FIFYMouthBQ98 said:
Dow +3000, SP +472. If you timed that right AND SOLD you made a healthy profit. If you didn't panic earlier, you're at least close to where you were at the top, FOR NOW
I sold every stock I own but one and went to cash
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Last: 15 days ago by Mr.Milkshake
We need all of you market timers to let us know how that worked for you. Especially Knoxtom.
I say this to anyone who asks...I have lost way more money selling than I ever have buying. And I've never lost by holding.
I say this to anyone who asks...I have lost way more money selling than I ever have buying. And I've never lost by holding.
Not sure what he held, but on 2/27/25 SPY was $585. After today's run it's $544.OldArmyCT said:
We need all of you market timers to let us know how that worked for you. Especially Knoxtom.
I say this to anyone who asks...I have lost way more money selling than I ever have buying. And I've never lost by holding.
So far so good. I cashed out on 2/21.OldArmyCT said:
We need all of you market timers to let us know how that worked for you. Especially Knoxtom.
I say this to anyone who asks...I have lost way more money selling than I ever have buying. And I've never lost by holding.
I am up 6% in GLD while SPY is down 10% from those dates.
I fully expect another relief rally tomorrow, but I anticipate the overall trend will be a decline for SPY for the year.
My purely trading account is up nearly 30% so far this year, mostly from buying puts and selling for profit on stocks and sectors that that were overvalued.OldArmyCT said:
We need all of you market timers to let us know how that worked for you. Especially Knoxtom.
I say this to anyone who asks...I have lost way more money selling than I ever have buying. And I've never lost by holding.
Not everyone shares your inability to recognize overbought and oversold market conditions.
The only reason my largest account is down this year is because I have a sh*t ton of silver and my massive profits on my net free position from buying CORZ in 2023 at the literal lows have been cut in half. And that account is still barely down.
Buying premium bonds in a rising rate environment makes sense. They are higher yielding bonds so you have more cash flow to reinvest as rates rise and bonds mature.YouBet said:ag94whoop said:CS78 said:ag94whoop said:
Had a bond ladder thru JPM and it lost about 12% net over 4 years so I dumped it. The premium buys kills them. Despite a "guaranteed " annual 4% return my balance fell 12%.
Did they sell your bonds before maturity? I know fees can be high but they shouldnt have brought you down into net loss areas.
There are ways to pick bonds yourself without an advisor at lower fees but youd have to do more research.
They always bought them at premium so when they sold at maturity it was almost always at a loss. It was supposed to be their best muni ladder. My CFP at JPM lost me money on that account so I just started doing it myself and while not great it's better than it was. I have a Parametric account as well that is thru them and that's been ok.
This seems negligent. What kinds of bonds were they?
I am gradually giving up on the idea that I can time the market..
In 2000, I was upset because I had very little and I was jealous of everyone else making a ton of money. Then that evaporated almost overnight.
In 2008, I panicked and pulled out way more than I should have. I also waited way too long to get back in and lost out on a lot of the run-up.
In 2020, I wanted to hold tight but I did sell a bit and probably waited longer than I should have to put capital back to work.
Over the last month, I have lost well over a million dollars in my brokerage and retirement accounts. I'm not all that far away from retirement, so losing that amount for me was pretty crushing. Although that sucked mightily, I didn't make any moves other than to put about $30,000 of cash in over the last couple of days.
Today was a major bump up.
Maybe other people pay a lot more attention to this than I do, maybe they are better at reading the tea leaves, maybe they have better advisors or insight. I just know that, for myself, putting cash to work when it is available seems to be what works best for me, and I beat myself up less over losses than I used to (and I remember to congratulate myself on gains, like today!)
I think it's good in a forum like this to tell the moves you made that didn't go so well as well as what is working for you.
In 2000, I was upset because I had very little and I was jealous of everyone else making a ton of money. Then that evaporated almost overnight.
In 2008, I panicked and pulled out way more than I should have. I also waited way too long to get back in and lost out on a lot of the run-up.
In 2020, I wanted to hold tight but I did sell a bit and probably waited longer than I should have to put capital back to work.
Over the last month, I have lost well over a million dollars in my brokerage and retirement accounts. I'm not all that far away from retirement, so losing that amount for me was pretty crushing. Although that sucked mightily, I didn't make any moves other than to put about $30,000 of cash in over the last couple of days.
Today was a major bump up.
Maybe other people pay a lot more attention to this than I do, maybe they are better at reading the tea leaves, maybe they have better advisors or insight. I just know that, for myself, putting cash to work when it is available seems to be what works best for me, and I beat myself up less over losses than I used to (and I remember to congratulate myself on gains, like today!)
I think it's good in a forum like this to tell the moves you made that didn't go so well as well as what is working for you.
All that for nothing
Even if you aren't a trader, what you just described is exactly why this was book was written. Couldn't recommend it more. In short, financial markets are not logical. Humans are. Hence why our engrained emotions and thinking always seem wrong when buying stocks. You have to almost re-wire your brain.. train yourself to view the market differently than your job and just about everything else. You will then be prepared when others are fearful, calm when others are erratic, and profiting when others are losing.He Who Shall Be Unnamed said:
I am gradually giving up on the idea that I can time the market..
In 2000, I was upset because I had very little and I was jealous of everyone else making a ton of money. Then that evaporated almost overnight.
In 2008, I panicked and pulled out way more than I should have. I also waited way too long to get back in and lost out on a lot of the run-up.
In 2020, I wanted to hold tight but I did sell a bit and probably waited longer than I should have to put capital back to work.
Over the last month, I have lost well over a million dollars in my brokerage and retirement accounts. I'm not all that far away from retirement, so losing that amount for me was pretty crushing. Although that sucked mightily, I didn't make any moves other than to put about $30,000 of cash in over the last couple of days.
Today was a major bump up.
Maybe other people pay a lot more attention to this than I do, maybe they are better at reading the tea leaves, maybe they have better advisors or insight. I just know that, for myself, putting cash to work when it is available seems to be what works best for me, and I beat myself up less over losses than I used to (and I remember to congratulate myself on gains, like today!)
I think it's good in a forum like this to tell the moves you made that didn't go so well as well as what is working for you.
It was a municipal bond ladder.
A standard product from JPM at the time.
I put $250k in and several years later the balance closer to $220-230k
I can't remember the exact amount it fell.
Long story short,I closed it out and put the money elsewhere.
A standard product from JPM at the time.
I put $250k in and several years later the balance closer to $220-230k
I can't remember the exact amount it fell.
Long story short,I closed it out and put the money elsewhere.
That's what happens when you buy bonds at a premium. You were getting a higher coupon than the going market rate so your "loss" at maturity was made up for by the fact your coupon payments were higher than if you had bought a bond at par. Net cash to you in the end should have been similar in either scenario, with a slight difference in NPV due to cash flow timing and likely small amount of arbitrage.ag94whoop said:
It was a municipal bond ladder.
A standard product from JPM at the time.
I put $250k in and several years later the balance closer to $220-230k
I can't remember the exact amount it fell.
Long story short,I closed it out and put the money elsewhere.
Great post... I like how you pick out the people you think had a bad day and try to attack them. You are quite the Christian. But I didn't have a bad day, I took and passed a big qualifications exam then went mountain biking with my kid on a sunny 71 degree day. Not too worried about the daily fluctuations.OldArmyCT said:
We need all of you market timers to let us know how that worked for you. Especially Knoxtom.
I say this to anyone who asks...I have lost way more money selling than I ever have buying. And I've never lost by holding.
If I were a market timer I would have been trying to get a daily swing. I said before in this very thread that I am not worried about daily ups and downs, I am looking at Trump's overall policies and saying it is going down over the long term.
Would I have loved to have bought 2 days ago, rode robinhood up 20% yesterday, and sold today? Of course, but that would be market timing and I am not trying to do that. Do I think we will be lower 6 months from now than today? Yes. Daily changes are unimportant.
I look at yesterday almost exactly like I look at Trumps "peace agreement" with Ukraine and Russia. Big announcement, everyone on the politics board thought Trump was so awesome, 2 weeks later they are still fighting and Putin had never actually agreed to anything. When stability comes back, so will I.
Quote:
If I were a market timer I would have been trying to get a daily swing. I said before in this very thread that I am not worried about daily ups and downs, I am looking at Trump's overall policies and saying it is going down over the long term.
Would I have loved to have bought 2 days ago, rode robinhood up 20% yesterday, and sold today? Of course, but that would be market timing and I am not trying to do that. Do I think we will be lower 6 months from now than today? Yes. Daily changes are unimportant.
You are market timing, just on a longer time horizon.
The market was at 6100 a few months ago. How is your buy and hold working for you?Quote:
We need all of you market timers to let us know how that worked for you. Especially Knoxtom.
I say this to anyone who asks...I have lost way more money selling than I ever have buying. And I've never lost by holding
I'm not sure why you wasted your time responding to him. Nobody agrees with him. And oh look, SPY is down 3% already today.knoxtom said:Great post... I like how you pick out the people you think had a bad day and try to attack them. You are quite the Christian. But I didn't have a bad day, I took and passed a big qualifications exam then went mountain biking with my kid on a sunny 71 degree day. Not too worried about the daily fluctuations.OldArmyCT said:
We need all of you market timers to let us know how that worked for you. Especially Knoxtom.
I say this to anyone who asks...I have lost way more money selling than I ever have buying. And I've never lost by holding.
If I were a market timer I would have been trying to get a daily swing. I said before in this very thread that I am not worried about daily ups and downs, I am looking at Trump's overall policies and saying it is going down over the long term.
Would I have loved to have bought 2 days ago, rode robinhood up 20% yesterday, and sold today? Of course, but that would be market timing and I am not trying to do that. Do I think we will be lower 6 months from now than today? Yes. Daily changes are unimportant.
I look at yesterday almost exactly like I look at Trumps "peace agreement" with Ukraine and Russia. Big announcement, everyone on the politics board thought Trump was so awesome, 2 weeks later they are still fighting and Putin had never actually agreed to anything. When stability comes back, so will I.
Is recognizing extremely risky and overbought market conditions and selling market timing?txaggie_08 said:Quote:
If I were a market timer I would have been trying to get a daily swing. I said before in this very thread that I am not worried about daily ups and downs, I am looking at Trump's overall policies and saying it is going down over the long term.
Would I have loved to have bought 2 days ago, rode robinhood up 20% yesterday, and sold today? Of course, but that would be market timing and I am not trying to do that. Do I think we will be lower 6 months from now than today? Yes. Daily changes are unimportant.
You are market timing, just on a longer time horizon.
Again, just because some of you lack the ability to buy low and sell high, thereby forcing you to just hold forever and hope for the best, doesn't mean everyone is that way.
I had a co worker who got pissed Tuesday when the market was up...then went down significantly...he sold everything in his 401k at Tuesday close...all S&P500 index fund. He was about to pull his hair out yesterday...I'm guessing he'll still have a chance to buy back in for what he sold for, if not significantly lower.
I enjoy reading what everyone brings to these forums as they continue to educate me even if, after 30 years of investing, I believe I have a pretty good strategy that works for me. But I'll never understand why people get emotional about other's investing strategies and act like it's a zero sum game where someone has to be wrong and the other right.Heineken-Ashi said:Is recognizing extremely risky and overbought market conditions and selling market timing?txaggie_08 said:Quote:
If I were a market timer I would have been trying to get a daily swing. I said before in this very thread that I am not worried about daily ups and downs, I am looking at Trump's overall policies and saying it is going down over the long term.
Would I have loved to have bought 2 days ago, rode robinhood up 20% yesterday, and sold today? Of course, but that would be market timing and I am not trying to do that. Do I think we will be lower 6 months from now than today? Yes. Daily changes are unimportant.
You are market timing, just on a longer time horizon.
Again, just because some of you lack the ability to buy low and sell high, thereby forcing you to just hold forever and hope for the best, doesn't mean everyone is that way.
People do what's best for them. Sometimes you make mistakes but you learn from them. That comes with age and experience. Lord knows I made plenty of mistakes back in the dot bom era and learned from them. I learned again from the experience of 2008.
And no, this comment isn't directed at anyone in particular. Just a reminder that we all try to stick to the facts to help each other. I recognize that's harder when money, politics and religion are involved and in today's world the first two are front a center.
I assume there is a group of people just waiting for yesterday's uptick to GTFO of the market today.
I am not retiring any time soon so I don't really care much about the daily ups and downs....now if I got fired...hmm
I am not retiring any time soon so I don't really care much about the daily ups and downs....now if I got fired...hmm
I locked in some significant losses yesterday even after the rebound for the simple reason I don't mind tax loss harvesting and I wanted out of that position anyway….i just waited too long to get out. It is what it is.
I made a few similar mistakes last year but still ended up net positive and cut my income taxes at the same time so it's not always a total loss. You live and learn.
I made a few similar mistakes last year but still ended up net positive and cut my income taxes at the same time so it's not always a total loss. You live and learn.
absolutely - fully agree. That's why the "you can never time the market, just DCA and pray" is not helpful to anyone. That's not a strategy. There's no targets. There's no invalidation level. Even if long term trading, that's assuming nothing but risk, no matter how much you think stocks only go up. The OP outlined exactly why he thought it was best to exit the market. And was successful, despite taking nothing but snark from everyone. The people trying to dunk on him yesterday, with a historic move in the market that is only rivaled by BEAR MARKET BOUNCES during some of the worst years for the market in history including 1929, 1932, 2008, and 2020, are ridiculous. He sold near the highs and can now buy back when he sees fit. The market dropped 1200 pts this year, and people are trying to make fun of the guy that missed it. It's wild.Aglaw97 said:I enjoy reading what everyone brings to these forums as they continue to educate me even if, after 30 years of investing, I believe I have a pretty good strategy that works for me. But I'll never understand why people get emotional about other's investing strategies and act like it's a zero sum game where someone has to be wrong and the other right.Heineken-Ashi said:Is recognizing extremely risky and overbought market conditions and selling market timing?txaggie_08 said:Quote:
If I were a market timer I would have been trying to get a daily swing. I said before in this very thread that I am not worried about daily ups and downs, I am looking at Trump's overall policies and saying it is going down over the long term.
Would I have loved to have bought 2 days ago, rode robinhood up 20% yesterday, and sold today? Of course, but that would be market timing and I am not trying to do that. Do I think we will be lower 6 months from now than today? Yes. Daily changes are unimportant.
You are market timing, just on a longer time horizon.
Again, just because some of you lack the ability to buy low and sell high, thereby forcing you to just hold forever and hope for the best, doesn't mean everyone is that way.
People do what's best for them. Sometimes you make mistakes but you learn from them. That comes with age and experience. Lord knows I made plenty of mistakes back in the dot bom era and learned from them. I learned again from the experience of 2008.
And no, this comment isn't directed at anyone in particular. Just a reminder that we all try to stick to the facts to help each other. I recognize that's harder when money, politics and religion are involved and in today's world the first two are front a center.
Up down up down…. Hold!!!!
Market sucking ass today again. WTF.
I think Trump should back off from making statements for a few weeks for markets to heal.
I think Trump should back off from making statements for a few weeks for markets to heal.
I went to more cash than usual last year and continued in the first part of this year because based on my experience and what I was seeing and hearing, the market seemed too frothy and was just waiting for any match to light the tinderbox. Tariffs were that match but IMO are not the reason for the volatility we are seeing. Some could argue I went cash too early or that I'm foolish for not deploying that cash yet. But many factors come into play for each person including age, investment horizon, diversification of public portfolio, private investment opportunities, etc. Everyone has to make their own decisions.Heineken-Ashi said:absolutely - fully agree. That's why the "you can never time the market, just DCA and pray" is not helpful to anyone. That's not a strategy. There's no targets. There's no invalidation level. Even if long term trading, that's assuming nothing but risk, no matter how much you think stocks only go up. The OP outlined exactly why he thought it was best to exit the market. And was successful, despite taking nothing but snark from everyone. The people trying to dunk on him yesterday, with a historic move in the market that is only rivaled by BEAR MARKET BOUNCES during some of the worst years for the market in history including 1929, 1932, 2008, and 2020, are ridiculous. He sold near the highs and can now buy back when he sees fit. The market dropped 1200 pts this year, and people are trying to make fun of the guy that missed it. It's wild.Aglaw97 said:I enjoy reading what everyone brings to these forums as they continue to educate me even if, after 30 years of investing, I believe I have a pretty good strategy that works for me. But I'll never understand why people get emotional about other's investing strategies and act like it's a zero sum game where someone has to be wrong and the other right.Heineken-Ashi said:Is recognizing extremely risky and overbought market conditions and selling market timing?txaggie_08 said:Quote:
If I were a market timer I would have been trying to get a daily swing. I said before in this very thread that I am not worried about daily ups and downs, I am looking at Trump's overall policies and saying it is going down over the long term.
Would I have loved to have bought 2 days ago, rode robinhood up 20% yesterday, and sold today? Of course, but that would be market timing and I am not trying to do that. Do I think we will be lower 6 months from now than today? Yes. Daily changes are unimportant.
You are market timing, just on a longer time horizon.
Again, just because some of you lack the ability to buy low and sell high, thereby forcing you to just hold forever and hope for the best, doesn't mean everyone is that way.
People do what's best for them. Sometimes you make mistakes but you learn from them. That comes with age and experience. Lord knows I made plenty of mistakes back in the dot bom era and learned from them. I learned again from the experience of 2008.
And no, this comment isn't directed at anyone in particular. Just a reminder that we all try to stick to the facts to help each other. I recognize that's harder when money, politics and religion are involved and in today's world the first two are front a center.
Best of luck to all in these interesting times.
infinity ag said:
Market sucking ass today again. WTF.
I think Trump should back off from making statements for a few weeks for markets to heal.
I don't really think this is about healing the economy anymore.
Yesterday, ten minutes before Trump announced the tariff hold SPY and VOO buys went crazy. So obviously a lot of people knew the announcement was coming.
So either Trump postponed the tariffs because he knows it is bad policy or he is manipulating the market for his buddies. I don't believe it was because 70 countries called kissing his butt as not a single country made any concession, did a deal, or did anything else. Wonder how much Jared made yesterday?
I participate on multiple forums, one of which has many very good and experienced traders. A large majority bought ODTE calls on a technical setup and made a killing. They did not know the news. But they knew the market was oversold, saw the futures fail to follow through, and took a high risk high reward trade that the massively oversold conditions could cause a quick short squeeze. One guy made a 15x yesterday and said it was the best trade of his life. He didn't know the news that was coming. Just traded the pattern.knoxtom said:infinity ag said:
Market sucking ass today again. WTF.
I think Trump should back off from making statements for a few weeks for markets to heal.
I don't really think this is about healing the economy anymore.
Yesterday, ten minutes before Trump announced the tariff hold SPY and VOO buys went crazy. So obviously a lot of people knew the announcement was coming.
So either Trump postponed the tariffs because he knows it is bad policy or he is manipulating the market for his buddies. I don't believe it was because 70 countries called kissing his butt as not a single country made any concession, did a deal, or did anything else. Wonder how much Jared made yesterday?
Please stop.
You're on EVERY THREAD. We get It: You're a genuis and have it all figured out. If only we were so lucky.
You're on EVERY THREAD. We get It: You're a genuis and have it all figured out. If only we were so lucky.
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."
Mark Twain
Mark Twain
Refuting the claim that there was manipulation in the market =/= being a genius. I've advised plenty of failed trades on this board. But I show my work and try to help people. I share your long-term view on ET, but was genuinely SURPRISED that a hedge panned out as a bigger winner than the entire thesis of holding the stock in the first place - the dividend. If my posting annoys you - please, put me on ignore. No skin off my back.Bayou City said:
Please stop.
You're on EVERY THREAD. We get It: You're a genuis and have it all figured out. If only we were so lucky.
Buying stars Now
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."
Mark Twain
Mark Twain
Whattttt?? H-A is making *****es angry from scratch...LOL.Bayou City said:
Buying stars Now
H-A is a great poster, very knowledgeable, and shares his charts and setups. If you invest, keep an open mind to different takes here.
TexAgs salesman of the month.
This thread is worth revisiting after today's crazy drop. OP looking and feeling smarter by the day. I know you aren't supposed to time the market, but at the advice of an old rich Aggie who's won in the stock market, I sold almost every stock we have and put it in bonds 3 weeks ago. Now it's sitting in a money market account. Looks like a smart move for now, but the question is, when do we get back in?
Before it goes back up.Ensign Mayo said:
This thread is worth revisiting after today's crazy drop. OP looking and feeling smarter by the day. I know you aren't supposed to time the market, but at the advice of an old rich Aggie who's won in the stock market, I sold almost every stock we have and put it in bonds 3 weeks ago. Now it's sitting in a money market account. Looks like a smart move for now, but the question is, when do we get back in?
Assuming you are older than 60, safety above all else. You can ALWAYS jump in during an uptrend. You cant always get back what you lose from jumping in too early. If I had to advise you at this very moment, I'd say stay in the money market and make sure your bank is safe (low exposure to CRE, low exposure to "provisions for credit losses", low exposure to shadow banking (lending your deposits out to institutions that arent held to banking standards). If you get happy feet and feel the need to jump in, at least wait until the market can take out some resistance and hold higher lows.Ensign Mayo said:
This thread is worth revisiting after today's crazy drop. OP looking and feeling smarter by the day. I know you aren't supposed to time the market, but at the advice of an old rich Aggie who's won in the stock market, I sold almost every stock we have and put it in bonds 3 weeks ago. Now it's sitting in a money market account. Looks like a smart move for now, but the question is, when do we get back in?
nm
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