*****Official RPI and Seed Watch Thread*****

26,584 Views | 183 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by Detective Jake Peralta
HoustonAg2106
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In reply to W • 10:49p, 5/10/26
AG
W said:
it looks like there are still five top 8 spots for the SEC

which bodes well for the A&M-State series winner

but if LSU rolls over in Gainesville, Florida could finish 18-12 with great metrics across the board


I'm pretty sure that series is in Baton Rouge
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W
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11:06p, 5/10/26
AG
that's right -- might make a difference...or might not
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LincolnBorglum79
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11:55p, 5/10/26
AG
With just 3 games left each, if we sweep Miss st we finish 2nd in the sec at 19-10. If we take 2of 3 it's 18-11 with only tu, bama and auburn are threats to pass us and each would need a sweep. Even 1-2 vs MSU and we finish in the top 5 of the sec. A 2 or 3 seed doesn't play in the sec tournament until Friday when 10 teams will already be eliminated.
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dixichkn
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In reply to LincolnBorglum79 • 6:02a, 5/11/26
AG
tu was handed that cake finish at home vs last place team in conference (shocking lol) so we're absolutely gonna have to sweep. Which is highly unlikely given the way we're going right now
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tjack16
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In reply to W • 6:14a, 5/11/26
AG
W said:
just for fun...

it's tough being a 9 thru 16 host

looking at the last 4 seasons...the number of 9 thru 16 hosts that made it to Omaha:

2022 --> 2
2023 --> 0
2024 --> 2
2025 --> 2


Just for fun, it's still not that easy to be a 1-8 seed

2022 > 2
2023 > 4
2024 > 5
2025 > 3

It's only about a 50% success rate at best. 2024 was the most chalky but looks like 2022 and 2023 were chaos.

Regional hosts 1-16 seeds that made it to Omaha
2022: 4/8
2023: 4/8
2024: 7/8
2025: 5/8
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W
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9:38a, 5/11/26
AG
9 thru 16 is about an 18% pass rate to Omaha
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Agryan00
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10:35a, 5/11/26
Whats the pass rate for the overall #1 seed? Lol!
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Detective Jake Peralta
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1:36p, 5/11/26
AG
OP is updated as we head into the final week of the regular season!

I ended up moving A&M up a spot to number seven. I'm biased, of course, but I think it's hard to argue anyone below the Ags as more deserving right now. That could, of course, change after this weekend.

SUMMARY: Despite losing the weekend series for the second consecutive week, A&M controls its own destiny when it comes to the national seed race. In fact, I even moved A&M up a spot to the number 7 national seed this week.

For a team to lose their spot, there has to be someone that rises up to take it. I just don't think that has happened yet. Kansas (swept by West Virginia at home) and Coastal Carolina (lost 2/3 to a bad Old Dominion team) were the big losers this week, opening the door for A&M to stay in top 8 position. A&M and Florida State were close for me, but ultimately I kept the Ags ahead due to the fact that they have two series wins better than the 'Noles' best one.

The goal is very simple for the Ags: win 2/3 vs Mississippi State this weekend and you earn the right to host postseason baseball at Olsen through the Super Regional round.

Texas A&M Snapshot:
37-12 (16-9, 2nd in SEC)
RPI: 10 (-2 from last week)
ELO: 8 (+1)
KPI: 9 (-1)
DSR: 7 (-2)
PEAR NET: 7 (-3)
SoS: 26 (-2)

Q1: 12-11
Q2: 2-0
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 17-0

Updated Seed List:


Potential A&M Path to Omaha:


Just win, baby!
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W
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2:11p, 5/11/26
AG
do we think that SoS will not matter to the committee?

that's where Alabama has a big edge

SoS #4 and non-conference SoS #26

Bama is also 19-14 vs. Q1 & Q2
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Detective Jake Peralta
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In reply to W • 2:21p, 5/11/26
AG
Yes it will matter. I think if they win 2/3 this weekend they will likely get one of the last two top 8 seeds.

The only mark against them is their 3 Q3 losses. That's why I give the edge to Florida State for now, personally, but I admit I'm kind of on an island there.
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Mr.Ackar07
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2:56p, 5/11/26
This is crazy: https://d1baseball.com/stories/d1baseball-weekly-chat-may-11/

Posted by Kendall in the D1 Chat

Quote:
LSU (13 years), Vanderbilt (19 years) and Dallas Baptist (11 years) are all likely to miss the NCAA tournament.

Edit to add that those are active regional appearances for each team.
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HJack20
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In reply to Mr.Ackar07 • 5:48p, 5/11/26
AG
Mr.Ackar07 said:
This is crazy: https://d1baseball.com/stories/d1baseball-weekly-chat-may-11/

Posted by Kendall in the D1 Chat

Quote:
LSU (13 years), Vanderbilt (19 years) and Dallas Baptist (11 years) are all likely to miss the NCAA tournament.

Edit to add that those are active regional appearances for each team.


It feels like "win the championship, then miss the tournament" has been a common occurrence lately. Heck it almost happened to us. Runner up, then miss the tournament.
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caleblyn
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6:00p, 5/11/26
We may experience the Stilson experience again and drop due to injuries.
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Agryan00
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In reply to HJack20 • 10:48a, 5/12/26
Sign me up! I am all for missing the tourney in 2027. Lets gooooo!!!!!
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greg.w.h
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In reply to Agryan00 • 10:51a, 5/12/26
AG
Agryan00 said:
Sign me up! I am all for missing the tourney in 2027. Let's gooooo!!!!!
Shouldn't we win the CWS before we sacrifice the next year to the baseball gods??? We tried the other way already…
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Fairview20
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2:39p, 5/12/26
AG


D1 has us at #8 matched up with #9 Southern Miss. KU and Coastal each dropped a lot. Coastal isn't even a host anymore in this one.
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Mr.Ackar07
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In reply to Fairview20 • 3:02p, 5/12/26
Fairview20 said:


D1 has us at #8 matched up with #9 Southern Miss. KU and Coastal each dropped a lot. Coastal isn't even a host anymore in this one.

That (on paper) would be a pretty favorable matchup. Cincinnati, UTSA, and a return of Binghamton against USM, or a rematch with Oklahoma, or ECU or Indiana St.


Cincinnati: 35-18
Q1: 10-9 (Tue Win over Auburn followed by a 2-1 win over WV; losses to OSU and Kansas)
Q2: 7-5
Q3: 11-3
Q4: 7-1

UTSA: 34-17
Q1: 1-2 (beat Coastal)
Q2: 7-5 (2 of 3 at Rice is the highlight)
Q3: 16-8 (best win against ECU at home)
Q4: 10-2

Binghamton: 26-19 This would probably allow us to go Darden/Sdao to open the Regional
Q1: 1-2 (at High Point)
Q2: 0-3
Q3: 4-5
Q4: 21-9

USM: 37-14
Q1: 8-7 (Split H/A Tue matchups with Auburn and Miss St.)
Q2: 13-2 (Highlights are 2 of 3 from UCSB and sweep of Texas St)
Q3: 6-3
Q4: 10-2

OU: 31-18 Have been trending down since we played them
Q1: 9-14
Q2: 7-4
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 12-0

ECU: 30-21-1
Q1: 3-6 (W/L/T against UNC)
Q2: 3-5
Q3: 17-8 (next best weekend win is against UAB)
Q4: 7-2

ISU: 28-23
Q1: 1-2 (beat Purdue on the road)
Q2: 3-7 (no series wins)
Q3: 12-5 (best series win against Wright St)
Q4: 12-9
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Detective Jake Peralta
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In reply to Fairview20 • 3:27p, 5/12/26
AG
Cincinnati would be tough but very manageable. I would take a Super Regional matchup with Southern Miss in a heartbeat.

I don't think USM will end up that high, though. Even if they overtake Coastal and win the Sun Belt, I think they'll be in the 12-14 range. For reference, last year Coastal won the Sun Belt with an RPI of 8 and was given the #13 overall seed.
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Mr.Ackar07
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In reply to Detective Jake Peralta • 3:30p, 5/12/26
Detective Jake Peralta said:
Cincinnati would be tough but very manageable. I would take a Super Regional matchup with Southern Miss in a heartbeat.

I don't think USM will end up that high, though. Even if they overtake Coastal and win the Sun Belt, I think they'll be in the 12-14 range. For reference, last year Coastal won the Sun Belt with an RPI of 8 and was given the #13 overall seed.

USM's Athletic Director is on the committee this year...
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Detective Jake Peralta
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In reply to Mr.Ackar07 • 3:32p, 5/12/26
AG
Ah, good catch.

Still, that's going to be a tough sell over some of the other teams they'll be compared with. For A&M's purposes, I definitely don't think there's a case for them to be top 8 at this point.
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Fairview20
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3:39p, 5/12/26
AG
I think there's a good chance Bama loses to Ole Miss this weekend and drops too. Their recent run of form might be a bit fools gold since all 6 wins were vs Vandy and SC.

They've lost their last 3 series vs projected tournament teams.
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Detective Jake Peralta
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In reply to Fairview20 • 3:57p, 5/12/26
AG
Yeah, that's why I've been kind of resistant to putting them all the way in the top 8 despite their RPI. The old "18 wins in the SEC gets you a national seed" adage could get very interesting this year.

What if...
  • Texas takes at least two from Mizzou to get to 18
  • A&M takes at least two from Mississippi State to get to 18
  • Auburn takes at least two from Georgia to get to 18
  • Alabama takes at least two from Ole Miss to get to 18
  • Florida sweeps LSU to get to 18
  • Arkansas sweeps Oklahoma to get to 18
If you add in Georgia, who is a lock by way of winning the SEC regular season, that would be seven teams that "deserve" a top eight based on their win total. Who gets left out (other than Arkansas)?
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Sq 17
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In reply to Detective Jake Peralta • 5:09p, 5/12/26
3-4 SEC teams will get 1-8
3-4 will be hosts at 9-16

Tourney might actually matter
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W
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In reply to Fairview20 • 7:12p, 5/12/26
AG
had a feeling Alabama was going to make a nice jump

all the way to #7

the Tide has a really good resume
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W
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7:12p, 5/12/26
AG
random note...

Florida State has never played in College Station
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SA-AG72
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7:13p, 5/12/26
AG
nm. Wrong forum.
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W
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In reply to Detective Jake Peralta • 7:16p, 5/12/26
AG
the Gators would be left out

since UF lost head-to-head series to A&M, Auburn, and Alabama

Florida needs A&M or Bama to have a bad weekend

(I think Auburn is a lock regardless)
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W
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7:19p, 5/12/26
AG
Arkansas is an interesting case

the Hogs cannot make any progress in the RPI due to those Q3 and Q4 losses

Arky has been churning between #25 and #32 for a while

should make a tough 2-seed for GT or UNC
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HoustonAg2106
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In reply to W • 7:45p, 5/12/26
AG
W said:
Arkansas is an interesting case

the Hogs cannot make any progress in the RPI due to those Q3 and Q4 losses

Arky has been churning between #25 and #32 for a while

should make a tough 2-seed for GT or UNC


Georgia Tech will get an easier 2 seed as they will be a very high seed themselves
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twk
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In reply to Detective Jake Peralta • 11:48p, 5/12/26
AG
Detective Jake Peralta said:
Yeah, that's why I've been kind of resistant to putting them all the way in the top 8 despite their RPI. The old "18 wins in the SEC gets you a national seed" adage could get very interesting this year.

What if...
  • Texas takes at least two from Mizzou to get to 18
  • A&M takes at least two from Mississippi State to get to 18
  • Auburn takes at least two from Georgia to get to 18
  • Alabama takes at least two from Ole Miss to get to 18
  • Florida sweeps LSU to get to 18
  • Arkansas sweeps Oklahoma to get to 18
If you add in Georgia, who is a lock by way of winning the SEC regular season, that would be seven teams that "deserve" a top eight based on their win total. Who gets left out (other than Arkansas)?

In that scenario, A&M and t.u. would finish 2nd and 3rd in the league at 18-11. The other 18 game winners would be 18-12. Seems a small difference, but you can't just ignore it.
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58-7
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In reply to Detective Jake Peralta • 6:18a, 5/13/26
AG
Detective Jake Peralta said:


Updated Seed List:



Was just curious how many wins these top 16 seeds had vs this same group of 16 this year
1. UCLA - 2
2. GA Tech - 6
3. GEO - 8 (3 more to play)
4. UNC - 2
5. tu - 9
6. Auburn - 8
7. TAMU - 7 (3 more to play)
8. FSU - 0 (interesting they are 0-7)
9. BAMA - 8 (3 more to play)
10. Miss St - 6 (3 more to play)
11. So. Miss - 4
12. UF - 8
13. Kansas - 0
14. Coastal - 2
15. Ole Miss - 7 (3 more to play)
16. Ore. St - 1
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Sq 17
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In reply to 58-7 • 6:38a, 5/13/26
Nice stat but showing overall record not just wins would be more informative
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HoustonAg2106
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In reply to Sq 17 • 6:44a, 5/13/26
AG
Sq 17 said:
Nice stat but showing overall record not just wins would be more informative


Quick math says we are 7-8
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HartAg15
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In reply to HoustonAg2106 • 7:09p, 5/13/26
AG
Do we need a sweep this week to get a top 8 seed, or will a series win do it?
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Detective Jake Peralta
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In reply to HartAg15 • 8:50p, 5/13/26
AG
The committee can always throw a curveball but by all accounts winning 2/3 will lock it up.
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