BrazosDog02 said:

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Serotonin said:

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Martin Q. Blank said:

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Making alerts more complicated isn't the answer in my opinion.

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A number system is making it less complicated. The NWS gives a warning along with a wall of text written on a 19th century type writer. I need a tldr version.

Space City Weather has a flood scale in their forecast. It makes it easier to digest.
https://spacecityweather.com/the-space-city-weather-flood-scale/

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Yeah this is a great system for Houston. I always pay attention to it.

Having said that, Harris County is flat as a pancake and slowly slopes down into the ocean. Water spreads out and drains in an orderly way. Even with 50+ inches of rain during Harvey the majority of Houston didn't flood.

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And with all that fancy forecasting, warnings, notices, emails, calls, ...... People STILL ended up in their attics telling us "they didn't know".

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Yeah, I know one guy like that who is very smart but decided to do something very dumb and ride out Harvey in his house in Meyerland (wife and kids had left). He ended up walking through 1-2 feet of water in the middle of the night to a neighbors house (new house that was built 5 feet above elevation).

I think the biggest issue is warning fatigue.

I live in Arlington. They used to sound the sirens when a tornado was coming for your area.

Then they did the sirens across the whole city whenever a tornado was anywhere in the city - just to be safe.

Then they expanded it to really strong winds, since they're kinda like a tornado.

Then they expanded it to hail, since gee it can cause a lot of damage.

Now I don't pay any attention to the sirens.

yep, the one I was talking about was in grapevine. used to be super rare but now not so much.

now camps prob hyper vigilant, but random one off tourists.. no way.

For situational awareness...

Florida resources are on the way to help.

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They were prepared.

They had a disaster plan.

They executed the plan.

The water kept rising and overcame that plan.

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People have a hard time with this.

I live in a country neighborhood in central Texas 5 miles from the nearest true waterway (not a ditch). Yesterday between midnight and about 11 a.m., we got nearly 7 inches of rain. My neighborhood only has one entrance, and it became blocked at a low spot by 3-4 feet of water, so I could not leave home for a few hours.

Had the water come up 20 feet, it would have been apocalyptic. I have no plan for that. It is true that being on a river is different, but there is pretty much always a scenario that you aren't prepared for. When the water gets up to the high ground, then what? In a lot of ways, this disaster was a confluence of the worst ingredients, and a lot of people died. Not just kids at a camp, but plenty of adults, too.

California dispatched two USAR teams as well, TF-4 out of Oakland and TF-6 from Riverside. Mutual Aid ftw.

What time in the morning is it estimated the cabins were overwhelmed and people were washing away or being stranded in rafters? Wasn't that at 5 am? I have not sat down to really work it out.

4 am I think

fc2112 said:

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I think the biggest issue is warning fatigue.

I live in Arlington. They used to sound the sirens when a tornado was coming for your area.

Then they did the sirens across the whole city whenever a tornado was anywhere in the city - just to be safe.

Then they expanded it to really strong winds, since they're kinda like a tornado.

Then they expanded it to hail, since gee it can cause a lot of damage.

Now I don't pay any attention to the sirens.

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We get multiple warnings every month. People WOULD stop paying attention and there would be an outcry to turn it off.

The NOAA flood gauge for Hunt is here https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/hntt2, it's a few miles downstream from Camp Mystic. It shows the water beginning to rise approx 2am and peaking around 5am.

By 3am it was in minor/moderate flood, 4am it was at major flood level and peaked an hour later around 5am.

We get the monthly test siren and it only goes off if the area is under tornado warning. I guess different cities have different protocols.

nvm

Surely this number isn't correct.

In surprised theres even a number. I dont know how you could possibly account for who might have been there or who might be missing

Number jumped because family members reported missing. These are people NOT registered at hotels, motels, camps etc. per the governor.

robdoubleu said:

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The NOAA flood gauge for Hunt is here https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/hntt2, it's a few miles downstream from Camp Mystic. It shows the water beginning to rise approx 2am and peaking around 5am.

By 3am it was in minor/moderate flood, 4am it was at major flood level and peaked an hour later around 5am.

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That flood gauge is downstream of the confluence of the North and South Forks of the Guadalupe. Mystic was on the South Fork. I am not aware of a gauge upstream of Mystic on the South Fork.
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-08165500/#dataTypeId=continuous-00065--887047781&startDT=2025-07-03&endDT=2025-07-04

ETA- Topographic map
https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-ngqx51/Kerr-County/?zoom=18¢er=30.00934%2C-99.36955

nortex97 said:

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NWS union chief; 'Trump's right on NWS doing it's job in Texas.'

Some claimed they never received alerts.

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Fahy said, "The forecasters did their job. There [are] very few times when I'll be in a position that I have to agree with the President of the United States. When he spoke last night that the forecasters at the National Weather Service offices at San Angelo and San Antonio got the forecast right, the President said they did their job, and they did."

He added, "I saw one timeline from one of the forecast stations at 3:38. I realize that's only a 22 a 20-minute difference from 4:00, but, in this case, minutes count. The forecasters immediately saw what they had to do and issued a catastrophic alert, which triggered, of course, the flood emergency warning. That, of course, goes out onto the…weather emergency alert, that weather emergency alert is then disseminated via our warning infrastructure system that we share with FEMA, and then it broadcasts to all the state emergency communication channels."

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He references "Flash flood alley" as a name for this section of the Guadeloupe, and that NOAA installed the emergency transmitter for this area (after a 1987 flood here), which for folks with a 'NOAA emergency radio' (he describes in the video as a $50 mobile unit similar to a cell phone, used by campers/hikers) would have received these alerts. The weather emergency alerts though were integrated in 2006 under FEMA etc. changes, though. This is the first I've heard of most of these details.

He reports that the alerts were received in Travis County but apparently some issue with phones in Kerr County not getting them.

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Thanks for posting. It's upsetting to see the amount of comments on news outlet social media posts, videos, etc politicizing this. Scum behavior and at the top of that list is the child doctor from Houston

Who?mikejones! said:

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In surprised theres even a number. I dont know how you could possibly account for who might have been there or who might be missing

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When you call the hotline to report someone you can't contact and they were supposed to be in the area, they are researching each of those individuals. Once they are certain the last known place was along the Guadalupe, they are officially counted as missing. It takes time to do that research.

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When you call the hotline to report someone you can't contact and they were supposed to be in the area, they are researching each of those individuals. Once they are certain the last known place was along the Guadalupe, they are officially counted as missing. It takes time to do that research.

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Plus, license plates on submerged/damaged cars wherein no bodies remain. Tracing the plates. Trying to find the owner(s) and contacting family members for inquiries.

aggiedata said:

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Number jumped because family members reported missing. These are people NOT registered at hotels, motels, camps etc. per the governor.

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Once there was a bad flood on the river that runs downstream from Rocky Mountain NP and Estes Park, the Big Thompson. Lots of people killed and many homes destroyed. One guy had rented a cabin, and they found no trace of him. His name was put on a memorial somewhere.

Years later the guy was surprised to learn that he was missing and considered dead. He had arrived at the cabin late at night with his family, and they found it not to their liking. They went and found a hotel somewhere else. Then the flood happened, so they just went home.

He was reported missing by the owner of the cabin, but I guess nobody ever followed up fully.

WI-TF1 has deployed. Mentioned on another thread...if anyone needs help with media relations, please reach out. I can help

Both the Texas and North Carolina flooding events came with record-breaking precipitable water levels.

Global precipitable water, or the total amount of moisture in the atmosphere, has been at or near-record levels for the last three years.

How much is a global mean increase in… pic.twitter.com/8s0wGCfGRp

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) July 7, 2025

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Both the Texas and North Carolina flooding events came with record-breaking precipitable water levels.

Global precipitable water, or the total amount of moisture in the atmosphere, has been at or near-record levels for the last three years.

How much is a global mean increase in precipitable water contributing to individual events? It would certainly vary by region.

I think this is really important context to consider when comparing an event today to one decades ago.

Precipitable water is a popular metric used by meteorologists to understand how moisture-laden the atmosphere is and how much rain a storm is capable of dropping. Therefore, changes in precipitable water are highly relevant to weather forecasting.

The flooding events of the last few days would have been very serious with or without this thermodynamically-driven trend, but the trend may be tilting the odds toward higher amounts of rain, on average.

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Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haapai says hello again.

The amount of water it injected into the atmosphere in 2022 is going to take 5-10+ years to fall out.

It caused that massive heat wave we had a couple of years ago in Texas, and likely contributed to the flooding in the Hill Country. All of that water has to fall out somewhere.

88planoAg said:

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P.H. Dexippus said:

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Frankly, the problem for those sweet 9 year olds was not the lack of an iphone by their bed, or even notifications in general. The camp leadership was a aware of the danger and had begun evacuating some of the cabins to higher ground a couple of hours before peak intensity, if the initial reporting is correct. The problem was that the severity of the situation and water levels exceeded the expectations of the leaders in charge and the emergency evacuation plan that was in place. It appears they thought their campers were on high enough ground for the situation, until it was too late. I know emotions are high, but sadly, no number of calls from parents in the middle of the night passing along weather alerts would have changed things.

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They were prepared.

They had a disaster plan.

They executed the plan.

The water kept rising and overcame that plan.

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https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/08/us/camp-mystic-inspectors-texas-floods

The state completed the annual inspection of Camp Mystic on July 2

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The inspector with the Texas Department of State Health Services confirmed on July 2 that the Christian camp on the banks of the Guadalupe River had a state-mandated plan "for emergency shelter and for evacuation" in case of a disaster.

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fc2112 said:

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I think the biggest issue is warning fatigue.

I live in Arlington. They used to sound the sirens when a tornado was coming for your area.

Then they did the sirens across the whole city whenever a tornado was anywhere in the city - just to be safe.

Then they expanded it to really strong winds, since they're kinda like a tornado.

Then they expanded it to hail, since gee it can cause a lot of damage.

Now I don't pay any attention to the sirens.

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Kind of like Amber alerts.

swimmerbabe11 said:

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nothing happened to us and everyone was "annoyed" that we did "all that" "for nothing"

it only takes a few of those for people to stop following protocol or assuming drill or whatever.

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Yep.

Imagine the protocol and effort required to wake up 700 campers in the middle of the night and haul them up to high ground.

If you ABSOLUTELY KNEW a horrible, deadly flood was on its way, then of course it's worth it. But how many times would you go through all that if nothing happened the first few times? Especially given the dangers of trying to evacuate large numbers of people.

Sometimes things happen outside of human control.

I mean, a couple times a summer on average maybe?

EclipseAg said:

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swimmerbabe11 said:

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nothing happened to us and everyone was "annoyed" that we did "all that" "for nothing"

it only takes a few of those for people to stop following protocol or assuming drill or whatever.

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Yep.

Imagine the protocol and effort required to wake up 700 campers in the middle of the night and haul them up to high ground.

If you ABSOLUTELY KNEW a horrible, deadly flood was on its way, then of course it's worth it. But how many times would you go through all that if nothing happened the first few times? Especially given the dangers of trying to evacuate large numbers of people.

Sometimes things happen outside of human control.

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I've never been on a cruise, but I'm told the first thing you do after leaving port is a lifeboat drill (maybe on lines other than Carnival). Seems to me the camps could do the same thing the first night. Have a flash flood drill and learn where to flee to get to high ground. Or flee a wildfire as the case may be.

Who?mikejones! said:

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I mean, a couple times a summer on average maybe?

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My understanding is these camps turnover each week (or maybe two weeks). You would need to exercise this drill with every new batch of campers to get them familiar with. So for the counselors that's many times a summer.

Teslag said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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I mean, a couple times a summer on average maybe?

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My understanding is these camps turnover each week (or maybe two weeks). You would need to exercise this drill with every new batch of campers to get them familiar with. So for the counselors that's many times a summer.

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I don't know about the other camps, and I assume Mystic still does it this way, but they run 2 4-week terms and 1 2-week term.

torrid said:

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EclipseAg said:

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swimmerbabe11 said:

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nothing happened to us and everyone was "annoyed" that we did "all that" "for nothing"

it only takes a few of those for people to stop following protocol or assuming drill or whatever.

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Yep.

Imagine the protocol and effort required to wake up 700 campers in the middle of the night and haul them up to high ground.

If you ABSOLUTELY KNEW a horrible, deadly flood was on its way, then of course it's worth it. But how many times would you go through all that if nothing happened the first few times? Especially given the dangers of trying to evacuate large numbers of people.

Sometimes things happen outside of human control.

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I've never been on a cruise, but I'm told the first thing you do after leaving port is a lifeboat drill (maybe on lines other than Carnival). Seems to me the camps could do the same thing the first night. Have a flash flood drill and learn where to flee to get to high ground. Or flee a wildfire as the case may be.

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I am fairly sure a drill and practice will be part of the routine going forward. Along with notification improvements. Same reason there are fire drills at school (and on my job at times)

torrid said:

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EclipseAg said:

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swimmerbabe11 said:

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nothing happened to us and everyone was "annoyed" that we did "all that" "for nothing"

it only takes a few of those for people to stop following protocol or assuming drill or whatever.

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Yep.

Imagine the protocol and effort required to wake up 700 campers in the middle of the night and haul them up to high ground.

If you ABSOLUTELY KNEW a horrible, deadly flood was on its way, then of course it's worth it. But how many times would you go through all that if nothing happened the first few times? Especially given the dangers of trying to evacuate large numbers of people.

Sometimes things happen outside of human control.

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I've never been on a cruise, but I'm told the first thing you do after leaving port is a lifeboat drill (maybe on lines other than Carnival). Seems to me the camps could do the same thing the first night. Have a flash flood drill and learn where to flee to get to high ground. Or flee a wildfire as the case may be.

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I don't care how many drills you have, **** is gonna hit the fan when it's the middle of the night and there are scared kids and there is a 30 foot wall of water coming at you.

IIRC, the rec center the girls were "evacuating" to was the same elevation at the cabins with the missing girls.

Maybe I'm naive, but short of moving all 700 girls to a completely different location 12 hours earlier, I don't know what they could have done differently.

Sometimes disasters happen.

Teslag said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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I mean, a couple times a summer on average maybe?

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My understanding is these camps turnover each week (or maybe two weeks). You would need to exercise this drill with every new batch of campers to get them familiar with. So for the counselors that's many times a summer.

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I was a counselor. It just a part of the job. Not a big deal.

I cannot speak to Mystic or any of the effected camps. I can speak to mine- our evac route were the same to get to the community baths. Maybe 200-300 ft on a bordered gravel pathway. Its the same path to get to 99% of the camp facilities.

The problem at Camp Mystic is that they thought they were safe with their elevation. The cabins along the back of the camp had a hill they could scurry up. The four cabins in the middle - Wiggle, Giggle, Bubble, Twins - had nowhere to go because they had to cross the creek or river to get to higher ground. Wiggle & Giggle had A-frame roofs. Bubble & Twins did not.

But the approved evacuation plan had always been to leave Wiggle, Giggle, Bubble, and Twins in the cabins thinking it would be safe. Practicing it would have been useless in this situation.