from the past month and move into 1% gain in bond funds.

many bond funds have been providing negative returns over the last year.
Reply Quote
JP76
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:11p, 4/9/25
The only people who get hurt on a roller coaster are the ones who jump off
Reply Quote
9
PDEMDHC
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:36p, 4/9/25
AG
Reply Quote
10
AgLA06
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to JP76 • 12:46p, 4/9/25
AG
JP76 said:
The only people who get hurt on a roller coaster are the ones who jump off
That's assuming the coaster doesn't crash.

Regardless of political affiliation what we're seeing over the last week is pure market manipulation. And I have no doubt people's friends and business partners are making lots of questionable money based on public announcements and "news".

  • Tariffs
  • Talks / calls
  • Doubling down
  • Tariffs freezes
  • Tariffs back on

The market is a complete yoyo until this crap stops and the only people who ultimately get wealthy are the ones getting inside info or driving the swings. Regardless of the end result of investing everyone has to recognized the much higher risk right now.

The only smart move might be knowing exactly what your money sitting on the sidelines will be worth when this circus finally stops. Even if that means missing out of big swings.
Reply Quote
1
1 edit
one safe place
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to bmoochie • 1:56p, 4/9/25
bmoochie said:
one safe place said:
knoxtom said:
But there is an equal or greater chance of serious drops in the markets, like I see a 30% to 50% drop.


lol


Curious if you're still laughing?
Yes, at the 50% drop, I sure am. Hope I continue to be able to do so! lol

I am down 7.17% from a couple of months ago, less so right now. I did sell about 45% of our holdings about 3 months ago so those funds are not subject to market gains or declines. Not because I am some predictor of the market guru (real or imagined) predicting the market gains and losses, but because I needed some amount of cash on April 5th. Turns out I didn't need as much as I thought and the excess will be going back into something. Not sure when though.
Reply Quote
10andBOUNCE
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to JP76 • 2:05p, 4/9/25
AG
JP76 said:
The only people who get hurt on a roller coaster are the ones who jump off
That is not how it worked when I played Roller Coaster Tycoon as a kid.

Reply Quote
3
YouBet
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ag94whoop • 2:38p, 4/9/25
AG
ag94whoop said:
CS78 said:
ag94whoop said:
Had a bond ladder thru JPM and it lost about 12% net over 4 years so I dumped it. The premium buys kills them. Despite a "guaranteed " annual 4% return my balance fell 12%.

Did they sell your bonds before maturity? I know fees can be high but they shouldnt have brought you down into net loss areas.

There are ways to pick bonds yourself without an advisor at lower fees but youd have to do more research.


They always bought them at premium so when they sold at maturity it was almost always at a loss. It was supposed to be their best muni ladder. My CFP at JPM lost me money on that account so I just started doing it myself and while not great it's better than it was. I have a Parametric account as well that is thru them and that's been ok.



This seems negligent. What kinds of bonds were they?
Reply Quote
1
LMCane
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:56p, 4/9/25
did the expert sell all his stock as he stated he was going to and move into bonds..

90 minutes before the stock market rose 2,300 points on the Dow?
Reply Quote
2
MouthBQ98
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to LMCane • 2:59p, 4/9/25
AG
Dow +3000, SP +472. If you timed that right you made a healthy profit. If you didn't panic earlier, you're at least close to where you were at the top.
Reply Quote
1
Heineken-Ashi
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Mr.Milkshake • 3:13p, 4/9/25
Mr.Milkshake said:
This happens every correction. The doom and gloom.

In actual crashes, ppl aren't talking like this, they're laid off and scrapping. We haven't had one in 16 years. We aren't even close to one yet. Until you start seeing unemployment explode, it's all market games
Unemployment exploding will happen after its too late to exit the market.
Reply Quote
1
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.