*****Official Reciprocal Tariff Thread*****

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Krombopulos Michael
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4:06p, 4/2/25
[url=https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1907532044961251463] [/url]



How's it going to work out for all of us??????
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JobSecurity
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4:40p, 4/2/25
AG
I'll be waiting for that tax cut
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flakrat
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4:41p, 4/2/25
BTKAG97
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11:00p, 4/2/25
AG
The one question NO ONE is asking regarding Trump's tariffs is "What does the US import from each country"?

This should help any tariffs discussion:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports-by-country
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Prosperdick
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In reply to BTKAG97 • 11:11p, 4/2/25
AG
BTKAG97 said:
The one question NO ONE is asking regarding Trump's tariffs is "What does the US import from each country"?

This should help any tariffs discussion:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports-by-country
Well, Mexico, Canada, and Vietnam are 3 of the top 6 on that list and have all made announcements they will negotiate with the U.S. to lower their tariffs so we'll see if more fall in line.

I know the EU said they will "weather the storm" but could just be posturing at this point as they haven't felt any real pain soon.
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lexofer
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11:19p, 4/2/25
AG
The entire chart is based off of a complete lie. "Tariffs Charged to the USA, Including Currency Manipulation and Trade Barriers" has absolutely nothing to do with the tariffs charged to the USA.

They are the percentage of trade deficit. (US Imports - US Exports)/(US Imports)

So for China ($401B - $131B) / $401B = 67%

It's not some complicated economic calculation, it's a very simplistic percentage of trade deficit and a lie to call it a tariff.

Posted this on the other thread, it has been confirmed by other news sources now.

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will25u
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11:34p, 4/2/25
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will25u
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In reply to lexofer • 11:45p, 4/2/25
lexofer said:
The entire chart is based off of a complete lie. "Tariffs Charged to the USA, Including Currency Manipulation and Trade Barriers" has absolutely nothing to do with the tariffs charged to the USA.

They are the percentage of trade deficit. (US Imports - US Exports)/(US Imports)

So for China ($401B - $131B) / $401B = 67%

It's not some complicated economic calculation, it's a very simplistic percentage of trade deficit and a lie to call it a tariff.

Posted this on the other thread, it has been confirmed by other news sources now.



Not saying what your post said is what they did, but here is the actual website telling you how they supposedly did it. And the equation.

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DarkBrandon01
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11:47p, 4/2/25
AG
The US will never again have a post war monopoly on industry. These tariffs will destroy the economy while this administration chases a dream that isn't possible anymore. The rest of the world will learn to trade without us and the US will no longer dominate global financial markets.

What MAGA doesn't realize is that other countries making your products is a sign of strength, not weakness. Our quality of life is so fantastic BECAUSE of outsourcing. All of our products are cheap because they are made in sweatshops overseas, in countries too underdeveloped to have any leverage in the market. And Trump has the audacity to say that those countries are exploiting us! This era of US dominance will come to an end if the tariffs are allowed to remain.

I said this months ago and I'll say it again. Start stockpiling food.
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lexofer
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In reply to will25u • 11:59p, 4/2/25
AG
will25u said:
lexofer said:
They are the percentage of trade deficit. (US Imports - US Exports)/(US Imports)

So for China ($401B - $131B) / $401B = 67%

Not saying what your post said is what they did, but here is the actual website telling you how they supposedly did it. And the equation.

mi = Imports, xi = Exports so yes it's the same. It's fine to say that's the way they calculate the reciprocal tariff as a percentage of trade deficit. The problem is the chart says that is also "Tariffs Charged to the USA" which is not true.
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aezmvp
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In reply to DarkBrandon01 • 12:10a, 4/3/25
Hate to break this to you but a country that can't make it's own medicine, machines, steel and chemicals is always a hairs breadth from doom. Free trade only works with people that have a reciprocal relationship or no industrial base and are reliant on you. I'm not sure these are the best policies but I bet you see a flurry of changes on US goods over the next 6 months and on better terms for the US than any point in at least 70 years and probably ever.
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TexAgBolter
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12:23a, 4/3/25
AG
Me seeing the product that I sell on the exemption list.
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nortex97
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In reply to lexofer • 5:27a, 4/3/25
AG
I agree. This chart is illustrative of the calculation/formula, anyway.

Vietnam I thought might cooperate 'enough' to avoid this but I guess not. Nike stock is a blood bath pre-market, fwiw, as they love their VN manufacturing.

I haven't bought a nike product in over 10 years so whatever but I am surprised there isn't more automation than that in shoes/apparel at this point. 450,000? Wild.
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HTownAg98
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In reply to will25u • 5:49a, 4/3/25
Keep reading:
Quote:
To calculate reciprocal tariffs, import and export data from the U.S. Census Bureau for 2024. Parameter values for and epsilon and psi were selected. The price elasticity of import demand, epsilon, was set at 4.

Recent evidence suggests the elasticity is near 2 in the long run (Boehm et al., 2023), but estimates of the elasticity vary. To be conservative, studies that find higher elasticities near 3-4 (e.g., Broda and Weinstein 2006; Simonovska and Waugh 2014; Soderbery 2018) were drawn on. The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, psi, is 0.25. The recent experience with U.S. tariffs on China has demonstrated that tariff passthrough to retail prices was low (Cavallo et al, 2021).

They set epsilon at 4 and psi at 0.25. What happens when you multiply an integer by its reciprocal?

It really is just (exports-imports)/imports.

Edited because evidently Texags hates Greek letters too.
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mm98
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In reply to TexAgBolter • 6:06a, 4/3/25
AG
Where are you finding this. Are new HTS code tables updated ad of last night?
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Gigemags382
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6:15a, 4/3/25
AG
Why such a strong reaction by the market now (down about 3.5% pre-market)? Hasn't it pretty much been known for a while now that the tariffs would be enacted today? I guess the market as whole was assuming Trump wouldn't actually go through with it?
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Cynic
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 6:19a, 4/3/25
There was the possibility that the tariffs were just a negotiation tactic and they would never go in place, now it appears they will be installed and there isn't a definite end in sight. Maybe the markets held off while there was still a sliver of hope.
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ExPeterKeating
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7:16a, 4/3/25
Explain to me why us having, in most cases, a 50% RECIPROCAL tariff on imports is unfair or bad? Why is no one upset at the tariffs pointed at the US? Oooooo, the world will collapse and our economy will collapse. So, my cheap Chinese junk will cost a few bucks more? Big whoop. Maybe the bedwetters should be *****ing at other countries for holding tariff on US exports. But NO! They never do that. Maybe i can just buy something made in the US. If we get a strengthened manufacturing base, then we all win.
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agcrock2005
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In reply to ExPeterKeating • 7:21a, 4/3/25
AG
ExPeterKeating said:
Explain to me why us having, in most cases, a 50% RECIPROCAL tariff on imports is unfair or bad? Why is no one upset at the tariffs pointed at the US? Oooooo, the world will collapse and our economy will collapse. So, my cheap Chinese junk will cost a few bucks more? Big whoop. Maybe the bedwetters should be *****ing at other countries for holding tariff on US exports. But NO! They never do that. Maybe i can just buy something made in the US. If we get a strengthened manufacturing base, then we all win.
Agreed. All this did was enlighten me to how badly we've been getting screwed by everyone else while they take advantage of our buying power.
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HTownAg98
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In reply to ExPeterKeating • 7:22a, 4/3/25
Because we put tariffs on countries where we have a positive trade balance, and even countries where we have zero tariffs just because we have a trade deficit with them. How they came up with this is so mind numbingly stupid.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to HTownAg98 • 7:25a, 4/3/25
HTownAg98 said:
Because we put tariffs on countries where we have a positive trade balance, and even countries where we have zero tariffs just because we have a trade deficit with them. How they came up with this is so mind numbingly stupid.


It's actually genius if it works. The imbalance isn't as important as the actual gross exports. Exports are a major driver of job creation here; if our tariffs force trade partners to lower their tariffs against us; we export more. That's a huge win.
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HTownAg98
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 7:29a, 4/3/25
You can't lower a zero tariff unless you start subsidizing other countries. The idea that these are reciprocal tariffs is a lie because they're not based on existing tariffs; they're based on trade deficits.
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Secolobo
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In reply to DarkBrandon01 • 7:33a, 4/3/25
AG
DarkBrandon01 said:
The US will never again have a post war monopoly on industry. These tariffs will destroy the economy while this administration chases a dream that isn't possible anymore. The rest of the world will learn to trade without us and the US will no longer dominate global financial markets.

What MAGA doesn't realize is that other countries making your products is a sign of strength, not weakness. Our quality of life is so fantastic BECAUSE of outsourcing. All of our products are cheap because they are made in sweatshops overseas, in countries too underdeveloped to have any leverage in the market. And Trump has the audacity to say that those countries are exploiting us! This era of US dominance will come to an end if the tariffs are allowed to remain.

I said this months ago and I'll say it again. Start stockpiling food.
I guess I missed your post when Biden kept trump's tariffs and even expanded on some of them…
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texaglurkerguy
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7:34a, 4/3/25
It's shockingly dishonest, even for Trump, to call trade deficits "tariffs" and his tariffs "reciprocal"
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Kansas Kid
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 7:39a, 4/3/25
He also didn't include the services trade surplus we run with almost every one of those countries. The total is almost $300b yet it is rarely talked about even though in a digital economy, services are just as critical as goods and create a lot of high paying jobs.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/971785/trade-balance-of-services-in-the-united-states/
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blacksox
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7:39a, 4/3/25
This is going to be an absolute DISASTER! It will be interesting to watch the MAGA wave jumping ship as the inevitable happens. Not good!
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to HTownAg98 • 7:40a, 4/3/25
HTownAg98 said:
You can't lower a zero tariff unless you start subsidizing other countries. The idea that these are reciprocal tariffs is a lie because they're not based on existing tariffs; they're based on trade deficits.




The list of our trade partners without tariffs on us is quite small and Israel only dropped tariffs because of the threat of tariffs.
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Kansas Kid
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In reply to ExPeterKeating • 7:41a, 4/3/25
ExPeterKeating said:
Explain to me why us having, in most cases, a 50% RECIPROCAL tariff on imports is unfair or bad? Why is no one upset at the tariffs pointed at the US? Oooooo, the world will collapse and our economy will collapse. So, my cheap Chinese junk will cost a few bucks more? Big whoop. Maybe the bedwetters should be *****ing at other countries for holding tariff on US exports. But NO! They never do that. Maybe i can just buy something made in the US. If we get a strengthened manufacturing base, then we all win.

They didn't calculate these based on the tariffs the countries charge the US. They did it strictly based on goods trade deficit and didn't offset it with the services surplus we run with most countries. These aren't reciprocal tariff rates at all.
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pollo hermanos
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 7:48a, 4/3/25
AG
texaglurkerguy said:
It's shockingly dishonest, even for Trump, to call trade deficits "tariffs" and his tariffs "reciprocal"
Wildly dishonest, but not for Trump. Totally consistent with his behavior since being on the national political stage. It is who he is. The truth really has no bearing on what he says. Its about winning. We are and have been told by MAGA that it doesnt matter.
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nortex97
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8:02a, 4/3/25
AG
The left now choosing to melt over 'Mean Trump is using words/calculations I don't like' I guess should have been predictable.
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Kansas Kid
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8:09a, 4/3/25
He placed no additional tariffs on Cuba, Russia, North Korea, and Belarus yet hit Saint Pierre and Miquelon with a 50% tariff even though they have no tariffs on US imports. Can someone explain how this is a reciprocal tariff on Saint Pierre?

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/25060517.desert-islands-trump-declared-trade-war/
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Kansas Kid
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:18a, 4/3/25
But sewing has been notoriously difficult to automate, because textiles bunch and stretch as they're worked with. Human hands are adept at keeping fabric organized as it passes through a sewing machine. Robots typically are not deft enough to handle the task.

Also, low cost labor has been used for apparel so pouring billions into trying to fix the issues hasn't been economical.

https://www.wired.com/story/why-robots-cant-sew-t-shirt/
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ttha_aggie_09
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8:24a, 4/3/25
AG
Following. This is a gamble but I think the short term pain will be worth it as all of the dominoes continue to fall and negotiate for better trade deals.
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aezmvp
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 8:29a, 4/3/25
Gigemags382 said:
Why such a strong reaction by the market now (down about 3.5% pre-market)? Hasn't it pretty much been known for a while now that the tariffs would be enacted today? I guess the market as whole was assuming Trump wouldn't actually go through with it?
Eh I think the market had factored in 10-20% tariffs and stuff on SE Asia being that high and China going to 54% were a massive shock. I won't lie, it's high. But this will push people to reshore here to the US no doubt.
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Im Gipper
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8:40a, 4/3/25



For someone as Trump who has been media masesro for the better part of 40 years, why does he have some many clowns in terms of PR around him?

I'm Gipper
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