knoxtom said:

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This thread is pretty funny, in a sad way. Typical Texags.

You guys keep saying I am trying to time the market, then talking about how I missed a big gain day. Well, I would be bothered about missing a big gain day if I was trying to to time the market... but I am not. At least I am not trying to time the market on a short time scale.

And if you think about it, every single person in the world who owns a stock is trying to time the market on a long term scale. Do you expect your account to have more money when you retire than now? Then you are also timing the market.


So am I sad I missed a few days in which the market rose 1.5%? No because the value of what I was invested in is down about 5% since I sold them all, and in addition the bitcoin that I spent a lot of money on from the sales is up about 5%. The rest of the money is making 4.5% annually with ZERO risk


Can any of you match a 6% positive over the past few months? Didn't think so and until you do quit positing about how stupid I was.

Here is what I see and why I am not worried stressing about missing the good days.

I went to Costco today. There was a plinko game for sale for 97 bucks. I saw it there 2 weeks ago for 49 bucks. Costco will not sell any of those games. Who would buy a $100 plinko game? Orange juice was $15 bucks for the three pack when it was $11 two weeks ago. It was $82 bucks for 4 choice ribeyes. What do you think the market will do with 10-15% inflation? How about when new jobs decline to 50k a month and unemployment apps soar? It is coming... what will the market do?

So stick your head in the sand and celebrate a rare earth deal with Ukraine. You know that same deal GUARANTEED continuing conflict with Russia for the next 10 years? Putin invaded the country so that he could develop the oil and rare earth deposits. We just took 10% of that away and I guarantee Putin is pissed.

In my opinion, America is in serious trouble... just look around. Look at the number of ships in LA and Long Beach ports. Hint, there aren't any. In my opinion, we are about to be pounded and I will continue sitting this out until stability comes back.

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You're an idiot

I would like to thank all of you for the free entertainment.

S&P up over 1% again today. 9th green day in the stock market in a row!

Petrino1 said:

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S&P up over 1% again today. 9th green day in the stock market in a row!

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longest win streak for S&P in twenty years.

good thing experts who are able to time the market sold 30 days ago

when did they start buying back?

I bought nearly every day from 2 April -22 April

Sorry but I'm a proponent of dollar cost averaging in stocks that have long-term stable value and profitability.

This "I'm not market timing" sure looks, walks and talks like market timing.

10andBOUNCE said:

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I need to tread lightly and not make this a habit. This is not my day job, but I can see why people do this for a living.

I had gone to cash in Q4 2024 and finally allocated 1/3 of my cash back into select ETFs on 4/21. S&P has gone up roughly 10% since then, so I went ahead and just took the gains today.

Back 100% into the 4% SPAXX Money Market for now.

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All-time best for "username checks out"?

Good luck, market-timer!

Proposition Joe said:

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AggieFrog said:

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From FT this morning:

"This rally seems to be on the expectation that with regards to tariffs the worst has passed," said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chair of research at Barclays. But he added: "In fact it is exactly the contrary. The worst has not yet shown up in the data. Nothing has shown up in the data yet."

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So if the global chair of research at Barclays is saying the worst is yet to come - and that none of it has been factored in yet...

Are all the top investors and funds just ignoring this news? Did they somehow miss what the global chair of research at Barclays said? Did that link get lost in their Inbox?

Or is there apparently a lot more sentiment on the other side?

You're always going to find some braniac with great access to data that says "we're about to hit bad times" just like you'll find one that will say "we're about to hit great times".

I won't say it's noise, as that would imply the data he is looking at is bad and I have no doubts it is legitimate. But that doesn't mean it's indicative of anything when it comes to the market.

I won't dumb it down to the cliche "stock market is a chart of rich people's feelings", but how many times do we have to see earnings estimates beat and stock prices tumble (or bad economy numbers come out and the market completely shake it off) before coming to the conclusion that the disconnect between the market and actual news is such that trying to predict it is a fool's errand?

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LOL this is like the CEO of Pfizer telling us that their vaccines are safe and effective and everyone should get one. Companies (especially banks) act in their own self interest and in the interest of their share holders, period. Goldman Sachs comes out with some doom and gloom report every year predicting recessions, and most of the time it doesn't happen.

Im not saying the Barclays researcher is right or wrong, but Im probably not going to listen to what that person has to say given where they work. There will always be someone predicting something bad will happen and the worst is yet to come. The best advice is to ignore the noise and just stick to your game plan.

I bleed maroon said:

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Some observations:

• For the record, I still don't agree at all with knoxtom's philosophy, but why pile on? It has actually worked out for him. The guy is putting himself out there by explaining what he has done.

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No, it actually has not, not for his taxable brokerage account. He just paid at least 20% tax on any gains he sold, and the market is currently down only a few percent since he sold.

Knox is putting himself out there on a public forum because he thinks he's so smart. We can debate his decisions all we want.

txaggie_08 said:

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I bleed maroon said:

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Some observations:

• For the record, I still don't agree at all with knoxtom's philosophy, but why pile on? It has actually worked out for him. The guy is putting himself out there by explaining what he has done.

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No, it actually has not, not for his taxable brokerage account. He just paid at least 20% tax on any gains he sold, and the market is currently down only a few percent since he sold.

Knox is putting himself out there on a public forum because he thinks he's so smart. We can debate his decisions all we want.

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Of course it has, by definition. He has noted he's happy with his results. I don't agree with his thought process, but IT'S HIS MONEY, and his assessment of risk. He may have had capital losses on his securities he sold, he may have had tax offsets elsewhere, and it may have mostly been in a pre-tax account. He may have bought a boat with the proceeds and is enjoying life on the lake. Who are we to judge his decisions for his personal circumstances?

Despite it probably being short-sighted and not recommended for most people, you can debate his thought process, but you can't know that it wasn't a great risk-adjusted outcome for him.

It's 100% dollar cost averaging

The wife is tired of me convincing her I am actually right, so move on to you guys.

3rdGenAg05 said:

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Has Knoxtom said how old he/she is in here?

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That is actually a really good question as it drastically affects what people should do. If I were 35 YO I wouldn't have gone to cash, I would have just bought more.

I am soon to be 57 years old and have had 2 open heart surgeries in the past year. Because of this I have become much more risk averse and don't really want to see a bunch of money go down the drain. I like the idea of making 4.5% and missing possible gains WAY more than I like the idea of losing money. While I am usually not very conservative with investments, my timing has me becoming quite cautious.

One person asked why I still hold bitcoin and honestly it is just in case the explosion occurs. The supply in bitcoin is limited so much that if every millionaire in America wanted to own a single bitcoin... there is not enough to go around. So I keep a small stack.

One other person asked why I didn't transfer the 401k immediately to bonds and waited a few weeks. I have no real reason. I have always just been taught to never touch the 401k and sometimes it is hard to go against what you were taught.


Enjoy your weekends, I am going mountain biking with the kid... his first time down Captain Jacks! Then I am getting the Van ready for a trip to the great sand dunes next weekend and ending the day with some ribs and beer at a friend's house. I think I am supposed to make potato salad or something stupid. Anyway, it all sounds much more fun than worrying about finances.