Financial controls on dollars and treasuries they hold as we devalue.

will25u said:

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lexofer said:

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The entire chart is based off of a complete lie. "Tariffs Charged to the USA, Including Currency Manipulation and Trade Barriers" has absolutely nothing to do with the tariffs charged to the USA.

They are the percentage of trade deficit. (US Imports - US Exports)/(US Imports)

So for China ($401B - $131B) / $401B = 67%

It's not some complicated economic calculation, it's a very simplistic percentage of trade deficit and a lie to call it a tariff.

Posted this on the other thread, it has been confirmed by other news sources now.

DID I CRACK IT?

I think I figured out at least a chunk of the math.

It's trade deficit divided by their exports.

EU: exports 531.6, imports 333.4, deficit 198.2. 198.2/531.6 is 37, close to 39.

Israel: exports 22.2, imports 14.8, deficit 7.4. 7.4/22.2 is 33. https://t.co/urAVoCiPLV

— ☉rthonormalist🧭✡️ (@orthonormalist) April 2, 2025

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Not saying what your post said is what they did, but here is the actual website telling you how they supposedly did it. And the equation.

For more info: https://t.co/0avrWpgu5q

— Art (@HardcoreCap) April 3, 2025

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Thanks for the link.
quote from the article

• The failure of trade deficits to balance has many causes, with tariff and non-tariff economic fundamentals as major contributors. Regulatory barriers to American products, environmental reviews, differences in consumption tax rates, compliance hurdles and costs, currency manipulation and undervaluation all serve to deter American goods and keep trade balances distorted. As a result, U.S. consumer demand has been siphoned out of the U.S. economy into the global economy, leading to the closure of more than 90,000 American factories since 1997, and a decline in our manufacturing workforce of more than 6.6 million jobs, more than a third from its peak.

So the formula is taking in to account more than just the tariffs.

For example the insistence of our government to mandate climate change rhetoric like banning or regulating coal powered electric generation or labor laws compared to countries like China or India.

The formula doesn't take tariffs into account at all. As they have put in place it is just a function of trade deficit.

Edit to add; if you want to "steelman" the approach they're saying the only way you have a persistent trade imbalance is if you are cheating somehow. So a large trade deficit is defacto evidence of some kind of manipulation - therefore the trade imbalance itself is all you look at. I don't think that's necessarily true, or even right, but that is a way to see the argument.

AggieZUUL said:

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Larry S Ross said:

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Seriously77 said:

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At least the boomers will be as broke as everyone else.

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This boomer will be picking up quality stocks at cheaper prices.

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This is the way. If you're smart, you'll see that Billions trillions are being committed to investments in the U.S. because of this. Good on Trump to shake things up by leveling the playing field, which will encourage more manufacturing in the U.S. This is not a short term fix, it will take years but is the only path forward if we expect to survive as a sustainable superpower and not be held hostage on medicine, steel, oil, and semiconductors.

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nortex97 said:

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I agree. This chart is illustrative of the calculation/formula, anyway.

Flexport's team was able to reverse engineer the formula the Administration used to generate the "reciprocal tariffs."

It's quite simple, they took the trade deficit the US has with each country and divided it by our imports from that country.

The chart below shows the… pic.twitter.com/01bUpfKgk8

— Ryan Petersen (@typesfast) April 3, 2025

Vietnam I thought might cooperate 'enough' to avoid this but I guess not. Nike stock is a blood bath pre-market, fwiw, as they love their VN manufacturing.

Nike stock right now - the company has >450,000 employees across 130 factories in Vietnam (46% tariff rate) pic.twitter.com/9irIE3j5cW

— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) April 2, 2025

I haven't bought a nike product in over 10 years so whatever but I am surprised there isn't more automation than that in shoes/apparel at this point. 450,000? Wild.

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There goes the NIL program for the Oregon Ducks!

Another benefit, thx!

NAFTA was a generational failure for America, which USMCA or whatever has not remedied. Glad Trump is trying something different.

pic.twitter.com/FPN1323G2N

— Russ Read (@RussCanRead) April 3, 2025

Zobel said:

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The formula doesn't take tariffs into account at all. As they have put in place it is just a function of trade deficit.

Edit to add; if you want to "steelman" the approach they're saying the only way you have a persistent trade imbalance is if you are cheating somehow. So a large trade deficit is defacto evidence of some kind of manipulation - therefore the trade imbalance itself is all you look at. I don't think that's necessarily true, or even right, but that is a way to see the argument.

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Indirectly they do take into account tariffs. Tariffs imposed on our exports indirectly affect trade imbalances by making our exports more expensive.
I am not a macro economist but I can see what the formula is trying to account for trade imbalances. Will it work is the question. Seems to have caught the attention of some countries leaders as they are attempting to negotiate their tariffs.

Tariffs can be zero and the formula doesn't change.

Not all trade imbalances are because of tariffs or even protectionist policies.

will25u said:

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I am big picture money illiterate, so I enjoy the talk about this stuff because I know nothing about it.

📉 Since Trump took office in Jan 2025, the 10Y yield has quietly slipped from 4.79% to 4.17%.

The 2Y just broke lower to 3.77%—a big move with even bigger implications.

Lower yields mean cheaper refinancing. With $36.5T in debt and $9T coming due, this is a stealth balance… pic.twitter.com/pqCA5Dgmw6

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) April 3, 2025

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Key takeaway of this is that the market does not expect significant inflation from these tariffs, but would not be surprised if there is a temporary economic slow down that is significant enough that the Fed lowered rates sometime in 2026.

GarlandAg2012 said:

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I also don't think these tariffs will be implemented for very long, if at all, but what are we trying to negotiate exactly? Many of these countries do not actually have very high tariffs on the US. Is the idea to get their small tariffs to 0? If that is the goal, why lie so much? It sounds like basically it's just another way of saying "we want free trade" but it's wrapped up in isolationist/protectionist bs.

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This is pretty much not true.

Some of these countries don't have high tariffs on any US goods. Most of these countries have their pet industries that have very high tariffs. That is the target of these things, allegedly.

richardag said:

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AggieZUUL said:

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Larry S Ross said:

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Seriously77 said:

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At least the boomers will be as broke as everyone else.

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This boomer will be picking up quality stocks at cheaper prices.

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This is the way. If you're smart, you'll see that Billions trillions are being committed to investments in the U.S. because of this. Good on Trump to shake things up by leveling the playing field, which will encourage more manufacturing in the U.S. This is not a short term fix, it will take years but is the only path forward if we expect to survive as a sustainable superpower and not be held hostage on medicine, steel, oil, and semiconductors.

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richardag said:

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Zobel said:

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The formula doesn't take tariffs into account at all. As they have put in place it is just a function of trade deficit.

Edit to add; if you want to "steelman" the approach they're saying the only way you have a persistent trade imbalance is if you are cheating somehow. So a large trade deficit is defacto evidence of some kind of manipulation - therefore the trade imbalance itself is all you look at. I don't think that's necessarily true, or even right, but that is a way to see the argument.

---

Indirectly they do take into account tariffs. Tariffs imposed on our exports indirectly affect trade imbalances by making our exports more expensive.
I am not a macro economist but I can see what the formula is trying to account for trade imbalances. Will it work is the question. Seems to have caught the attention of some countries leaders as they are attempting to negotiate their tariffs.

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Trade imbalances itself are pretty stupid. The idea that a country with a fraction of our population is supposed to buy as much stuff from as we do from them is impossible.

What he should be trying to do is muscle the big guys who do have tariffs against us. The goal should be to drive exports, keep the demand for the US dollar strong.

Zobel said:

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bluestarforu.img

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Currently ^

aezmvp said:

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Part of the problem left by Biden is that to avoid higher debt payments on the sovereign debt they took expiring long term debt and put it in lower rate (ie cheaper) short term debt. Which means 2/3 or $20+ trillion in debt is due to be refinanced in the next 4 years. If the rates are still extremely high then servicing that debt will sink the budget and we will death spiral. We will have to massively increase taxes while cutting services or take out more debt that will further cause the costs to spiral because the new debt will be to service the old debt and to sell it will require higher rates (significantly higher probably) or we will have to massively, possibly hyper, inflate our currency to pay off the debt which basically makes everyone poor, destroys any non-tangible asset and crunches the bottom line for business and pay for workers. Generally there are only two ways out of hyper inflation, a massive depression or scrapping your currency (usually more than once) to stabilize it.

So long to short term debt swap is bad, we have to fix, this is part of that strategy. Trump has been on the Fed since before the election that rates would have to come down or else. Well the or else wasn't necessarily about replacing people or seizing the Fed, it was partly/mostly that the American economy would collapse from the painful and necessary refinance of our debt at levels that are too high.

So Trump is trying to stabilize the finance of our debt, stop the deficit spend bleeding and find alternative ways to clear some of that debt (eg the Gold Card).

It's just that a lot of people see the trees, or even the forest, and not the giant mountain behind them.

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This explanation makes the most sense to me, but way they are going about it is ham-fisted at best.

Trump is levying tariffs on penguins but giving his pal Vlad the Dictator a pass? Dear Lord. Can't wait to see the pretzeling needed to spin this into a reasonable course of action. Let's see it!

BusterAg said:

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will25u said:

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I am big picture money illiterate, so I enjoy the talk about this stuff because I know nothing about it.

📉 Since Trump took office in Jan 2025, the 10Y yield has quietly slipped from 4.79% to 4.17%.

The 2Y just broke lower to 3.77%—a big move with even bigger implications.

Lower yields mean cheaper refinancing. With $36.5T in debt and $9T coming due, this is a stealth balance… pic.twitter.com/pqCA5Dgmw6

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) April 3, 2025

---

Key takeaway of this is that the market does not expect significant inflation from these tariffs, but would not be surprised if there is a temporary economic slow down that is significant enough that the Fed lowered rates sometime in 2026.

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How low do you think they can get it…can it get to zero?

Kansas Kid said:

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He placed no additional tariffs on Cuba, Russia, North Korea, and Belarus yet hit Saint Pierre and Miquelon with a 50% tariff even though they have no tariffs on US imports. Can someone explain how this is a reciprocal tariff on Saint Pierre?

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/25060517.desert-islands-trump-declared-trade-war/

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How much do you think we trade and import per year with NK, Russia, and Cuba?

Seriously77 said:

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BusterAg said:

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will25u said:

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I am big picture money illiterate, so I enjoy the talk about this stuff because I know nothing about it.

📉 Since Trump took office in Jan 2025, the 10Y yield has quietly slipped from 4.79% to 4.17%.

The 2Y just broke lower to 3.77%—a big move with even bigger implications.

Lower yields mean cheaper refinancing. With $36.5T in debt and $9T coming due, this is a stealth balance… pic.twitter.com/pqCA5Dgmw6

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) April 3, 2025

---

Key takeaway of this is that the market does not expect significant inflation from these tariffs, but would not be surprised if there is a temporary economic slow down that is significant enough that the Fed lowered rates sometime in 2026.

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How low do you think they can get it…can it get to zero?

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Nope.

But my analysis of long term yields is that the market thinks that there is more of a possibility that they go lower than current rates than the market thought there was a month ago. That is my only observation in the post above.

Happy to hear arguments against that interpretation of the data.

mm98 said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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He placed no additional tariffs on Cuba, Russia, North Korea, and Belarus yet hit Saint Pierre and Miquelon with a 50% tariff even though they have no tariffs on US imports. Can someone explain how this is a reciprocal tariff on Saint Pierre?

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/25060517.desert-islands-trump-declared-trade-war/

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How much do you think we trade and import per year with NK, Russia, and Cuba?

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Do you think we trade more with Russia or with Norfolk Island? One of them was included in the tariff list.

mm98 said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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He placed no additional tariffs on Cuba, Russia, North Korea, and Belarus yet hit Saint Pierre and Miquelon with a 50% tariff even though they have no tariffs on US imports. Can someone explain how this is a reciprocal tariff on Saint Pierre?

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/25060517.desert-islands-trump-declared-trade-war/

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How much do you think we trade and import per year with NK, Russia, and Cuba?

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Russia was $3b last year. We hit some countries with trade as little as $3 million so are you going to tell me that Russia isn't significant?!?!

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/russia-and-eurasia/russia

Yes I know it's 3B. It's been declining each year since the war in Ukraine and will be less this year.

My point is rather than try to funnel everything back to Trump is a Russia sympathizer, reality is its just a ****ty EO

mm98 said:

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Yes I know it's 3B. It's been declining each year since the war in Ukraine and will be less this year.

My point is rather than try to funnel everything back to Trump is a Russia sympathizer, reality is its just a ****ty EO

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So why did he exempt Russia and essentially no other country or territory in the world? We have a sizable trade deficit based on the formula used in these "reciprocal" tariff formulas. They didn't even get the base 10% increase he hit countries with that don't have a trade surplus to the US.

ETA. I didn't say he was a Russian sympathizer. I just pointed out countries that didn't get hit with tariffs.

Cool. Trump isn't a Russian asset, he's just a colossal moron surrounded by incompetent lackeys.

TOUCHDOWN! said:

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Cool. Trump isn't a Russian asset, he's just a colossal moron surrounded by incompetent lackeys.

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He does do some moronic things. I don't disagree. The Russia asset is just stupid though. But you do you

Kansas Kid said:

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mm98 said:

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Yes I know it's 3B. It's been declining each year since the war in Ukraine and will be less this year.

My point is rather than try to funnel everything back to Trump is a Russia sympathizer, reality is its just a ****ty EO

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So why did he exempt Russia and essentially no other country or territory in the world? We have a sizable trade deficit based on the formula used in these "reciprocal" tariff formulas. They didn't even get the base 10% increase he hit countries with that don't have a trade surplus to the US.

ETA. I didn't say he was a Russian sympathizer. I just pointed out countries that didn't get hit with tariffs.

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Because Russia and North Korea are bat**** crazy and we're trying to end a war. It's a decision that can be made later, but Vlad and Kim Jong Un have their nukes on immediate standby. Cant poke the bear just yet.

Perfect time to invest in the market. Start buying.

With the tariffs being based on trade deficits, how does this work into the "Trump is just using tariffs as a negotiation tactic" argument? You can't really negotiate your trade deficit the same way you could negotiate actual tariffs...

I don't think anyone saw this coming.

Kansas Kid said:

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mm98 said:

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Yes I know it's 3B. It's been declining each year since the war in Ukraine and will be less this year.

My point is rather than try to funnel everything back to Trump is a Russia sympathizer, reality is its just a ****ty EO

---

So why did he exempt Russia and essentially no other country or territory in the world? We have a sizable trade deficit based on the formula used in these "reciprocal" tariff formulas. They didn't even get the base 10% increase he hit countries with that don't have a trade surplus to the US.

ETA. I didn't say he was a Russian sympathizer. I just pointed out countries that didn't get hit with tariffs.

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Tulsi doing work for her boss.

ChemAg15 said:

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With the tariffs being based on trade deficits, how does this work into the "Trump is just using tariffs as a negotiation tactic" argument? You can't really negotiate your trade deficit the same way you could negotiate actual tariffs...

I don't think anyone saw this coming.

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Because he's not trying to actually negotiate tariffs, he's trying to negotiate a devaluing of the dollar against foreign currency, lower borrowing costs but keep the USD as the global reserve currency.

The trade deficit thing is just a way to make the numbers as big as possible to bring people to the table quickly.

At least that's the document his economic adviser has put out.

Or he's insane and we are all screwed anyway. My money is these tariffs don't survive until Q3. The question is where do we land, and how inflationary is the outcome (which will depend on how FX markets move).

AggieZUUL said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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mm98 said:

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Yes I know it's 3B. It's been declining each year since the war in Ukraine and will be less this year.

My point is rather than try to funnel everything back to Trump is a Russia sympathizer, reality is its just a ****ty EO

---

So why did he exempt Russia and essentially no other country or territory in the world? We have a sizable trade deficit based on the formula used in these "reciprocal" tariff formulas. They didn't even get the base 10% increase he hit countries with that don't have a trade surplus to the US.

ETA. I didn't say he was a Russian sympathizer. I just pointed out countries that didn't get hit with tariffs.

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Because Russia and North Korea are bat**** crazy and we're trying to end a war. It's a decision that can be made later, but Vlad and Kim Jong Un have their nukes on immediate standby. Cant poke the bear just yet.

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Ok, so you think Trump exempted Russia from tariffs out of fear of being nuked by Putin and you believe Putin is "batsh/t crazy" but you also think Putin is reliable enough to negotiate an end to his invasion of Ukraine?

Call your congressperson and senators to stop these tariffs. It's going to cause stagflation and tank the economy. Republicans are going to lose bigly in 2028.

Kansas Kid said:

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mm98 said:

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Yes I know it's 3B. It's been declining each year since the war in Ukraine and will be less this year.

My point is rather than try to funnel everything back to Trump is a Russia sympathizer, reality is its just a ****ty EO

---

So why did he exempt Russia and essentially no other country or territory in the world? We have a sizable trade deficit based on the formula used in these "reciprocal" tariff formulas. They didn't even get the base 10% increase he hit countries with that don't have a trade surplus to the US.

ETA. I didn't say he was a Russian sympathizer. I just pointed out countries that didn't get hit with tariffs.

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He's just trolling the libs with this. They love that around here. What are they going to do ? Impeach him?

Would love to see some evidence that tariffs result in increased prices (consumption tax) for a world power consumer economy in modern global economics. And, it will need to be pre-covid.