Do "healthy" 10% corrections usually occur in the span of 48 hours, caused by someone mashing a "blow up global markets" button?MagnumLoad said:
So far this is about a 9% correction. They happen and this one was coming.
*****Official Reciprocal Tariff Thread*****
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Last: 2 days ago by nortex97
Name checks out. You tell us!Correction said:Do "healthy" 10% corrections usually occur in the span of 48 hours, caused by someone mashing a "blow up global markets" button?MagnumLoad said:
So far this is about a 9% correction. They happen and this one was coming.
BusterAg said:Rocking the boat and making some waves is preferable than continuing to take it up the kiester for the sake of getting along.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:
Very few people are happy about 4/2. Including me. He campaigned on reciprocal tariffs. That is not what he delivered. I am pissed.
However, using short term stock movements is not a good way to measure long term economic policy. Too much noise.
Oh, and equities are still around 19 forward P/E, which is over historical medians. We are only in correction mode right now.
Tie it to long term economic expectations then: who in their right mind is pouring capital expenditures anywhere globally for the foreseeable future when the largest economic power imposes massive sweeping taxes on a random and flawed formula that seems to have happened out of nowhere?
It's basically a formula to guarantee a global recession.
Even if this dictates a bunch of free trade agreements, you've basically spooked the entire economy into absolute skiddishness possibly for years to come.
Were you born in Canada?
Were you born in Canada? This clown <rolls eyes>. You seem to be moaning about execution of this all over the place. Execution matters when you are an executive. Any way you look at it, this was a massive **** up.
Risk appetite and landscape matters. Trump has just gone and destroyed the global risk landscape. It's no doubt going to destroy demand and there's really no natural reason to destroy demand. No famines or significant scarcity anywhere globally so no reason to destroy global demand. The execution of this was awful.
Correction said:
MAGA Twitter may want to keep workshopping their messaging, not sure this one's gonna carry the day:Losing money means nothing. Digital ones and zeroes. In the end, you won't miss any of it.
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) April 4, 2025
Losing your country costs you everything. You will never get that back. Your kids will be slaves to foreign powers who hate us.
Without America First policies, we become slaves. Fight... pic.twitter.com/Mj3jbVvLqG
Do you think that equities were fairly priced before the tariff thing?Correction said:Do "healthy" 10% corrections usually occur in the span of 48 hours, caused by someone mashing a "blow up global markets" button?MagnumLoad said:
So far this is about a 9% correction. They happen and this one was coming.
I thought they were pretty expensive.
Surely he's was paid to say this. This is… something else.Correction said:
MAGA Twitter may want to keep workshopping their messaging, not sure this one's gonna carry the day:Losing money means nothing. Digital ones and zeroes. In the end, you won't miss any of it.
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) April 4, 2025
Losing your country costs you everything. You will never get that back. Your kids will be slaves to foreign powers who hate us.
Without America First policies, we become slaves. Fight... pic.twitter.com/Mj3jbVvLqG
This was a massive mistake by Trump. I have said so many, many times today.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:Rocking the boat and making some waves is preferable than continuing to take it up the kiester for the sake of getting along.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:
Very few people are happy about 4/2. Including me. He campaigned on reciprocal tariffs. That is not what he delivered. I am pissed.
However, using short term stock movements is not a good way to measure long term economic policy. Too much noise.
Oh, and equities are still around 19 forward P/E, which is over historical medians. We are only in correction mode right now.
Tie it to long term economic expectations then: who in their right mind is pouring capital expenditures anywhere globally for the foreseeable future when the largest economic power imposes massive sweeping taxes on a random and flawed formula that seems to have happened out of nowhere?
It's basically a formula to guarantee a global recession.
Even if this dictates a bunch of free trade agreements, you've basically spooked the entire economy into absolute skiddishness possibly for years to come.
Were you born in Canada?
Were you born in Canada? This clown <rolls eyes>. You seem to be moaning about execution of this all over the place. Execution matters when you are an executive. Any way you look at it, this was a massive **** up.
Risk appetite and landscape matters. Trump has just gone and destroyed the global risk landscape. It's no doubt going to destroy demand and there's really no natural reason to destroy demand. No famines or significant scarcity anywhere globally so no reason to destroy global demand. The execution of this was awful.
But, rocking the boat on tariffs was going to happen, and needed to happen. Trump's irrationality threw everything into more chaos than needed, but, the status quo was not going to work. A ton of the country is not happy with where the economy was going. We had growth, but it was concentrated along certain sectors. Our trade policies exasperated that. To keep going down that road was to risk an even crazier right wing nut, or a left wing populist like Berny, who absolutely could have won in 2016 if the Dems really believed in democracy. A left wing populist would be absolutely catastrophic to this country.
You have to consider the socio-political costs when you look at these things, a pure economic analysis won't cut it.
But, short term stock movements are not a good measuring stick for long term economic policy. It's amateurish and myopic. Forward P/E is still above historical medians. We are still in correction mode until S&P 500 dips below 4,900. We will see what happens on Monday.
I am a buyer at 4,500.
"Fairly priced"?? Prices are real, they reflect effective risk / interest rate discount of future free cash flow. All that happened is future free cash flows went down and/or the interest rate discount/ risk premium went up.
I mean, if you truly believed this then surely you made a killing shorting the market right?
I mean, if you truly believed this then surely you made a killing shorting the market right?
BusterAg said:This was a massive mistake by Trump. I have said so many, many times today.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:Rocking the boat and making some waves is preferable than continuing to take it up the kiester for the sake of getting along.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:
Very few people are happy about 4/2. Including me. He campaigned on reciprocal tariffs. That is not what he delivered. I am pissed.
However, using short term stock movements is not a good way to measure long term economic policy. Too much noise.
Oh, and equities are still around 19 forward P/E, which is over historical medians. We are only in correction mode right now.
Tie it to long term economic expectations then: who in their right mind is pouring capital expenditures anywhere globally for the foreseeable future when the largest economic power imposes massive sweeping taxes on a random and flawed formula that seems to have happened out of nowhere?
It's basically a formula to guarantee a global recession.
Even if this dictates a bunch of free trade agreements, you've basically spooked the entire economy into absolute skiddishness possibly for years to come.
Were you born in Canada?
Were you born in Canada? This clown <rolls eyes>. You seem to be moaning about execution of this all over the place. Execution matters when you are an executive. Any way you look at it, this was a massive **** up.
Risk appetite and landscape matters. Trump has just gone and destroyed the global risk landscape. It's no doubt going to destroy demand and there's really no natural reason to destroy demand. No famines or significant scarcity anywhere globally so no reason to destroy global demand. The execution of this was awful.
But, rocking the boat on tariffs was going to happen, and needed to happen. Trump's irrationality threw everything into more chaos than needed, but, the status quo was not going to work. A ton of the country is not happy with where the economy was going. We had growth, but it was concentrated along certain sectors. Our trade policies exasperated that. To keep going down that road was to risk an even crazier right wing nut, or a left wing populist like Berny, who absolutely could have won in 2016 if the Dems really believed in democracy. A left wing populist would be absolutely catastrophic to this country.
You have to consider the socio-political costs when you look at these things, a pure economic analysis won't cut it.
But, short term stock movements are not a good measuring stick for long term economic policy. It's amateurish and myopic. Forward P/E is still above historical medians. We are still in correction mode until S&P 500 dips below 4,900. We will see what happens on Monday.
I am a buyer at 4,500.
Your argument makes no sense to me. You are talking about 'corrections' on historical data right after a massive and sweeping trade upending has been announced by the world's largest economy and keep talking about stocks being overvalued so tell me what was good value before tariff and what's good value now?
I'll say it over and over again. You say it is amateurish and myopic… but if capital is spooked and manufacturing remains naturally cheaper in other locations (it will be)… the tariffs merely serve as a regressive tax for Americans probably in the short term and you've created an uninvestable global landscape for the time being. You keep saying waves needed to be made and that's fine. But needing waves and creating a tsunami to get them does nobody any good.
I don't agree with BusterAg on everything, but stocks WERE overvalued. Or if you prefer, they were massively overbought.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:This was a massive mistake by Trump. I have said so many, many times today.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:Rocking the boat and making some waves is preferable than continuing to take it up the kiester for the sake of getting along.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:
Very few people are happy about 4/2. Including me. He campaigned on reciprocal tariffs. That is not what he delivered. I am pissed.
However, using short term stock movements is not a good way to measure long term economic policy. Too much noise.
Oh, and equities are still around 19 forward P/E, which is over historical medians. We are only in correction mode right now.
Tie it to long term economic expectations then: who in their right mind is pouring capital expenditures anywhere globally for the foreseeable future when the largest economic power imposes massive sweeping taxes on a random and flawed formula that seems to have happened out of nowhere?
It's basically a formula to guarantee a global recession.
Even if this dictates a bunch of free trade agreements, you've basically spooked the entire economy into absolute skiddishness possibly for years to come.
Were you born in Canada?
Were you born in Canada? This clown <rolls eyes>. You seem to be moaning about execution of this all over the place. Execution matters when you are an executive. Any way you look at it, this was a massive **** up.
Risk appetite and landscape matters. Trump has just gone and destroyed the global risk landscape. It's no doubt going to destroy demand and there's really no natural reason to destroy demand. No famines or significant scarcity anywhere globally so no reason to destroy global demand. The execution of this was awful.
But, rocking the boat on tariffs was going to happen, and needed to happen. Trump's irrationality threw everything into more chaos than needed, but, the status quo was not going to work. A ton of the country is not happy with where the economy was going. We had growth, but it was concentrated along certain sectors. Our trade policies exasperated that. To keep going down that road was to risk an even crazier right wing nut, or a left wing populist like Berny, who absolutely could have won in 2016 if the Dems really believed in democracy. A left wing populist would be absolutely catastrophic to this country.
You have to consider the socio-political costs when you look at these things, a pure economic analysis won't cut it.
But, short term stock movements are not a good measuring stick for long term economic policy. It's amateurish and myopic. Forward P/E is still above historical medians. We are still in correction mode until S&P 500 dips below 4,900. We will see what happens on Monday.
I am a buyer at 4,500.
Your argument makes no sense to me. You are talking about 'corrections' on historical data right after a massive and sweeping trade upending has been announced by the world's largest economy and keep talking about stocks being overvalued so tell me what was good value before tariff and what's good value now?
I'll say it over and over again. You say it is amateurish and myopic… but if capital is spooked and manufacturing remains naturally cheaper in other locations (it will be)… the tariffs merely serve as a regressive tax for Americans probably in the short term and you've created an uninvestable global landscape for the time being. You keep saying waves needed to be made and that's fine. But needing waves and creating a tsunami to get them does nobody any good.
They were a correction waiting to happen and just needed a trigger. Sometimes that trigger is cyclical economic conditions. And sometimes that trigger is an off-the-rails trade policy.
Time in the market is better than timing the market.Zobel said:
"Fairly priced"?? Prices are real, they reflect effective risk / interest rate discount of future free cash flow. All that happened is future free cash flows went down and/or the interest rate discount/ risk premium went up.
I mean, if you truly believed this then surely you made a killing shorting the market right?
To make money shorting, you have to be right about two things: direction and timing.
I rarely short stocks. When I do, it is because I believe I have asymmetrical information (not inside information, there is a difference) that will come to light in the near future.
Most of my savings is in real estate right now. I have rental houses I bought prior to the pricing boom with 4% mortgages on them. The coming inflation was not properly priced into RE prices or mortgage rates. Been doing good so far.
It will be time to buy equities again when the S&P 500 dips below $4,500.
Finally, valuations reflect current opinions on future cash flows and the riskiness of those cash flows. They are all just opinions. Sometimes prices move way outside of rational valuation opinions. Bubbles do happen, and are real.
1. ignite a global trade warCorrection said:
MAGA Twitter may want to keep workshopping their messaging, not sure this one's gonna carry the day:Losing money means nothing. Digital ones and zeroes. In the end, you won't miss any of it.
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) April 4, 2025
Losing your country costs you everything. You will never get that back. Your kids will be slaves to foreign powers who hate us.
Without America First policies, we become slaves. Fight... pic.twitter.com/Mj3jbVvLqG
2. unite our enemies and allies against us
3. tank the markets
4. ????
5. america is saved
all according to the master plan
The most important thing here is that early April will be the most uncertain time when it comes to the global economy. Those risk premiums will start to go down as we get to understand the new normal. And, a new normal was required in order to avoid the US completely imploding.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:This was a massive mistake by Trump. I have said so many, many times today.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:Rocking the boat and making some waves is preferable than continuing to take it up the kiester for the sake of getting along.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:
Very few people are happy about 4/2. Including me. He campaigned on reciprocal tariffs. That is not what he delivered. I am pissed.
However, using short term stock movements is not a good way to measure long term economic policy. Too much noise.
Oh, and equities are still around 19 forward P/E, which is over historical medians. We are only in correction mode right now.
Tie it to long term economic expectations then: who in their right mind is pouring capital expenditures anywhere globally for the foreseeable future when the largest economic power imposes massive sweeping taxes on a random and flawed formula that seems to have happened out of nowhere?
It's basically a formula to guarantee a global recession.
Even if this dictates a bunch of free trade agreements, you've basically spooked the entire economy into absolute skiddishness possibly for years to come.
Were you born in Canada?
Were you born in Canada? This clown <rolls eyes>. You seem to be moaning about execution of this all over the place. Execution matters when you are an executive. Any way you look at it, this was a massive **** up.
Risk appetite and landscape matters. Trump has just gone and destroyed the global risk landscape. It's no doubt going to destroy demand and there's really no natural reason to destroy demand. No famines or significant scarcity anywhere globally so no reason to destroy global demand. The execution of this was awful.
But, rocking the boat on tariffs was going to happen, and needed to happen. Trump's irrationality threw everything into more chaos than needed, but, the status quo was not going to work. A ton of the country is not happy with where the economy was going. We had growth, but it was concentrated along certain sectors. Our trade policies exasperated that. To keep going down that road was to risk an even crazier right wing nut, or a left wing populist like Berny, who absolutely could have won in 2016 if the Dems really believed in democracy. A left wing populist would be absolutely catastrophic to this country.
You have to consider the socio-political costs when you look at these things, a pure economic analysis won't cut it.
But, short term stock movements are not a good measuring stick for long term economic policy. It's amateurish and myopic. Forward P/E is still above historical medians. We are still in correction mode until S&P 500 dips below 4,900. We will see what happens on Monday.
I am a buyer at 4,500.
Your argument makes no sense to me. You are talking about 'corrections' on historical data right after a massive and sweeping trade upending has been announced by the world's largest economy and keep talking about stocks being overvalued so tell me what was good value before tariff and what's good value now?
I'll say it over and over again. You say it is amateurish and myopic… but if capital is spooked and manufacturing remains naturally cheaper in other locations (it will be)… the tariffs merely serve as a regressive tax for Americans probably in the short term and you've created an uninvestable global landscape for the time being. You keep saying waves needed to be made and that's fine. But needing waves and creating a tsunami to get them does nobody any good.
Not all manufacturing will remain naturally cheaper in other locations. The US still has a lot of manufacturing, on things like medical devices, where quality is paramount. The marginal cost of manufacturing in the US is going to go down with AI and further automation. Some of those decisions that were close to 50/50 for onshoring versus offshoring would favor onshoring in a free trade environment. Foreign demand for American goods will go up if foreign tariffs are reduced. We can agree to disagree whether or not free trade or reciprocal tariffs would bring more manufacturing into the US, especially in a 2025 environment with AI, less global poverty, and a global economy where every single developed country protects their manufacturing from US competition through tariffs. Its all just speculation either way.
One good thing about throwing the world into Chaos is that investing long term in the US seems to be the least risky option. Kind of Machiavellian, but, also true.
Memaw don't know nuttin' 'bout no tarrifs, but she don't like 'em.
Your first mistake is making "The Benny Show" some sort of spokesperson for MAGA.Old McDonald said:1. ignite a global trade warCorrection said:
MAGA Twitter may want to keep workshopping their messaging, not sure this one's gonna carry the day:Losing money means nothing. Digital ones and zeroes. In the end, you won't miss any of it.
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) April 4, 2025
Losing your country costs you everything. You will never get that back. Your kids will be slaves to foreign powers who hate us.
Without America First policies, we become slaves. Fight... pic.twitter.com/Mj3jbVvLqG
2. unite our enemies and allies against us
3. tank the markets
4. ????
5. america is saved
all according to the master plan
I agree with you that Benny sounds stupid here.
BusterAg said:The most important thing here is that early April will be the most uncertain time when it comes to the global economy. Those risk premiums will start to go down as we get to understand the new normal. And, a new normal was required in order to avoid the US completely imploding.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:This was a massive mistake by Trump. I have said so many, many times today.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:Rocking the boat and making some waves is preferable than continuing to take it up the kiester for the sake of getting along.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:
Very few people are happy about 4/2. Including me. He campaigned on reciprocal tariffs. That is not what he delivered. I am pissed.
However, using short term stock movements is not a good way to measure long term economic policy. Too much noise.
Oh, and equities are still around 19 forward P/E, which is over historical medians. We are only in correction mode right now.
Tie it to long term economic expectations then: who in their right mind is pouring capital expenditures anywhere globally for the foreseeable future when the largest economic power imposes massive sweeping taxes on a random and flawed formula that seems to have happened out of nowhere?
It's basically a formula to guarantee a global recession.
Even if this dictates a bunch of free trade agreements, you've basically spooked the entire economy into absolute skiddishness possibly for years to come.
Were you born in Canada?
Were you born in Canada? This clown <rolls eyes>. You seem to be moaning about execution of this all over the place. Execution matters when you are an executive. Any way you look at it, this was a massive **** up.
Risk appetite and landscape matters. Trump has just gone and destroyed the global risk landscape. It's no doubt going to destroy demand and there's really no natural reason to destroy demand. No famines or significant scarcity anywhere globally so no reason to destroy global demand. The execution of this was awful.
But, rocking the boat on tariffs was going to happen, and needed to happen. Trump's irrationality threw everything into more chaos than needed, but, the status quo was not going to work. A ton of the country is not happy with where the economy was going. We had growth, but it was concentrated along certain sectors. Our trade policies exasperated that. To keep going down that road was to risk an even crazier right wing nut, or a left wing populist like Berny, who absolutely could have won in 2016 if the Dems really believed in democracy. A left wing populist would be absolutely catastrophic to this country.
You have to consider the socio-political costs when you look at these things, a pure economic analysis won't cut it.
But, short term stock movements are not a good measuring stick for long term economic policy. It's amateurish and myopic. Forward P/E is still above historical medians. We are still in correction mode until S&P 500 dips below 4,900. We will see what happens on Monday.
I am a buyer at 4,500.
Your argument makes no sense to me. You are talking about 'corrections' on historical data right after a massive and sweeping trade upending has been announced by the world's largest economy and keep talking about stocks being overvalued so tell me what was good value before tariff and what's good value now?
I'll say it over and over again. You say it is amateurish and myopic… but if capital is spooked and manufacturing remains naturally cheaper in other locations (it will be)… the tariffs merely serve as a regressive tax for Americans probably in the short term and you've created an uninvestable global landscape for the time being. You keep saying waves needed to be made and that's fine. But needing waves and creating a tsunami to get them does nobody any good.
Not all manufacturing will remain naturally cheaper in other locations. The US still has a lot of manufacturing, on things like medical devices, where quality is paramount. The marginal cost of manufacturing in the US is going to go down with AI and further automation. Some of those decisions that were close to 50/50 for onshoring versus offshoring would favor onshoring in a free trade environment. Foreign demand for American goods will go up if foreign tariffs are reduced. We can agree to disagree whether or not free trade or reciprocal tariffs would bring more manufacturing into the US, especially in a 2025 environment with AI, less global poverty, and a global economy where every single developed country protects their manufacturing from US competition through tariffs. Its all just speculation either way.
One good thing about throwing the world into Chaos is that investing long term in the US seems to be the least risky option. Kind of Machiavellian, but, also true.
AI and automation aren't exclusive to the US. Manufacturing should (as it has since the dawn of manufacturing) get cheaper and more efficient everywhere with technology. The other flaw in your argument is in a world of economic uncertainty, every nation's incentive is going to be to protect their own output. As such, you can't just assume lower price in a completely uncertain world = increased demand for your goods.
Lastly, if you believe the premise that marginal cost of manufacturing will go down in the US relative to other countries… that's fine. It's a free market and logical argument to make. But it also flies in the face of any logic in the sweeping tariffs just implemented.
Here's a fun wrinkle, according to an analysis by the AEI, the administration totally misunderstood the study they were relying upon and mis-applied the associated math therein in their already-dubious calculation used to arrive at "other countries' tariffs charged to the US."
Lots of countries crawling back.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer seeks new trade deal with the U.S to remove tariffs
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) April 4, 2025
— AtlantaStu (@AtlantaStu) April 5, 2025
Oh it's happening. It will be fun to see if Vietnam and the UK are among the first wave announced.
1) There is no country in the world that is better at inventing new technology than the US.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:The most important thing here is that early April will be the most uncertain time when it comes to the global economy. Those risk premiums will start to go down as we get to understand the new normal. And, a new normal was required in order to avoid the US completely imploding.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:This was a massive mistake by Trump. I have said so many, many times today.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:Rocking the boat and making some waves is preferable than continuing to take it up the kiester for the sake of getting along.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:
Very few people are happy about 4/2. Including me. He campaigned on reciprocal tariffs. That is not what he delivered. I am pissed.
However, using short term stock movements is not a good way to measure long term economic policy. Too much noise.
Oh, and equities are still around 19 forward P/E, which is over historical medians. We are only in correction mode right now.
Tie it to long term economic expectations then: who in their right mind is pouring capital expenditures anywhere globally for the foreseeable future when the largest economic power imposes massive sweeping taxes on a random and flawed formula that seems to have happened out of nowhere?
It's basically a formula to guarantee a global recession.
Even if this dictates a bunch of free trade agreements, you've basically spooked the entire economy into absolute skiddishness possibly for years to come.
Were you born in Canada?
Were you born in Canada? This clown <rolls eyes>. You seem to be moaning about execution of this all over the place. Execution matters when you are an executive. Any way you look at it, this was a massive **** up.
Risk appetite and landscape matters. Trump has just gone and destroyed the global risk landscape. It's no doubt going to destroy demand and there's really no natural reason to destroy demand. No famines or significant scarcity anywhere globally so no reason to destroy global demand. The execution of this was awful.
But, rocking the boat on tariffs was going to happen, and needed to happen. Trump's irrationality threw everything into more chaos than needed, but, the status quo was not going to work. A ton of the country is not happy with where the economy was going. We had growth, but it was concentrated along certain sectors. Our trade policies exasperated that. To keep going down that road was to risk an even crazier right wing nut, or a left wing populist like Berny, who absolutely could have won in 2016 if the Dems really believed in democracy. A left wing populist would be absolutely catastrophic to this country.
You have to consider the socio-political costs when you look at these things, a pure economic analysis won't cut it.
But, short term stock movements are not a good measuring stick for long term economic policy. It's amateurish and myopic. Forward P/E is still above historical medians. We are still in correction mode until S&P 500 dips below 4,900. We will see what happens on Monday.
I am a buyer at 4,500.
Your argument makes no sense to me. You are talking about 'corrections' on historical data right after a massive and sweeping trade upending has been announced by the world's largest economy and keep talking about stocks being overvalued so tell me what was good value before tariff and what's good value now?
I'll say it over and over again. You say it is amateurish and myopic… but if capital is spooked and manufacturing remains naturally cheaper in other locations (it will be)… the tariffs merely serve as a regressive tax for Americans probably in the short term and you've created an uninvestable global landscape for the time being. You keep saying waves needed to be made and that's fine. But needing waves and creating a tsunami to get them does nobody any good.
Not all manufacturing will remain naturally cheaper in other locations. The US still has a lot of manufacturing, on things like medical devices, where quality is paramount. The marginal cost of manufacturing in the US is going to go down with AI and further automation. Some of those decisions that were close to 50/50 for onshoring versus offshoring would favor onshoring in a free trade environment. Foreign demand for American goods will go up if foreign tariffs are reduced. We can agree to disagree whether or not free trade or reciprocal tariffs would bring more manufacturing into the US, especially in a 2025 environment with AI, less global poverty, and a global economy where every single developed country protects their manufacturing from US competition through tariffs. Its all just speculation either way.
One good thing about throwing the world into Chaos is that investing long term in the US seems to be the least risky option. Kind of Machiavellian, but, also true.
AI and automation aren't exclusive to the US. Manufacturing should (as it has since the dawn of manufacturing) get cheaper and more efficient everywhere with technology. The other flaw in your argument is in a world of economic uncertainty, every nation's incentive is going to be to protect their own output. As such, you can't just assume lower price in a completely uncertain world = increased demand for your goods.
Lastly, if you believe the premise that marginal cost of manufacturing will go down in the US relative to other countries… that's fine. It's a free market and logical argument to make. But it also flies in the face of any logic in the sweeping tariffs just implemented.
2) There is no country in the world that is better at implementing and commercializing new technology than the US.
3) There is no country in the world that has the work ethic, and related ability to consume, than the US. We are far and away the largest consumer market in the world.
4) There is no country in the world that is better at stealing manufacturing inventions and manufacturing technologies than China.
5) We are on the precipice of significant innovation in high tech manufacturing.
The worst economic strategy given the above (willing to listen to any critiques of any of the above) is the status quo. We need to leverage the new manufacturing technology that we develop without giving it away to an antagonistic trading partner for free. We made that mistake from 1990 through 2020. It was a huge mistake.
If the price for that is some significant economic uncertainty in the short and early medium term, it is almost assuredly worth it.
April is going to be key.nortex97 said:— AtlantaStu (@AtlantaStu) April 5, 2025
Oh it's happening. It will be fun to see if Vietnam and the UK are among the first wave announced.
Trump can win 2028 with a lot of new trade agreements this month, or be swept into the dustbin of failed arrogant *******s if he rebuffs requests for free trade deals.
We shall see.
I am hopeful, but apprehensive.
Jeeper79 said:I don't agree with BusterAg on everything, but stocks WERE overvalued. Or if you prefer, they were massively overbought.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:This was a massive mistake by Trump. I have said so many, many times today.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:Rocking the boat and making some waves is preferable than continuing to take it up the kiester for the sake of getting along.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:
Very few people are happy about 4/2. Including me. He campaigned on reciprocal tariffs. That is not what he delivered. I am pissed.
However, using short term stock movements is not a good way to measure long term economic policy. Too much noise.
Oh, and equities are still around 19 forward P/E, which is over historical medians. We are only in correction mode right now.
Tie it to long term economic expectations then: who in their right mind is pouring capital expenditures anywhere globally for the foreseeable future when the largest economic power imposes massive sweeping taxes on a random and flawed formula that seems to have happened out of nowhere?
It's basically a formula to guarantee a global recession.
Even if this dictates a bunch of free trade agreements, you've basically spooked the entire economy into absolute skiddishness possibly for years to come.
Were you born in Canada?
Were you born in Canada? This clown <rolls eyes>. You seem to be moaning about execution of this all over the place. Execution matters when you are an executive. Any way you look at it, this was a massive **** up.
Risk appetite and landscape matters. Trump has just gone and destroyed the global risk landscape. It's no doubt going to destroy demand and there's really no natural reason to destroy demand. No famines or significant scarcity anywhere globally so no reason to destroy global demand. The execution of this was awful.
But, rocking the boat on tariffs was going to happen, and needed to happen. Trump's irrationality threw everything into more chaos than needed, but, the status quo was not going to work. A ton of the country is not happy with where the economy was going. We had growth, but it was concentrated along certain sectors. Our trade policies exasperated that. To keep going down that road was to risk an even crazier right wing nut, or a left wing populist like Berny, who absolutely could have won in 2016 if the Dems really believed in democracy. A left wing populist would be absolutely catastrophic to this country.
You have to consider the socio-political costs when you look at these things, a pure economic analysis won't cut it.
But, short term stock movements are not a good measuring stick for long term economic policy. It's amateurish and myopic. Forward P/E is still above historical medians. We are still in correction mode until S&P 500 dips below 4,900. We will see what happens on Monday.
I am a buyer at 4,500.
Your argument makes no sense to me. You are talking about 'corrections' on historical data right after a massive and sweeping trade upending has been announced by the world's largest economy and keep talking about stocks being overvalued so tell me what was good value before tariff and what's good value now?
I'll say it over and over again. You say it is amateurish and myopic… but if capital is spooked and manufacturing remains naturally cheaper in other locations (it will be)… the tariffs merely serve as a regressive tax for Americans probably in the short term and you've created an uninvestable global landscape for the time being. You keep saying waves needed to be made and that's fine. But needing waves and creating a tsunami to get them does nobody any good.
They were a correction waiting to happen and just needed a trigger. Sometimes that trigger is cyclical economic conditions. And sometimes that trigger is an off-the-rails trade policy.
How many of these were caused by the direct action of the sitting president?
BusterAg said:April is going to be key.nortex97 said:— AtlantaStu (@AtlantaStu) April 5, 2025
Oh it's happening. It will be fun to see if Vietnam and the UK are among the first wave announced.
Trump can win 2028 with a lot of new trade agreements this month, or be swept into the dustbin of failed arrogant *******s if he rebuffs requests for free trade deals.
We shall see.
I am hopeful, but apprehensive.
Care to elaborate?
Wow, so it's not even in the top 10. Thx. How many of these below were the result of a direct action by President Trump? Spoiler alert: all of them. Thank you DJT.Quote:
How many of these were caused by the direct action of the sitting president?
Smart nations lining up for deals:
More at the link.Quote:
Instead of screaming and yelling at President Trump's tariff schedule, as the European Union and China are doing, smart nations have taken the side door to cut deals with President Trump and get their nations off the tariffs list entirely.
It's as if they are sorting themselves out, smart ones from dumb ones.
Start with Argentina, which got the deal done immediately:🇺🇸🇦🇷 UNITED STATES AND ARGENTINA BECOME THE FIRST ZERO-TARIFF COUNTRIES
— George Papadopoulos (@GeorgePapa19) April 4, 2025
Presidents Trump and Milei will sign the first international trade agreement free of tariffs for both American and Argentine products.
This is how negotiations should be done pic.twitter.com/TTcVpOXQ8U
…Cambodia cutting tariffs to 5% fm 15%. List of nations grows wanting tariff deals, watch @EveningEdit tonite for full list. This is the greatest recession that has yet to happen. pic.twitter.com/1n2r0TOuzG
— Elizabeth MacDonald (@LizMacDonaldFOX) April 4, 2025
…BREAKING: Israel Has Removed ALL TARIFFS On American Products & Therefore Will Have ZERO Tarrifs Issued By @POTUS Trump.
— John Basham (@JohnBasham) April 1, 2025
ANY NATION Wishing Not To Be Tarrifed Can Do The Same. pic.twitter.com/zNiMs8U5tA
…BREAKING: Already Israel, India, the EU, Japan, Vietnam, and Cambodia all plan to drop tariffs if Trump agrees to do the same.
— TaraBull (@TaraBull808) April 4, 2025
Weird Trump's plan is actually working as intended. pic.twitter.com/1OkxazwsUt
Doesnt matter how unique it is. A trigger is a trigger. Even if Trump hadn't done this, we still would have eventually had a reckoning. Most people I know think it would have happened in Q2.GarlandAg2012 said:Jeeper79 said:I don't agree with BusterAg on everything, but stocks WERE overvalued. Or if you prefer, they were massively overbought.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:This was a massive mistake by Trump. I have said so many, many times today.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:Rocking the boat and making some waves is preferable than continuing to take it up the kiester for the sake of getting along.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:
Very few people are happy about 4/2. Including me. He campaigned on reciprocal tariffs. That is not what he delivered. I am pissed.
However, using short term stock movements is not a good way to measure long term economic policy. Too much noise.
Oh, and equities are still around 19 forward P/E, which is over historical medians. We are only in correction mode right now.
Tie it to long term economic expectations then: who in their right mind is pouring capital expenditures anywhere globally for the foreseeable future when the largest economic power imposes massive sweeping taxes on a random and flawed formula that seems to have happened out of nowhere?
It's basically a formula to guarantee a global recession.
Even if this dictates a bunch of free trade agreements, you've basically spooked the entire economy into absolute skiddishness possibly for years to come.
Were you born in Canada?
Were you born in Canada? This clown <rolls eyes>. You seem to be moaning about execution of this all over the place. Execution matters when you are an executive. Any way you look at it, this was a massive **** up.
Risk appetite and landscape matters. Trump has just gone and destroyed the global risk landscape. It's no doubt going to destroy demand and there's really no natural reason to destroy demand. No famines or significant scarcity anywhere globally so no reason to destroy global demand. The execution of this was awful.
But, rocking the boat on tariffs was going to happen, and needed to happen. Trump's irrationality threw everything into more chaos than needed, but, the status quo was not going to work. A ton of the country is not happy with where the economy was going. We had growth, but it was concentrated along certain sectors. Our trade policies exasperated that. To keep going down that road was to risk an even crazier right wing nut, or a left wing populist like Berny, who absolutely could have won in 2016 if the Dems really believed in democracy. A left wing populist would be absolutely catastrophic to this country.
You have to consider the socio-political costs when you look at these things, a pure economic analysis won't cut it.
But, short term stock movements are not a good measuring stick for long term economic policy. It's amateurish and myopic. Forward P/E is still above historical medians. We are still in correction mode until S&P 500 dips below 4,900. We will see what happens on Monday.
I am a buyer at 4,500.
Your argument makes no sense to me. You are talking about 'corrections' on historical data right after a massive and sweeping trade upending has been announced by the world's largest economy and keep talking about stocks being overvalued so tell me what was good value before tariff and what's good value now?
I'll say it over and over again. You say it is amateurish and myopic… but if capital is spooked and manufacturing remains naturally cheaper in other locations (it will be)… the tariffs merely serve as a regressive tax for Americans probably in the short term and you've created an uninvestable global landscape for the time being. You keep saying waves needed to be made and that's fine. But needing waves and creating a tsunami to get them does nobody any good.
They were a correction waiting to happen and just needed a trigger. Sometimes that trigger is cyclical economic conditions. And sometimes that trigger is an off-the-rails trade policy.
How many of these were caused by the direct action of the sitting president?
And this is coming from someone that thinks these tariffs are one of the worst moves by a president in the 21st century. It's right up there with invading Iraq, Obamacare and student loan forgiveness.
Trump is already tariffing countries that don't tariff us. What has he done to suggest he'll drop these, even if the likes of the EU drop theirs?nortex97 said:Wow, so it's not even in the top 10. Thx. How many of these below were the result of a direct action by President Trump? Spoiler alert: all of them. Thank you DJT.Quote:
How many of these were caused by the direct action of the sitting president?
Smart nations lining up for deals:More at the link.Quote:
Instead of screaming and yelling at President Trump's tariff schedule, as the European Union and China are doing, smart nations have taken the side door to cut deals with President Trump and get their nations off the tariffs list entirely.
It's as if they are sorting themselves out, smart ones from dumb ones.
Start with Argentina, which got the deal done immediately:🇺🇸🇦🇷 UNITED STATES AND ARGENTINA BECOME THE FIRST ZERO-TARIFF COUNTRIES
— George Papadopoulos (@GeorgePapa19) April 4, 2025
Presidents Trump and Milei will sign the first international trade agreement free of tariffs for both American and Argentine products.
This is how negotiations should be done pic.twitter.com/TTcVpOXQ8U
…Cambodia cutting tariffs to 5% fm 15%. List of nations grows wanting tariff deals, watch @EveningEdit tonite for full list. This is the greatest recession that has yet to happen. pic.twitter.com/1n2r0TOuzG
— Elizabeth MacDonald (@LizMacDonaldFOX) April 4, 2025
…BREAKING: Israel Has Removed ALL TARIFFS On American Products & Therefore Will Have ZERO Tarrifs Issued By @POTUS Trump.
— John Basham (@JohnBasham) April 1, 2025
ANY NATION Wishing Not To Be Tarrifed Can Do The Same. pic.twitter.com/zNiMs8U5tA
…BREAKING: Already Israel, India, the EU, Japan, Vietnam, and Cambodia all plan to drop tariffs if Trump agrees to do the same.
— TaraBull (@TaraBull808) April 4, 2025
Weird Trump's plan is actually working as intended. pic.twitter.com/1OkxazwsUt
Wait, you think it's a bad move? I never would have guessed from your 10,000 posts on the subject. I'm glad you put that qualifier out there or we'd be in the dark as to your stance.Jeeper79 said:Doesnt matter how unique it is. A trigger is a trigger. Even if Trump hadn't done this, we still would have eventually had a reckoning. Most people I know think it would have happened in Q2.GarlandAg2012 said:Jeeper79 said:I don't agree with BusterAg on everything, but stocks WERE overvalued. Or if you prefer, they were massively overbought.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:This was a massive mistake by Trump. I have said so many, many times today.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:Rocking the boat and making some waves is preferable than continuing to take it up the kiester for the sake of getting along.ATM9000 said:BusterAg said:
Very few people are happy about 4/2. Including me. He campaigned on reciprocal tariffs. That is not what he delivered. I am pissed.
However, using short term stock movements is not a good way to measure long term economic policy. Too much noise.
Oh, and equities are still around 19 forward P/E, which is over historical medians. We are only in correction mode right now.
Tie it to long term economic expectations then: who in their right mind is pouring capital expenditures anywhere globally for the foreseeable future when the largest economic power imposes massive sweeping taxes on a random and flawed formula that seems to have happened out of nowhere?
It's basically a formula to guarantee a global recession.
Even if this dictates a bunch of free trade agreements, you've basically spooked the entire economy into absolute skiddishness possibly for years to come.
Were you born in Canada?
Were you born in Canada? This clown <rolls eyes>. You seem to be moaning about execution of this all over the place. Execution matters when you are an executive. Any way you look at it, this was a massive **** up.
Risk appetite and landscape matters. Trump has just gone and destroyed the global risk landscape. It's no doubt going to destroy demand and there's really no natural reason to destroy demand. No famines or significant scarcity anywhere globally so no reason to destroy global demand. The execution of this was awful.
But, rocking the boat on tariffs was going to happen, and needed to happen. Trump's irrationality threw everything into more chaos than needed, but, the status quo was not going to work. A ton of the country is not happy with where the economy was going. We had growth, but it was concentrated along certain sectors. Our trade policies exasperated that. To keep going down that road was to risk an even crazier right wing nut, or a left wing populist like Berny, who absolutely could have won in 2016 if the Dems really believed in democracy. A left wing populist would be absolutely catastrophic to this country.
You have to consider the socio-political costs when you look at these things, a pure economic analysis won't cut it.
But, short term stock movements are not a good measuring stick for long term economic policy. It's amateurish and myopic. Forward P/E is still above historical medians. We are still in correction mode until S&P 500 dips below 4,900. We will see what happens on Monday.
I am a buyer at 4,500.
Your argument makes no sense to me. You are talking about 'corrections' on historical data right after a massive and sweeping trade upending has been announced by the world's largest economy and keep talking about stocks being overvalued so tell me what was good value before tariff and what's good value now?
I'll say it over and over again. You say it is amateurish and myopic… but if capital is spooked and manufacturing remains naturally cheaper in other locations (it will be)… the tariffs merely serve as a regressive tax for Americans probably in the short term and you've created an uninvestable global landscape for the time being. You keep saying waves needed to be made and that's fine. But needing waves and creating a tsunami to get them does nobody any good.
They were a correction waiting to happen and just needed a trigger. Sometimes that trigger is cyclical economic conditions. And sometimes that trigger is an off-the-rails trade policy.
How many of these were caused by the direct action of the sitting president?
And this is coming from someone that thinks these tariffs are one of the worst moves by a president in the 21st century. It's right up there with invading Iraq, Obamacare and student loan forgiveness.
Apparently Trump-Argentina/Milei will sign an agreement shortly. You may not believe it but that's the report/word on the street.
Don’t cry For Me Argentina!
— BEST OF BRITISH 🇬🇧 (@scalyonee1977) April 4, 2025
As the first Country to get Zero tariffs from the USA
THE DOMINO EFFECT ⏰ https://t.co/ln0HoBCfMP
nortex97 said:Wow, so it's not even in the top 10.Quote:
How many of these were caused by the direct action of the sitting president?
The goalkeeping keeps reaching new heights. Not even in the top 10 worst days...so much winning!
trump has been consistent on this issue for decades. There's no reason to believe these tariffs will come down on his watch unless the opposing parties drop their barriers...and, in the case of China and Mexico, stop importing fentanyl into the US.
Trump supporters need to realize this is a long and treacherous journey...but one that needs to be taken. The Left, in all of their insincerity and disdain for everyday Americans, will be competitive in threads like this and daily rhetoric for the foreseeable future. Meh.
Trump supporters need to realize this is a long and treacherous journey...but one that needs to be taken. The Left, in all of their insincerity and disdain for everyday Americans, will be competitive in threads like this and daily rhetoric for the foreseeable future. Meh.
I mean, win for the GOP. Trump is not going to seek a 3rd term. Inaccurate brevity there.GarlandAg2012 said:BusterAg said:April is going to be key.nortex97 said:— AtlantaStu (@AtlantaStu) April 5, 2025
Oh it's happening. It will be fun to see if Vietnam and the UK are among the first wave announced.
Trump can win 2028 with a lot of new trade agreements this month, or be swept into the dustbin of failed arrogant *******s if he rebuffs requests for free trade deals.
We shall see.
I am hopeful, but apprehensive.
Care to elaborate?
No way Trump even tries to run in 2028. Thanks for the call out.
My guess is you'll see this in Israel, Vietnam and then a few others. Paired with commitments to purchase more from US companies and farmers. I'd bet you'll see a lot of Caterpillar, Deere and high export items along with grain and meat purchased as part of deals to lower trade balances and create a free trade zone that directly challenges China.
Yep. Oh look, Starmer to surrender on Monday.
He's one of the weakest 'leaders' of note on the world stage now that Trudeau is retired, imho.
Follow for the very latest political news!
— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) April 5, 2025
He will say he understands Trump’s economic nationalism and why it is popular with voters who believe they have seen no benefits from free trade and mass immigration
Story: https://t.co/9ZmwsjzD9L
He's one of the weakest 'leaders' of note on the world stage now that Trudeau is retired, imho.
"We haven't benefitted from free trade which is why we need to negotiate for lower tariffs which will bring about even freer trade"
I don't follow the logic.
I don't follow the logic.
I think it's possible Trump applied such broad tariffs to mask the move against the countries he really wants to target. If he only went after a few countries then it's a direct attack on them and could illicit a harsher response.
I've done this with a group of employees. Instead of going after one employee I wanted to salvage and making them feel targeted, I might apply a new standard to the entire group to mask the real reason for implementing a change.
So instead of targeting China on the world stage, he targeted the world stage. Once he gets what he wants from China and maybe a few others he pulls back on everyone. And if we get a few better deals with others who come to the table then that's only a bonus.
Just a theory…
I've done this with a group of employees. Instead of going after one employee I wanted to salvage and making them feel targeted, I might apply a new standard to the entire group to mask the real reason for implementing a change.
So instead of targeting China on the world stage, he targeted the world stage. Once he gets what he wants from China and maybe a few others he pulls back on everyone. And if we get a few better deals with others who come to the table then that's only a bonus.
Just a theory…
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